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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » Poultry Sector

Poultry Sector

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121Poultry Sector  - Page 7 Empty Re: Poultry Sector Sun May 24, 2015 7:11 am

VALUEPICK


Expert
Expert
Egg prices surged to a record on Friday in global poultry market. Both meat and egg prices will stay high in 2015 and 2016. Listed Sri-Lankan poultry companies will have more opportunity in export market due to the latest development in global poultry market.  

122Poultry Sector  - Page 7 Empty Poultry Sector Tue Oct 27, 2015 11:28 am

rizan666


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
Experts in the forum, please advise what is going on with poultry sector so that all the members here will not panic and sell fearing it's dropping. What is the current situation that we are witnessing. Future is great for poultry.

123Poultry Sector  - Page 7 Empty Re: Poultry Sector Tue Oct 27, 2015 11:31 am

Shammi Dharshana


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@rizan666 wrote:Experts in the forum, please advise what is going on with poultry sector so that all the members here will not panic and sell fearing it's dropping. What is the current situation that we are witnessing. Future is great for poultry.
Wait next month,it will start next run

124Poultry Sector  - Page 7 Empty Re: Poultry Sector Tue Oct 27, 2015 12:41 pm

raider


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
WHO report summary - http://money.cnn.com/2015/10/26/news/red-meat-processed-cancer-world-health-organization/

Prima's Product line - http://www.prima.com.lk/data/ceylon_agro_industries/prima_chicken.html

Bairaha's Product line - http://www.bairaha.com/index.php?option=com_k2&view=itemlist&layout=category&task=category&id=1&Itemid=108&limitstart=0

It is evident that neither Prima nor Bairaha possess a strong processed meat product line thus, the contribution to total revenues and overall profits from these will be rather small.

Also, if the sales of sausages were to fall, it would be negligible in the face of ever growing sales of whole chicken and chicken parts through regional expansion and rising income levels across the country.

Moreover, the cost control efforts of the listed poultry companies as well the declining raw material prices are well in place to enhance the profit margins.

Further analysis would show that meat & egg consumption in the country is still at very low levels thus, much potential awaits these poultry companies ahead of the much anticipated "middle-income friendly" budget. 

Also, access to vehicle financing has become rather tight for much of lower middle income families. Therefore, any additional income could be expected to be spent on food, household appliances etc. where meat based products would take a prominent place.

So if anyone is panic selling, it would be your loss in a few more months.

125Poultry Sector  - Page 7 Empty Re: Poultry Sector Tue Oct 27, 2015 12:43 pm

raider


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Another worthwhile read, I suppose

- http://www.forbes.com/sites/alicegwalton/2015/10/26/red-and-processed-meats-tied-to-cancer-says-who/

126Poultry Sector  - Page 7 Empty Re: Poultry Sector Tue Oct 27, 2015 3:08 pm

peacockman


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
some links from RAIDER :

1.  WHO report summary - 
http://money.cnn.com/2015/10/26/news/red-meat-processed-cancer-world-health-organization/

2. Prima's Product line - http://www.prima.com.lk/data/ceylon_agro_industries/prima_chicken.html

3. Bairaha's Product line - 
http://www.bairaha.com/index.php?

4. 2nd post -
http://www.forbes.com/sites/alicegwalton/2015/10/26/red-and-processed-meats-tied-to-cancer-says-who

127Poultry Sector  - Page 7 Empty Re: Poultry Sector Tue Oct 27, 2015 7:45 pm

rizan666


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
BFL Profits to grow drastically with new projects already started and tax holiday for the next 7 years. Future is Good


Bairaha Farms PLC (BFP) has decided to collaborate in a new project to set up a large scale, state of theart commercial animal feed manufacturing factory together with raw materials procurement and modern post-harvest storage facilities. The joint venture known as Fortune Agro Industries (Pvt) Ltd (FAI) is promoted by another poultry producer namely Farms Pride (Pvt) Ltd., which is a partner of Bairaha Farms PLC in a company named, Fortune G-P Farms (Lanka) Ltd., FAI has already received the preliminary Letter of Approval from the Board of Investment wherein the 07 years Tax Holiday subject to implementation of the project within 24 months, is mentioned. Furthermore, FAI is entitled to import/purchase locally project related capital items free of Customs Duty during the stipulated project implementation period. However, the Agreement between the joint venture company FAI and the Board of Investment is yet to be signed.

The total estimated cost of the new joint venture FAI is around Rs.1.65BN, which includes Rs. 650 MN for working capital. Bairaha Farms PLC intends to take up around 45% share of the equity in this new venture which may take around 15-20 months to commence commercial operations. The investment of Bairaha Farms in the joint venture is subject to the company obtaining the necessary funds from financial institutions. Another 45% of the equity capital will be taken up by the promoters namely Farms Pride (Pvt) Ltd., and the remaining balance 10% of the equity capital is to be offered to a partner who could add value to the new joint venture. However, in the event a suitable party is not identified to offer the remaining 10% of shares, then it would be taken up equally by the two major shareholder namely Bairaha Farms PLC and Farms Pride (Pvt) Ltd.

Fortune G-P Farms (Lanka) Ltd enjoys nearly 50% market share of the broiler breeder parent chicks requirements of Sri Lanka. In other words, nearly 50% of the final broiler chicken meat produced and marketed in Sri Lanka originates from the grandparent farm and the hatchery of Fortune G-P Farms (Lanka) Ltd in the form of broiler breeder parent chicks from which broiler chicks are produced by a number of breeder farms and hatchery operators.

Once the above mentioned Feed Mill is in commercial operation, Bairaha Farms PLC would have a total vertically integrated poultry production operation.

Yakooth Naleem
Managing Director


http://www.bairaha.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=43&Itemid=109

128Poultry Sector  - Page 7 Empty Re: Poultry Sector Tue Oct 27, 2015 8:02 pm

Bull Master


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
rizan666,

Even though these shares are good and future is going to be good don't expect these three to run like a rocket. Still many holders are in profits than break even or loss situation. Even BFL reflects a strong technical sell at the moment on a/c of technical grounds.

If you have BFL keep hold on. If you are on profits and still wants to enjoy the profits sell BFL. This may and should slow down for couple of weeks or months for consolidation purpose. Then only we can expect a strong upward moment with the Dec results.

Hence nothing to worry.

129Poultry Sector  - Page 7 Empty Re: Poultry Sector Wed Oct 28, 2015 10:29 am

peacockman


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Bull Master wrote:rizan666,

Even though these shares are good and future is going to be good don't expect these three to run like a rocket. Still many holders are in profits than break even or loss situation. Even BFL reflects a strong technical sell at the moment on a/c of technical grounds.

If you have BFL keep hold on. If you are on profits and still wants to enjoy the profits sell BFL. This may and should slow down for couple of weeks or months for consolidation purpose. Then only we can expect a strong upward moment with the Dec results.

Hence nothing to worry.
We can hope for a Rally in these counters by next week.... Now they are building their base!

130Poultry Sector  - Page 7 Empty Re: Poultry Sector Wed Oct 28, 2015 11:43 am

rizan666


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
BAIRAHA FARMS - DIVIDEND ANNOUNCEMENT
BAIRAHA FARMS PLC 
Company ID: - BFL 
Date of Announcement: - 28.Oct.2015 
Rate of Dividend: - Rs.2.00 per share / Interim Dividend 
Financial Year: - 2015/2016 
XD: - 06.Nov.2015 
Payment: - 18.Nov.2015 
Share Transfer Book Open 

131Poultry Sector  - Page 7 Empty Re: Poultry Sector Wed Oct 28, 2015 11:49 am

raider


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
I was expecting this!

BFL had cash to pay Rs. 10 so we can look forward to more interim dividends as well.

132Poultry Sector  - Page 7 Empty Re: Poultry Sector Thu Oct 29, 2015 10:24 am

BvsB

BvsB
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
TAFL will lead the sector from now onward...

TAFL will release the report today / tomorrow...  cheers

133Poultry Sector  - Page 7 Empty Re: Poultry Sector Thu Oct 29, 2015 12:08 pm

EPS

EPS
Expert
Expert
@BvsB wrote:TAFL will lead the sector from now onward...

TAFL will release the report today / tomorrow...  cheers


Yes. seems TAFL will going to report good report. bit heat now.

134Poultry Sector  - Page 7 Empty Re: Poultry Sector Sat Feb 13, 2016 7:54 am

VALUEPICK

VALUEPICK
Expert
Expert
Finally, it is time to study their trend.
 
Yes. We can expect something from them. When compare with some other global poultry stocks, Sri-Lankan poultry stocks are massively undervalued.
 
One of the Global trends in global stock market is creating strong demand for poultry stocks and active trading on them during this turbulent period. They are appreciating faster than broader market on huge volume.  They were inactive during third quarter of 2015. On top that panic January selling and flue panic created another great opportunity this time in one of the safe havens (chicken stocks). Only intelligent investors and analysts had some idea about their major uptrend. Their major uptrend is still intact mainly due to earnings outlook in 2016/17 and due to food related consumer stocks.

http://blog.elevateresearch.com/chicken-or-beef-trends-in-fast-casual-food-sales
 
Chicken or Beef? Trends in Restaurant Sales

135Poultry Sector  - Page 7 Empty Re: Poultry Sector Mon Apr 04, 2016 2:27 pm

EquityChamp

EquityChamp
Moderator
Moderator
Some positive trend is developing for TAFL,GRAN & BFL. Days ahead could be interesting to watch.

136Poultry Sector  - Page 7 Empty Sri Lanka poultry industry - Then and Now Thu May 26, 2016 8:26 am

EquityChamp

EquityChamp
Moderator
Moderator
I thought it is good to provide some analysis on the poultry industry of Sri Lanka due to several reasons.
- Stellar performance of companies have not reflected in the respective market valuations
- Investors who were previously positive on these stocks are now recommending to exit
- Investors invested on this industry stocks are now worrying because of stagnation of the stock prices
- Some are highlighting the risk of bird flue on the industry.

Well I will start my analysis from the per capita chicken consumption trend of Sri Lanka as shown below.
 2011201220132014
Per capita chicken consumption (kg)5.66.87.17.2
As you can clearly see it has been a remarkable growth and I estimate the per capita consumption to be 7.5 kg in 2015. Is this growth sustainable in the years to come, and I would say yes. Why is because the prices of substitutes such as fish, pork and beef are well ahead of a kilo of chicken and also the ethical issues associated with beef and pork consumption will restrict shifting the demand from chicken to other meet.
Then what if bird flue comes? Historically bird flue was a risk we have discussed from world risk analysis but never been hit by the Sri Lanka to date. If the world risk scenario is active again then as a precaution consumers in Sri Lanka might tend to reduce the consumption but how long it will prevail. Maximum would be few months so the impact for companies in this industry is for one quarter. This can not hurt the long term growth charts.

Ok now I'll talk a little bit on our three main poultry companies focusing on their balance sheets. You can refer for details in below table.
 TAFLGRANBFL
 20152011201520112015/162011/12
Revenue mn         2,089          1,288          13,741          10,480          3,890          2,792
Total assets mn         2,140          2,209            6,976            5,396          3,674          2,042
Equity mn         1,634             760            4,493            2,888          2,645          1,574
Debt mn               14          1,278            1,455            1,961 595130
Net Operating cashflow mn            692             584            2,805                715             606             350
Asset turnover             1.0              0.6                 2.0                 1.9              1.1              1.4
Debt/Equity             0.0              1.7                 0.3                 0.7              0.2              0.1
Cashflow/share Rs               29                25                  47                  12                38                22
I attempted to compare how these 3 companies were doing in 2011 where we saw a major poultry stock rally and now where we saw a weakened rally. Look at how these 3 companies grew their equity base. Look at how these three companies grew their cashflow per share which is remarkable. And look at how these companies have increased the asset utilization efficiencies over the period. Except for BFL both GRAN & TAFL has reduced the gearing substantially. Out of these three TAFL seems to me the top company. All three companies are much stronger now than they were before in 2011.
.
Ok the next question is why the share prices are so depressed then. I explain this is a result of purposeful act of some group of people to depress the sentiment and grab as much quantity as possible at lowest possible price spreading all the negative news such as what happened in 2010/11 period, bird flue impact, selling pressure of major shareholders etc. They know in very short period of time these stocks can produce extra ordinary profits so the amount they collect at lower price will going to earn them the huge wealth. I assume they have used the selling intention of GRAN major shareholder here as a weapon to depress the market sentiment. I guess they have already got a buyer for this quantity but they purposefully delaying the transaction till they have collected the desired quantity at low prices. They know when the retailors feel that a huge seller is awaiting to sell in the market and so any time he will dump onto their heads. This fear monger has been managed very effectively by the group behind in this strategy.

So in the final analysis they will try their best to keep these stocks depressed as long as they can and collect them at very low and then they will let happen the quantity of GRAN deal and then everybody will be surprised the stock prices of these three within one month period.

I have written this for the investors who hold them as well as for the investors who are scared of establishing positions in these stocks.

Good luck

137Poultry Sector  - Page 7 Empty Re: Poultry Sector Thu May 26, 2016 12:29 pm

VALUEPICK

VALUEPICK
Expert
Expert
Thank you for your time and great analysis. There are more things to learn on emerging industries in the coming decade. Demographic changes such as growing population, growing middle class and aging population   in Asian and African regions will create lot of demand for boring things in the coming decade.

138Poultry Sector  - Page 7 Empty Re: Poultry Sector Thu May 26, 2016 12:43 pm

Brinthan

Brinthan
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Good post EC Sir...

139Poultry Sector  - Page 7 Empty Re: Poultry Sector Thu May 26, 2016 2:17 pm

worthiness


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@EC
What numbers taken into consideration for debt/equity ratio as of 31 Dec.2015.

140Poultry Sector  - Page 7 Empty Re: Poultry Sector Thu May 26, 2016 2:22 pm

EquityChamp

EquityChamp
Moderator
Moderator
@worthiness wrote:@EC
What numbers taken into consideration for debt/equity ratio as of 31 Dec.2015.

Equity you can see. Debt = interest bearing short-term & long-term borrowings + amounts borrowed from related companies

141Poultry Sector  - Page 7 Empty Re: Poultry Sector Thu May 26, 2016 4:25 pm

worthiness


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Being the leverage measure total liabilities to equity represents how total obligations are met by equity or net assets. accordingly based on 2015 year end data BFL,GRAN,TAFL count 38.9%,35.6% & 31% respectively. Please comments. Thx

142Poultry Sector  - Page 7 Empty Re: Poultry Sector Thu May 26, 2016 5:17 pm

EquityChamp

EquityChamp
Moderator
Moderator
You have to net-off CL and CA because they are represents the working capital which is short term. Equity and borrowings are more towards mapped with longer term.

143Poultry Sector  - Page 7 Empty Re: Poultry Sector Mon Jun 06, 2016 11:54 am

EquityChamp

EquityChamp
Moderator
Moderator
Suppression of poultry sector stocks continue. It is clear that someone has check-mated TAFL rise today by putting big sell orders @129. So option is to buy little bit when price is in red zone.

144Poultry Sector  - Page 7 Empty Re: Poultry Sector Mon Jun 06, 2016 12:12 pm

kassachandimal


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Yes. TAFL Good to collect at these levels. I dont think TAFL will go down below 127.

145Poultry Sector  - Page 7 Empty Re: Poultry Sector Tue Dec 06, 2016 10:33 am

jehovah

jehovah
Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
lol!

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