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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » CORPORATE CHRONICLE™ » World Stock Markets Moving Up

World Stock Markets Moving Up

+3
EquityChamp
prabath
Gainer
7 posters

Go down  Message [Page 1 of 1]

1World Stock Markets Moving Up Empty World Stock Markets Moving Up Mon Feb 15, 2016 9:47 am

Gainer

Gainer
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics

World Stock Markets Moving Up,  Nikkei 941 points up  alien cheers

Indian Stock Market 355 points up  alien cheers

http://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/global-indices/

2World Stock Markets Moving Up Empty Re: World Stock Markets Moving Up Mon Feb 15, 2016 10:54 am

Gainer

Gainer
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics

Now Nikkei 1110 points up



Last edited by Gainer on Mon Feb 15, 2016 11:31 am; edited 1 time in total

3World Stock Markets Moving Up Empty Re: World Stock Markets Moving Up Mon Feb 15, 2016 11:25 am

prabath


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

api mee wenasata garu karamu,Nikkie up 7% Topix 8% but CSE crashing.next week policy review.

4World Stock Markets Moving Up Empty Re: World Stock Markets Moving Up Tue Feb 16, 2016 2:50 am

Gainer

Gainer
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics

Every where Green Stock markets alien alien alien

5World Stock Markets Moving Up Empty Re: World Stock Markets Moving Up Tue Feb 16, 2016 5:40 am

prabath


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

Gainer wrote:Every where Green Stock markets alien alien alien  
Except Sri Lanka. Shocked Sad

6World Stock Markets Moving Up Empty Re: World Stock Markets Moving Up Tue Feb 16, 2016 7:42 am

EquityChamp

EquityChamp
Moderator
Moderator

It is true that Sri Lanka stock market has underperformed so far. But we need to analyse the underlying cause for that and also for the decline in world stock markets.

Investors have overreacted to the news that China is slowing down. The main cause for the world stock market crash. if you carefully analyse the situation Chinese stock market has achieved unprecedented growth rate during the last few years similar to the growth experience by CSE during 2009 and 2010. We all know that when such a growth happened the next is market correction for another few years and then the resumption of trend to test the all time highs again. Remember China's growth rate is only slowing down but not the economy is going down. I think most of the investors globally are slowly repositioning their stance hence we will see a gradual recovery all over the world. Further Brazil, Russia and India too witnessed a decline in growth rates together with US but the most of the panic created by China news.

On the other hand the continues decline in world oil prices have put the OPEC countries and other oil producing nations in big trouble so that their stock markets and stock prices have got affected which is unavoidable.

The other concern was the US rate hike. Yes they have increased the rates very marginally in last December but the Fed has voiced that further increase will not happen for the near term given the health of world financial markets.

So now Sri Lanka. Why the ASPI is in south ways. Is it sustainable? Should we all wait and see to reach that to 5800 or even lower than that to collect valuable counters? Is our currency going to depreciate towards 150-152 by the year end? Will our corporate results be impacted by the uncertain macro economic variables? Will the foreigners continue to sell down their holdings? These are the issue we all were discussing and that's why the ASPI is at 6270 from above 7000. So as at today what is our situation.
- Foreign reserves have stabilized somewhat
- IMF assistance is on the cards despite its conditions for fiscal discipline
- Foreign exchange rates are almost the same as the year beginning
- The continuous decline in oil prices will assist to cushion BoP deficit and will ensure the country have a stable energy related cost structure which is minimising the risks on manufacturing side because energy cost is one of the key input costs in their cost structure
- Foreign selling seems to be almost dried up and we can see some selective foreign buying as well
- Government has decided to accept China as the main investment partner and all are set to resume projects on hold as well as new projects (although this has to be done during Q2 of last year but it is better even start late than not start at all)
- Central bank is seen comfortable with current interest rate levels and the inflation still hitting lower single digit level ( we had couple of months of deflation as well in last quarter)
- Most of the corporate results released so far are exceptional and the QoQ consolidated growth in earnings is estimated to be 10% to 15% 

So the golden question to answer is will ASPI should come down to 6100 by end February and to 5800 by end of March and to be remain lacklustre till June and so on. This will be entirely depending on our perception. If we continue to worry on exchange rate, interest rate, world market sentiment, foreign activity, etc then sure you will have your red days not in small quantities but in mega style. If you think that market has reacted enough then you will come to see that there are lot of undervalued counters in the market and you will slowly establish positions. If that is the case you will see the ASPI of 6400 by February end, 6750 by March and gradually recovering to 7000 by Q2.

Remember the golden rule that stock market is based on crowed behaviour. If the majority decides it should be green then it definitely will and otherwise vies versa.  

My personal view is that Sri Lanka stock market has reacted too much for the negative news similar to China but China is coming from an era of 100%+ continuous growth but Sri Lanka index is yet to reach the all time highs establish in 2011 yet the consolidated corporate earnings have grown considerably from 2011 levels.

I wrote this to think by all of you not for a while but for sessions.

Thanks

7World Stock Markets Moving Up Empty Re: World Stock Markets Moving Up Tue Feb 16, 2016 8:42 am

visvajith


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic

Very good post EquityChamp I always read your post.

8World Stock Markets Moving Up Empty Re: World Stock Markets Moving Up Tue Feb 16, 2016 9:50 am

Chanuka_CJ


Stock Trader

Yep. there is no foriegn buying atm.. its all foreign outflow from the market too. what usually happen is when the market is coming down Foreigners buy and backs the market. with global markets coming down they try to quite from emerging markets. so market reacting to lot of negativeness now doesn't react to positive things popping up....
We all havr to wait abit till the govt find a solution for the internal issues meanwhile foreign markets will recover slowly..

Last few days foreign markets recovered.. and today too...

9World Stock Markets Moving Up Empty Re: World Stock Markets Moving Up Tue Feb 16, 2016 10:08 am

VALUEPICK

VALUEPICK
Expert
Expert

We should analyse trend, growth areas in the economy, emerging industries, mega trend and demographic changes to find out some valuable hidden, value and growth gems in the market according to our strategy.
 
Unlike in the past we didn’t have meaningful bull market during last three years to four years. Time to time, we saw some stocks oriented uptrend in 2014 and 2015.  Surprisingly, we never saw small, mid or large cap rally in the market during last three years except for few large, mid and small cap uptrend.
 
In a broader bull market many stocks will go up.  After sell off we are seeing  some attractive valuations in some promising stocks now.  
 
Short Term versus Long Term Investing
 
Both strategies have benefits and drawbacks.
 
Short term investing generally refers to holding any particular investment for less than one year.
 
Day traders will hold investment for less than one day.
 
Long term investors will often hold an investment for five, ten or even twenty to thirty years at a time.
 
Some Professional traders use very advanced technical analysis to predict trends.
 
Long term investors incur much fewer trading fees. Short term traders see long term investing as boring.

10World Stock Markets Moving Up Empty Re: World Stock Markets Moving Up Thu Feb 18, 2016 10:19 am

Gainer

Gainer
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics

World stocks markets moving up every day

http://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/global-indices/

11World Stock Markets Moving Up Empty Re: World Stock Markets Moving Up Thu Feb 18, 2016 3:26 pm

ranferdi

ranferdi
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

Gainer wrote:World stocks markets moving up every day

http://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/global-indices/

Hope colombo will join soon.

http://::::THIS EMAIL DOESNT WORK.. PLEASE CONTACT ME ON FB ACCO

12World Stock Markets Moving Up Empty Re: World Stock Markets Moving Up Thu Feb 18, 2016 10:56 pm

VALUEPICK

VALUEPICK
Expert
Expert

For some reasons IMF Packages, maintaining interest rates,( still many countries prefer to keep very low interest rates),bond-buying program , credit packages, and government bailouts etc have become parts of world economy now.
 
Markets are mainly depending on the investor activities. Once bull market form it can go up despite short term factors. Eg: Pakistan Market. Still they are getting IMF bailouts. They had one of the longest bull markets in the world after getting IMF package.
 
At Different time different market has its own personality. Sri-Lanka was having sector and stocks oriented bull markets during last two years. Still we didn’t see final stages of bull market except for first half of bull market limited to some stocks. For example we never saw small, mid and large cap rally in the market yet. In other word we didn’t see broader bull market.
 
It is better to stay with individual winning stocks and industries having positive outlook not only in the coming financial year but also in the coming years.

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