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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » CORPORATE CHRONICLE™ » Bad news guys

Bad news guys

+13
CSE VIJAY
Jeremy
Jana
worthiness
hotstock
Avon
samaritan
Joe007
nalinrperera
Ryan Hudson
Brinthan
Gainer
jayathu
17 posters

Go to page : 1, 2  Next

Go down  Message [Page 1 of 2]

1Bad news guys Empty Bad news guys Fri Feb 19, 2016 7:58 pm

jayathu


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

http://www.economynext.com/Sri_Lanka_raises_policy_rates_50bp-3-4297-1.html

2Bad news guys Empty Re: Bad news guys Fri Feb 19, 2016 9:26 pm

Gainer

Gainer
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics

Behind this Good News that'swhy today market up by ASI 41 points

Already last week every one know this news and this old news

3Bad news guys Empty Re: Bad news guys Fri Feb 19, 2016 9:31 pm

jayathu


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

Gainer you're an idiot, even today newspaper FT reported that most probably CB will keep rates steady.

You wanna bet that market will be green on Tuesday, if mkt is green I'll stop posting on this forum. If it's red gainer pls stop posting stupid stuff.

4Bad news guys Empty Re: Bad news guys Fri Feb 19, 2016 10:01 pm

Brinthan

Brinthan
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

Jayathu...
Gainer post his own ideas and own analysis to this forum ...he has his own freedom to post his ideas...this forum is democratic forum..Any one can post...

We have own knowledge to sepearate what is correct and what is wrong...get good things from gainer...and don't care about if u thing it is wrong...and reply your view politly it is wrong..

Gainer
Please check 2nd time ...How ur posting effect to others...Because this is the forum use by many more share traders...and they make their decisions with the help of this forum...

5Bad news guys Empty Re: Bad news guys Fri Feb 19, 2016 10:21 pm

Ryan Hudson


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

Gainer is right eventhough it is not old news everybody new it, but 50 bp is less than investors thought, in that case this is good news

6Bad news guys Empty Re: Bad news guys Fri Feb 19, 2016 11:43 pm

nalinrperera


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic

Yanne kohida malle pol
One time Ravi says interest rates are binded with inflation.
If that so interest rates should be at low level for considerable period of time.
Last months inflation picked up due to appriciation of USD.
But USD is now at stable at 144.
I also did vote for yahapalanaya, but they seems doing noting and only imitating what American Federal doing.
I am fully mess up with Idiot Rk.
India other hand maintaing low interest rates with low commodity prices.

7Bad news guys Empty Re: Bad news guys Sat Feb 20, 2016 1:33 am

Joe007


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

Dear JAYATHU,
It is true that interest rate hike is not a good news for stock market at any time. Now interest rates are going up continuously which shows the economic instability clearly due the lack of funds available in the local and also deteriorating reserves at central bank.

The system of interest rate hike is going other side when comparing developed countries. There they increase the rate to increase the inflation. When they see the possibility of deflation they never increase also think about reducing furthermore to allow the money to flow effectively in the local economy.
But in Srilanka , interest rate hike is going upside down due th many reasons.
1) previous government's projects with no return. Such as property investment happened in Spain in a big scale.
2) too much debt for the country. So central bank have no option.
3) too much corruption and very hard to recover stolen funds from politicians like a tradition.
4) no investor confidence and SGT was a wrong idea and unacceptable. See CTC has affected very very badly specially its NAV.
5) unable to cut down imports and increase exports
6) unable to maintain the purchasing power of rupees. Normally it is good to bring down the currency to bring foreign investment , increase in exports and cut down of imports. But instability of rupees continuously make everyone stay away to avoid losses for just brining the funds into the country.
7) Srilanka economic market is very small and when comparing devaluation of rupees is too much. We can't expect too much foreign funds into the small economic market and we are still struggling.
Cool central bank's reserves are deteriorating and make everyone anxious about default. Eg - Greek Crisis.
Manymore reasons to write..

My opinion to improve
------------------------------
1) must privatise any loss making enterprises without affecting the national security.
2) must bring quick and serious judgement for those who involved corruption with the help of international to bring the country corruption free and confidence.
3) should stop any projects which are not going to give us short or medium term until economic conditions improve.
4) there are lots of corruption involved in the export and it should be tackled.
5) must bring tight law to cut down imports without any questions. See all parliamentarians want tax free permits to import vehicles. Very bad example to the nation and very selfish.
7) government should go for low interest loan to pay off higher interest loan taken by the previous government. There was a massive fraud and commission earned illegally from previous government.
Cool must lease some of its land or properties to foreign investment and must not sell free hold. They had been sold free hold many times.
9) if they can try atleast there will be a improvement then we can go next step....

If they don't improve
--------------------------
1) most investors will exit in the stock market regardless of any performance of companies. Imagine what will happen if there is a real problem in the country's economy???? I don't want to say that.... Example- Greek stock market.
2) most investors will move their wealth to safer investment due to the rate hike of interest and walk away stock market. If this happens, there will be difficult to sell our stock like now due to the lack of buyers. Then think what will happen?????
3) even investment in the financial system is also involved risk if there is a economic crisis. Also their guarantee for deposits are very low. So most people will move for safe haven investment.
4) most people don't understand that the stock market is the back bone of the country's economy. Also stock market is showing the healthy of any country's economy. Most people think that stock market is like horse race or casino in the gambling.

That is the reason the stock market is affected all the times if there is any news locally or internationally because it the back bone of the country's economy. in other way that stock market is the victim of country's economy because it is representing the country's economy.

Conclusion
---------------
As JAYATHU said,
Interest rate hike is like a cancer for country like Srilanka whether you accept it or not. The death is confirmed but don't know when.

8Bad news guys Empty Re: Bad news guys Sat Feb 20, 2016 7:57 am

Brinthan

Brinthan
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

Good post joe007....hats off...

9Bad news guys Empty Re: Bad news guys Sat Feb 20, 2016 8:35 am

jayathu


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

http://www.economynext.com/Sri_Lanka_raises_policy_rates_50bp_citing_credit_and_money_growth-3-4297-1.html

10Bad news guys Empty Re: Bad news guys Sat Feb 20, 2016 12:45 pm

samaritan


Moderator
Moderator

Ryan Hudson wrote:Gainer is right eventhough it is not old news everybody new it, but 50 bp is less than investors thought, in that case this is good news

Agree. In my opinion some desperately want the market to decline by blowing things out of proportion to create panic and benefit from it. The typical character of Vultures, and at times getting hostile as well.

Its only a matter of time for one or two big funds to come in which in turn will change the whole scenario. 50 bp hike is not what is going to decide the fate of the CSE. We all can see that the govt is also working towards this end in spite of the global issues. And there are strong signals to have the rupee stabilized within a month or two. We may not have to wait too long to witness rate cuts. 

Once the mega development projects take off one can anticipate foreign fund inflows. MTD Walkers responding in connection with their Quarterly Report have clearly stated that they expect the construction industry to drive economic growth in SL (quote: 'Mirror Business' of today).  I recall the Chinese Ambassador in Colombo who stated that Sri Lanka has only to attract 1% of their out bound tourists and obtain just 1% of their FDI for a year in order to achieve its target. PM is also to visit China very soon. Its amazing for one to know the Chinese FDIs that had flown into Pakistan in recent years. We are not late!

In the back drop of these developments, we can be identified as a 'bright spot' for investments.
Patience is the answer and certainly not for too long.

11Bad news guys Empty Re: Bad news guys Sat Feb 20, 2016 3:51 pm

Avon


Stock Analytic
Stock Analytic

Sri Lanka interest rates have always been on the high side but the stock market has had its share of bull runs. The standing deposit facility rate after the 50 bps is at 6.5%. Compare this with interest rates of the past and look at the stock market performance -
2003 - 8%
2004/5 - 7%
2006 - 8.5%
2007/8/9 - 10.5%

Stock market performance
2003 Jan - ASI 814 points, Sept 30 2003 1292 points, about 59% return

2004 Jan - ASI 1062 points, Dec 30 2004 1506 points, about 42% return

2005 Jan - ASI 1506 points, Sept 30 2005 2434 points, about  60% return

With interest rates being higher and the risk of investing in the stock market naturally being much greater in 2003/4/5 due to the war, how did the market give positive returns.

Interest rates are not the only factor for the stock market performance. When the development projects start, and an IMF facility is obtained, the stock market will boom and all those who are spreading negativity would have achieved their goals, unfortunately at the expense of other small investors who are unable to face the current situation.

12Bad news guys Empty Re: Bad news guys Sat Feb 20, 2016 5:40 pm

Gainer

Gainer
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics

Avon wrote:Sri Lanka interest rates have always been on the high side but the stock market has had its share of bull runs. The standing deposit facility rate after the 50 bps is at 6.5%. Compare this with interest rates of the past and look at the stock market performance -
2003 - 8%
2004/5 - 7%
2006 - 8.5%
2007/8/9 - 10.5%

Stock market performance
2003 Jan - ASI 814 points, Sept 30 2003 1292 points, about 59% return

2004 Jan - ASI 1062 points, Dec 30 2004 1506 points, about 42% return

2005 Jan - ASI 1506 points, Sept 30 2005 2434 points, about  60% return

With interest rates being higher and the risk of investing in the stock market naturally being much greater in 2003/4/5 due to the war, how did the market give positive returns.

Interest rates are not the only factor for the stock market performance. When the development projects start, and an IMF facility is obtained, the stock market will boom and all those who are spreading negativity would have achieved their goals, unfortunately at the expense of other small investors who are unable to face the current situation.

Yes Good point and Great work .

13Bad news guys Empty Re: Bad news guys Sat Feb 20, 2016 5:52 pm

hotstock


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

I DONT think this news will make any huge impact to the market except some panic sales here and there, reasons being

1) We have a news-driven market and it's already reacted
2) Buying pressure for most of the key stocks
3) In the past unchanged rate news did not make any impact to the on-going momentum and vice versa
4) Investers look for economic direction and political stability (which is already implied in ASI)

14Bad news guys Empty Re: Bad news guys Sat Feb 20, 2016 6:06 pm

Brinthan

Brinthan
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

Guys...We have to wait until tuesday to get the view how interest rate decision impact to market...If it is GREEN on tuesday...we can expect more and more ..... Very Happy If it is RED on tuesday ...we can expect more and more...Sad

15Bad news guys Empty Re: Bad news guys Sat Feb 20, 2016 6:36 pm

Gainer

Gainer
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics

Every one Keep in mind "Now No War in the Country" Growth Momentum and fastest growing economies.

16Bad news guys Empty Re: Bad news guys Sat Feb 20, 2016 6:38 pm

Avon


Stock Analytic
Stock Analytic

No one can predict the market, it could turn out to be red the whole of next week. However the market at this stage has already reacted to most of the negative news and there is more possibility for upside than down. On March 1 2009 the asi rose from 1694 points to reach a high of 7863 on Feb 1, 2011. That is a climb of about 6169 points, it then shed about 3060 points to end at 4803 points which is about a 50% drop. We are now almost at the same situation where the asi has lost about 50% of its gain from the low of 4803. We may lose another 100 points to end at 6150 but that could be the lowest.

17Bad news guys Empty Re: Bad news guys Sat Feb 20, 2016 8:10 pm

worthiness


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

Good exposure of individual views that demonstrates both theoretical & practical state of affairs related to market trend. No precise or decisive factor could be emphasized as it is made by combining different ingredients.

Plummeting index level does not mean the end of equity market. As said, news driven market to achieve freaky gains always make the current situation worsened. Most likely market turnaround could be expected by the second quarter of the financial year had not occur unexpected grievous events.  

18Bad news guys Empty Re: Bad news guys Sun Feb 21, 2016 4:09 pm

Jana

Jana
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

50 bp means interest rate up by 0.5% so it doesn't effect so much ...

any how If the IMF fund authorized or released then Market will get boom..

President's German visit also positive for the country.

investors like to enter this level ..it shows last friday so market positive to go on GREEN few days...

so many stocks in this level we can enter with out any doubt..

19Bad news guys Empty Re: Bad news guys Sun Feb 21, 2016 10:30 pm

Jeremy

Jeremy
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

Gainer wrote:Every one Keep in mind "Now No War in the Country" Growth Momentum and fastest growing economies.

There is ISIS, low crude oil prices, CHINA meltdown.. Sri Lanka seems to have drifted towards disaster during the tsunami. How deep is ASI. 5300 seem not possible.

20Bad news guys Empty Re: Bad news guys Sun Feb 21, 2016 10:47 pm

Brinthan

Brinthan
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

GMNet wrote:
Gainer wrote:Every one Keep in mind "Now No War in the Country" Growth Momentum and fastest growing economies.

There is ISIS, low crude oil prices, CHINA meltdown.. Sri Lanka seems to have drifted towards disaster during the tsunami. How deep is ASI. 5300 seem not possible.
Yes...Srilankan stock market is not only 100% depend to Srilankan economy...Only 50 %..it is depend to srilankan economy...25%...depend to world market..balance 15% depend to economic condition in southasian countries..and balance 10% depend to total asian economic situation.....

21Bad news guys Empty Re: Bad news guys Mon Feb 22, 2016 12:17 am

Gainer

Gainer
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics

Already market came down from last one year 20% and this is the bottom.

22Bad news guys Empty Re: Bad news guys Mon Feb 22, 2016 12:31 am

Jana

Jana
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

Brinthan wrote:
GMNet wrote:
Gainer wrote:Every one Keep in mind "Now No War in the Country" Growth Momentum and fastest growing economies.

There is ISIS, low crude oil prices, CHINA meltdown.. Sri Lanka seems to have drifted towards disaster during the tsunami. How deep is ASI. 5300 seem not possible.
Yes...Srilankan stock market is not only 100% depend to Srilankan economy...Only 50 %..it is depend to srilankan economy...25%...depend to world market..balance 15% depend to economic condition in southasian countries..and balance 10% depend to total asian economic situation.....

CSE normally 50 % depend on manipulators now a days market players exit from the market because of the SEC warning..and Chairman Thilak's action otherwise we don't worry about any think..

CSE up to 7000 ASI Even whole world effect by credit crunch.

23Bad news guys Empty Re: Bad news guys Mon Feb 22, 2016 2:35 am

Gainer

Gainer
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics

If Remove the TILAK market will move up and break ASI 7000+++

Lot of market investors and players will Re- enter to the market

2012 why market crash ????  Because of TILAK

24Bad news guys Empty Re: Bad news guys Mon Feb 22, 2016 3:51 am

Joe007


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

If Tilak is involved fraud with ODEL ........ Must have investigated to meet the international standards. Did that happen?.
So how is he appointed again???. Imagine how foreign investors are going to trust Srilanka??? Even the head of department of fraud (SEC) .......

Guys,
I am not saying Tilak is fraud or not. But he should not have been appointed even if he is not guilty to prevent unnecessary uncertainty.

My simple question is , in what grounds are you all saying that the market has a good future specially if you believe that SEC head is fraud?????

I have already said that that CSE is going to struggle for a while until we get solid direction due to the many factors already mentioned and lack of confidence in the country. I heard a very good conversation from Very high business people who live in abroad about starting business in Srilanka. They are still saying that Srilanka is not operating with international standard. Eg fraud.....etc.....

CSE will go up only temporary not permanent....... Also current political situation in Srilanka seems to be the same story like before such as hiding fraud ....... Very bad example for foreign investors confidence.

Sajin Vas Gunawardena has started business already. What a shame what a shame..... What happened to this fraud he has involved.......
Many more but I had Enough about saying here..... It is like buying a rotten egg for breakfast....



25Bad news guys Empty Re: Bad news guys Mon Feb 22, 2016 8:45 am

CSE VIJAY


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

Joe007 wrote:Dear JAYATHU,
It is true that interest rate hike is not a good news for stock market at any time. Now interest rates are going up continuously which shows the economic instability clearly due the lack of funds available in the local and also deteriorating reserves at central bank.

The system of interest rate hike is going other side when comparing developed countries. There they increase the rate to increase the inflation. When they see the possibility of deflation they never increase also think about reducing furthermore to allow the money to flow effectively in the local economy.
But in Srilanka , interest rate hike is going upside down due th many reasons.
1) previous government's projects with no return. Such as property investment happened in Spain in a big scale.
2) too much debt for the country. So central bank have no option.
3) too much corruption and very hard to recover stolen funds from politicians like a tradition.
4) no investor confidence and SGT was a wrong idea and unacceptable. See CTC has affected very very badly specially its NAV.
5) unable to cut down imports and increase exports
6) unable to maintain the purchasing power of rupees. Normally it is good to bring down the currency to bring foreign investment , increase in exports and cut down of imports. But instability of rupees continuously make everyone stay away to avoid losses for just brining the funds into the country.
7) Srilanka economic market is very small and when comparing devaluation of rupees is too much. We can't expect too much foreign funds into the small economic market and we are still struggling.
Cool central bank's reserves are deteriorating and make everyone anxious about default. Eg - Greek Crisis.
Manymore reasons to write..

My opinion to improve
------------------------------
1) must privatise any loss making enterprises without affecting the national security.
2) must bring quick and serious judgement for those who involved corruption with the help of international to bring the country corruption free and confidence.
3) should stop any projects which are not going to give us short or medium term until economic conditions improve.
4) there are lots of corruption involved in the export and it should be tackled.
5) must bring tight law to cut down imports without any questions. See all parliamentarians want tax free permits to import vehicles. Very bad example to the nation and very selfish.
7) government should go for low interest loan to pay off higher interest loan taken by the previous government. There was a massive fraud and commission earned illegally from previous government.
Cool must lease some of its land or properties to foreign investment and must not sell free hold. They had been sold free hold many times.
9) if they can try atleast there will be a improvement then we can go next step....

If they don't improve
--------------------------
1) most investors will exit in the stock market regardless of any performance of companies. Imagine what will happen if there is a real problem in the country's economy???? I don't want to say that.... Example- Greek stock market.
2) most investors will move their wealth to safer investment due to the rate hike of interest and walk away stock market. If this happens, there will be difficult to sell our stock like now due to the lack of buyers. Then think what will happen?????
3) even investment in the financial system is also involved risk if there is a economic crisis. Also their guarantee for deposits are very low. So most people will move for safe haven investment.
4) most people don't understand that the stock market is the back bone of the country's economy. Also stock market is showing the healthy of any country's economy. Most people think that stock market is like horse race or casino in the gambling.

That is the reason the stock market is affected all the times if there is any news locally or internationally because it the back bone of the country's economy. in other way that stock market is the victim of country's economy because it is representing the country's economy.

Conclusion
---------------
As JAYATHU said,
Interest rate hike is like a cancer for country like Srilanka whether you accept it or not. The death is confirmed but don't know when.

Very good posting but only applicable to CIMA, University or other exam point of view. For our market situation you have to learn how to escape from pumping & dumping situation, Only simple demand & supply curve is enough. Don’t fear about interest high or other matters listed in your post.

1. You have to check Asian market data whether up or down

2. You have to check Europe market data up or down

3. You have to check US market data up or down

4. You have to check whether our Dear broker firms has any quantity to pump or dump

These are the main factors influencing our Market

Our broker firms are giving free pumping & dumping exercise, last week capital Trust gave us free pumping & damping exercise for JKH.w23 and for other shares other broker firms will give us but they are not charging anything for this exercise    

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