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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » CORPORATE CHRONICLE™ » Is it an actual recovery or a DCB

Is it an actual recovery or a DCB

+11
chamil1
jaya
Ok One
D.G.Dayaratne
EquityChamp
ranferdi
Chinwi
Winner123
stockback
Pac-man
hotstock
15 posters

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1Is it an actual recovery or a DCB Empty Is it an actual recovery or a DCB Thu Mar 10, 2016 8:03 pm

hotstock


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

I'm sure you were wondering what's DCB = Dead Cat Bounce Smile

Looking at the momentum during the latter part the day it looks like will have some support around 6000 or 6200 may be (unless any bad news comes and screws it up).. but some would say it's just a dcb as well..

May be technical experts can chime in here... (nevertheless i know technical nor fundamental doesnt work with our panic fellows regardless whether it's buying or selling, but some businesses (E.g. poultry, manufacturing etc) deserve better value to remain in PE 6 - 8 even during a bear phase)

2Is it an actual recovery or a DCB Empty Re: Is it an actual recovery or a DCB Thu Mar 10, 2016 8:12 pm

Pac-man

Pac-man
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

Dead cat thama oya boounce eka

3Is it an actual recovery or a DCB Empty Re: Is it an actual recovery or a DCB Thu Mar 10, 2016 8:22 pm

hotstock


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

@Pac-man, I see many posts from you today which is different from your past posts and I think you are emotional, perhaps would have sold some shares yesterday.

Dont worry, see the pattern and hold/invest wisely,in the right time and definitely your losses will come back to you one day. Some bad decisions are the learnings which will pay you back. What you are saying may correct, who knows the future, but comments should be justifiable..

4Is it an actual recovery or a DCB Empty Re: Is it an actual recovery or a DCB Thu Mar 10, 2016 9:26 pm

stockback


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

1) this week T-bill and T-bond auctions suspended. that mean CB wants to keep rates this level.

2) Port City start this month. I think Chinese  are happy with new conditions bcz they are getting 1000 Acre from Hambanthota.

3)IMF will Issue 1 -1.5 Billions USD

4)Government getting more money from tax increases.

5)i think no more negative news in recently..

please think....

5Is it an actual recovery or a DCB Empty Re: Is it an actual recovery or a DCB Thu Mar 10, 2016 10:29 pm

Winner123


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

why do people always blame on government. When actuals are been revealed it should disclosed to public. People wil have to sacrifise a bit to have a better life. Anyways hope there wont be any negative news in economy for the next few weeks.

6Is it an actual recovery or a DCB Empty Re: Is it an actual recovery or a DCB Thu Mar 10, 2016 10:57 pm

Chinwi

Chinwi
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics

රාජපක්‍ෂ‍ රජය විසින් ලබාගත් ණය ආපසු ගෙවීමට තිබෙන නිසා ජනතාව මත බදුබර පැටවීමට සිදු වූ බව රනිල් වික්‍රමසිංහ පැවසුවත්, මහ බැංකු දත්ත පිරීක්සීමේ දී හෙළි වන්නේ මහින්ද රජයෙන් ගත් ණය නොව, මේ රජය බලයට පත්වීමෙන් පසු 2015 දී ම සිය මූල්‍ය කළමනාකරන දුබලතා හා නොයෙක් ආකාර යටිමඩි ගැසීම් නිසා ලබාගත් ණය ම 2016 දී ගෙවීමට ඇති සමස්ත ණයවලින් සියයට 60ක් සමන්විත බවයි.

වත්මන් රජය 2015 වසරේ දී ශ්‍රි ලංකා සංවර්ධන බැඳුම්කර හරහා ඩොලර් බිලියන 1ක ණයක් ගන්නේ ය. වසරකින් කල් පිරෙන ලෙස ලබා ගත් එම ණය මේ වසරේ දී ගෙවිය යුතු ය. මීට අමතර ව, පසුගිය අප්‍රේල්- අගොස්තු අතර ඉන්දියාව සමග ඩොලර් බිලියන 1.5ක මුදල් හුවමාරු පහසුකමකට ලංකාව එලඹ තිබේ. මෙම ගෙවීම් දෙක පමණක් ම 2016 වසරේ ගෙවීමට තිබෙන මුළු ණය මුදලින් ඩොලර් බිලියන 2.5ක් තරම් විශාල කොටසකි. පසුගියද දා ෆිච් රේටින්ග්ස් ආයතනය විසින් කළ ගණනය කිරීමට අනුව අපට 2016 වසරේ දී ගෙවීමට ඇති මුළු ණය ප්‍රමාණය ඩොලර් බිලියන 4කි. මෙහි අර්ථය කුමක් ද? එනම් මේ වසරේ ගෙවීම‍ට තිබෙන මුළු ණය මුදලින් සියයට 60ක් ම වත්මන් ආණ්ඩුව විසින් පසුගිය වසරේ ලබාගත් ණය පමණක් බව ය.
-Quotes from another blog comment by Dhanushka

AS per above calc, we have to pay 4 billion US$.
Most of them are obtained after 8-1-2015 by this donkey government


මේ හොරු සහ උන් ගෙ ලනු කාපු මොඩයන් සැමවිටම කියන්නේ  මත්තල ගුවන් තොට හා මාගම් පුර වරායෙන් ලාබ නැති නිසා මේ අර්බුදය ඇතිවී ඇති බවය​.
නමුත් මත්තල ගු. තො. ණය  ඩොලර් මිලියන් 210 කි. වරාය ඩොලර් මිලියන් 340 කි.

එකතුව 550 කි. රුපියල් වලින් මිලියන් 75,000 කි.
Rs.බිලියන් 75 කි.
වසරකට පොලිය ණය වාරිකය ඇතුලුව 15% ක් ගෙවන්නේ නම් ගෙවිය යුතු මුදල බිලියන් 11 ක් පමණයි.

විදේශ ශ්‍රමිකයින් විසින් ලංකාවට එවූ මුදල පමණක් රුපියල් බිලියන් 70 කි.
ඒ 70 න් 11 ක් ගෙව්වත් මත්තල හා හම් බන්තොට ණය ගෙවිය හැක​.
2014 ලංකාව විසින් ආනයනය කල භාණ් ඩ පමණක් රුපියල් බිලියන් 144 කි.

එසේ නම් මේ රජය මේ කරන්නේ අමූලික බොරුවකි.  

As per above calc, repayment of Mattala and Magampura is nothing. The government is telling lies.

The actual situation is/should be something else. That is the most dangerous for us. We have to find the actual situation to evaluate the future.

If the repayment crisis is NOT due to Mahinda loans but due to loans taken by this Govt. then it is horrible. Because they obtained loans to run the country and NOT to build infrastructure.

If we want we can stop building infrastructure for 2 - 3 years and refrain from obtaining more loans . BUT, running the country to be done. Hence the loans obtained by Yahapalana ( approx 2.5 billion) are recurrent loans. They have to take more loans for paying back and for running the country.

If this situation is true then Yahapalana Donkeys are taking this country to beat Greece.



Last edited by Chinwi on Thu Mar 10, 2016 11:09 pm; edited 1 time in total

7Is it an actual recovery or a DCB Empty Re: Is it an actual recovery or a DCB Thu Mar 10, 2016 11:07 pm

stockback


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

Sorry chinwi

oya hariyata Pissu hadunu Baiyek wage


Government did big mistake(away from Chinese projects) now they are going to work with Chinese that is create good opportunity in future

8Is it an actual recovery or a DCB Empty Re: Is it an actual recovery or a DCB Thu Mar 10, 2016 11:21 pm

Chinwi

Chinwi
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics

stockback wrote:Sorry chinwi

oya hariyata Pissu hadunu Baiyek wage


Government did big mistake(away from Chinese projects) now they are going to work with Chinese that is create good opportunity in future

Fantastic ! So you believe Cheena ?

Cheena is going to work with this Government as before and everything will be alright ?

Ehema wenawa nam kochchara hondada ?

Even China started investing wholeheartedly (which is extremely doubtful) any good impact will come after at least 12-15 months. As per my belief Cheena will not help us to solve our Financial crisis as easy as we expect. Now the ball is in their hands.

BTW, බයියොන්ට පිස්සු හැදෙන්නෙ මොකටද ? දැන් බැලූ බැලූ තැන පිස්සු හැදිල තියෙන්නෙ ටොයියොන්ට නේ කාපුවා කියපුව දිරව ගන්න බැරුව​. Smile

9Is it an actual recovery or a DCB Empty Re: Is it an actual recovery or a DCB Thu Mar 10, 2016 11:30 pm

stockback


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

Chena not care about Mahinda Rajapaksha.

they need to expands business...

Chinage wade hari ekai Ranil 7-8 April chineta yanne.

16 March - we can get good news about Port city (Aluth kade paththen labei e news eka)

10Is it an actual recovery or a DCB Empty Re: Is it an actual recovery or a DCB Thu Mar 10, 2016 11:44 pm

Chinwi

Chinwi
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics

What I wanted to highlight ( by quoting some posts ) was the amount they need again and again to run the country.

Mahinda obtain loans to build infrastructure. If we are in crisis we can stop building and stop further loans.

Ranil obtained a 2.5 billion to run the country for 1 year. If so,
even if he wanted to stop obtaining further loans, he cannot .

That is the difference .


This is some explanation in Sinhala. Words are not mine.

වත්මන් රජයේ ණය හා මහින්ද රජයේ ණය අතර ප්‍රධාන වෙනසක් තිබේ. එනම් මහින්ද රජය විසින් ලබාගත් ණය සියල්ල රටේ සමස්ත සංවර්ධනය සඳහා යොදා ගත් අතර වත්මන් ආණ්ඩුව ණය ගත්තේ එදාවේල දිවීමට හා යටිමඩි ගැසීම් සඳහා ය. මහබැංකු වංචාව මෙහි දී මග නොහැරිය යුතු නිදසුනකි.

'Eda wela' means they need money for recurrent expenditure.
Mahinda - Capital expenditure
Ranil - Recurrent Expenditure

You can stop capital exp. but not recurrent exp. .
This is the horror movie we are going to watch.

11Is it an actual recovery or a DCB Empty Re: Is it an actual recovery or a DCB Fri Mar 11, 2016 12:06 am

Pac-man

Pac-man
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

meccharai kiyanna thiyennae- CGT eka nisa market 5000 lagata enawa sure

12Is it an actual recovery or a DCB Empty Re: Is it an actual recovery or a DCB Fri Mar 11, 2016 6:39 am

ranferdi

ranferdi
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

Chinvi is saying mattala andagampura was only 550million usd. At the same time saying that proporttion of eepayment MR loans is onl 1.5 billion. Then that case what have MR done with rest of money.?

Also you nees to consider the fact that in2015 this government had swap arrangement and issued bond to increase the reserves because the reserves are coming down due to loan repayments.

Also there was huge amounts payable to local contractors at the time of MR leaving..

Ranil is right MR ate and Ranil paying the bill..

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13Is it an actual recovery or a DCB Empty Re: Is it an actual recovery or a DCB Fri Mar 11, 2016 8:02 am

Chinwi

Chinwi
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics

ranferdi wrote:Chinvi is saying mattala andagampura was only 550million usd. At the same time saying that proporttion of eepayment MR loans is onl 1.5 billion. Then that case what have MR done with rest of money.?

.

Not me ranferdi.
I quoted people who talk for Yahapalana & Ranil.

Everywhere they say  MR wasted money to build Mattala and Magampura, they do not produce returns and that is why we are facing this crisis.

Proportional payment 1.5 billion or any amount is not only MR's loans. That is the balance we have to pay per year for loans taken for decades including war expenditure.
If you really want to see other things done by MR with 'rest of money' just go around the country.

They do not talk about roads and bridges including highways, agricultural developments, educational developments, war expenditure etc. done by MR because people are getting benefits.

So they always talk about Magampura and Mattala but do not consider or talk about the cost incurred for them. General public was fooled by these talks during elections and  they are still using same lies to hide their inability.


Somehow, what I wanted to study with others is not the loans taken for capital expenditure by any government. MR or RW we can handle that. ( what govt tells about capital expenditure is false)
The huge danger to affect our economy [and CSE]  is coming from unbearable recurrent expenditure created by Yahapalana .

For eg. unprecedented increase of salaries of Govt servants for obtaining votes is giving the real trouble.  these people promised huge increase of monthly salary without calculating the total.

Just count,  for 1.4 million of govt servants ( Im not sure about this 1.4m figure pl correct me if wrong )  increase of 10,000 x 12 x 1.4 m = 168 billion rupees per year  (Total expenditure for Mattala and Magampura = 75 billion ! )

They have to find 168 billion per year just to give the increased part of the salary. And this is repetitive. The real problem is here. Not  with  loans taken for capital expenditure.

I think now everybody can understand where is the problem.
168 billion recurrent per year Vs 75 billion one off expenditure distributed for many years paying back.


That is why I say we can handle Capital expenditure but  the problem is with recurrent expenditure .

මේක අපේ පවුලක උනත් එහෙමයි.  ඉඩමක් අරන් ගෙයක් හදන ණයක් ගත්තම අඩු ගානෙ වැටිල ඉන්න ගේ හරි තියෙනව​.  රටක් උනත් බැංකුවක් උනත් ප්‍රාග්ධන ණය දෙන්නෙ ගෙවීම් හැකියාව මැන බලල​. ඒ නිසා එතනත් සහනයක් තියෙනව​. ආපසු ගෙවීම  තමන් ගේ ආදායම අනුව වසර 10-15 බෙදිල යනව​. ඉඩම් මිල වැඩි වෙනව​. වසර 10 කට කලින් ගත්ත ගානට දැන් ගන්න බෑ.
කන්න බොන්න​, ඇඳුම් පැලඳුම් , විනෝදය​, සංචාරය වගේ ඒවට එදා වේල ණය ගන්න උනාම  ඒව ඉතුරුවක් නෑ වගේම දිගටම​ ණය ගන්න වෙනව​. අන්තිමේ රටටම ණය වෙලා නැත්තටම නැතිවෙලා යනව​.

14Is it an actual recovery or a DCB Empty Re: Is it an actual recovery or a DCB Fri Mar 11, 2016 8:09 am

EquityChamp

EquityChamp
Moderator
Moderator

Chinwi, what do you thinking of getting all the state workers as well into PAYE scheme or Income Tax scheme. As far as I know currently they are excluded from PAYE or income tax.

I just think all the employment income should be treated as same.

15Is it an actual recovery or a DCB Empty Re: Is it an actual recovery or a DCB Fri Mar 11, 2016 8:24 am

D.G.Dayaratne


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

It appears that" MAHINDA CHITHANA PEOPLE" still misuse statistics

I my university days I read a book called Use And Misuse of statistics

If you read it you can understand what CHINWI says

I agree with CHINWI with foolish salary increase to get votes created unnecessary problems

Previous govt gave unproductive employment in the public sector



Last edited by D.G.Dayaratne on Fri Mar 11, 2016 8:32 am; edited 1 time in total

16Is it an actual recovery or a DCB Empty Re: Is it an actual recovery or a DCB Fri Mar 11, 2016 8:31 am

Ok One


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy Question Question Question

17Is it an actual recovery or a DCB Empty Re: Is it an actual recovery or a DCB Fri Mar 11, 2016 8:43 am

ranferdi

ranferdi
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

Chinwi wrote:
ranferdi wrote:Chinvi is saying mattala andagampura was only 550million usd. At the same time saying that proporttion of eepayment MR loans is onl 1.5 billion. Then that case what have MR done with rest of money.?

.

Not me ranferdi.
I quoted people who talk for Yahapalana & Ranil.

Everywhere they say  MR wasted money to build Mattala and Magampura, they do not produce returns and that is why we are facing this crisis.

Proportional payment 1.5 billion or any amount is not only MR's loans. That is the balance we have to pay per year for loans taken for decades including war expenditure.
If you really want to see other things done by MR with 'rest of money' just go around the country.

They do not talk about roads and bridges including highways, agricultural developments, educational developments, war expenditure etc. done by MR because people are getting benefits.

So they always talk about Magampura and Mattala but do not consider or talk about the cost incurred for them. General public was fooled by these talks during elections and  they are still using same lies to hide their inability.


Somehow, what I wanted to study with others is not the loans taken for capital expenditure by any government. MR or RW we can handle that. ( what govt tells about capital expenditure is false)
The huge danger to affect our economy [and CSE]  is coming from unbearable recurrent expenditure created by Yahapalana .

For eg. unprecedented increase of salaries of Govt servants for obtaining votes is giving the real trouble.  these people promised huge increase of monthly salary without calculating the total.

Just count,  for 1.4 million of govt servants ( Im not sure about this 1.4m figure pl correct me if wrong )  increase of 10,000 x 12 x 1.4 m = 168 billion rupees per year  (Total expenditure for Mattala and Magampura = 75 billion ! )

They have to find 168 billion per year just to give the increased part of the salary. And this is repetitive. The real problem is here.  Not  with  loans taken for capital expenditure.

I think now everybody can understand where is the problem.  
168 billion recurrent per year Vs 75 billion one off expenditure distributed for many years paying back.


That is why I say we can handle Capital expenditure but  the problem is with recurrent expenditure .

මේක අපේ පවුලක උනත් එහෙමයි.  ඉඩමක් අරන් ගෙයක් හදන ණයක් ගත්තම අඩු ගානෙ වැටිල ඉන්න ගේ හරි තියෙනව​.  රටක් උනත් බැංකුවක් උනත් ප්‍රාග්ධන ණය දෙන්නෙ ගෙවීම් හැකියාව මැන බලල​. ඒ නිසා එතනත් සහනයක් තියෙනව​. ආපසු ගෙවීම  තමන් ගේ ආදායම අනුව වසර 10-15 බෙදිල යනව​. ඉඩම් මිල වැඩි වෙනව​. වසර 10 කට කලින් ගත්ත ගානට දැන් ගන්න බෑ.
කන්න බොන්න​, ඇඳුම් පැලඳුම් , විනෝදය​, සංචාරය වගේ ඒවට එදා වේල  ණය ගන්න උනාම  ඒව ඉතුරුවක් නෑ වගේම දිගටම​ ණය ගන්න වෙනව​. අන්තිමේ රටටම ණය වෙලා නැත්තටම නැතිවෙලා යනව​.

Dear Chinwi,

The core of the problem lies in the totality of the loans taken , Total is close to 10,000 Billion LKR or 70Billion USD... Dear Just evalueate the figure when MR taken the government it was just beow 15 billion USD.

MR. Did the roads and some projects thats beneficial to country too.. But most are ended up with failure or yet not fruitfull. The loans has to be taken development needs to be done but to the extend that we will not fall into debt trap.

Yahapalanya did increase the salaries to uphold the lives of the people and increasing salaries will uphold the lives and increase the economic activity increasing revenues, Isn't it?

Please do not try to whitewash the dirts of the crooks.






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18Is it an actual recovery or a DCB Empty Re: Is it an actual recovery or a DCB Fri Mar 11, 2016 8:59 am

Chinwi

Chinwi
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics

EquityChamp wrote:Chinwi, what do you thinking of getting all the state workers as well into PAYE scheme or Income Tax scheme. As far as I know currently they are excluded from PAYE or income tax.

I just think all the employment income should be treated as same.


100% agree with you. If done, burden on others will reduce.  
Direct Income tax , even in a small % should be there for everyone. No one will try this due to political backlash.  
Unfortunately all are paying indirect taxes in big amounts.

ඉස්සර අපේ තාත්තලගෙ කාලෙ තිබුනා උපයන විට ගෙවීම කියල එකක්. පසුව ඒක නැති කලා.
--

p.s.
although I am not happy with his behavior on Indian affairs and also hate for his newly found tactics of telling lies about economy , I think Ranil W is the only man who can go for this.

19Is it an actual recovery or a DCB Empty Re: Is it an actual recovery or a DCB Fri Mar 11, 2016 9:29 am

jaya


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

Chinwi wrote:
රාජපක්‍ෂ‍ රජය විසින් ලබාගත් ණය ආපසු ගෙවීමට තිබෙන නිසා ජනතාව මත බදුබර පැටවීමට සිදු වූ බව රනිල් වික්‍රමසිංහ පැවසුවත්, මහ බැංකු දත්ත පිරීක්සීමේ දී හෙළි වන්නේ මහින්ද රජයෙන් ගත් ණය නොව, මේ රජය බලයට පත්වීමෙන් පසු 2015 දී ම සිය මූල්‍ය කළමනාකරන දුබලතා හා නොයෙක් ආකාර යටිමඩි ගැසීම් නිසා ලබාගත් ණය ම 2016 දී ගෙවීමට ඇති සමස්ත ණයවලින් සියයට 60ක් සමන්විත බවයි.

වත්මන් රජය 2015 වසරේ දී ශ්‍රි ලංකා සංවර්ධන බැඳුම්කර හරහා ඩොලර් බිලියන 1ක ණයක් ගන්නේ ය. වසරකින් කල් පිරෙන ලෙස ලබා ගත් එම ණය මේ වසරේ දී ගෙවිය යුතු ය. මීට අමතර ව, පසුගිය අප්‍රේල්- අගොස්තු අතර ඉන්දියාව සමග ඩොලර් බිලියන 1.5ක මුදල් හුවමාරු පහසුකමකට ලංකාව එලඹ තිබේ. මෙම ගෙවීම් දෙක පමණක් ම 2016 වසරේ ගෙවීමට තිබෙන මුළු ණය මුදලින් ඩොලර් බිලියන 2.5ක් තරම් විශාල කොටසකි. පසුගියද දා ෆිච් රේටින්ග්ස් ආයතනය විසින් කළ ගණනය කිරීමට අනුව අපට 2016 වසරේ දී ගෙවීමට ඇති මුළු ණය ප්‍රමාණය ඩොලර් බිලියන 4කි. මෙහි අර්ථය කුමක් ද? එනම් මේ වසරේ ගෙවීම‍ට තිබෙන මුළු ණය මුදලින් සියයට 60ක් ම වත්මන් ආණ්ඩුව විසින් පසුගිය වසරේ ලබාගත් ණය පමණක් බව ය.
-Quotes from another blog comment by Dhanushka

AS per above calc, we have to pay 4 billion US$.
Most of them are obtained after 8-1-2015 by this donkey government


මේ හොරු සහ උන් ගෙ ලනු කාපු මොඩයන් සැමවිටම කියන්නේ  මත්තල ගුවන් තොට හා මාගම් පුර වරායෙන් ලාබ නැති නිසා මේ අර්බුදය ඇතිවී ඇති බවය​.
නමුත් මත්තල ගු. තො. ණය  ඩොලර් මිලියන් 210 කි. වරාය ඩොලර් මිලියන් 340 කි.

එකතුව 550 කි. රුපියල් වලින් මිලියන් 75,000 කි.
Rs.බිලියන් 75 කි.
වසරකට පොලිය ණය වාරිකය ඇතුලුව 15% ක් ගෙවන්නේ නම් ගෙවිය යුතු මුදල බිලියන් 11 ක් පමණයි.

විදේශ ශ්‍රමිකයින් විසින් ලංකාවට එවූ මුදල පමණක් රුපියල් බිලියන් 70 කි.
ඒ 70 න් 11 ක් ගෙව්වත් මත්තල හා හම් බන්තොට ණය ගෙවිය හැක​.
2014 ලංකාව විසින් ආනයනය කල භාණ් ඩ පමණක් රුපියල් බිලියන් 144 කි.

එසේ නම් මේ රජය මේ කරන්නේ අමූලික බොරුවකි.  

As per above calc, repayment of Mattala and Magampura is nothing. The government is telling lies.

The actual situation is/should be something else. That is the most dangerous for us. We have to find the actual situation to evaluate the future.

If the repayment crisis is NOT due to Mahinda loans but due to loans taken by this Govt. then it is horrible. Because they obtained loans to run the country and NOT to build infrastructure.

If we want we can stop building infrastructure for 2 - 3 years and refrain from obtaining more loans . BUT, running the country to be done. Hence the loans obtained by Yahapalana ( approx 2.5 billion) are recurrent loans. They have to take more loans for paying back and for running the country.

If this situation is true then Yahapalana Donkeys are taking this country to beat Greece.

Contract Price for Hambantota Port Phase 1 = 380 Million US $

Contract Price for Hambantota Port Phase 2 = 980 Million US $

Contract Price for Hambantota Port Oil Farm = 190 Million US $

 

 

Mattala Air Port  Phase – 01 = 350 Million US $

 

Top of that add 5-10% Engineer’s cost

 

Road works =( It is out of my Subject)

If anybody need more detail send me PM E-mail

20Is it an actual recovery or a DCB Empty Re: Is it an actual recovery or a DCB Fri Mar 11, 2016 9:34 am

Pac-man

Pac-man
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

larger concerns over the outlook remains on account of re-imposition of capital gains, upward revisions in corporate and personal tax as well as Value Added Tax by the Government to shore up revenue to pay for higher debt and previously unaccounted payments of Rs. 1 trillion by the former President Mahinda Rajapaksa regime.

Though fiscal management is likely to improve and weigh positively to fundamentals of the market, the upward pressure on interest rates was another concern in addition to dimmer prospects for corporate earnings in the new financial year

21Is it an actual recovery or a DCB Empty Re: Is it an actual recovery or a DCB Fri Mar 11, 2016 10:05 am

Chinwi

Chinwi
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics

ranferdi wrote:The core of the problem lies in the totality of the loans taken , Total is close to 10,000 Billion LKR or 70Billion USD... Dear Just evalueate the figure when MR taken the government it was just beow 15 billion USD.

We cannot evaluate just comparing two figures like this.

A man  gets his first job , and thought about buying a motorbike.  
He obtained 40,000 as a loan for it.

After few years time he became an officer , wanted to buy a Maruti.  He got 800,000 loan for it.

1. Initially the salary was 3000 and the loan was 13  times of his monthly salary.

1. Now he is getting 50,000 and 800,000 is 16 times of his salary.

You cannot blame him for increasing his debt from 40,000 to 800,000 .

He gets 50,000 and he is sure about his performances and salary increments in future too. So he can manage the loan.

Better way is comparing his producing capacity and loan. This is same for a company or country too.
This graph shows Sri Lanka's situation.
I had to rely on http://www.tradingeconomics.com/sri-lanka/government-debt-to-gdp

Is it an actual recovery or a DCB Lk_gdp10

When Mahinda started our GDP was 24 B US$. At the end of  his 10 years time it was 80 B US$.  See the graph. If we continued at this rate even 100 B loan is manageable.  
Is it an actual recovery or a DCB Gdp_wb10

22Is it an actual recovery or a DCB Empty Re: Is it an actual recovery or a DCB Fri Mar 11, 2016 10:08 am

Chinwi

Chinwi
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics

About cost figures: I have no copies of contracts. I have to rely on Internet.

When we type 'Mattala Airport cost ' it takes me to many links showing 210m US$

23Is it an actual recovery or a DCB Empty Re: Is it an actual recovery or a DCB Fri Mar 11, 2016 2:41 pm

chamil1


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

Total National Debt. Rs. 8.7 Trillion (Rs 8,700,000,000,000). Extra debt unnoficial Rs. 1.4 trillion. Total National debt Rs. 10.1 Trillion - Prime Mnister Ranil Wickremasinghe

2005 the year Appachchi was elected as President total national debt. Rs. 2.5 Trillion.

During the 10 year reign appachchi has taken Rs 7.6 Trillion as loan.

Loans taken for development work Rs.400 billion or Rs. 400,000,000,000 dats Rs 0.4 trillion (Airport, Harbour, carpet roads, power plants, etc.)

From 2006 to 2009 additional defense expenditure for war is only Rs 480 billion (Rs. O.48 Trillion).

Appachchi has raised our national debt to 4 folds during hes 10 year reign. Great!!!

A Sri Lankan owes the world Rs. 450,000 from Rs. 100,000 in 2005. Great!!!

With executive power, 2/3rd majority in the parliament, 100% control of entire Sri Lanka land, APACHCHI has looted the country with trillions of Rupees.

Eventually the cost of completion of the war is Rs. 7.6 Trillion. Suba Anaagathayak!!!

For those who dont understand Miliions billions trillions or Zillions.

1O lakhs = 1 million
10 Million = 1 Crore
100 crores = 1 Billion
1000 Billion = 1 Trillion
1000 Trillion = Zillion




Chinwi wrote:
රාජපක්‍ෂ‍ රජය විසින් ලබාගත් ණය ආපසු ගෙවීමට තිබෙන නිසා ජනතාව මත බදුබර පැටවීමට සිදු වූ බව රනිල් වික්‍රමසිංහ පැවසුවත්, මහ බැංකු දත්ත පිරීක්සීමේ දී හෙළි වන්නේ මහින්ද රජයෙන් ගත් ණය නොව, මේ රජය බලයට පත්වීමෙන් පසු 2015 දී ම සිය මූල්‍ය කළමනාකරන දුබලතා හා නොයෙක් ආකාර යටිමඩි ගැසීම් නිසා ලබාගත් ණය ම 2016 දී ගෙවීමට ඇති සමස්ත ණයවලින් සියයට 60ක් සමන්විත බවයි.

වත්මන් රජය 2015 වසරේ දී ශ්‍රි ලංකා සංවර්ධන බැඳුම්කර හරහා ඩොලර් බිලියන 1ක ණයක් ගන්නේ ය. වසරකින් කල් පිරෙන ලෙස ලබා ගත් එම ණය මේ වසරේ දී ගෙවිය යුතු ය. මීට අමතර ව, පසුගිය අප්‍රේල්- අගොස්තු අතර ඉන්දියාව සමග ඩොලර් බිලියන 1.5ක මුදල් හුවමාරු පහසුකමකට ලංකාව එලඹ තිබේ. මෙම ගෙවීම් දෙක පමණක් ම 2016 වසරේ ගෙවීමට තිබෙන මුළු ණය මුදලින් ඩොලර් බිලියන 2.5ක් තරම් විශාල කොටසකි. පසුගියද දා ෆිච් රේටින්ග්ස් ආයතනය විසින් කළ ගණනය කිරීමට අනුව අපට 2016 වසරේ දී ගෙවීමට ඇති මුළු ණය ප්‍රමාණය ඩොලර් බිලියන 4කි. මෙහි අර්ථය කුමක් ද? එනම් මේ වසරේ ගෙවීම‍ට තිබෙන මුළු ණය මුදලින් සියයට 60ක් ම වත්මන් ආණ්ඩුව විසින් පසුගිය වසරේ ලබාගත් ණය පමණක් බව ය.
-Quotes from another blog comment by Dhanushka

AS per above calc, we have to pay 4 billion US$.
Most of them are obtained after 8-1-2015 by this donkey government


මේ හොරු සහ උන් ගෙ ලනු කාපු මොඩයන් සැමවිටම කියන්නේ  මත්තල ගුවන් තොට හා මාගම් පුර වරායෙන් ලාබ නැති නිසා මේ අර්බුදය ඇතිවී ඇති බවය​.
නමුත් මත්තල ගු. තො. ණය  ඩොලර් මිලියන් 210 කි. වරාය ඩොලර් මිලියන් 340 කි.

එකතුව 550 කි. රුපියල් වලින් මිලියන් 75,000 කි.
Rs.බිලියන් 75 කි.
වසරකට පොලිය ණය වාරිකය ඇතුලුව 15% ක් ගෙවන්නේ නම් ගෙවිය යුතු මුදල බිලියන් 11 ක් පමණයි.

විදේශ ශ්‍රමිකයින් විසින් ලංකාවට එවූ මුදල පමණක් රුපියල් බිලියන් 70 කි.
ඒ 70 න් 11 ක් ගෙව්වත් මත්තල හා හම් බන්තොට ණය ගෙවිය හැක​.
2014 ලංකාව විසින් ආනයනය කල භාණ් ඩ පමණක් රුපියල් බිලියන් 144 කි.

එසේ නම් මේ රජය මේ කරන්නේ අමූලික බොරුවකි.  

As per above calc, repayment of Mattala and Magampura is nothing. The government is telling lies.

The actual situation is/should be something else. That is the most dangerous for us. We have to find the actual situation to evaluate the future.

If the repayment crisis is NOT due to Mahinda loans but due to loans taken by this Govt. then it is horrible. Because they obtained loans to run the country and NOT to build infrastructure.

If we want we can stop building infrastructure for 2 - 3 years and refrain from obtaining more loans . BUT, running the country to be done. Hence the loans obtained by Yahapalana ( approx 2.5 billion) are recurrent loans. They have to take more loans for paying back and for running the country.

If this situation is true then Yahapalana Donkeys are taking this country to beat Greece.

24Is it an actual recovery or a DCB Empty Re: Is it an actual recovery or a DCB Fri Mar 11, 2016 4:48 pm

ranferdi

ranferdi
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

@CHAMIL Well said.. The problem with the ones who support MR is that even though they know the truth they want to conceal it.

Because they want Appachchi at any cost to continue receiving kickbacks...

http://::::THIS EMAIL DOESNT WORK.. PLEASE CONTACT ME ON FB ACCO

25Is it an actual recovery or a DCB Empty Re: Is it an actual recovery or a DCB Fri Mar 11, 2016 9:25 pm

worthiness


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

Seeking to stay in power,ambitious politicians offer public many promises in monetary terms which are unbearable to the size of economic value of country. Moreover, the amount of high level corruptions, commissions, excessive wastage & extravagant consumption have become heavy weight to country's small economy.
It is revealed how a high % of income unequally distribute to a low % of privileged community. Whoever rules the country should put to an end such nasty & filthy practices for the sake of poor class of the country. It is the duty of every writer in this forum to present the true facts without upholding any personalities.

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