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Which indicator is more reliable?

4 posters

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1Which indicator is more reliable?  Empty Which indicator is more reliable? Sat May 14, 2016 5:39 am

VALUEPICK

VALUEPICK
Expert
Expert

I found following indicators for some stocks during first four months of this year.
 
Hourly, daily, weekly and monthly indicators
 
Some stocks were bullish according to weekly or monthly moving averages and technical indicators but they were strong sell according to the daily and hourly analysis.  Today those stocks have become market beating stocks.
 
It is very interesting that I found some stocks are very bullish on the basis of monthly technical indicators and moving averages but bearish on hourly or daily indicators. According to technical indicators, some stocks can buy and according to moving averages we should sell those stocks and vice versa.
 
Therefore, I believe it is better to identity major uptrend in stocks.
 
I also saw lot of short term bearish analysts on media during that period. According to them we should sell stocks in January, February and March should not buy stocks. Even short term technical indicators predicted bearish outlook.
 
On the other hand some smart investors globally including Sri-Lanka took advantage from this panic and bearishness and built their portfolio wisely without following any indicators or other crowds, by applying common sense, by identifying great value and by identifying industry outlook and market outlook etc. I believe current volatility in global stock markets is going to create another great opportunity in 2016.
 
Only future earnings and future strong balance sheets will drive stocks prices in the mid and long term.

2Which indicator is more reliable?  Empty Re: Which indicator is more reliable? Sat May 14, 2016 6:18 am

charith666lk


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

Super article VP. Thanks expert.

3Which indicator is more reliable?  Empty Re: Which indicator is more reliable? Sun May 15, 2016 9:28 am

VALUEPICK

VALUEPICK
Expert
Expert

4Which indicator is more reliable?  Empty Re: Which indicator is more reliable? Sun May 15, 2016 9:28 am

VALUEPICK

VALUEPICK
Expert
Expert

http://www.followingthetrend.com/2014/05/why-technical-analysis-is-shunned-by-professionals/
 
Why technical analysis is shunned by professionals
 
http://www.fool.com/investing/value/avoid-the-mistake-that-cost-buffett-8-years-of-bet.aspx
 
Avoid the Mistake That Cost Buffett 8 Years of Better Returns

5Which indicator is more reliable?  Empty Re: Which indicator is more reliable? Sun May 15, 2016 10:35 am

Chinwi

Chinwi
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics

From the article Valuepick linked

Are you saying that all technical analysts are scam artists?


The problem is not with the concept of TA.
TA believers follow the charts and trends drawn in their minds by "put EPS, AVPS to dustbin" type people who use these concepts to deviate the crowd from ground reality.

6Which indicator is more reliable?  Empty Re: Which indicator is more reliable? Sun May 15, 2016 10:53 am

VALUEPICK

VALUEPICK
Expert
Expert

Chinwi wrote:From the article Valuepick linked

Are you saying that all technical analysts are scam artists?


The problem is not with the concept of TA.
TA believers follow the charts and trends drawn in their minds  by "put EPS, AVPS to dustbin" type people who use these concepts to deviate the crowd from ground reality.
Yes. I agree with you.
 
No I am not telling that all technical analysts are scam artists. Technical analysis has become part of today’s financial world. They have to rely on it to take decisions on daily and short term movements in currency, commodity and stocks.  I just saw some different type of link and I posted it.

7Which indicator is more reliable?  Empty Re: Which indicator is more reliable? Sun May 15, 2016 4:52 pm

Chinwi

Chinwi
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics

@ valuepick,

I got that question from the content of the article and the author has given similar like answer.

No, I wouldn’t go that far. There are actually plenty of professionals using concepts originating from technical analysis. Usually they don’t use the term though, for reasons made clear above. A large part of quantitative, systematic trading is based on ideas from that came out of that field.
There are even many people with the job title of technical analyst who are serious, competent and responsible professionals. These are the people who need to take a stand against the scope drift of their field.

As I said, I and many others in the hedge fund business use ideas and concepts from technical analysis. We look at charts, we use the occasional indicator, draw conclusions from price patterns and run simulations to test quantitative time series theories.



BTW, I do not believe TA other than for short term trends, EMA, SMA. I watch some patterns to study others (TA followers') minds and use those signals to determine their actions. So we can act before or with them.

I feel following TA is like 'horata kalin kehel kanata paninava' type thing.
They draw lines according to past movements and predict future by looking at trends or patterns. Then all who believe follow it and trade accordingly. Then they say, see TA is correct. Market behaves as per our reading.

TA is studying how peoples minds reacted to past signals and match current situations. But, in Sri Lanka I don't think even that is possible because of the level of manipulating done with many stocks. Actually crooks use TA signals to push (or down) the prices to unbelievable levels and then say it was a genuine trend , even TA predicted this behavior.

8Which indicator is more reliable?  Empty Re: Which indicator is more reliable? Sun May 15, 2016 6:33 pm

Yahapalanaya

Yahapalanaya
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

TA would produce good prediction charts for seasonal counters since pattern would be consistant.

Would TA give good analysis or prediction if there is any new taxes and some budget proposal impacts...

Neutral Neutral Neutral

9Which indicator is more reliable?  Empty Re: Which indicator is more reliable? Mon May 16, 2016 11:31 am

VALUEPICK

VALUEPICK
Expert
Expert

Chinwi wrote:@ valuepick,

I got that question from the content of the article and the author has given similar like answer.

No, I wouldn’t go that far. There are actually plenty of professionals using concepts originating from technical analysis. Usually they don’t use the term though, for reasons made clear above.  A large part of quantitative, systematic trading is based on ideas from that came out of that field.
There are even many people with the job title of technical analyst who are serious, competent and responsible professionals.  These are the people who need to take a stand against the scope drift of their field.

As I said, I and many others in the hedge fund business use ideas and concepts from technical analysis. We look at charts, we use the occasional indicator, draw conclusions from price patterns and run simulations to test quantitative time series theories.



BTW, I do not believe TA other than for short term trends, EMA, SMA. I watch some patterns   to study others (TA followers') minds and use those signals to determine their actions. So we can act before or with them.

I feel following TA is like 'horata kalin kehel kanata paninava' type thing.
They draw lines according to past movements and   predict future by looking at trends or patterns. Then all who believe follow it and trade accordingly. Then they say, see TA is correct. Market behaves as per our   reading.

TA is studying how peoples minds reacted to past signals and match current situations. But, in Sri Lanka I don't think even that is possible because of the level of manipulating done with many stocks. Actually crooks use TA signals  to push (or down) the prices to unbelievable levels and then say it was a genuine trend , even TA predicted this behavior.
Chinwi
 
Very interesting! Above article is also very interesting.
 
 http://www.moneycrashers.com/the-best-way-to-invest-fundamental-or-technical-analysis/
 
The Best Way to Invest: Fundamental or Technical Analysis?


https://www.quora.com/Why-do-some-investment-banks-still-use-technical-analysis-in-their-analysis-reports

Why do some investment banks still use technical analysis in their analysis reports?
 
https://www.quora.com/Who-are-some-successful-investors-traders-that-use-purely-technical-analysis
 
Who are some successful investors/traders that use purely technical analysi

10Which indicator is more reliable?  Empty Re: Which indicator is more reliable? Mon May 16, 2016 11:46 am

VALUEPICK

VALUEPICK
Expert
Expert

Yahapalanaya wrote:TA would produce good prediction charts for seasonal counters since pattern would be consistant.

Would TA give good analysis or prediction if there is any new taxes and some budget proposal impacts...

Neutral Neutral Neutral
YP

I don't think so. Do you have any idea about this?

11Which indicator is more reliable?  Empty Re: Which indicator is more reliable? Mon May 16, 2016 9:39 pm

Yahapalanaya

Yahapalanaya
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

VALUEPICK wrote:
Yahapalanaya wrote:TA would produce good prediction charts for seasonal counters since pattern would be consistant.

Would TA give good analysis or prediction if there is any new taxes and some budget proposal impacts...

Neutral Neutral Neutral
YP

I don't think so. Do you have any idea about this?
Idea about what..

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