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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » CORPORATE CHRONICLE™ » ASPI Bull Trend to reach 7000 sooner than later

ASPI Bull Trend to reach 7000 sooner than later

3 posters

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EquityChamp

EquityChamp
Moderator
Moderator

ASPI Bull Trend to reach 7000 sooner than later Cse_al10

worthiness


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

Indirectly you mean the current trend shows that the Index will touch sooner than later the previous peak reached on 9th November 2015. Is it correct?

Maxime


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic

Whatever stocks went up high risk at high price and time to buy whatever still not move up

EquityChamp

EquityChamp
Moderator
Moderator

Hi Worthi,
According to the fibonachchi fans on the ASPI the strength of this bull run will take ASPI there in the next couple of quarters. This is supported by the 10 day MA line continuously below the stock price line and the gap is widening. The only pull back I am expecting is the market is due for some consolidation as RSI figures are in oversold territory for some time now. But this is explainable due to encouraging quarterly earnings we are seen for the last quarter. That has given the market an additional stimuli. Further the index heavy JKH is highly expected to reach 180/- and CTC too expecting to reach 1,500 levels in the coming quarters. These too will have a big influence on ASPI future movement. So I see 2016 will end with a positive YOY growth in ASPI.

worthiness


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

Based on CSE statistics presented by Lanka Securities Database
                                                YTD          2014        2013
Return on ASPI                         -3.1%       -5.5%       23.4%
Net Foreign Outflow                   -3,881      -4,426      22,066


Does above technical analysis support the first negative line become positive after few quarters subject to the force majeure?


What factors be of assistance to get positive of negative foreign outflow?

I wonder why 2015 statistics not given. Please note this is only for discussion purpose.

EquityChamp

EquityChamp
Moderator
Moderator

2014 begining ASPI 5968 and closed at 7299 so ASPI return was +22.3% so where comes -5.5% ?
In 2015 ASPI closed @ 6894 so ASPI return was -5.5%. Probable your above years has to be 2014 and 2015 not 2013 @ 2014.

I presume ASPI drop witnessed from Q4 2015 till Q1 2016 was over-reaction to macro economic as well as world economic factors. I have highlighted this in this forum few times as well. And with that negative atmosphere the investor sentiment was badly beaten down. I think investors have reacted to this and they perceived that the market was oversold. Furthermore you can see the trends in world market scenario as well as Sri Lankan economic conditions including interest rates and exchange rates.

Wrt foreign outflow that is something we need to think alone the global shifting in funds of the managed funds. Lot of fund shifting has been happening from emerging markets to developed markets due to change in market atmosphere. This is something we can't control and will change depending on market conditions of the globe.

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