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COMMERCIAL CREDIT AND FINANCE PLC (COCR.N0000)

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261COMMERCIAL CREDIT AND FINANCE PLC (COCR.N0000) - Page 11 Empty Trading or investing in stocks Mon Oct 24, 2016 6:52 am

ruwan326


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

ruwan326 wrote:
stockback wrote:
TARGET wrote:Chinwi may earn. But he didn't promote it to sell his qty like you stockback.  What you think?  How many new comers may had loss due to your promotions those days..poor fellows. .


new comers are loss realized?

how do you say like that.

nearly 80% i can say correctly. some time we also getting problems. 

what i said. considering  technically and ACAP portfolio. if company doing something bad then i cannot get responsibility.

is that ACAP crap share?

how many people here promote crap CIFL. what i said dont buy wait until deal done.

but I am not that position to COCR. this year you will understand about COCR. that time dont forget my word.
If you take CIFL and COCR we both know CIFL is a crap...............
CIFL didn't singed a deal and there was no agreement to proof.........
COCR still in same way but we saw the agreement and they might sign it in the future.....

Some times you need to take risks rather than waiting to invest safely, if you waited till COCR deal to end it already reached 100/=+ and you can not make a good profit,but if you bought COCR before the announcement and if you can hold at 54/= ++ it is a good invest.

06:52:39 & commodities is a high risk activity. Any action you choose to take in the markets is totally your own responsibility, so do your own research before investing and do not blame some one after you lost or invested on crap share

stockback


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

ruwan326 wrote:
ruwan326 wrote:
stockback wrote:
TARGET wrote:Chinwi may earn. But he didn't promote it to sell his qty like you stockback.  What you think?  How many new comers may had loss due to your promotions those days..poor fellows. .


new comers are loss realized?

how do you say like that.

nearly 80% i can say correctly. some time we also getting problems. 

what i said. considering  technically and ACAP portfolio. if company doing something bad then i cannot get responsibility.

is that ACAP crap share?

how many people here promote crap CIFL. what i said dont buy wait until deal done.

but I am not that position to COCR. this year you will understand about COCR. that time dont forget my word.
If you take CIFL and COCR we both know CIFL is a crap...............
CIFL didn't singed a deal and there was no agreement to proof.........
COCR still in same way but we saw the agreement and they might sign it in the future.....

Some times you need to take risks rather than waiting to invest safely, if you waited till COCR deal to end it already reached 100/=+ and you can not make a good profit,but if you bought COCR before the announcement and if you can hold at 54/= ++ it is a good invest.

06:52:39 & commodities is a high risk activity. Any action you choose to take in the markets is totally your own responsibility, so do your own research before investing and do not blame some one after you lost or invested on crap share


according to Group Lease doc. they have sign a agreement. in that doc they haven't mention the date.

according to that agreement they has buy now. unless SEC OR SET not approved. I am sure this will be getting approval. 

COCR this level bcz of ASI. now Market P/E 13

I have involve to this type activities. 

example one company request P/E 10 for deeal. at that time share price and P/E =4.5
they have request 5.5 times of net Assets. 

my client request 25% shares. Company doesnt like to give that much

according to knowledge this deal is genuine one.

but CIFL not. 

ekathamai hari thanadi katha karanne.....

Chinwi


Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics

stockback wrote:


according to Group Lease doc. they have sign a agreement. in that doc they haven't mention the date.

according to that agreement they has buy now. unless SEC OR SET not approved. I am sure this will be getting approval. 

COCR this level bcz of ASI. now Market P/E 13

I have involve to this type activities. 

example one company request P/E 10 for deeal. at that time share price and P/E =4.5
they have request 5.5 times of net Assets. 

my client request 25% shares. Company doesnt like to give that much

according to knowledge this deal is genuine one.

but CIFL not. 

ekathamai hari thanadi katha karanne.....


Is there any restriction, law or ethics preventing stock promotion while working in a broker firm ?

ruwan326


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

ruwan326 wrote:
ruwan326 wrote:
stockback wrote:
TARGET wrote:Chinwi may earn. But he didn't promote it to sell his qty like you stockback.  What you think?  How many new comers may had loss due to your promotions those days..poor fellows. .


new comers are loss realized?

how do you say like that.

nearly 80% i can say correctly. some time we also getting problems. 

what i said. considering  technically and ACAP portfolio. if company doing something bad then i cannot get responsibility.

is that ACAP crap share?

how many people here promote crap CIFL. what i said dont buy wait until deal done.

but I am not that position to COCR. this year you will understand about COCR. that time dont forget my word.
If you take CIFL and COCR we both know CIFL is a crap...............
CIFL didn't singed a deal and there was no agreement to proof.........
COCR still in same way but we saw the agreement and they might sign it in the future.....

Some times you need to take risks rather than waiting to invest safely, if you waited till COCR deal to end it already reached 100/=+ and you can not make a good profit,but if you bought COCR before the announcement and if you can hold at 54/= ++ it is a good invest.

06:52:39 & commodities is a high risk activity. Any action you choose to take in the markets is totally your own responsibility, so do your own research before investing and do not blame some one after you lost or invested on crap share
Trading or investing in stocks
& commodities is a high risk activity. Any action you choose to take in the markets is totally your own responsibility  Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy  not 06:52 ....

TARGET


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

stockbackata ninda yanne na 70 ta gaththa tika kage hari age gahala maru wenakam... lol!

stockback


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

TARGET wrote:stockbackata ninda yanne na 70 ta gaththa tika kage hari age gahala maru wenakam... lol!


I am ready to hold it  even one year time.

Time will solve all the problems.

but Crap ekak gaththoth baduma thamai samahara welawata....

mama kiyanne naha hama welema ehema wenawa kiyala. samahara welawata thami

TARGET


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

stockback wrote:
TARGET wrote:stockbackata ninda yanne na 70 ta gaththa tika kage hari age gahala maru wenakam... lol!


I am ready to hold it  even one year time.

Time will solve all the problems.

but Crap ekak gaththoth baduma thamai samahara welawata....

mama kiyanne naha hama welema ehema wenawa kiyala. samahara welawata thami
Like acap lol!

Maxime


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic

PrasannaMani wrote:Ceylon Finance Today: Thai motorcycle leasing company Group Lease PCL yesterday (03) said that they had acquired a 29.99% or 95.3M share stake of Sri Lanka's listed Commercial Credit and Finance (stock code-COCR) for Rs 10,588,345,500 or Rs 10.5B.
The sellers will be BG Investments, Creation Investments and Stephen L. Lafrance Jr, they said. The selling price per share is Rs 111 and yesterday (3) COCR closed at
Rs 54.10 up Rs 1.40 or 2.66%. Group Lease which is a part of Japan's Wedge Holdings Co now has the right to buy the remaining 70 % in COCR if existing shareholders want to sell the stake, Chairman and Chief Executive Mitsuji Konoshita told an overseas joint news conference.

Commercial Credit and Finance (CCF) has assets of $500M, of which one-fifth is in the microfinance business, and expects a net profit of $22M this year, CCF Chief Executive Roshan S. Egodage said
Listed microfinance company Group Lease (GL) plans to collaborate further with CCF to strengthen its microfinance businesses in Indonesia and Cambodia after GL acquired a microfinance company in Myanmar from a CCF shareholder.
GL has recently signed a memorandum of understanding on the transaction with CCF to buy a 71.9-per-cent stake in BG Microfinance Myanmar, a subsidiary of CCF, from BG International Private, a holding company based in Sri Lanka owned by Roshan S. Egodage, who is also chief executive officer of CCF.

GL chairman and CEO Mitsuji Konoshita said the transaction would be made via GL Holdings (GLH), its holding company in Singapore. Egodage said he decided to sell shares to GL because of strict restrictions by the Sri Lankan authorities on capital outflows. GL's successful digital finance business model will contribute to BG Microfinance's rapid expansion while the GL finance model will be implemented in all other countries where GL operates, especially Indonesia and Cambodia, where there are enormous growth opportunities, he said.
CCF does not have a footprint in Indonesia or Cambodia, so collaboration with GL will provide the Sri Lankan firm scope to broaden its operations, Egodage said. Konoshita said GL was ready to inject $6.8M into BG Microfinance to have branches in 12 districts in Myanmar, up from only three now.
"We hope that BG Microfinance's portfolio will dramatically increase from $30M to $40M next year, and monthly profit should increase by 10 times from the current total," he said. Myanmar is providing a big opportunity for GL as it is an emerging market and only five players including BG Microfinance are there, he said. Furthermore, authorities are not giving out any new microfinance or hire-purchase licences. Therefore, it is a great opportunity for GL to expand its market share.
GL recently announced net profit in the second-quarter of THB 255.85M, raising its total first-half profit to THB 478M.
(IG)
GL has recently signed a memorandum of understanding on the transaction with CCF to buy a 71.9-per-cent stake in BG Microfinance Myanmar.

COCR Mandatory offer Announcement Still Pending and Highly expecting at 111.00

PrasannaMani

PrasannaMani
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

http://www.set.or.th/set/newsdetails.do?newsId=14778709831250&language=en&country=US

PrasannaMani

PrasannaMani
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

http://www.set.or.th/set/pdfnews.do?newsId=14779584022520&sequence=0



Changes as per GL

Maxime


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic

PrasannaMani wrote:http://www.set.or.th/set/pdfnews.do?newsId=14779584022520&sequence=0



Changes as per GL

thanks for clear information,  COCR 74% takeover but mandatory offer still pending because of share holders approval any time this Announcement can come at 111.00

stockback


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

Maxime wrote:
PrasannaMani wrote:http://www.set.or.th/set/pdfnews.do?newsId=14779584022520&sequence=0



Changes as per GL

thanks for clear information,  COCR 74% takeover but mandatory offer still pending because of share holders approval any time this Announcement can come at 111.00


they are not taking 74%. 29.99% first time. maybe in future they will buy more quantity

if thy want they can go for mandatory offer buying another 32K stocks 

COCR is good stock better to collect at this level.

will see......

PrasannaMani

PrasannaMani
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics


News Detail

Date/Time 01 Nov 2016 17:28:46
Headline Notification of the acquisitions of shares in Companies in Sri Lanka and Myanmar (revised)
Symbol GL
Source GL
Full Detailed News Download Full Detailed News
http://www.set.or.th/set/pdfnews.do?newsId=14779584022520&sequence=0

ruwan326

ruwan326
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

PrasannaMani wrote:
News Detail

Date/Time 01 Nov 2016 17:28:46
Headline Notification of the acquisitions of shares in Companies in Sri Lanka and Myanmar (revised)
Symbol GL
Source GL
Full Detailed News Download Full Detailed News
http://www.set.or.th/set/pdfnews.do?newsId=14779584022520&sequence=0
Still working hard on COCR??????????? Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy

EquityChamp

EquityChamp
Moderator
Moderator

EquityChamp wrote:For the benefit of all the investors I am publishing a brief financial forecast on Commercial Credit. This is based on last two years financials and Q1 16/17 reported numbers.
 
Rs Mn2014/15 FY2015/16 FYQ1 16/172016/17 FY (E)
Net II         7,255       10,225      3,003             12,270
Other operating income         1,030         1,346         219               1,615
Total operating income         8,285       11,571      3,222             13,885
Impairment & other charges         1,426         2,936         663               2,652
Net operating income         6,859         8,635      2,559             11,233
Total operating expenses         3,851         5,124      1,488               6,303
Profit before VAT         3,008         3,511      1,071               4,931
VAT on financial services            372            491         158                  690
PBT         2,636         3,020         913               4,240
Tax            442            691         241               1,103
PAT         2,194         2,329         672               3,138
EPS             7.5             7.3          2.1                   9.9
Price           50.4           42.5                  68.1
PE ratio             6.8             5.8                    6.9
Fuure valuation                    91.8

As per the above summary, COCR is estimated to report a PAT of Rs3.1 Bn for FY 2016/17 which is an increase of 35% YoY. Only the main issue I can see is a higher value of impairment and security losses that was doubled in 2015/16. Yet I am optimistic that the number will be slightly less this time but depends on the quality of the loan book. Other than that the rest of the numbers seems encouraging for a mid term investor.

Based on the forecasted earning COCR is trading at a forward PE multiple of 6.9x yet to a discount compared to sector PE. If we value the company using historical, sector and market PEs then the applicable price range based on 2016/17 projected earnings to be 62.2-133.2. The average comes to 91.8/-.

Also note that GL has expressed their confidence of COCR making a PAT of Rs3.2 Bn for this year and my forecast comes very close o that.

In conclusion, though the NAV 2/3 below the current price, the current COCR price of 68/- seems to be carrying a good intrinsic value for mid term investor who can hold for couple of months. So my recommendation is that prudent investors should try to buy this stock around current price levels or below should the stock falls further today and tomorrow.

Good luck

As illustrated with this analysis COCR is well on course to earn over 3Bn profit for this year. Q2 PAT of 693Mn and 1H 1367Bn. According to the valuations and growth projections 58/- is about 40% discount to its intrinsic value. A good AA+ investment grade stock when the market is so depressed.

Thanks

stockback


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

EquityChamp wrote:
EquityChamp wrote:For the benefit of all the investors I am publishing a brief financial forecast on Commercial Credit. This is based on last two years financials and Q1 16/17 reported numbers.
 
Rs Mn2014/15 FY2015/16 FYQ1 16/172016/17 FY (E)
Net II         7,255       10,225      3,003             12,270
Other operating income         1,030         1,346         219               1,615
Total operating income         8,285       11,571      3,222             13,885
Impairment & other charges         1,426         2,936         663               2,652
Net operating income         6,859         8,635      2,559             11,233
Total operating expenses         3,851         5,124      1,488               6,303
Profit before VAT         3,008         3,511      1,071               4,931
VAT on financial services            372            491         158                  690
PBT         2,636         3,020         913               4,240
Tax            442            691         241               1,103
PAT         2,194         2,329         672               3,138
EPS             7.5             7.3          2.1                   9.9
Price           50.4           42.5                  68.1
PE ratio             6.8             5.8                    6.9
Fuure valuation                    91.8

As per the above summary, COCR is estimated to report a PAT of Rs3.1 Bn for FY 2016/17 which is an increase of 35% YoY. Only the main issue I can see is a higher value of impairment and security losses that was doubled in 2015/16. Yet I am optimistic that the number will be slightly less this time but depends on the quality of the loan book. Other than that the rest of the numbers seems encouraging for a mid term investor.

Based on the forecasted earning COCR is trading at a forward PE multiple of 6.9x yet to a discount compared to sector PE. If we value the company using historical, sector and market PEs then the applicable price range based on 2016/17 projected earnings to be 62.2-133.2. The average comes to 91.8/-.

Also note that GL has expressed their confidence of COCR making a PAT of Rs3.2 Bn for this year and my forecast comes very close o that.

In conclusion, though the NAV 2/3 below the current price, the current COCR price of 68/- seems to be carrying a good intrinsic value for mid term investor who can hold for couple of months. So my recommendation is that prudent investors should try to buy this stock around current price levels or below should the stock falls further today and tomorrow.

Good luck

As illustrated with this analysis COCR is well on course to earn over 3Bn profit for this year. Q2 PAT of 693Mn and 1H 1367Bn. According to the valuations and growth projections 58/- is about 40% discount to its intrinsic value. A good AA+ investment grade stock when the market is so depressed.

Thanks


why director wife sold around 70.  I think that is dirty game.

or maybe some "dodu case"

deal will happen. now Group Lease has issue "Convertible debenture " to buy COCR.

clearly mention it on document. please go through this link and check. from this point selling pressure will go down. buying pressure will build.

http://www.set.or.th/set/newsdetails.do?newsId=14778709831250&language=en&country=US

anges


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

if its a gold mine better start digging

PrasannaMani

PrasannaMani
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

THAI GL - EGM will be held on 06/12/2016 .


 30/09/2016 Quarter ended Financials of COCR

https://cdn.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/1063_1478859542056.pdf



Last edited by PrasannaMani on Mon Nov 14, 2016 11:13 am; edited 1 time in total

PrasannaMani

PrasannaMani
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

stockback wrote:
EquityChamp wrote:
EquityChamp wrote:For the benefit of all the investors I am publishing a brief financial forecast on Commercial Credit. This is based on last two years financials and Q1 16/17 reported numbers.
 
Rs Mn2014/15 FY2015/16 FYQ1 16/172016/17 FY (E)
Net II         7,255       10,225      3,003             12,270
Other operating income         1,030         1,346         219               1,615
Total operating income         8,285       11,571      3,222             13,885
Impairment & other charges         1,426         2,936         663               2,652
Net operating income         6,859         8,635      2,559             11,233
Total operating expenses         3,851         5,124      1,488               6,303
Profit before VAT         3,008         3,511      1,071               4,931
VAT on financial services            372            491         158                  690
PBT         2,636         3,020         913               4,240
Tax            442            691         241               1,103
PAT         2,194         2,329         672               3,138
EPS             7.5             7.3          2.1                   9.9
Price           50.4           42.5                  68.1
PE ratio             6.8             5.8                    6.9
Fuure valuation                    91.8

As per the above summary, COCR is estimated to report a PAT of Rs3.1 Bn for FY 2016/17 which is an increase of 35% YoY. Only the main issue I can see is a higher value of impairment and security losses that was doubled in 2015/16. Yet I am optimistic that the number will be slightly less this time but depends on the quality of the loan book. Other than that the rest of the numbers seems encouraging for a mid term investor.

Based on the forecasted earning COCR is trading at a forward PE multiple of 6.9x yet to a discount compared to sector PE. If we value the company using historical, sector and market PEs then the applicable price range based on 2016/17 projected earnings to be 62.2-133.2. The average comes to 91.8/-.

Also note that GL has expressed their confidence of COCR making a PAT of Rs3.2 Bn for this year and my forecast comes very close o that.

In conclusion, though the NAV 2/3 below the current price, the current COCR price of 68/- seems to be carrying a good intrinsic value for mid term investor who can hold for couple of months. So my recommendation is that prudent investors should try to buy this stock around current price levels or below should the stock falls further today and tomorrow.

Good luck

As illustrated with this analysis COCR is well on course to earn over 3Bn profit for this year. Q2 PAT of 693Mn and 1H 1367Bn. According to the valuations and growth projections 58/- is about 40% discount to its intrinsic value. A good AA+ investment grade stock when the market is so depressed.

Thanks


why director wife sold around 70.  I think that is dirty game.

or maybe some "dodu case"

deal will happen. now Group Lease has issue "Convertible debenture " to buy COCR.

clearly mention it on document. please go through this link and check. from this point selling pressure will go down. buying pressure will build.

http://www.set.or.th/set/newsdetails.do?newsId=14778709831250&language=en&country=US

In that link pls refer page 27...

1) Date, Month and Year of the Issuance and Offering of CDs
The Company is going to enter into the Investment Agreement for the Issuance and Offering of
CDs to Creation SL after the approval by the Board of Directors of the Company (the
Investment Agreement”), under which the Company will issue and offer the CDs to Creation SL
after approval has been granted by the Extraordinary General Meeting of Shareholders No.
2/2016 to be held on 6 December 2016 and after all the conditions precedent in the Investment
Agreement have been fulfilled, including the approval for the Issuance and Offering of CDs is
granted by the SEC. The transaction is expected to be completed within March 2017...




Not that sooner .......isn't it?

stockback


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

PrasannaMani wrote:
stockback wrote:
EquityChamp wrote:
EquityChamp wrote:For the benefit of all the investors I am publishing a brief financial forecast on Commercial Credit. This is based on last two years financials and Q1 16/17 reported numbers.
 
Rs Mn2014/15 FY2015/16 FYQ1 16/172016/17 FY (E)
Net II         7,255       10,225      3,003             12,270
Other operating income         1,030         1,346         219               1,615
Total operating income         8,285       11,571      3,222             13,885
Impairment & other charges         1,426         2,936         663               2,652
Net operating income         6,859         8,635      2,559             11,233
Total operating expenses         3,851         5,124      1,488               6,303
Profit before VAT         3,008         3,511      1,071               4,931
VAT on financial services            372            491         158                  690
PBT         2,636         3,020         913               4,240
Tax            442            691         241               1,103
PAT         2,194         2,329         672               3,138
EPS             7.5             7.3          2.1                   9.9
Price           50.4           42.5                  68.1
PE ratio             6.8             5.8                    6.9
Fuure valuation                    91.8

As per the above summary, COCR is estimated to report a PAT of Rs3.1 Bn for FY 2016/17 which is an increase of 35% YoY. Only the main issue I can see is a higher value of impairment and security losses that was doubled in 2015/16. Yet I am optimistic that the number will be slightly less this time but depends on the quality of the loan book. Other than that the rest of the numbers seems encouraging for a mid term investor.

Based on the forecasted earning COCR is trading at a forward PE multiple of 6.9x yet to a discount compared to sector PE. If we value the company using historical, sector and market PEs then the applicable price range based on 2016/17 projected earnings to be 62.2-133.2. The average comes to 91.8/-.

Also note that GL has expressed their confidence of COCR making a PAT of Rs3.2 Bn for this year and my forecast comes very close o that.

In conclusion, though the NAV 2/3 below the current price, the current COCR price of 68/- seems to be carrying a good intrinsic value for mid term investor who can hold for couple of months. So my recommendation is that prudent investors should try to buy this stock around current price levels or below should the stock falls further today and tomorrow.

Good luck

As illustrated with this analysis COCR is well on course to earn over 3Bn profit for this year. Q2 PAT of 693Mn and 1H 1367Bn. According to the valuations and growth projections 58/- is about 40% discount to its intrinsic value. A good AA+ investment grade stock when the market is so depressed.

Thanks


why director wife sold around 70.  I think that is dirty game.

or maybe some "dodu case"

deal will happen. now Group Lease has issue "Convertible debenture " to buy COCR.

clearly mention it on document. please go through this link and check. from this point selling pressure will go down. buying pressure will build.

http://www.set.or.th/set/newsdetails.do?newsId=14778709831250&language=en&country=US

In that link pls refer page 27...

1) Date, Month and Year of the Issuance and Offering of CDs
The Company is going to enter into the Investment Agreement for the Issuance and Offering of
CDs to Creation SL after the approval by the Board of Directors of the Company (the
Investment Agreement”), under which the Company will issue and offer the CDs to Creation SL
after approval has been granted by the Extraordinary General Meeting of Shareholders No.
2/2016 to be held on 6 December 2016 and after all the conditions precedent in the Investment
Agreement have been fulfilled, including the approval for the Issuance and Offering of CDs is
granted by the SEC. The transaction is expected to be completed within March 2017...




Not that sooner .......isn't it?

March 2017- kiyala koheda thiyenne.

Doc saying early 2017- in that case transaction should be January- February 2017

PrasannaMani

PrasannaMani
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

stockback wrote:
PrasannaMani wrote:
stockback wrote:
EquityChamp wrote:
EquityChamp wrote:For the benefit of all the investors I am publishing a brief financial forecast on Commercial Credit. This is based on last two years financials and Q1 16/17 reported numbers.
 
Rs Mn2014/15 FY2015/16 FYQ1 16/172016/17 FY (E)
Net II         7,255       10,225      3,003             12,270
Other operating income         1,030         1,346         219               1,615
Total operating income         8,285       11,571      3,222             13,885
Impairment & other charges         1,426         2,936         663               2,652
Net operating income         6,859         8,635      2,559             11,233
Total operating expenses         3,851         5,124      1,488               6,303
Profit before VAT         3,008         3,511      1,071               4,931
VAT on financial services            372            491         158                  690
PBT         2,636         3,020         913               4,240
Tax            442            691         241               1,103
PAT         2,194         2,329         672               3,138
EPS             7.5             7.3          2.1                   9.9
Price           50.4           42.5                  68.1
PE ratio             6.8             5.8                    6.9
Fuure valuation                    91.8

As per the above summary, COCR is estimated to report a PAT of Rs3.1 Bn for FY 2016/17 which is an increase of 35% YoY. Only the main issue I can see is a higher value of impairment and security losses that was doubled in 2015/16. Yet I am optimistic that the number will be slightly less this time but depends on the quality of the loan book. Other than that the rest of the numbers seems encouraging for a mid term investor.

Based on the forecasted earning COCR is trading at a forward PE multiple of 6.9x yet to a discount compared to sector PE. If we value the company using historical, sector and market PEs then the applicable price range based on 2016/17 projected earnings to be 62.2-133.2. The average comes to 91.8/-.

Also note that GL has expressed their confidence of COCR making a PAT of Rs3.2 Bn for this year and my forecast comes very close o that.

In conclusion, though the NAV 2/3 below the current price, the current COCR price of 68/- seems to be carrying a good intrinsic value for mid term investor who can hold for couple of months. So my recommendation is that prudent investors should try to buy this stock around current price levels or below should the stock falls further today and tomorrow.

Good luck

As illustrated with this analysis COCR is well on course to earn over 3Bn profit for this year. Q2 PAT of 693Mn and 1H 1367Bn. According to the valuations and growth projections 58/- is about 40% discount to its intrinsic value. A good AA+ investment grade stock when the market is so depressed.

Thanks


why director wife sold around 70.  I think that is dirty game.

or maybe some "dodu case"

deal will happen. now Group Lease has issue "Convertible debenture " to buy COCR.

clearly mention it on document. please go through this link and check. from this point selling pressure will go down. buying pressure will build.

http://www.set.or.th/set/newsdetails.do?newsId=14778709831250&language=en&country=US

In that link pls refer page 27...

1) Date, Month and Year of the Issuance and Offering of CDs
The Company is going to enter into the Investment Agreement for the Issuance and Offering of
CDs to Creation SL after the approval by the Board of Directors of the Company (the
Investment Agreement”), under which the Company will issue and offer the CDs to Creation SL
after approval has been granted by the Extraordinary General Meeting of Shareholders No.
2/2016 to be held on 6 December 2016 and after all the conditions precedent in the Investment
Agreement have been fulfilled, including the approval for the Issuance and Offering of CDs is
granted by the SEC. The transaction is expected to be completed within March 2017...




Not that sooner .......isn't it?

March 2017- kiyala koheda thiyenne.

Doc saying early 2017- in that case transaction should be January- February 2017

Hi stockback,

I was referring the 31/10/2016 Dated Convertible Debentures Accouncement In Thai -GL

http://www.set.or.th/set/newsdetails.do?newsId=14778709831250&language=en&country=US

I think Your are referring  Press release....on 14/11/2016

http://gl.listedcompany.com/news.html/id/554387

I don't know which is more reliable .....


GL Shows New Record-High Q3 Profits, Expects Even Stronger Growth in Q4


[size=12]BackNovember 14, 2016


Thanks to continuous expansion of its growing regional businesses, SET-listed digital finance firm Group Lease Public Company Limited (GL) has reported a new record-high net profit of 260.41 million baht for the third quarter ending September, which represents a whopping 73.29% increase from the same period last year.
This marks the eight consecutive new quarterly record-high profits for GL, which prides itself as the first Thailand-based financial services company that has developed a highly efficient digital finance platform now being used to support its business expansion into Thailand’s neighboring countries of CLMV plus Indonesia and Sri Lanka.
GL Chairman and Chief Executive Mitsuji Konoshita noted that the Q3 profits would have been considerably higher at nearly 300 million baht if it had not been for one-time fees impact from several acquisitions.
He added that these acquisitions – particularly the 29.99% stake GL acquired in Commercial Credit & Finance Plc (CCF), a leading and highly profitable finance firm listed on the Colombo Stock Exchange – will help raise GL’s profits to substantially higher levels beginning in Q4.
CCF has projected to make a full-year profit of US$24 million this year and GL will start booking its share of the profits in Q4 from its 29.99% stake.
The chairman of GL’s executive board Tatsuya Konoshita explained further that the Q3 profits were also dragged by about 40 million baht of interest expenses for a new batch of US$130 million convertible debentures (CDs) that were issued for subscription by GL’s strategic partner in Indonesia, J Trust Asia (JTA).
He said the results have shown improvement in all fronts, with the Cambodian operations continuing to be the star performer while the relatively new operations in Indonesia have, surprisingly, turned positive in this quarter.
A rough breakdown of the Q3 profits shows the Cambodian operations (which combine the regular leasing of motorcycles and agricultural machineries plus loans to SME businesses) contributing the largest portion of about 130 million baht, followed by Thailand operations (about 100 million baht), plus another 15 million baht each from the Thai subsidiary Thanabun and GL Laos.
On top of acquiring the 29.99% stake in the listed Sri Lankan finance firm CCF, GL is also mounting a full-scale expansion into Myanmar by taking over a micro-finance firm and partnering with local business tycoon U Aung Moe Kyaw, owner of Century Finance and the country’s leading liquor group Myanmar Distillery, to expand into a broad range of other financial services.
Raising more funds to support the company’s aggressive regional expansion, it recently decided to issue additional CDs totaling US$70 million in private placement (PP) – comprising of US$50 million to be subscribed by its strategic partner JTA and another US$20 million for an affiliate in Sri Lanka, Creation Investments Sri Lanka (Creation SL). Carrying three-year maturity, the conversion price for these CDs is set at 70 baht per share.
[/size]

stockback


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

what is your problem?

PrasannaMani

PrasannaMani
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

stockback wrote:what is your problem?
What do u mean?

stockback


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

PrasannaMani wrote:
stockback wrote:what is your problem?
What do u mean?


I don't know which is more reliable .....


what is your problem about two docs.

PrasannaMani

PrasannaMani
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

stockback wrote:
PrasannaMani wrote:
stockback wrote:what is your problem?
What do u mean?


I don't know which is more reliable .....


what is your problem about two docs.
When do think this deal will be taken place? First docs says Early in 2017 and within March 2017.


Latest press release says ''will help Raise GL's profits in sustainability higher levels in beginning of Quarter4.'' 
GL financial year end is December 31.


So what do u think..?

stockback


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

"CCF has projected to make a full-year profit of US$24 million this year and GL will start booking its share of the profits in Q4 from its 29.99% stake."


COCR 0 Q4 is (01.01.2017  -  31.03.2017)
I think they are talking about COCR Q4. that is Q1 of group lease.


still bit confusing thing. if so latest Doc should be trust.


maybe they have a plan to add book profit Q3- COCR profits into GL this year financial report.


will see.......

TARGET


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

still coming down with the weak market.  Anyway directors wife knew the game..Dirty games and they always win where poor retailers suffer all the time.

stockback


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

TARGET wrote:still coming down with the weak market.  Anyway directors wife knew the game..Dirty games and they always win where poor retailers suffer all the time.


I am waiting to buy this stock under this market best price.

next year first quarter will give good returns. I can buy 150K stocks. if i start i can stop falling this. but I am waiting for best price. then easily move.

Think BFL. BFL drop 240-120 level very short time BFL trade over 180 level. then 50% gain.

deal price is  111. level. earnings  are progressing further. then COCR trading 85-95 possible next year first quarters. if we can buy bellow 50 level then easily 75% profit in short term. 

I can see main share holder daughter collecting stocks. if they did this quarter also. then market liquidity is going down then easily trade over 85-95 range...

TARGET


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

happy to see your financial strength SB. But tell me why you chase cocr?   why don't you try apla or tkyo?

stockback


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

TARGET wrote:happy to see your financial strength SB. But tell me why you chase cocr?   why don't you try apla or tkyo?


RSI is very low. and clean buyer at 111. 29.99% stocks. that means COCR can trade over 85 level.

why COCR down bcz of Director Wife sold. when they buying no notice. this is dirty game. I am sure they will play vary well. I will go with them....


TKYO-- now huge selling from top holder.
APLA - is good stock but liquidity is not help to stock price. then players not playing with this stock

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