COMMERCIAL CREDIT AND FINANCE PLC (COCR.N0000)

EquityChamp wrote:

EquityChamp wrote:For the benefit of all the investors I am publishing a brief financial forecast on Commercial Credit. This is based on last two years financials and Q1 16/17 reported numbers.
 

Rs Mn	2014/15 FY	2015/16 FY	Q1 16/17	2016/17 FY (E)
Net II	7,255	10,225	3,003	12,270
Other operating income	1,030	1,346	219	1,615
Total operating income	8,285	11,571	3,222	13,885
Impairment & other charges	1,426	2,936	663	2,652
Net operating income	6,859	8,635	2,559	11,233
Total operating expenses	3,851	5,124	1,488	6,303
Profit before VAT	3,008	3,511	1,071	4,931
VAT on financial services	372	491	158	690
PBT	2,636	3,020	913	4,240
Tax	442	691	241	1,103
PAT	2,194	2,329	672	3,138
EPS	7.5	7.3	2.1	9.9
Price	50.4	42.5		68.1
PE ratio	6.8	5.8		6.9
Fuure valuation				91.8

As per the above summary, COCR is estimated to report a PAT of Rs3.1 Bn for FY 2016/17 which is an increase of 35% YoY. Only the main issue I can see is a higher value of impairment and security losses that was doubled in 2015/16. Yet I am optimistic that the number will be slightly less this time but depends on the quality of the loan book. Other than that the rest of the numbers seems encouraging for a mid term investor.

Based on the forecasted earning COCR is trading at a forward PE multiple of 6.9x yet to a discount compared to sector PE. If we value the company using historical, sector and market PEs then the applicable price range based on 2016/17 projected earnings to be 62.2-133.2. The average comes to 91.8/-.

Also note that GL has expressed their confidence of COCR making a PAT of Rs3.2 Bn for this year and my forecast comes very close o that.

In conclusion, though the NAV 2/3 below the current price, the current COCR price of 68/- seems to be carrying a good intrinsic value for mid term investor who can hold for couple of months. So my recommendation is that prudent investors should try to buy this stock around current price levels or below should the stock falls further today and tomorrow.

Good luck

As illustrated with this analysis COCR is well on course to earn over 3Bn profit for this year. Q2 PAT of 693Mn and 1H 1367Bn. According to the valuations and growth projections 58/- is about 40% discount to its intrinsic value. A good AA+ investment grade stock when the market is so depressed.

Thanks

stockback wrote:

EquityChamp wrote:

EquityChamp wrote:For the benefit of all the investors I am publishing a brief financial forecast on Commercial Credit. This is based on last two years financials and Q1 16/17 reported numbers.
 

Rs Mn	2014/15 FY	2015/16 FY	Q1 16/17	2016/17 FY (E)
Net II	7,255	10,225	3,003	12,270
Other operating income	1,030	1,346	219	1,615
Total operating income	8,285	11,571	3,222	13,885
Impairment & other charges	1,426	2,936	663	2,652
Net operating income	6,859	8,635	2,559	11,233
Total operating expenses	3,851	5,124	1,488	6,303
Profit before VAT	3,008	3,511	1,071	4,931
VAT on financial services	372	491	158	690
PBT	2,636	3,020	913	4,240
Tax	442	691	241	1,103
PAT	2,194	2,329	672	3,138
EPS	7.5	7.3	2.1	9.9
Price	50.4	42.5		68.1
PE ratio	6.8	5.8		6.9
Fuure valuation				91.8

As per the above summary, COCR is estimated to report a PAT of Rs3.1 Bn for FY 2016/17 which is an increase of 35% YoY. Only the main issue I can see is a higher value of impairment and security losses that was doubled in 2015/16. Yet I am optimistic that the number will be slightly less this time but depends on the quality of the loan book. Other than that the rest of the numbers seems encouraging for a mid term investor.

Based on the forecasted earning COCR is trading at a forward PE multiple of 6.9x yet to a discount compared to sector PE. If we value the company using historical, sector and market PEs then the applicable price range based on 2016/17 projected earnings to be 62.2-133.2. The average comes to 91.8/-.

Also note that GL has expressed their confidence of COCR making a PAT of Rs3.2 Bn for this year and my forecast comes very close o that.

In conclusion, though the NAV 2/3 below the current price, the current COCR price of 68/- seems to be carrying a good intrinsic value for mid term investor who can hold for couple of months. So my recommendation is that prudent investors should try to buy this stock around current price levels or below should the stock falls further today and tomorrow.

Good luck

As illustrated with this analysis COCR is well on course to earn over 3Bn profit for this year. Q2 PAT of 693Mn and 1H 1367Bn. According to the valuations and growth projections 58/- is about 40% discount to its intrinsic value. A good AA+ investment grade stock when the market is so depressed.

Thanks

why director wife sold around 70.  I think that is dirty game.

or maybe some "dodu case"

deal will happen. now Group Lease has issue "Convertible debenture " to buy COCR.

clearly mention it on document. please go through this link and check. from this point selling pressure will go down. buying pressure will build.

http://www.set.or.th/set/newsdetails.do?newsId=14778709831250&language=en&country=US

PrasannaMani wrote:

stockback wrote:

EquityChamp wrote:

EquityChamp wrote:For the benefit of all the investors I am publishing a brief financial forecast on Commercial Credit. This is based on last two years financials and Q1 16/17 reported numbers.
 

Rs Mn	2014/15 FY	2015/16 FY	Q1 16/17	2016/17 FY (E)
Net II	7,255	10,225	3,003	12,270
Other operating income	1,030	1,346	219	1,615
Total operating income	8,285	11,571	3,222	13,885
Impairment & other charges	1,426	2,936	663	2,652
Net operating income	6,859	8,635	2,559	11,233
Total operating expenses	3,851	5,124	1,488	6,303
Profit before VAT	3,008	3,511	1,071	4,931
VAT on financial services	372	491	158	690
PBT	2,636	3,020	913	4,240
Tax	442	691	241	1,103
PAT	2,194	2,329	672	3,138
EPS	7.5	7.3	2.1	9.9
Price	50.4	42.5		68.1
PE ratio	6.8	5.8		6.9
Fuure valuation				91.8

As per the above summary, COCR is estimated to report a PAT of Rs3.1 Bn for FY 2016/17 which is an increase of 35% YoY. Only the main issue I can see is a higher value of impairment and security losses that was doubled in 2015/16. Yet I am optimistic that the number will be slightly less this time but depends on the quality of the loan book. Other than that the rest of the numbers seems encouraging for a mid term investor.

Based on the forecasted earning COCR is trading at a forward PE multiple of 6.9x yet to a discount compared to sector PE. If we value the company using historical, sector and market PEs then the applicable price range based on 2016/17 projected earnings to be 62.2-133.2. The average comes to 91.8/-.

Also note that GL has expressed their confidence of COCR making a PAT of Rs3.2 Bn for this year and my forecast comes very close o that.

In conclusion, though the NAV 2/3 below the current price, the current COCR price of 68/- seems to be carrying a good intrinsic value for mid term investor who can hold for couple of months. So my recommendation is that prudent investors should try to buy this stock around current price levels or below should the stock falls further today and tomorrow.

Good luck

As illustrated with this analysis COCR is well on course to earn over 3Bn profit for this year. Q2 PAT of 693Mn and 1H 1367Bn. According to the valuations and growth projections 58/- is about 40% discount to its intrinsic value. A good AA+ investment grade stock when the market is so depressed.

Thanks

why director wife sold around 70.  I think that is dirty game.

or maybe some "dodu case"

deal will happen. now Group Lease has issue "Convertible debenture " to buy COCR.

clearly mention it on document. please go through this link and check. from this point selling pressure will go down. buying pressure will build.

http://www.set.or.th/set/newsdetails.do?newsId=14778709831250&language=en&country=US

In that link pls refer page 27...

1) Date, Month and Year of the Issuance and Offering of CDs
The Company is going to enter into the Investment Agreement for the Issuance and Offering of
CDs to Creation SL after the approval by the Board of Directors of the Company (the
“Investment Agreement”), under which the Company will issue and offer the CDs to Creation SL
after approval has been granted by the Extraordinary General Meeting of Shareholders No.
2/2016 to be held on 6 December 2016 and after all the conditions precedent in the Investment
Agreement have been fulfilled, including the approval for the Issuance and Offering of CDs is
granted by the SEC. The transaction is expected to be completed within March 2017...




Not that sooner .......isn't it?

stockback wrote:

PrasannaMani wrote:

stockback wrote:

EquityChamp wrote:

EquityChamp wrote:For the benefit of all the investors I am publishing a brief financial forecast on Commercial Credit. This is based on last two years financials and Q1 16/17 reported numbers.
 

Rs Mn	2014/15 FY	2015/16 FY	Q1 16/17	2016/17 FY (E)
Net II	7,255	10,225	3,003	12,270
Other operating income	1,030	1,346	219	1,615
Total operating income	8,285	11,571	3,222	13,885
Impairment & other charges	1,426	2,936	663	2,652
Net operating income	6,859	8,635	2,559	11,233
Total operating expenses	3,851	5,124	1,488	6,303
Profit before VAT	3,008	3,511	1,071	4,931
VAT on financial services	372	491	158	690
PBT	2,636	3,020	913	4,240
Tax	442	691	241	1,103
PAT	2,194	2,329	672	3,138
EPS	7.5	7.3	2.1	9.9
Price	50.4	42.5		68.1
PE ratio	6.8	5.8		6.9
Fuure valuation				91.8

As per the above summary, COCR is estimated to report a PAT of Rs3.1 Bn for FY 2016/17 which is an increase of 35% YoY. Only the main issue I can see is a higher value of impairment and security losses that was doubled in 2015/16. Yet I am optimistic that the number will be slightly less this time but depends on the quality of the loan book. Other than that the rest of the numbers seems encouraging for a mid term investor.

Based on the forecasted earning COCR is trading at a forward PE multiple of 6.9x yet to a discount compared to sector PE. If we value the company using historical, sector and market PEs then the applicable price range based on 2016/17 projected earnings to be 62.2-133.2. The average comes to 91.8/-.

Also note that GL has expressed their confidence of COCR making a PAT of Rs3.2 Bn for this year and my forecast comes very close o that.

In conclusion, though the NAV 2/3 below the current price, the current COCR price of 68/- seems to be carrying a good intrinsic value for mid term investor who can hold for couple of months. So my recommendation is that prudent investors should try to buy this stock around current price levels or below should the stock falls further today and tomorrow.

Good luck

As illustrated with this analysis COCR is well on course to earn over 3Bn profit for this year. Q2 PAT of 693Mn and 1H 1367Bn. According to the valuations and growth projections 58/- is about 40% discount to its intrinsic value. A good AA+ investment grade stock when the market is so depressed.

Thanks

why director wife sold around 70.  I think that is dirty game.

or maybe some "dodu case"

deal will happen. now Group Lease has issue "Convertible debenture " to buy COCR.

clearly mention it on document. please go through this link and check. from this point selling pressure will go down. buying pressure will build.

http://www.set.or.th/set/newsdetails.do?newsId=14778709831250&language=en&country=US

In that link pls refer page 27...

1) Date, Month and Year of the Issuance and Offering of CDs
The Company is going to enter into the Investment Agreement for the Issuance and Offering of
CDs to Creation SL after the approval by the Board of Directors of the Company (the
“Investment Agreement”), under which the Company will issue and offer the CDs to Creation SL
after approval has been granted by the Extraordinary General Meeting of Shareholders No.
2/2016 to be held on 6 December 2016 and after all the conditions precedent in the Investment
Agreement have been fulfilled, including the approval for the Issuance and Offering of CDs is
granted by the SEC. The transaction is expected to be completed within March 2017...




Not that sooner .......isn't it?

March 2017- kiyala koheda thiyenne.

Doc saying early 2017- in that case transaction should be January- February 2017

GL Shows New Record-High Q3 Profits, Expects Even Stronger Growth in Q4

stockback wrote:what is your problem?

PrasannaMani wrote:

stockback wrote:what is your problem?

What do u mean?

stockback wrote:

PrasannaMani wrote:

stockback wrote:what is your problem?

What do u mean?

I don't know which is more reliable .....


what is your problem about two docs.

TARGET wrote:still coming down with the weak market.  Anyway directors wife knew the game..Dirty games and they always win where poor retailers suffer all the time.

TARGET wrote:happy to see your financial strength SB. But tell me why you chase cocr?   why don't you try apla or tkyo?

Teller wrote:Now this is the time to enter the share.  COCR can give 15_20℅ return easily . Rumors says that they are going to take a banking licence.

Chinwi wrote:

Teller wrote:Now this is the time to enter the share.  COCR can give 15_20℅ return easily . Rumors says that they are going to take a banking licence.

If a finance company becomes a bank is it a good sign or bad sign w.r.t. earnings  ? ; short-medium term.

ONTHEMONEY wrote:Hi Guys!

Market sentiments have kept me away and sleep actually.

BTW as Teller mentioned, I have also heard from a very reliable source that #COCR is to get a new license to enter in to banking. 

However, the banking industry runs at a very competitive sentiment and I would believe #COCR will go for strong consolidation|merger with a leading bank based on their asset strength!


Good Luck

Football Star wrote:Guys could someone explain me why the rush in COCR, and price also going up..any reason why the demand is high when the proposed deal is still hanging on a thread..?

Football Star wrote:Guys could someone explain me why the rush in COCR, and price also going up..any reason why the demand is high when the proposed deal is still hanging on a thread..?

Football Star wrote:Guys could someone explain me why the rush in COCR, and price also going up..any reason why the demand is high when the proposed deal is still hanging on a thread..?