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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » LANKEM DEVELOPMENTS PLC (LDEV.N0000)

LANKEM DEVELOPMENTS PLC (LDEV.N0000)

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41LANKEM DEVELOPMENTS PLC (LDEV.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: LANKEM DEVELOPMENTS PLC (LDEV.N0000) Sun Mar 20, 2011 9:59 am

tkc


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@swan03 wrote:
@tkc wrote:
@swan03 wrote:
@banarahu wrote:Can anyone tell something about Lankem Developments at the moment... bounce
more buyers and no one to sell after the last trade date... what are the suggestions in future trades... Shocked

What I can see is, Its goin up Smile
Yes I just missed it....

Me too. Waiting until it comes down again Smile.
I want to buy LDEV...But i never wish to come down....Bcz there are lots of my friends hold LDEV in this forum.... Smile

42LANKEM DEVELOPMENTS PLC (LDEV.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: LANKEM DEVELOPMENTS PLC (LDEV.N0000) Sun Mar 20, 2011 10:07 am

swan03


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@tkc wrote:
@swan03 wrote:
@tkc wrote:
@swan03 wrote:
@banarahu wrote:Can anyone tell something about Lankem Developments at the moment... bounce
more buyers and no one to sell after the last trade date... what are the suggestions in future trades... Shocked

What I can see is, Its goin up Smile
Yes I just missed it....

Me too. Waiting until it comes down again Smile.
I want to buy LDEV...But i never wish to come down....Bcz there are lots of my friends hold LDEV in this forum.... Smile

Sorry Bro, I didnt mean that. What is the price to buy them in the current market?

43LANKEM DEVELOPMENTS PLC (LDEV.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: LANKEM DEVELOPMENTS PLC (LDEV.N0000) Sun Mar 20, 2011 10:11 am

tkc


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@swan03 wrote:
@tkc wrote:
@swan03 wrote:
@tkc wrote:
@swan03 wrote:
@banarahu wrote:Can anyone tell something about Lankem Developments at the moment... bounce
more buyers and no one to sell after the last trade date... what are the suggestions in future trades... Shocked

What I can see is, Its goin up Smile
Yes I just missed it....

Me too. Waiting until it comes down again Smile.
I want to buy LDEV...But i never wish to come down....Bcz there are lots of my friends hold LDEV in this forum.... Smile

Sorry Bro, I didnt mean that. What is the price to buy them in the current market?
I know that swan....you are a good friend.... Smile

44LANKEM DEVELOPMENTS PLC (LDEV.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: LANKEM DEVELOPMENTS PLC (LDEV.N0000) Sun Mar 20, 2011 10:15 am

swan03


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@tkc wrote:
@swan03 wrote:
@tkc wrote:
@swan03 wrote:
@tkc wrote:
@swan03 wrote:
@banarahu wrote:Can anyone tell something about Lankem Developments at the moment... bounce
more buyers and no one to sell after the last trade date... what are the suggestions in future trades... Shocked

What I can see is, Its goin up Smile
Yes I just missed it....

Me too. Waiting until it comes down again Smile.
I want to buy LDEV...But i never wish to come down....Bcz there are lots of my friends hold LDEV in this forum.... Smile

Sorry Bro, I didnt mean that. What is the price to buy them in the current market?
I know that swan....you are a good friend.... Smile


sunny sunny

45LANKEM DEVELOPMENTS PLC (LDEV.N0000) - Page 3 Empty still no proper answer... :!: Sun Mar 20, 2011 10:42 am

banarahu


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Rolling Eyes scratch clown

46LANKEM DEVELOPMENTS PLC (LDEV.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: LANKEM DEVELOPMENTS PLC (LDEV.N0000) Sun Mar 20, 2011 11:32 am

swan03


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@banarahu wrote: Rolling Eyes scratch clown


scratch scratch scratch scratch

47LANKEM DEVELOPMENTS PLC (LDEV.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: LANKEM DEVELOPMENTS PLC (LDEV.N0000) Sun Mar 20, 2011 11:44 am

Genting


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
LDEV price hike is due to its rights issue of 15:1 at Rs25.
If we take LDEV price as 50, its theoretical ex right value will be 26.5

Now its price is 70 and that makes it rs27.8

TO happen all this, people have to buy 15 shares at 25, for each share that they hold.

if you hold 100 shares, you have to invest 37,500.
If you got 1000, its 375,000!

Once you invest that amount, your share amount will get multiply by16.
ex : if you had 1000 shares, you will have to pay 375,000 and you will end up having 16000 shares!

these 16000 shares will have a theoretical price of 27.8 each (using the current value of 70)

The questions comes then.. what are you going to do with this?

Now the illiquid share is no longer illiquid.. plenty of shares in the market..

if you can sell your shares at 27.8, you are break even
If you can sell higher value ... you get a profit!
If sell less than 27.8.... you make a loss...

So, before investing, you have to think at what price you can exit in the future..
Depends on that you can buy LDEV...

Im my view, LDEV could be sell around 30.

But, we have to do a huge investment to buy shares at 25... therefore now buying LDEV shares at 70 is too expensive for me.



48LANKEM DEVELOPMENTS PLC (LDEV.N0000) - Page 3 Empty LDEV Ex rights price??? Sun Mar 20, 2011 12:42 pm

investor0000


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
What will be the ex rights price of LDEV? When will it be?

49LANKEM DEVELOPMENTS PLC (LDEV.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: LANKEM DEVELOPMENTS PLC (LDEV.N0000) Sun Mar 20, 2011 1:16 pm

banarahu

banarahu
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@Genting wrote:LDEV price hike is due to its rights issue of 15:1 at Rs25.
If we take LDEV price as 50, its theoretical ex right value will be 26.5

Now its price is 70 and that makes it rs27.8

TO happen all this, people have to buy 15 shares at 25, for each share that they hold.

if you hold 100 shares, you have to invest 37,500.
If you got 1000, its 375,000!

Once you invest that amount, your share amount will get multiply by16.
ex : if you had 1000 shares, you will have to pay 375,000 and you will end up having 16000 shares!

these 16000 shares will have a theoretical price of 27.8 each (using the current value of 70)

The questions comes then.. what are you going to do with this?

Now the illiquid share is no longer illiquid.. plenty of shares in the market..

if you can sell your shares at 27.8, you are break even
If you can sell higher value ... you get a profit!
If sell less than 27.8.... you make a loss...

So, before investing, you have to think at what price you can exit in the future..
Depends on that you can buy LDEV...

Im my view, LDEV could be sell around 30.

But, we have to do a huge investment to buy shares at 25... therefore now buying LDEV shares at 70 is too expensive for me.




thnx... got it Smile

Have to be there, will watch whats happening in the morning ... bounce

50LANKEM DEVELOPMENTS PLC (LDEV.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: LANKEM DEVELOPMENTS PLC (LDEV.N0000) Sun Mar 20, 2011 10:50 pm

kansai


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
Some times market behave very strangely. I think the buying price may depends upon the fact that, at what level of the process you wish to realize your capital and the profit ( since the LDEV is on a rights issue). I personally feel it will go up further due to this mega rights issue. Watapota share price raised nearly 8 to 10 times with introduction of more or less a similar right is issue. This is just their first announcement. May be go up further with the second announcement. Buy the way this is just my personnel view.

51LANKEM DEVELOPMENTS PLC (LDEV.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: LANKEM DEVELOPMENTS PLC (LDEV.N0000) Sun Mar 20, 2011 11:22 pm

Quibit


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Fully agree with your below analysis, many of the current shareholders of LDEV are not potential investors in the rights issue. They are just punters.. Trying make big bucks from trading... You need to watch it carefully. lankem need to subscribe for 50% of the rights..and balance will be available to investors. Can it be another wapo.. If so it has to be better than wapo. LDEV has a better story than WAPO.. Question is how many people will believe it???

It could be another WAPO or it could be another MARA (Maravilla Resort).. Which one do you prefer...... We will see it in few days.

@Genting wrote:LDEV price hike is due to its rights issue of 15:1 at Rs25.
If we take LDEV price as 50, its theoretical ex right value will be 26.5

Now its price is 70 and that makes it rs27.8

TO happen all this, people have to buy 15 shares at 25, for each share that they hold.

if you hold 100 shares, you have to invest 37,500.
If you got 1000, its 375,000!

Once you invest that amount, your share amount will get multiply by16.
ex : if you had 1000 shares, you will have to pay 375,000 and you will end up having 16000 shares!

these 16000 shares will have a theoretical price of 27.8 each (using the current value of 70)

The questions comes then.. what are you going to do with this?

Now the illiquid share is no longer illiquid.. plenty of shares in the market..

if you can sell your shares at 27.8, you are break even
If you can sell higher value ... you get a profit!
If sell less than 27.8.... you make a loss...

So, before investing, you have to think at what price you can exit in the future..
Depends on that you can buy LDEV...

Im my view, LDEV could be sell around 30.

But, we have to do a huge investment to buy shares at 25... therefore now buying LDEV shares at 70 is too expensive for me.



[b]

52LANKEM DEVELOPMENTS PLC (LDEV.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: LANKEM DEVELOPMENTS PLC (LDEV.N0000) Mon Mar 21, 2011 12:00 pm

banarahu

banarahu
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Unbelievable.... All transactions competed within 5 mins... No

53LANKEM DEVELOPMENTS PLC (LDEV.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: LANKEM DEVELOPMENTS PLC (LDEV.N0000) Mon Mar 21, 2011 2:13 pm

Rajitha

Rajitha
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Its the expectations and the lying around cash that investors does not want to invest till end of month fueling this share! I also bought 500 shares of LDEV when I saw the announcement ( because of WAPO effect to an extent) and after doing some calculations about the rights price I saw its not really an attractive rights price for the current share price ( around rs 55). So I sold what I bought with a small loss! Now I really regret it.
I actually today bought another 400 shares around rs 75 after checking the market as I believe the market sentiment is quite strong for the share although the analysis I did not back the share! If what I expect continues like this I bet it will become something similar to WAPO although the WAPO rights price and its illiquidity was way better than this!
Just remember GREED and FEAR is what drives this market! Fundermentals play really a small role ATM.

54LANKEM DEVELOPMENTS PLC (LDEV.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: LANKEM DEVELOPMENTS PLC (LDEV.N0000) Tue Mar 22, 2011 6:35 am

DK


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
hmm well, either way seems like I am the one who should eat my words Smile

55LANKEM DEVELOPMENTS PLC (LDEV.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: LANKEM DEVELOPMENTS PLC (LDEV.N0000) Tue Mar 22, 2011 10:53 am

banarahu

banarahu
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
went like a rocket...

56LANKEM DEVELOPMENTS PLC (LDEV.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: LANKEM DEVELOPMENTS PLC (LDEV.N0000) Tue Mar 22, 2011 11:23 am

Monster

Monster
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
LDEV = WAPO version 2.0 Twisted Evil

Quibit


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Please see below the implication of the two separate announcement made by Lankem Development (LDEV) in relation to the recent Rights Issue.

Initial Announcement
Rights Issue
22 March 2011
Date of Initial Announcement :- 09-Mar-2011
Proportion:- Fifteen (15) new ordinary shares for every One (01) share held
Issue Price:- Rs.25.00/-
The number of shares to be issued :- 103,500,000 ordinary shares
EGM / Provisional Allotment: 21.Apr.2011
XR: 25-Apr-2011
Dispatch of Provisional Letter of Allotment : 29.Apr.2011
Rights Trading Commences on : 06.May.2011
Renunciation: 13.May.2011
Last Date of Acceptance & Payment: 16.May.2011

Latest Announcement
Rights Issue
07 June 2011
Please note that 53,100,000 Ordinary Shares of the Company were listed on 7th June 2011, pursuant to a 15:1 Rights Issue.

What does this mean?
Carefully read the amounts highlighted in blue. This means that although LDEV planned to issue 103.5mn share by way of a rights issue, only 53.5mn shares were issued and subscribed. The Rights issue was a failure and not fully subscribed.

What are the Implications
a) Share capital my have not got diluted as previously expected.
b) Only few objective of rights issue would have been met. Please read the purpose of the Rights issue. http://www.cse.lk/cmt/uploadAnnounceFiles/5851299655983_446.pdf
c)LDEV may have acquired the Agrapatana Plantation from the proceeds of the rights subscription but other plans of Hydro Power and Leisure project may not materialize
d) As the subscription would have predominantly come from Lankem Group Companies, the free float will remain almost the same.
e) LDEV may be renamed as the Agarapatna Plantation and may probably be the only plantation company that may be available at these price levels

Current Share Price offer greater discount than expected. How?
Please see below the two separate calculations for the expected and adjusted theoretical ex-right price of LDEV subsequent to the Rights issue.

Expected Theoretical Ex-rights Price based on full subscription of rights.

Cum Rights Price............... 1 Share = Rs 75
Rights Proportion.............. 15: 1
Proposed Rights................15 Shares at Rs 25 = Rs 375
Ex-Rights.............................16 Shares = Rs 450
Ex-Rights Price........................ Rs 28/- per share

Real Theoretical Ex-Rights Price due to under subscription of rights

Issued Share Capital Prior to the Rights Issue. = 6.9mn Shares
Actual Rights Subscribed = 53.5mn
Actual Rights proportion = 53.5mn shares; 6.9mn shares = 7.75 shares : 1 Share
7.75 Shares@ Rs 25/= ................. Rs 194/=
Cum Rights Price...........................Rs 75/=
Cost of 8.75 shares.........................Rs 269/=
Real Ex-rights Price....................... Rs 31/=

The Market Price of LDEV as at 17th June 2011 was Rs 21/=. Therefore one may consider that LDEV trade at a larger discount to its theoretical valuations.



Last edited by Quibit on Sun Jun 19, 2011 9:02 pm; edited 1 time in total

58LANKEM DEVELOPMENTS PLC (LDEV.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: LANKEM DEVELOPMENTS PLC (LDEV.N0000) Sun Jun 19, 2011 9:02 pm

MoneyLover

MoneyLover
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
If it is not fully subcribed, how can we get to know whether the parent company (LANKEM) has suscribed to the Right Issue? Was thare any annunsment in that regard?

59LANKEM DEVELOPMENTS PLC (LDEV.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: LANKEM DEVELOPMENTS PLC (LDEV.N0000) Sun Jun 19, 2011 9:03 pm

xhora

xhora
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
good analysis rep from me.

But if this right issue was a failure how can we expect good returns from LDEV since objectives of right issue will not be realized.

60LANKEM DEVELOPMENTS PLC (LDEV.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: LANKEM DEVELOPMENTS PLC (LDEV.N0000) Sun Jun 19, 2011 9:23 pm

Fresher


Moderator
Moderator
Even though we calculate the ex rights price based on the price before the XR date, shouldn't we consider that it went up day by day since the day of announcement for many days?

what are your comments on this

61LANKEM DEVELOPMENTS PLC (LDEV.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: LANKEM DEVELOPMENTS PLC (LDEV.N0000) Sun Jun 19, 2011 9:52 pm

MoneyLover

MoneyLover
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/446_1306838438203.pdf

Accordingly NAPS was only Rs. 0.76* (Seventy Six cents) before the Right Issue of 25:1 at 25/-.


Net Assets of Rs. 5,264,000 and No of shares in issue was 6,900,000.

Subscribed Rights 53,100,000 (assumed that includes rights of parents 50.13%) at the rate of 25/- infused fresh capital of Rs. 1,327,500,000.

Adjusted Net Assets after Right Issue = Rs. 1,332,764,000/- (Rs. 5,264,000 + Rs. 1,327,500,000)Adjusted No of shares in issue = 60,000,000 (6,900,000 + 53,100,000)
Adjusted NAPS = 22.21

If LDEV trades at 21/- it trades below the NAPS as well.

62LANKEM DEVELOPMENTS PLC (LDEV.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: LANKEM DEVELOPMENTS PLC (LDEV.N0000) Sun Jun 19, 2011 9:59 pm

Chabbi

Chabbi
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@ Qb i have small question.

I have seen in past Right Issue documents when the Right Issue is gone on under-subscription then major share holder or another party will subscribe the remaining unsubscribe shares. but with this Right Issue major holder didn't .........

Is it says that major holder didn't keep faith with LDEV ???

Let me knw Smile

63LANKEM DEVELOPMENTS PLC (LDEV.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: LANKEM DEVELOPMENTS PLC (LDEV.N0000) Sun Jun 19, 2011 10:10 pm

Quibit


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Chabbi wrote:@ Qb i have small question.

I have seen in past Right Issue documents when the Right Issue is gone on under-subscription then major share holder or another party will subscribe the remaining unsubscribe shares. but with this Right Issue major holder didn't .........

Is it says that major holder didn't keep faith with LDEV ???
Let me knw Smile

Major shareholder did subscribe and others didn't?.. We may have to look at the latest shareholders list to know that. I am sure Lankem may have wanted to keep the ownership of the plantation with them and would have subscribed for their portion. Question is whether there was a underwriting bank that may have taken up a portion of the rights. But the real truth is that only 53.1mn shares were issued and subscribed as against the proposed 103.5mn rights issue.

64LANKEM DEVELOPMENTS PLC (LDEV.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: LANKEM DEVELOPMENTS PLC (LDEV.N0000) Sun Jun 19, 2011 10:18 pm

Chabbi

Chabbi
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Quibit wrote:
@Chabbi wrote:@ Qb i have small question.

I have seen in past Right Issue documents when the Right Issue is gone on under-subscription then major share holder or another party will subscribe the remaining unsubscribe shares. but with this Right Issue major holder didn't .........

Is it says that major holder didn't keep faith with LDEV ???
Let me knw Smile

Major shareholder did subscribe and others didn't?.. We may have to look at the latest shareholders list to know that. I am sure Lankem may have wanted to keep the ownership of the plantation with them and would have subscribed for their portion. Question is whether there was a underwriting bank that may have taken up a portion of the rights. But the real truth is that only 53.1mn shares were issued and subscribed as against the proposed 103.5mn rights issue.

the underlined would may wud be reason Sad

but i can remember when LDEV.R rights were traded on last day thr was a pending order for more than 10+ Mn shares @ 0.10/= ........

for my point of view Major holder shd subscribe the existing shares in right issue Sad bt thy ddnt ....... its sounds unfaith with the organization.

Now thy failed wt thy planned Sad Embarassed Embarassed Embarassed

65LANKEM DEVELOPMENTS PLC (LDEV.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: LANKEM DEVELOPMENTS PLC (LDEV.N0000) Sun Jun 19, 2011 10:20 pm

Gaja


Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
interesting point so major part was not subscribed for?

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