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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » LCEM’S Future Depending On Its Financial Statements Results Not Mere On Financial Statements Release

LCEM’S Future Depending On Its Financial Statements Results Not Mere On Financial Statements Release

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sureshot


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Miss-Sangeetha wrote:Equity Champ long standing member of this forum, respected moderator, earlier taught the forum members, selecting the share with fundamentals, Charts analysis and discussing the good results of the company reporting, now he, himself turned into Equity Champ to Equity Munch, blindly following the Teller’s PV inner analysis. Finally going to bullish around hell

Now already 1.2 millions of LCEM @ 4.70 downloaded on Equity Munch's head by big investors        


SANGEETAA AKKAY........

please sort your personal problems with EC        away from this forum.
dont spoil the LCEM share momentum   ...

if its worth buy the share  or stay @ your  kitchen....








sanjulanka


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
කන්කසන්තුරෙයි ගිහිල්ලද කියලයි බැලුවෙ.ඔහොම යන්.. Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy

EquityChamp


Moderator
Moderator
@Miss-Sangeetha wrote:Equity Champ long standing member of this forum, respected moderator, earlier taught the forum members, selecting the share with fundamentals, Charts analysis and discussing the good results of the company reporting, now he, himself turned into Equity Champ to Equity Munch, blindly following the Teller’s PV inner analysis. Finally going to bullish around hell

Now already 1.2 millions of LCEM @ 4.70 downloaded on Equity Munch's head by big investors        


Thought of writing a bit of a reply on your comment. This is a public forum and members are expressing their views. One members view can be totally different from the others and some other views can be totally against from us. That is normal and absolutely natural. We need to respect the other ideologies as well and if not agreeing with those views then we have the total freedom to reject based on valued arguments.

I am totally respecting your view and I need to say that I have my own case for my view as well. Therefore if the underlying assumptions are not correct then the members have the total freedom to form a different view.

Let's analyze the situation and see whether my view is a total bullshit or not for someone to have a very harsh look at it. According to the historical financials available up to 31st December 2016 revealed that the company had not good financial backing and anyone referring to those financials would obviously know that the market price of LCEM is not something justified by its earnings but by investors' perceptions as well as many speculative reasons. Upon all of these LCEM was trading @ 5.50 as at 22nd March 18. Then on 23rd the SEC enforcement action was announced. The price dropped to 3.30 by 27th March. Within 3 market days the price crashed by 40%. Since there was nothing other than the said announcement a logical person can attribute the fall to the said announcement.

The announcement was said that in case the financials were not released by 29th March the trading of the stock will be suspended. Its very clear that investors panicked and who don't want to see their money tied up on LCEM due to this suspension had dumped their holdings to recover whatever moneys available. Then by 29th the stock start its recovery and recovered up to 3.80 mainly due to the speculation that the company will comply with the announcement and submit the results before the deadline. So finally the same has happened.

Therefore if anyone look at these incidents in a sequential order should understand that when the stock price crashed by 40% due to panic and uncertainty and when the same uncertainty is no more then the stock price should move to where it was before the announcement. This is the simple logic based on which I have made my view. And as expected the stock moved to 5/- after the release of financials before closing @ 4.30 up by 50 cents. From now onwards it will be the demand-supply forces that will decide whether LCEM will move back to 22nd price of 5.50 or it will continue to stay below 4 or 3.50 due to its financial performance in year 2017.

I will leave it to market forces to generate the answer.

ruwan326


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@EquityChamp wrote:
@Miss-Sangeetha wrote:Equity Champ long standing member of this forum, respected moderator, earlier taught the forum members, selecting the share with fundamentals, Charts analysis and discussing the good results of the company reporting, now he, himself turned into Equity Champ to Equity Munch, blindly following the Teller’s PV inner analysis. Finally going to bullish around hell

Now already 1.2 millions of LCEM @ 4.70 downloaded on Equity Munch's head by big investors        


Thought of writing a bit of a reply on your comment. This is a public forum and members are expressing their views. One members view can be totally different from the others and some other views can be totally against from us. That is normal and absolutely natural. We need to respect the other ideologies as well and if not agreeing with those views then we have the total freedom to reject based on valued arguments.

I am totally respecting your view and I need to say that I have my own case for my view as well. Therefore if the underlying assumptions are not correct then the members have the total freedom to form a different view.

Let's analyze the situation and see whether my view is a total bullshit or not for someone to have a very harsh look at it. According to the historical financials available up to 31st December 2016 revealed that the company had not good financial backing and anyone referring to those financials would obviously know that the market price of LCEM is not something justified by its earnings but by investors' perceptions as well as many speculative reasons. Upon all of these LCEM was trading @ 5.50 as at 22nd March 18. Then on 23rd the SEC enforcement action was announced. The price dropped to 3.30 by 27th March. Within 3 market days the price crashed by 40%. Since there was nothing other than the said announcement a logical person can attribute the fall to the said announcement.

The announcement was said that in case the financials were not released by 29th March the trading of the stock will be suspended. Its very clear that investors panicked and who don't want to see their money tied up on LCEM due to this suspension had dumped their holdings to recover whatever moneys available. Then by 29th the stock start its recovery and recovered up to 3.80 mainly due to the speculation that the company will comply with the announcement and submit the results before the deadline. So finally the same has happened.

Therefore if anyone look at these incidents in a sequential order should understand that when the stock price crashed by 40% due to panic and uncertainty and when the same uncertainty is no more then the stock price should move to where it was before the announcement. This is the simple logic based on which I have made my view. And as expected the stock moved to 5/- after the release of financials before closing @ 4.30 up by 50 cents. From now onwards it will be the demand-supply forces that will decide whether LCEM will move back to 22nd price of 5.50 or it will continue to stay below 4 or 3.50 due to its financial performance in year 2017.

I will leave it to market forces to generate the answer.
Great one EC, I think Sri Lanka people look at every thing just like political view in this country. It doesn't matter what ever great things the other party has to offer, just because that party is not my party I like to screw it.... No affraid affraid No

DS Wijesinghe


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
I can understand some experts getting dragged in to this debate but pardon me, I find it difficult to understand the necessity to predict very short term price movements which could encourage high speculators to trade and either make big money or make big losses. That is not prudent long term investing but gambling.

When Investing even in 100 shares of Lanka Cement do it with the intention of keeping those shares for a minimum of 5 years. Nothing less.

You need to do a thorough check about the stock before you commit to buy a stock and Ask yourself

1.Do I like their product Cement and how can I keep myself aware of the cement industry from time to time, like the retail price increases, new factories, etc.. IF YOU PERSONALLY DONT LIKE CEMENt AND HATE THE INDUSTRY DON’T TOUCH THE SHARE. Not even if experts recommend.

2. Check the financials for at least past 5 years on revenue, profitability, ROE, NAVPS, DPS. There should be a minimum of 10% growth year on year. If Lanka Cement fails at least in one area on these measurements FORGET LANKA CEMENT ALLTOGETHER. Let the speculators trade until the company is turned around or closed down. Keep your hard earned money out of companies like these.

No need to do anymore tests if the above 2 checks fail.

ruwan326

ruwan326
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@DS Wijesinghe wrote:I can understand some experts getting dragged in to this debate but pardon me, I find it difficult to understand the necessity to predict very short term price movements which could encourage high speculators to trade and either make big money or make big losses. That is not prudent long term investing but gambling.

When Investing even in 100 shares of Lanka Cement  do it with the intention of keeping those shares for a minimum of 5 years. Nothing less.

You need to do a thorough check about the stock before you commit to buy a stock and Ask yourself

1.Do I like their product Cement and how can I keep myself aware of the cement industry from time to time, like the retail price increases, new factories, etc.. IF YOU PERSONALLY  DONT LIKE CEMENt AND HATE THE INDUSTRY DON’T TOUCH THE SHARE. Not even if experts recommend.

2. Check the financials for at least past 5 years on revenue, profitability, ROE, NAVPS, DPS. There should be a minimum of 10% growth year on year. If Lanka Cement fails at least in one area on these measurements FORGET LANKA CEMENT ALLTOGETHER. Let the speculators trade until the company is turned around or closed down. Keep your hard earned money out of companies like these.

No need to do anymore tests if the above 2 checks fail.
We always say do your own analysis before buying even a single share. Well only time will make you a better investor, till then you are a gambler Very Happy by the way I got only200 LCEM shares and I can wait 10 years  Basketball

DS Wijesinghe


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@ruwan326 wrote:
@DS Wijesinghe wrote:I can understand some experts...........That is not prudent long term investing but gambling.

When Investing even in 100 shares of Lanka Cement.......Nothing less.

No need to do anymore tests if the above 2 checks fail.
We always say do your own analysis before buying even a single share. Well only time will make you a better investor, till then you are a gambler Very Happy by the way I got only200 LCEM shares and I can wait 10 years  Basketball

Hi Ruwan, we should always encourage new investors to analyze numbers and other qualitative factors about the companies they invest, even if they are buying 100 shares.  And to invest for a minimum of 5 years.
We should not encourage them to speculate and gamble merely on some one’s speculative advice promising substantial short term price gains in a week of 2.

Speculative investing I believe is more for seasoned, experienced, well informed investors with vital info trickling in advance. It is certainly not advisable for young, inexperienced, new entrants to the market.

Just like there are so many steps for a long term investor to look at, before buying a stock, there are a few golden rules that speculators too should practice before buying a stock.

EquityChamp

EquityChamp
Moderator
Moderator
The demand and supply forces have kept LCEM on 4.40 and it seems chances are very low to see it coming below 4.00.

Ran49


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
I think this can be move to 5.00 - 5.50 range... with the current Market condition.... we can see the the market RUN on next two weeks....

Miss-Sangeetha

Miss-Sangeetha
Moderator
Moderator
                                                                                        2017                 2016

                                          Net Asset per share       (3.78)               (3.65)

                                           Earnings per share       (0.120)           (0.033)

https://cdn.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/675_1522315698935.12.2017.pdf

Reactivation of K.K.S Cement factory is almost impossible due to environmental issues. Air pollution issue related to Sri Lanka’s prewar eras time period, very expensive smoke filter was considered that time and given up due to high cost issues, during that time cement factory was there with its sung cost.

Now ground water under Jaffna peninsula rapidly turns into salt water. Now government is applying stringent law on excavation and tube well drilling and spending on huge sum to safeguard the drinking water in Jaffna peninsula.

LCEM’S only hope is foreign deal story at broker firm’s backyard because foreign investors are ready to compensate any losses incurred by Sri Lankan companies in return for nothing. LCEM already participated in two short Marathon race on Indian Ambuja Cement takeover deal story earlier and tired now

After the LCEM Financial report release huge amount of LCEM was traded @4.70 on speculative drive, due to capital cost, soon most of them will turn as sellers, those LCEM holder are now active LCEM promoters until their good escape.

If any reason for LCEM upward trend please put forward     



Last edited by Miss-Sangeetha on Fri Apr 06, 2018 9:07 am; edited 1 time in total

EquityChamp

EquityChamp
Moderator
Moderator
If the CSE going to keep with the historical trends this year too the market index should move by 200 or 300 points. In that case all good or bad stocks can move forward.

Miss-Sangeetha

Miss-Sangeetha
Moderator
Moderator
Desperate reason Neutral

DS Wijesinghe


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Miss-Sangeetha wrote:                                                                                        2017                 2016

                                          Net Asset per share       (3.78)               (3.65)

                                           Earnings per share       (0.120)           (0.033)

https://cdn.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/675_1522315698935.12.2017.pdf

Reactivation of K.K.S Cement factory is almost impossible due to environmental issues. Air pollution issue related to Sri Lanka’s prewar eras time period, very expensive smoke filter was considered that time and given up due to high cost issues, during that time cement factory was there with its sung cost.

Now ground water under Jaffna peninsula rapidly turns into salt water. Now government is applying stringent law on excavation and tube well drilling and spending on huge sum to safeguard the drinking water in Jaffna peninsula.

LCEM’S only hope is foreign deal story at broker firm’s backyard because foreign investors are ready to compensate any losses incurred by Sri Lankan companies in return for nothing. LCEM already participated in two short Marathon race on Indian Ambuja Cement takeover deal story earlier and tired now

After the LCEM Financial report release huge amount of LCEM was traded @4.70 on speculative drive, due to capital cost, soon most of them will turn as sellers, those LCEM holder are now active LCEM promoters until their good escape.

If any reason for LCEM upward trend please put forward     

This is the type of company info. industry info. And market info. that will be vital for a genuine investor to form an understanding of LCEM before buying.

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