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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000)

EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000)

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61EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 4 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Thu Apr 14, 2011 1:29 pm

seyon


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@slstock wrote:
@tubal wrote:
@smallville wrote:Where was this PP news?
However with SEC new rules, they cant sell it on the market till a year rite?

Well CINV has sold their EXPO holding to WAPO at 6 rupees per share http://www.cse.lk/cmt/uploadAnnounceFiles/4191301658437_612.pdf

Which possibly means
1) they bought the shares at less than 6
2) they can sell at anytime.

even WAPO can't sell that stuff for an year, it doesn't change the fact that they paid less than half the price that you are about to pay.,

Tubal
agree with you point on the retailers paying double.

Small:
Regarding CINV and WAPO. We need to double check what this new SEC rule says. Is selloff/trasnfer allowed within related companies is the question

Hi
I think the WAPO will be able to sell the shares as and when they decide, As per the amended SEC rule the shares allotted before Feb 7 2011 will not be bound to this rule.... Further CINV paid for the EXPO Lanka in 3rd quarter since we could there was amount 249Mn for pending allurement. I think shares would have been allotted in early Jan.

Just the attachment of SEC rules....

EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 4 Circul10

EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 4 Circul11

62EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 4 Empty PP price (pre-IPO) & IPO Price !! Fri Apr 15, 2011 8:29 pm

factFINDER


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@econ wrote:Is it possible to give PRE IPO private placements at 6 and IPO at 14? no rules of pricing?


@econ

Same thing was practiced by UBC (Union Bank of Colombo) and they had nice (nice to issuers) justification too. (see Page 155 of UBC prospectus)

According to Page 156-158 of the same, about 150M shares were issued as PP @LKR12.5 few months ago, while the IPO was @25/-.

I'm not very sure whether any of subscribers to PP were sold full/part of their stakes at the market. (the 12 months LOCK was not applicable to them)



Decleration : I don't have UBC or WAPO shares with me.

63EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 4 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Fri Apr 15, 2011 9:49 pm

smallville


Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Thanks Seyon for the insight..

So we're arriving at the following;

1.) CINV has bought the shares before 7th Feb 2011
2.) CINV transferred the shares to WAPO and WAPO can sell it at even 15/- with abt 150% gain on first day it self.
3.) The amt of shares in question was a huge 41.6 Mn, which will not be healthy for the upside of the Expo shares.. If they sell low these orders will attract crowd and instead of selling, everyone will buy.

Even we would buy if this trades around 15-16 as its just 2 rs ahead of IPO price..

So what do you guys think?

64EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 4 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Sat Apr 16, 2011 7:39 am

Aamiable


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@smallville wrote:Thanks Seyon for the insight..

So we're arriving at the following;

1.) CINV has bought the shares before 7th Feb 2011
2.) CINV transferred the shares to WAPO and WAPO can sell it at even 15/- with abt 150% gain on first day it self.
3.) The amt of shares in question was a huge 41.6 Mn, which will not be healthy for the upside of the Expo shares.. If they sell low these orders will attract crowd and instead of selling, everyone will buy.

Even we would buy if this trades around 15-16 as its just 2 rs ahead of IPO price..

So what do you guys think?


Three PLCs CINV, WAPO and GUAR are at strong positions, ……….I do not think they will sell those stocks, often they collect more stocks……..very often strengthen their portfolios. ..CINV has no financial constrains……. GUAR also owns Guardian Fund management limited….. GUAR recently made extra ordinary profits. ….Expolanka pre IPO investments are an added advantage for CINV and GUAR….CINV further strengthen their positions… Monday onwards …
Smile Very Happy Smile Very Happy Smile

65EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 4 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Sat Apr 16, 2011 8:45 am

seyon


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@smallville wrote:Thanks Seyon for the insight..

So we're arriving at the following;

1.) CINV has bought the shares before 7th Feb 2011
2.) CINV transferred the shares to WAPO and WAPO can sell it at even 15/- with abt 150% gain on first day it self.
3.) The amt of shares in question was a huge 41.6 Mn, which will not be healthy for the upside of the Expo shares.. If they sell low these orders will attract crowd and instead of selling, everyone will buy.

Even we would buy if this trades around 15-16 as its just 2 rs ahead of IPO price..

So what do you guys think?

I don"t think the WAPO will sell shares in early stage.. as u said it is not healthy for Expo Lanka.. They might hold this for to get the max return or time to come for other opportunity to invest in companies in pre IPO stage... WAPO will decide to sell... Since WAPO is mainly set up to manage the private equity fund like companies in pre IPO stage...

Happy Trading

66EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 4 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Sat Apr 16, 2011 8:54 am

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
@seyon wrote:
I don"t think the WAPO will sell shares in early stage.. as u said it is not healthy for Expo Lanka.. They might hold this for to get the max return or time to come for other opportunity to invest in companies in pre IPO stage... WAPO will decide to sell... Since WAPO is mainly set up to manage the private equity fund like companies in pre IPO stage...

Happy Trading

I hope they wont.. but look at the upper-hand WAPO gets if they do so.. They could easily claim the profit and use half of the money to invest in next two IPOs without any trouble at all.. By that means the original investment is safe Wink Who knows WAPO is so unpredictable..

TuskerLK

TuskerLK
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
9 Months profit (net of minority interest and tax) 1,267,856,108
Segment contribution
Transportation 72%
Others- Including Manufacturing 19%
International trade 6%
Strategic Investment 3%
post IPO shares in issue 1,954,915,000
Annualized EPS 0.86
Issue Price 14
Issue PE 16.4
Sector PE 35.39
Value at sector PE 30.30



Last edited by tinyman on Fri Apr 22, 2011 8:31 am; edited 5 times in total (Reason for editing : Correction (thanks to CSEalpha))

68EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 4 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Thu Apr 21, 2011 6:12 pm

cse.alpha


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Expo 9 month net profit is Rs1.27 bn (page 76) - profit attributable to ordinary shareholders is what matters for EPS.

- Based on 1.78 bn shares in issue before IPO, this means a 9 month EPS of Rs0.7

69EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 4 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Thu Apr 21, 2011 6:23 pm

innam

innam
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
the IPO price you might say is not vastly over priced for a conglomerate but the biggest problem is that the existing shareholders had sold nearly 300 million of shares at a price of Rs 6/=, so friends and the big players have got 300 million shares at 6/= while retailers and smaller big boys are going to get 172 million at 14/=......the question is will those 300 million shares get dumped onto the market on the first day or will the SEC one year lock rule apply to them?

70EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 4 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Thu Apr 21, 2011 6:29 pm

cse.alpha


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
SEC one year lock in rule will not apply to Expo because :

a) 300 mn private deal at Rs6 was a sell down of existing shares, not a new issue - rule only applies for an allotment, i.e. a new issue, of shares

b) Issue was probably done before 7th Feb 2011, which was date from which SEC rule applies

Refer this post also for further details:

http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t2772-sec-one-year-lock-in-rule-and-impact-on-flch-expo

71EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 4 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Thu Apr 21, 2011 6:34 pm

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
It was a share sale between CINV & WAPO.. CINV selling big amt to WAPO..CINV has bought these shares last year it seems..

Now calculate the fact that WAPO can easily book some profit by disposing these shares at 14-16 even dragging the counter down on first day itself..So u may not be able to book a good profit with it or u may have to hold onto it for a long time to realize a decent gain..

We dont have any guarantee over this, are we?
This is wat I've been thinking of this Expo now..

72EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 4 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Thu Apr 21, 2011 6:38 pm

innam

innam
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
We may get a 300 million avalanche on the first day.....let's see how the "insiders" manage this.

Actually for retailers and the longer term health of the market it may be good to have a spectacular collapse of a premium priced IPO, that's the only way we'll get to see an IPO priced with a PE in the single digits.

Which billion plus IPO will be the first to close below IPO price on the first day?

73EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 4 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Thu Apr 21, 2011 7:38 pm

Gaja


Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Retailers can apply up to 7,000 Shares

74EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 4 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Thu Apr 21, 2011 9:48 pm

Academic


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
As Tubal used to say there are many good companies in the CSE with well documented track records, than IPOs.

I do not see any valid reason for going and investing in Expo. This may be worse than UBC as WAPO is desperately need a price justification. Also this IPO will come to market mid June Question .

P.S. IMHO even WAPO sell expo at 14, WAPO's current price may not be justifiable.

The outcome would be different if WAPO allows Expo to appreciate without selling its stake and recognizing unrealized gain in accounts. There is a high possibility that WAPO select this route.

75EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 4 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Thu Apr 21, 2011 11:44 pm

glwking

glwking
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
What's the reason they sold the shares at 6/- at private placement. They should have gone to IPO directly without private placement.

76EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 4 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Thu Apr 21, 2011 11:57 pm

wiser

wiser
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Anyway Indirectly WAPO will be the winner. Let's see.

77EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 4 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Fri Apr 22, 2011 4:53 am

econ

econ
Global Moderator
@innam wrote:the IPO price you might say is not vastly over priced for a conglomerate but the biggest problem is that the existing shareholders had sold nearly 300 million of shares at a price of Rs 6/=, so friends and the big players have got 300 million shares at 6/= while retailers and smaller big boys are going to get 172 million at 14/=......the question is will those 300 million shares get dumped onto the market on the first day or will the SEC one year lock rule apply to them?

yes this private placement thing should be regulated more by cse. otherwise IPOs are not attractive for retailers as only big players just gain billions.

78EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 4 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Fri Apr 22, 2011 8:01 am

tubal


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@econ wrote:
@innam wrote:the IPO price you might say is not vastly over priced for a conglomerate but the biggest problem is that the existing shareholders had sold nearly 300 million of shares at a price of Rs 6/=, so friends and the big players have got 300 million shares at 6/= while retailers and smaller big boys are going to get 172 million at 14/=......the question is will those 300 million shares get dumped onto the market on the first day or will the SEC one year lock rule apply to them?

yes this private placement thing should be regulated more by cse. otherwise IPOs are not attractive for retailers as only big players just gain billions.

Regulators can't do anything about stupidity. All that's needed is for retailers to stop being stupid.

79EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 4 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Fri Apr 22, 2011 8:34 am

TuskerLK

TuskerLK
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@wiser wrote:Anyway Indirectly WAPO will be the winner. Let's see.

is it good to buy WAPO expecting the prices to move up with the Expo share price

80EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 4 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Fri Apr 22, 2011 8:41 am

seyon


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
tinyman wrote:9 Months profit (net of minority interest and tax) 1,267,856,108
Segment contribution
Transportation 72%
Others- Including Manufacturing 19%
International trade 6%
Strategic Investment 3%
post IPO shares in issue 1,954,915,000
Annualized EPS 0.86
Issue Price 14
Issue PE 16.4
Sector PE 35.39
Value at market PE 30.30

Further when u dig the its financial out of 1.26Bn ( profit attributable to O/S) 822 million rupees arrived from other income, which included 313 million rupees capital gains on sale of investments, 21 million from debt recoveries, and 76.3 million rupees from negative goodwill.

So if u take out these from profit, only 850Mn from the operation is reported ( 1.26 -0.313-0.021-0.0763) then the diluted EPS would be 0.43( 850Mn/1.954Bn shares, post IPO). Therefore issue PE @ 32X, this is fairly trading line with sector PE...

Further Book Value is only 2.77, then PBV is about 5x... Look at others in diversified sectors, out of these CARS & RICH are trading more than 5 times, others are pretty much attractive when comparing with EXPO..

CARS- 6.23x
JKH - 3.46x
HAYL -1.87x
RICH- 5.8x
CTHR - 4.15x
HHL - 2.88x
SPEN- 3.32X

Further when u look at the share holding 130,500,000 shares representing for others, which may have allotted to friends, relatives and family members or other institution.. I guess these shares would have been issued @ very cheap price ( may be @ 6). Hence these shareholders will dump the shares even @ Rs.14 to get max return...

So guys what do u think about EXPO in this scenario... whether we ( retailers) will benefit from this subscription...

Pls explain anyone knows about transportation industry ( Fright service) to how the business model of EXPO in future..


Share ur views...

81EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 4 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Fri Apr 22, 2011 8:50 am

seyon


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@innam wrote:the IPO price you might say is not vastly over priced for a conglomerate but the biggest problem is that the existing shareholders had sold nearly 300 million of shares at a price of Rs 6/=, so friends and the big players have got 300 million shares at 6/= while retailers and smaller big boys are going to get 172 million at 14/=......the question is will those 300 million shares get dumped onto the market on the first day or will the SEC one year lock rule apply to them?

Hi innam

When u see the prospectus page No 44, there is a statement that "There were no shares issued for two (02) years preceding the date of the prospectus". . Therefore CINV/WAPO, JKH and others will be able to sell even in first day.. SEC rule only will apply to the shares allotted after FEB 7 2011...

So there is high possibility these guys will dumb, when shares hit to mkt, Since these investors have been waiting for more than 2 years...
or else there should be some pre-agreement with these shareholders.

will see what will happen....



Last edited by seyon on Fri Apr 22, 2011 1:51 pm; edited 1 time in total

82EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 4 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Fri Apr 22, 2011 8:58 am

TuskerLK

TuskerLK
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
I just went through the prospectus and in page 43 they have given the shareholding structure subsequent to the IPO..

but the WAPO and CINV are not mentioned there. I think they have considerable amount of shares which should be mentioned in the list instead of grouping under "others"

What I heard was there were 7 packets of Rs.300mn bundles were issued in private placement, of which WAPO has got one. One other such party is Phoenix Ventures (those who got ODEL private placement shares and sold off subsequent to the listing) now they are not in the list, which means the shares trading in the gray market may have come from them.

My personal opinion on the business of Expo is big with huge potentials in the Logistic and Strategic Investment (BPO & APIIT ). but the PE seems to be high. by the way the share commence trading on mid of june,during which the next big down turn of the market is expected.

83EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 4 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Fri Apr 22, 2011 9:13 am

cse.alpha


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Refer table 11 on page 44 of Expo prospectus

JKH, CINV, Lanka Strategic Investments, Softlogic are among top 11 shareholders of Expo. CINV transferred shares to WAPO at a later date, after 25th March 2011.

Lanka Strategic is local arm of Logan Rockefeller Global Investments. Channa De Silva, formerly of SEC, heads local operation.

In total 317 million shares have been transferred in private deal at Rs6 per share.

84EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 4 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Fri Apr 22, 2011 9:16 am

kumaramcr


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
this is a great discussion

85EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 4 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Fri Apr 22, 2011 9:30 am

TuskerLK

TuskerLK
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@seyon wrote:
tinyman wrote:9 Months profit (net of minority interest and tax) 1,267,856,108
Segment contribution
Transportation 72%
Others- Including Manufacturing 19%
International trade 6%
Strategic Investment 3%
post IPO shares in issue 1,954,915,000
Annualized EPS 0.86
Issue Price 14
Issue PE 16.4
Sector PE 35.39
Value at market PE 30.30

Further when u dig the its financial out of 1.26Bn ( profit attributable to O/S) 822 million rupees arrived from other income, which included 313 million rupees capital gains on sale of investments, 21 million from debt recoveries, and 76.3 million rupees from negative goodwill.

So if u take out these from profit, only 850Mn from the operation is reported ( 1.26 -0.313-0.021-0.0763) then the diluted EPS would be 0.43( 850Mn/1.954Bn shares, post IPO). Therefore issue PE @ 32X, this is fairly trading line with sector PE...

Further Book Value is only 2.77, then PBV is about 5x... Look at others in diversified sectors, out of these CARS & RICH are trading more than 5 times, others are pretty much attractive when comparing with EXPO..

CARS- 6.23x
JKH - 3.46x
HAYL -1.87x
RICH- 5.8x
CTHR - 4.15x
HHL - 2.88x
SPEN- 3.32X

Further when u look at the share holding 130,500,000 shares representing for others, which may have allotted to friends, relatives and family members or other institution.. I guess these shares would have been issued @ very cheap price ( may be @ 6). Hence these shareholders will dump the shares even @ Rs.14 to get max return...

So guys what do u think about EXPO in this scenario... whether we ( retailers) will benefit from this subscription...

Pls explain anyone knows about transportation industry ( Fright service) to how the business model of EXPO in future..


Share ur views...

I did some more work with the numbers...

EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 4 Expo_a11

https://i.servimg.com/u/f21/16/41/50/09/expo_a11.png

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