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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000)

EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000)

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81EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 5 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Fri Apr 22, 2011 8:50 am

seyon


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@innam wrote:the IPO price you might say is not vastly over priced for a conglomerate but the biggest problem is that the existing shareholders had sold nearly 300 million of shares at a price of Rs 6/=, so friends and the big players have got 300 million shares at 6/= while retailers and smaller big boys are going to get 172 million at 14/=......the question is will those 300 million shares get dumped onto the market on the first day or will the SEC one year lock rule apply to them?

Hi innam

When u see the prospectus page No 44, there is a statement that "There were no shares issued for two (02) years preceding the date of the prospectus". . Therefore CINV/WAPO, JKH and others will be able to sell even in first day.. SEC rule only will apply to the shares allotted after FEB 7 2011...

So there is high possibility these guys will dumb, when shares hit to mkt, Since these investors have been waiting for more than 2 years...
or else there should be some pre-agreement with these shareholders.

will see what will happen....



Last edited by seyon on Fri Apr 22, 2011 1:51 pm; edited 1 time in total

82EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 5 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Fri Apr 22, 2011 8:58 am

TuskerLK


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
I just went through the prospectus and in page 43 they have given the shareholding structure subsequent to the IPO..

but the WAPO and CINV are not mentioned there. I think they have considerable amount of shares which should be mentioned in the list instead of grouping under "others"

What I heard was there were 7 packets of Rs.300mn bundles were issued in private placement, of which WAPO has got one. One other such party is Phoenix Ventures (those who got ODEL private placement shares and sold off subsequent to the listing) now they are not in the list, which means the shares trading in the gray market may have come from them.

My personal opinion on the business of Expo is big with huge potentials in the Logistic and Strategic Investment (BPO & APIIT ). but the PE seems to be high. by the way the share commence trading on mid of june,during which the next big down turn of the market is expected.

83EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 5 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Fri Apr 22, 2011 9:13 am

cse.alpha


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Refer table 11 on page 44 of Expo prospectus

JKH, CINV, Lanka Strategic Investments, Softlogic are among top 11 shareholders of Expo. CINV transferred shares to WAPO at a later date, after 25th March 2011.

Lanka Strategic is local arm of Logan Rockefeller Global Investments. Channa De Silva, formerly of SEC, heads local operation.

In total 317 million shares have been transferred in private deal at Rs6 per share.

84EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 5 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Fri Apr 22, 2011 9:16 am

kumaramcr


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
this is a great discussion

85EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 5 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Fri Apr 22, 2011 9:30 am

TuskerLK


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@seyon wrote:
tinyman wrote:9 Months profit (net of minority interest and tax) 1,267,856,108
Segment contribution
Transportation 72%
Others- Including Manufacturing 19%
International trade 6%
Strategic Investment 3%
post IPO shares in issue 1,954,915,000
Annualized EPS 0.86
Issue Price 14
Issue PE 16.4
Sector PE 35.39
Value at market PE 30.30

Further when u dig the its financial out of 1.26Bn ( profit attributable to O/S) 822 million rupees arrived from other income, which included 313 million rupees capital gains on sale of investments, 21 million from debt recoveries, and 76.3 million rupees from negative goodwill.

So if u take out these from profit, only 850Mn from the operation is reported ( 1.26 -0.313-0.021-0.0763) then the diluted EPS would be 0.43( 850Mn/1.954Bn shares, post IPO). Therefore issue PE @ 32X, this is fairly trading line with sector PE...

Further Book Value is only 2.77, then PBV is about 5x... Look at others in diversified sectors, out of these CARS & RICH are trading more than 5 times, others are pretty much attractive when comparing with EXPO..

CARS- 6.23x
JKH - 3.46x
HAYL -1.87x
RICH- 5.8x
CTHR - 4.15x
HHL - 2.88x
SPEN- 3.32X

Further when u look at the share holding 130,500,000 shares representing for others, which may have allotted to friends, relatives and family members or other institution.. I guess these shares would have been issued @ very cheap price ( may be @ 6). Hence these shareholders will dump the shares even @ Rs.14 to get max return...

So guys what do u think about EXPO in this scenario... whether we ( retailers) will benefit from this subscription...

Pls explain anyone knows about transportation industry ( Fright service) to how the business model of EXPO in future..


Share ur views...

I did some more work with the numbers...

EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 5 Expo_a11

https://i.servimg.com/u/f21/16/41/50/09/expo_a11.png

86EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 5 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Fri Apr 22, 2011 9:41 am

TuskerLK

TuskerLK
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
http://lbo.lk/fullstory.php?nid=1848253553

87EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 5 Empty Private Placement Fri Apr 22, 2011 9:55 am

pdgsuranga

pdgsuranga
Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
can you please advice me about private placement whether effect to expo lanka or not? because private placement is a big headache for IPO.

88EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 5 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Fri Apr 22, 2011 10:19 am

seyon


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
tinyman wrote:

I did some more work with the numbers...

EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 5 Expo_a11

https://i.servimg.com/u/f21/16/41/50/09/expo_a11.png

When u take out the non recurring income PE is about 32x, which is pretty much high at initial trading stage. even if take the assumption that the institutional shareholder will hold for long term. I doubt about 130Mn shares representing for others category. I guess they will dump the shares event at IPO price. This we experienced from Union bank IPO as well....



Last edited by seyon on Fri Apr 22, 2011 10:24 am; edited 1 time in total

89EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 5 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Fri Apr 22, 2011 10:22 am

seyon


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@smallville wrote:It was a share sale between CINV & WAPO.. CINV selling big amt to WAPO..CINV has bought these shares last year it seems..

Now calculate the fact that WAPO can easily book some profit by disposing these shares at 14-16 even dragging the counter down on first day itself..So u may not be able to book a good profit with it or u may have to hold onto it for a long time to realize a decent gain..

We dont have any guarantee over this, are we?
This is wat I've been thinking of this Expo now..

Hi small

How do think about EXPO industry/business model ( Mainly about Frights service.)

90EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 5 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Fri Apr 22, 2011 10:24 am

TuskerLK

TuskerLK
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@seyon wrote:
tinyman wrote:

I did some more work with ..........

https://i.servimg.com/u/f21/16/41/50/09/expo_a11.png

When u take out the non recurring income PE is about 32x, which is pretty much high at initial trading stag. even if take the assumption that the institutional shareholder will hold for long term. I doubt about 130Mn shares representing for others category. I guess they will dump the shares event at IPO price. This we experienced from Union bank IPO as well....

32x PE comes when you takes only 9 month earning, we have to annualize the 9month profit in order to calculate the correct PE. and the profit from non recurring items should also be assertained to MIs, so after these two adjustment only PE comes to 22x.

correct me if i'm wrong

91EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 5 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Fri Apr 22, 2011 10:25 am

csekanex@gmail.com


Stock Analytic
Stock Analytic
tinyman wrote:
@seyon wrote:
tinyman wrote:9 Months profit (net of minority interest and tax) 1,267,856,108
Segment contribution
Transportation 72%
Others- Including Manufacturing 19%
International trade 6%
Strategic Investment 3%
post IPO shares in issue 1,954,915,000
Annualized EPS 0.86
Issue Price 14
Issue PE 16.4
Sector PE 35.39
Value at market PE 30.30

Further when u dig the its financial out of 1.26Bn ( profit attributable to O/S) 822 million rupees arrived from other income, which included 313 million rupees capital gains on sale of investments, 21 million from debt recoveries, and 76.3 million rupees from negative goodwill.

So if u take out these from profit, only 850Mn from the operation is reported ( 1.26 -0.313-0.021-0.0763) then the diluted EPS would be 0.43( 850Mn/1.954Bn shares, post IPO). Therefore issue PE @ 32X, this is fairly trading line with sector PE...

Further Book Value is only 2.77, then PBV is about 5x... Look at others in diversified sectors, out of these CARS & RICH are trading more than 5 times, others are pretty much attractive when comparing with EXPO..

CARS- 6.23x
JKH - 3.46x
HAYL -1.87x
RICH- 5.8x
CTHR - 4.15x
HHL - 2.88x
SPEN- 3.32X

Further when u look at the share holding 130,500,000 shares representing for others, which may have allotted to friends, relatives and family members or other institution.. I guess these shares would have been issued @ very cheap price ( may be @ 6). Hence these shareholders will dump the shares even @ Rs.14 to get max return...

So guys what do u think about EXPO in this scenario... whether we ( retailers) will benefit from this subscription...

Pls explain anyone knows about transportation industry ( Fright service) to how the business model of EXPO in future..


Share ur views...

I did some more work with the numbers...

EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 5 Expo_a11

https://i.servimg.com/u/f21/16/41/50/09/expo_a11.png


Tinyman

I am not an expert in financial side but in your calculation -

If you deduct the non recurring items to get the diluted PBT and deducted same amount of income tax from diluted PBT is it correct or we have to recalculate income tax on diluted PBT ? Won't make much of a difference though ......please comment

92EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 5 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Fri Apr 22, 2011 10:39 am

seyon


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
tinyman wrote:
@seyon wrote:
tinyman wrote:

I did some more work with ..........

https://i.servimg.com/u/f21/16/41/50/09/expo_a11.png

When u take out the non recurring income PE is about 32x, which is pretty much high at initial trading stag. even if take the assumption that the institutional shareholder will hold for long term. I doubt about 130Mn shares representing for others category. I guess they will dump the shares event at IPO price. This we experienced from Union bank IPO as well....

32x PE comes when you takes only 9 month earning, we have to annualize the 9month profit in order to calculate the correct PE. and the profit from non recurring items should also be assertained to MIs, so after these two adjustment only PE comes to 22x.

correct me if i'm wrong

Sorry... Yes true, to calculate PE, earning should be annualized. But i am sure, we do not consider MI portion to calculate the PE, since profit attributable to MI will not be belong to ordinary shareholders. But to calculate the enterprise value, we can consider the total earnings.

Even if annualized the earnings PE comes about 25x ...... ?

Look at the Current PE of the companies in diversified sector....

CARS 34.55x
JKH 24.34X
HAYL 39.45X
RICH 15X
CTHR 60.00x
HHL 19.92X
SPEN 32X

Hence, Issue price @ 25x in initial stage is question.... Further my more concern is about the persons who bought the shares @ 6 and their trading behavior during the open session, If they will dump the shares, we will be in horrible situation.



Last edited by seyon on Fri Apr 22, 2011 1:46 pm; edited 4 times in total

93EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 5 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Fri Apr 22, 2011 10:40 am

TuskerLK

TuskerLK
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@csekanex@gmail.com wrote:

Tinyman

I am not an expert in financial side but in your calculation -

If you deduct the non recurring items to get the diluted PBT and deducted same amount of income tax from diluted PBT is it correct or we have to recalculate income tax on diluted PBT ? Won't make much of a difference though ......please comment
`

dude,capital gain won't attract taxes in most cases i guess, so other two have very little impact to the tax.so i assumed that tax as given..anyway we are on the conservative side

94EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 5 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Fri Apr 22, 2011 11:29 am

wiser

wiser
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Considering all facts It seems WAPO has a potential with follwing facts,
1. It is an investment insitute and they know how to get maximum profit from Expo private placement. so it is very very rare to sell their stake within a short period. ( think about what happend to PCH, ODEL, LGL IPOs . Those IPOs picked up after few months and gave a return more than 100%)
2. WAPO is highly speculative share and will be given a good return with high risk ( Pls don't burn your fingers and try to enter at the correct time). Since WAPO management is more care about their share holders)

95EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 5 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Fri Apr 22, 2011 1:00 pm

kavi84


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
Is it worth to by @14 from ipo? Question

96EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 5 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Fri Apr 22, 2011 1:03 pm

Gaja


Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
@kavi84 wrote:Is it worth to by @14 from ipo? Question

Well u have to do your own analysis and find out, it will vary from person to person specially in the IPO's its vary with the Required Rate of Return

97EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 5 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Fri Apr 22, 2011 1:05 pm

tkc

tkc
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
It is worth to buy @ 14. But private placement is little bit concern for me... I m in a 50% 50% situation.......

98EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 5 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Fri Apr 22, 2011 1:07 pm

yoyo

yoyo
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
http://www.ft.lk/2011/04/22/expolanka%E2%80%99s-bio-extracts-invests-in-new-state-of-the-art-production-facility/

99EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 5 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Fri Apr 22, 2011 2:59 pm

UKboy

UKboy
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@tubal wrote:
@econ wrote:
@innam wrote:the IPO price you might say is not vastly over priced for a conglomerate but the biggest problem is that the existing shareholders had sold nearly 300 million of shares at a price of Rs 6/=, so friends and the big players have got 300 million shares at 6/= while retailers and smaller big boys are going to get 172 million at 14/=......the question is will those 300 million shares get dumped onto the market on the first day or will the SEC one year lock rule apply to them?

yes this private placement thing should be regulated more by cse. otherwise IPOs are not attractive for retailers as only big players just gain billions.

Regulators can't do anything about stupidity. All that's needed is for retailers to stop being stupid.

Very true Tubal. If I'm desperate buy shares of this company I would be buying from the open market.
This time it is too risky to buy shares from the IPO due to this private placement.

Also 172 millions + 300 millions at the market. Neutral Neutral

100EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 5 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Fri Apr 22, 2011 3:09 pm

SL.Market

SL.Market
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@UKboy wrote:
@tubal wrote:
@econ wrote:
@innam wrote:the IPO price you might say is not vastly over priced for a conglomerate but the biggest problem is that the existing shareholders had sold nearly 300 million of shares at a price of Rs 6/=, so friends and the big players have got 300 million shares at 6/= while retailers and smaller big boys are going to get 172 million at 14/=......the question is will those 300 million shares get dumped onto the market on the first day or will the SEC one year lock rule apply to them?

yes this private placement thing should be regulated more by cse. otherwise IPOs are not attractive for retailers as only big players just gain billions.

Regulators can't do anything about stupidity. All that's needed is for retailers to stop being stupid.


Very true Tubal. If I'm desperate buy shares of this company I would be buying from the open market.
This time it is too risky to buy shares from the IPO due to this private placement.

Also 172 millions + 300 millions at the market. Neutral Neutral

PRIVATE PALCEMENT AMOUNT SELL ONLY AFTER ONE YEAR?

101EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 5 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Fri Apr 22, 2011 3:50 pm

Aamiable


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Many investors look for open market.... already listed well known stocks are better than all these IPO. at the end small number of shares given for a large sum... waste of time and funds....

Smile Smile

102EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 5 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Fri Apr 22, 2011 3:56 pm

Gaja


Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
@econ wrote:
@innam wrote:the IPO price you might say is not vastly over priced for a conglomerate but the biggest problem is that the existing shareholders had sold nearly 300 million of shares at a price of Rs 6/=, so friends and the big players have got 300 million shares at 6/= while retailers and smaller big boys are going to get 172 million at 14/=......the question is will those 300 million shares get dumped onto the market on the first day or will the SEC one year lock rule apply to them?

yes this private placement thing should be regulated more by cse. otherwise IPOs are not attractive for retailers as only big players just gain billions.

econ i didn't want to promote or demote any shares but this is a answer i posted to another question just have a look - http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t2893-private-placement#19424

103EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 5 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Fri Apr 22, 2011 5:18 pm

econ

econ
Global Moderator
@Gaja wrote:
@econ wrote:
@innam wrote:the IPO price you might say is not vastly over priced for a conglomerate but the biggest problem is that the existing shareholders had sold nearly 300 million of shares at a price of Rs 6/=, so friends and the big players have got 300 million shares at 6/= while retailers and smaller big boys are going to get 172 million at 14/=......the question is will those 300 million shares get dumped onto the market on the first day or will the SEC one year lock rule apply to them?

yes this private placement thing should be regulated more by cse. otherwise IPOs are not attractive for retailers as only big players just gain billions.

econ i didn't want to promote or demote any shares but this is a answer i posted to another question just have a look - http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t2893-private-placement#19424

Thanks gaja.. yeah it seems EXPO never issued private placements just before the IPO unlike union bank IPO. . so 6 rupee private placement 2 years ago was not a problem for this IPO since then company might have grown lot. for example 2 years ago bfl trading at below 10 now at 480.

104EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 5 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Fri Apr 22, 2011 5:38 pm

seyon


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Gaja wrote:
@econ wrote:
@innam wrote:the IPO price you might say is not vastly over priced for a conglomerate but the biggest problem is that the existing shareholders had sold nearly 300 million of shares at a price of Rs 6/=, so friends and the big players have got 300 million shares at 6/= while retailers and smaller big boys are going to get 172 million at 14/=......the question is will those 300 million shares get dumped onto the market on the first day or will the SEC one year lock rule apply to them?

yes this private placement thing should be regulated more by cse. otherwise IPOs are not attractive for retailers as only big players just gain billions.

econ i didn't want to promote or demote any shares but this is a answer i posted to another question just have a look - http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t2893-private-placement#19424

Yes Gaja.. Private placement is really helped to these company to restructure the balance sheet and to show good picture when it come to IPO. When u analyze the union Bank IPO and private placement, 15Mn shares were issued on IPO, I am not sure about the private placement nos. However in the very 1st day itself 17.5 Mn shares were traded between 38-45. so some of the investors who bought from private placement issue, would have sold even in 1st day itself.

I guess, same pattern will happen to EXPO also... Further the investors who bought from private placement have been waiting for long time ( 2 years). But Union bank private placement was taken place before 6 months of IPO. I guess..

However we do not tell anything in CSE.....

Happy Trading

105EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 5 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Fri Apr 22, 2011 6:24 pm

TuskerLK

TuskerLK
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@seyon wrote:

Yes Gaja.. Private placement is really helped to these company to restructure the balance sheet and to show good picture when it come to IPO. When u analyze the union Bank IPO and private placement, 15Mn shares were issued on IPO, I am not sure about the private placement nos. However in the very 1st day itself 17.5 Mn shares were traded between 38-45. so some of the investors who bought from private placement issue, would have sold even in 1st day itself.

I guess, same pattern will happen to EXPO also... Further the investors who bought from private placement have been waiting for long time ( 2 years). But Union bank private placement was taken place before 6 months of IPO. I guess..

However we do not tell anything in CSE.....

Happy Trading


Seyon, Expo placement took place recently, about 4 months back..JKSB was the managers to that also. they have placed a full page add sometime ago regarding the placements they have handled successfully.

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