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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000)

EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000)

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951EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 39 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:20 pm

Mithooshan


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@EPS wrote:Yah. Minimum estimation...
Q1 - 0.89
Q2 -  0.90
Q3 - 0.70
Q4 - 0.50
Total - 3.0
EPS 3 x 7 or 8 PER ? will see

Honestly PER should be minimum 10 in my opinion.

952EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 39 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:36 pm

EPS


Expert
Expert
@Mithooshan wrote:
@EPS wrote:Yah. Minimum estimation...
Q1 - 0.89
Q2 -  0.90
Q3 - 0.70
Q4 - 0.50
Total - 3.0
EPS 3 x 7 or 8 PER ? will see

Honestly PER should be minimum 10 in my opinion.
Yah. Its Light Asset model business.
How about, if they generates 1.5 EPS for Q2 ?
1.5 X 4 ?

953EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 39 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:43 pm

Mithooshan


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@EPS wrote:
@Mithooshan wrote:
@EPS wrote:Yah. Minimum estimation...
Q1 - 0.89
Q2 -  0.90
Q3 - 0.70
Q4 - 0.50
Total - 3.0
EPS 3 x 7 or 8 PER ? will see

Honestly PER should be minimum 10 in my opinion.
Yah. Its Light Asset model business.
How about, if they generates 1.5 EPS for Q2 ?
1.5 X 4 ?

I will be really happy if the EPS for Q2 is Rs.1.50 but I don’t think it will be that much. Should be more than 0.80 and possible to touch even RS.1.00.

As you correctly said, someone is offloading at Rs.18.70. Hence the price stagnated there. By next week, share price should start appreciating with the interim F/S.

954EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 39 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:52 pm

EPS


Expert
Expert
@Mithooshan wrote:
@EPS wrote:
@Mithooshan wrote:
@EPS wrote:Yah. Minimum estimation...
Q1 - 0.89
Q2 -  0.90
Q3 - 0.70
Q4 - 0.50
Total - 3.0
EPS 3 x 7 or 8 PER ? will see

Honestly PER should be minimum 10 in my opinion.
Yah. Its Light Asset model business.
How about, if they generates 1.5 EPS for Q2 ?
1.5 X 4 ?

I will be really happy if the EPS for Q2 is Rs.1.50 but I don’t think it will be that much. Should be more than 0.80 and possible to touch even RS.1.00.

As you correctly said, someone is offloading at Rs.18.70. Hence the price stagnated there. By next week, share price should start appreciating with the interim F/S.
 Yah. I also expecting only 0.90 for Q2, because thinking they continue the same business model, same as q1. But, we should keep understand that EXPO is massive growing company by now and there are lot of country by country expansions are going on.
So, really thinking, if any case, if they deliver above the Rs.1 EPS, then all can dance  Basketball Basketball Basketball

Mithooshan likes this post

955EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 39 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:57 pm

Mithooshan


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Well, Agreed ! 😊

956EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 39 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Mon Nov 02, 2020 2:07 pm

lakymahesh


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
@EPS wrote:Yah. Minimum estimation...
Q1 - 0.89
Q2 -  0.90
Q3 - 0.70
Q4 - 0.50
Total - 3.0
EPS 3 x 7 or 8 PER ? will see

Dividend payout ratio is around 30% as per the annual report , so according to this calculation can expect abt Rs 0.85/-,  so you decide how much you gonna pay for this share.

957EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 39 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Mon Nov 02, 2020 2:35 pm

Mithooshan


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@EPS wrote:May be the last day trading @ below the Rs.19 (Only my personnel view).
I guess, quarterly EPS will be Rs.0.90 between 0.99 (very close to Rs.1) - should be at least 0.01 cents more than the Q1. otherwise cannot survive at Rs.19/- range like today.

What a prediction! 👏🏾👏🏾

vikey, heroxhere and judecroos like this post

958EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 39 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Mon Nov 02, 2020 10:54 pm

EPS

EPS
Expert
Expert
Seems now supporting level of 17.50 can maintain for EXPO. 
Also We saw the uptrend confirmation during last Friday and Todays trading. 
So, most probably we can expect EXPO trading above the Rs.20 in coming days with adding hopes for expecting Q2 financials.

959EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 39 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Tue Nov 03, 2020 6:18 am

Ahilan007


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
Will EXPO give dividend for this year?? last year 2019 they didn't give dividend

960EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 39 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:18 am

arun.cse


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
definitely will give, whatever it will touch 22 within this week

961EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 39 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Tue Nov 03, 2020 1:10 pm

Mithooshan


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@arun.cse wrote:definitely will give, whatever it will touch 22 within this week

It already reached Rs.21.40 ! I was expecting it to reach Rs.22 by end of the week only. I think i am wrong here.

962EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 39 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Tue Nov 03, 2020 1:13 pm

arun.cse


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@Mithooshan wrote:
@arun.cse wrote:definitely will give, whatever it will touch 22 within this week

It already reached Rs.21.40 ! I was expecting it to reach Rs.22 by end of the week only. I think i am wrong here.

me too,  Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy

Mithooshan likes this post

963EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 39 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Tue Nov 03, 2020 1:46 pm

arun.cse


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@arun.cse wrote:definitely will give, whatever it will touch 22 within this week

Achieved cheers cheers cheers cheers cheers

RJ1010 likes this post

964EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 39 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Tue Nov 03, 2020 1:50 pm

Mithooshan


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@arun.cse wrote:
@arun.cse wrote:definitely will give, whatever it will touch 22 within this week

Achieved cheers cheers cheers cheers cheers

Yes, Indeed 🙂
My best wishes to shareholders !

vikey and DKbogols like this post

965EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 39 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Tue Nov 03, 2020 2:18 pm

KingMaker2020


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
What a run! Absolutely breathtaking!  Very Happy

966EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 39 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Tue Nov 03, 2020 2:27 pm

Mr. X

Mr. X
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
more to see in next week... 35/- expected price after Q2 results.

967EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 39 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Tue Nov 03, 2020 2:30 pm

Mr. X

Mr. X
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@ONTHEMONEY wrote:Hi all,

I have shared in my earlier post about the estimated market value of EXPO as follows

Scenario 1 - CONSERVATIVELY POSSIBLE

1Q2020 = Rs 0.89
2Q20 - 4Q20 = 1.33 [Assuming EXPO discounted significantly by 50% of 1Q2020 EPS on a conservative model on all remaining quarters]

Total Est. EPS = Rs 2.22

1Q20 Earnings adjusted for any one-off items during the period by substantially discounting on blanket basis. 


Est. Market value after the adjustments = Rs 22.20 [PE = 10x multiples]

Notes

1. Overall Market PE 9.82 as of 09.10.20
2. Sector PE 23.9 as of 09.10.20

However, by what I feel is the fact that above is far to conservative and shall be risk free investment

Now, I shall wanted to outline new perceptive about possible two NEW scenarios which can BEST POSSIBLE and HIGHLY OPTIMISTIC. However these prices shall be dependent on how best EXPO can deliver 2Q20 earnings

Scenario 2 - BEST POSSIBLE

1Q2020 = Rs 0.89
2Q20 - 4Q20 = 2.0 [Assuming EXPO discounted by 25% of 1Q2020 EPS on a relatively conservative model on all remaining quarters]

Total Est. EPS = Rs 2.89

Est. Market value after the adjustments = Rs 28.90 [PE = 10x multiples]

Scenario 3 - HIGHLY OPTIMISTIC

1Q2020 = Rs 0.89
2Q20 - 4Q20 = 2.67 [Assuming EXPO to deliver same as 1Q2020 EPS on all remaining quarters]

Total Est. EPS = Rs 3.56

Est. Market value after the adjustments = Rs 35.60 [PE = 10x multiples]

Therefore, I strongly feel EXPO has the capability to DELIVER super normal earnings as 1Q20 and discounting 25% of 1Q20 would be IDEAL compute the MARKET VALUE as per Scenario 2 above. Hence, Rs 28.90 would be much more REALISTIC

However, if EXPO records above super normal EPS delivered in 1Q20[more than Rs 0.89], the market value could be as per scenario 3 above.

Good Luck

DISCLAIMER - This is not a BUY or SELL Recommendation. Investment in CSE has its own risks and returns.

Keep this in mind boys... Next week you will need this.

heroxhere and Mithooshan like this post

968EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 39 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Tue Nov 03, 2020 2:43 pm

EPS

EPS
Expert
Expert
Main factor to see...
Is EXPO Billions earning company for its each quarter
like other larger Blue Chip companies in CSE.
I think future price will depend on that.

969EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 39 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Tue Nov 03, 2020 2:48 pm

Mithooshan


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Tokyo was trading like this before results came out (exactly one day before) and even after results came there was a share price appreciation. I wonder whether someone is already aware of the results. And based on how it got traded today i am pretty sure it is good. I don’t think whoever collected did so in a speculated performance.

Otherwise no reason to buy as high as RS.22.90/RS.23 today.

@Captain - Special thanks to you as well. If not for your recommendation, i would not have analysed this share. Initially i was under the impression that this share price is over valued. But after doing my research i knew it is the other way around.

Thanks again ! 🙏🏾

970EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 39 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Tue Nov 03, 2020 7:49 pm

abey


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
TOMMOROW price

971EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 39 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Tue Nov 03, 2020 7:52 pm

abey


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@abey wrote:20++++
my early post

972EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 39 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Tue Nov 03, 2020 7:59 pm

Captain


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Now choice is ur hand

Mithooshan likes this post

973EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 39 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Tue Nov 03, 2020 9:43 pm

kumarweerarathne

kumarweerarathne
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
According to da news Rs.1 dividend tomorrow .🚀🚀

judecroos likes this post

974EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 39 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Tue Nov 03, 2020 9:58 pm

Ahilan007


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
@kumarweerarathne wrote:According to da news Rs.1 dividend tomorrow .🚀🚀
news source ???

975EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 39 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Tue Nov 03, 2020 10:03 pm

RajapaksaDON


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
@Mithooshan wrote:
@arun.cse wrote:definitely will give, whatever it will touch 22 within this week

It already reached Rs.21.40 ! I was expecting it to reach Rs.22 by end of the week only. I think i am wrong here.

Already reached 23.00.

976EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 39 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Tue Nov 03, 2020 10:27 pm

Mithooshan


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@kumarweerarathne wrote:According to da news Rs.1 dividend tomorrow .🚀🚀

I understand if you are unable to share the source. Let’s wait and see tomorrow, 12+ hours to verify the statement.

977EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 39 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Tue Nov 03, 2020 10:37 pm

EPS

EPS
Expert
Expert
I dont think they pay Rs.1/- as INTERIM dividend.
having massive 1.9 Bn shares. but, 1.4 Bn having with mother company.
Considering previous dividend pattern, it may be 0.25 between 0.40 cents for interim.
Thinking they will pay dividend during Q4 and not November.
As a FINAL dividend - yes it should more than 1 ???? in next march ????

978EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 39 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Tue Nov 03, 2020 10:42 pm

Mithooshan


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@EPS wrote:I dont think they pay Rs.1/- as INTERIM dividend.
having massive 1.9 Bn shares. but, 1.4 Bn having with mother company.
Considering previous dividend pattern, it may be 0.25 between 0.40 cents for interim.
Thinking they will pay dividend during Q4 and not November.
As a FINAL dividend - yes it should more than 1 ???? in next march ????

This time with good EPS i was expecting an interim of Rs.0.50. That is a generous dividend yet will not harm them as well.
@EPS - Do you think it is doable ?

Final Dividend of Rs.1 is very much on the cards if the Management decided to give one.

979EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 39 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Tue Nov 03, 2020 10:54 pm

geesura

geesura
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
“The trend is your friend until the end when it bends.” – Ed Seykota

Mithooshan likes this post

980EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 39 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Wed Nov 04, 2020 12:39 am

DKbogols


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
I think its fair to assume that Q2 has been good and perhaps a decent dividend also on the way. Whats important now is to assess the optimum price to sell. Well, this depends on the valuations you attach to the counter. Assuming annualised EPS of 4-5 per share the fair value for EXPO should fall within the range of 40-50 assuming a 10x PER. 10x PER is very conservative since its a growing business with immense future potential. So it is now up to the investor to decide whether to sell at current price levels or wait until it realises the true potential! This will decide if you are an investor or a trader - nothing wrong with either!

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