FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™
Dear Reader,

Registration with the Sri Lanka FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™️ would enable you to enjoy an array of other services such as Member Rankings, User Groups, Own Posts & Profile, Exclusive Research, Live Chat Box etc..

All information contained in this forum is subject to Disclaimer Notice published.


Thank You
FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™️
www.srilankachronicle.com


Join the forum, it's quick and easy

FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™
Dear Reader,

Registration with the Sri Lanka FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™️ would enable you to enjoy an array of other services such as Member Rankings, User Groups, Own Posts & Profile, Exclusive Research, Live Chat Box etc..

All information contained in this forum is subject to Disclaimer Notice published.


Thank You
FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™️
www.srilankachronicle.com
FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.
FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™

Encyclopedia of Latest news, reviews, discussions and analysis of stock market and investment opportunities in Sri Lanka

Click Link to get instant AI answers to all business queries.
Click Link to find latest Economic Outlook of Sri Lanka
Click Link to view latest Research and Analysis of the key Sectors and Industries of Sri Lanka
Worried about Paying Taxes? Click Link to find answers to all your Tax related matters
Do you have a legal issues? Find instant answers to all Sri Lanka Legal queries. Click Link
Latest images

Latest topics

» Latest Financial Status and Future Outlook of SMB Finance PLC
by ChatGPT Yesterday at 11:15 pm

» Latest Financial Status and Future Outlook of Overseas Realty PLC
by ChatGPT Yesterday at 11:00 pm

» Latest Financial Status and Future Outlook of Merchant Bank of Sri Lanka & Finance PLC
by ChatGPT Yesterday at 10:55 pm

» McDonald’s අපේ නෙමෙයි අපේ බෝස්ගේ – අබාන්ස් කියයි
by ChooBoy Yesterday at 10:19 am

» AI Assistance for Stock Market Research and Analysis
by ChatGPT Yesterday at 7:12 am

» Comparative Analysis of the Insurance Sector
by God Father Tue Mar 26, 2024 11:46 pm

» Sri Lanka: Why Pay Exorbitant Taxes?
by ChatGPT Tue Mar 26, 2024 10:52 pm

» LANKA CREDIT AND BUSINESS FINANCE PLC (LCBF.N0000)
by K.R Tue Mar 26, 2024 3:15 pm

» CENTRAL INDUSTRIES PLC (CIND.N0000)
by D.G.Dayaratne Tue Mar 26, 2024 9:11 am

» SIYAPATHA FINANACE PLC (SLFL.N0000)
by ChatGPT Tue Mar 26, 2024 7:58 am

» FINANCE AND LEASING SECTOR
by ChatGPT Mon Mar 25, 2024 6:45 am

» LOLC FINANCE PLC (LOFC.N0000)
by ChatGPT Mon Mar 25, 2024 6:36 am

» CIC HOLDINGS PLC (CIC.N0000)
by ChatGPT Mon Mar 25, 2024 6:18 am

» UNION ASSURANCE PLC (UAL.N0000)
by ChatGPT Mon Mar 25, 2024 6:15 am

» First Capital Holdings PLC: Current Financial performance and future outlook
by God Father Sun Mar 24, 2024 10:58 pm

» LankaBizz: Sri Lanka's First ever Artificially Intelligent (AI) Business and Research Assistant
by God Father Sun Mar 24, 2024 7:27 am

» HOTEL AND TRAVEL SECTOR
by ErangaDS Wed Mar 20, 2024 7:22 am

» CIC Holdings Good Times Ahead
by ashan silva Mon Mar 18, 2024 11:00 am

» EPF Fund keep eye on low P/E Shares
by K.R Mon Mar 18, 2024 8:45 am

» SINS - the Tailwind effects of a crisis hit Economy
by Hawk Eye Mon Mar 18, 2024 8:37 am

» Ceylon cold stores
by Hawk Eye Mon Mar 18, 2024 8:25 am

» Asha securities Provide buy signal for CIC
by ddrperera Fri Mar 15, 2024 1:10 am

» CSE ready for another Downtrend?
by D.G.Dayaratne Thu Mar 14, 2024 11:24 am

» LankaLAW Forum : Sri Lanka’s #1 Discussion Platform for Legal Questions and Answers
by blindhog Thu Mar 14, 2024 9:14 am

» Sri Lanka poised to benefit from demand surge for ‘non-China origin’ graphite
by samaritan Wed Mar 13, 2024 1:31 pm

LISTED COMPANIES

Submit Post
ශ්‍රී ලංකා මූල්‍ය වංශකථාව - සිංහල
Submit Post


CONATCT US


Send your suggestions and comments

* - required fields

Read FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ Disclaimer



EXPERT CHRONICLE™

ECONOMIC CHRONICLE

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP)



CHRONICLE™ YouTube

Disclaimer
FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ Disclaimer

The information contained in this FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ have been submitted by third parties directly without any verification by us. The information available in this forum is not researched or purported to be complete description of the subject matter referred to herein. We do not under any circumstances whatsoever guarantee the accuracy and completeness information contained herein. FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ its blogs, forums, domains, subdomains and/or its affiliates and/or its web masters, administrators or moderators shall not in any way be responsible or liable for loss or damage which any person or party may sustain or incur by relying on the contents of this report and acting directly or indirectly in any manner whatsoever. Trading or investing in stocks & commodities is a high risk activity. Any action you choose to take in the markets is totally your own responsibility, FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ blogs, forums, domains, subdomains and/or its affiliates and/or its web masters, administrators or moderators shall not be liable for any, direct or indirect, consequential or incidental damages or loss arising out of the use of this information. The information on this website is neither an offer to sell nor solicitation to buy any of the securities mentioned herein. The writers may or may not be trading in the securities mentioned.

Further the writers and users shall not induce or attempt to induce another person to trade in securities using this platform (a) by making or publishing any statement or by making any forecast that he knows to be misleading, false or deceptive; (b) by any dishonest concealment of material facts; (c) by the reckless making or publishing, dishonestly or otherwise of any statement or forecast that is misleading, false or deceptive; or (d) by recording or storing in, or by means of, any mechanical, electronic or other device, information that he knows to be false or misleading in a material particular. Any action writers and users take in respect of (a),(b),(c) and (d) above shall be their own responsibility, FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ its blogs, forums, domains, subdomains and/or its affiliates and/or its web masters, administrators or moderators shall not be liable for any, direct or indirect, consequential or incidental violation of securities laws of any country, damages or loss arising out of the use of this information.


AI Live Chat

You are not connected. Please login or register

Clarification on the Erroneous Report regarding Sri Lanka issued by Nomura Holdings Inc.

2 posters

Go down  Message [Page 1 of 1]

ruwan326

ruwan326
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

Clarification on the Erroneous Report regarding Sri Lanka issued by Nomura Holdings Inc.

September, 17, 2018

Clarification on the Erroneous Report regarding Sri Lanka issued by Nomura Holdings Inc. Nomura-holdings
Several international media sites have recently quoted an analysis by Nomura Holdings Inc., which shows that seven emerging economies including Sri Lanka are at risk of an exchange rate crisis.
The said media sites further quoted the report as saying Sri Lanka’s short term external debt is as high as US dollars 160 billion. As Sri Lanka’s short term external debt is nowhere near this figure, the Central Bank of Sri Lanka requested Nomura to correct the errors in their computations.1
In response, according to Bloomberg, Nomura has “corrected their ‘Damocles’ report to fix Sri Lanka’s short term debt figure to be US dollars 7.5 billion” in an emailed statement to media. Nomura has, however, kept the ‘Damocles score’ for Sri Lanka unchanged.
The Central Bank wishes to point out that the ‘Damocles score’ published by Nomura is a rudimentary attempt to build an index based on eight indicators and threshold values for the selected indicators. The score is then used to show the likelihood of crisis in a country in the period ahead. A score of above 100, according to Nomura, suggests a country is vulnerable to an exchange rate crisis in the next 12 months, while a reading above 150 signals that a crisis could erupt at any time. Nomura has computed Sri Lanka’s score at 175, while assigning lower values to countries that are currently facing severe economic and financial strains. Any methodology that yields outcomes whereby Sri Lanka’s score is substantially worse than countries like Argentina, Turkey, and South Africa does not appear to be sufficiently nuanced to capture market realities and dynamics.
A closer look at Nomura’s ‘Damocles score’ for Sri Lanka shows that it has remained above the 100 continuously since 2012 except for a few months in 2013/14. At times, the ‘score’ has even hit the upper bound of 200. Therefore, it is evident that in the case of Sri Lanka, this rudimentary index cannot be considered an indicator/predictor of crisis. It is because the score does neither consider a particular country’s distance from threshold values nor the country-specific circumstances, that Sri Lanka is listed as a country that is at greater risk of crisis than countries like Argentina and Turkey. For example, in the Nomura analysis, the short term external debt to exports ratio includes goods only. Services, including tourism, and remittances are excluded. By not focusing on all current account flows, the ‘score’ exaggerates the country's vulnerability. Moreover, the broad money to foreign reserves ratio does not properly interpret the cause of the increase in the former. The recent increase in broad money was due to an increase in the net foreign assets (NFA) of the banking system, which has, in fact, reduced the country's external vulnerability. The real short-term interest rate indicator for Sri Lanka is also marginally above Nomura’s threshold. This has been caused by a reduction in inflation rather than an increase in interest rates. These examples demonstrate how the binary methodology used by Nomura could be misleading.
Nomura’s error in relation to Sri Lanka’s short term external debt figure itself shows that the said report has not undergone a thorough review before publication. Indeed, the rigourousness of any analysis based on the predictive power of an index, which cannot differentiate between short term debt of US dollars 7.5 billion and US dollars 160 billion, in an economy with a GDP of around US dollars 90 billion and gross official reserves of around US dollars 8.6 billion, is questionable.
Therefore, the investors and the general public are advised to form their own informed opinion with regard to Sri Lanka’s macroeconomic conditions and potential.

http://bizenglish.adaderana.lk/clarification-on-the-erroneous-report-regarding-sri-lanka-issued-by-nomura-holdings-inc/

jayathu


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

From 2005 to 2014 economic and debt management

•Debt to GDP ratio: 71% (down from 91% in 2005)
•Total Debt - Rs. 7,391 billion; of which, External Debt - Rs. 3,113 billion: Domestic Debt – Rs. 4,278 billion
External Debt to GDP: 30.0% (down from 39.0% in 2005)
Domestic Debt to GDP: 41.3% (down from 51.6% in 2005)
•Average time to Maturity of Domestic Debt: 5 years and 8 months (up from 2 years and 5 months, in 2005)
•Total Chinese Debt, mainly Project-related: $ 4.5 billion
Percentage of Chinese Debt out of Total Debt: 8%
•Total International Sovereign Bonds outstanding: $ 5.5 billion
Percentage of ISBs, (mainly held by US and Western Investors) out of Total Debt: 10%
•Interest cost was Rs. 443 billion or 4.2% of GDP.

Current situation by this govt actions according CB data, who’re creating robust economy for future growth.

• now Chinese debt has increased to 8 billion (77% increase) more loans in the pipeline.
•International sovereign bonds mainly held with US and western countries is about $11.6 billion(more than $3.6 billion more than Chinese debt).
((To all the people who say we’re in Chinese debt trap please conveyor this information to them. We have more debt in international sovereign bonds hold by western countries than Chinese bonds.* International sovereign bonds interest is much higher than Chinese loans also))
•Debt to GDP ratio has shot up to 87% from 71% in 2014.
•Interest Cost has jumped to 820 billion, nearly doubling our interest cost within 3 n 1/2 years.

ruwan326

ruwan326
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

jayathu wrote:From 2005 to 2014 economic and debt management

•Debt to GDP ratio: 71% (down from 91% in 2005)
•Total Debt - Rs. 7,391 billion; of which, External Debt - Rs. 3,113 billion: Domestic Debt –     Rs. 4,278 billion
External Debt to GDP: 30.0% (down from 39.0% in 2005)
Domestic Debt to GDP: 41.3% (down from 51.6% in 2005)
•Average time to Maturity of Domestic Debt: 5 years and 8 months (up from 2 years and 5 months, in 2005)
•Total Chinese Debt, mainly Project-related: $ 4.5 billion
Percentage of Chinese Debt out of Total Debt: 8%
•Total International Sovereign Bonds outstanding: $ 5.5 billion
Percentage of ISBs, (mainly held by US and Western Investors) out of Total Debt: 10%
•Interest cost was Rs. 443 billion or 4.2% of GDP.

Current situation by this govt actions according CB data, who’re creating robust economy for future growth.

• now Chinese debt has increased to 8 billion (77% increase) more loans in the pipeline.
•International sovereign bonds mainly held with US and western countries is about $11.6 billion(more than $3.6 billion more than Chinese debt).
((To all the people who say we’re in Chinese debt trap please conveyor this information to them. We have more debt in international sovereign bonds hold by western countries than Chinese bonds.* International sovereign bonds interest is much higher than Chinese loans also))
•Debt to GDP ratio has shot up to 87% from 71% in 2014.
•Interest Cost has jumped to 820 billion, nearly doubling our interest cost within 3 n 1/2 years.
I think investors follow "Reverse psychology" theory these days when it comes to statement from Srilankan central bank Wink Wink Wink

Sponsored content



Back to top  Message [Page 1 of 1]

Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum