JANASHAKTHI INSURANCE COMPANY PLC (JINS.N0000)

thighrokker wrote:

slstock wrote:

san1985 wrote:

thighrokker wrote:Undervalued?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=JINS:SL
shows that JINS is at an all-time high.
On what basis is it under valued?

It has not gone this up in the past....

It may trade at all time high, but you cannot avoid the fact that it still is undervalued.

EPS for the Y/E 31/12/2010 is 2.12.

So at current market price it trades at a PE of 9(19.2/2.12).

Correct with their EPS JINS is still undervalued in its sector. It might be interesting to note, that JINS IPO was at Rs 12 several years ago. This is one of the longest staganated share with regards to IPO price.

Is there a way to get the Insurance sector PE?
Anyone has this?

I think it goes under BFI

http://cse.lk/sectors/sectorSummary.htm

one reason for being stagnant for long time was the fact that it is more off a family run business (As I heard)... Is this correct ?

is wrote:one reason for being stagnant for long time was the fact that it is more off a family run business (As I heard)... Is this correct ?

Shafter family is behind JINS,CFVF and CSEC, KDL companies

@slstock.

Is this a reason for stagnation... If so how come that affect ? As I know they paid/are paying good div too.

any ideas/hints how high JINS may go?

econ wrote:I think all the janashakthi group companies (CSEC,JINS,CFVF) are still undervalued compare with other companies in the financial sector.

That is a well known factor in the market for years..!!
How higher their prices go up eventually will come back more or less to the same level

thighrokker wrote:

slstock wrote:

san1985 wrote:

thighrokker wrote:Undervalued?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=JINS:SL
shows that JINS is at an all-time high.
On what basis is it under valued?

It has not gone this up in the past....

It may trade at all time high, but you cannot avoid the fact that it still is undervalued.

EPS for the Y/E 31/12/2010 is 2.12.

So at current market price it trades at a PE of 9(19.2/2.12).

Correct with their EPS JINS is still undervalued in its sector. It might be interesting to note, that JINS IPO was at Rs 12 several years ago. This is one of the longest staganated share with regards to IPO price.

Is there a way to get the Insurance sector PE?
Anyone has this?

i think jins has a cross holding of csec

osmand wrote:Dear Friends what is the reason JINS

I sold all my JINS today at a thin 5% markup after holding for four months. I will re-purchase them if they show better signs next week.

i think cfvf has more value in it.

can we expect dividends from cfvf?

Note: currently i hold 20,000 cfvf, do your homework before making any decision.

i came across this during me research
http://investors.lk/11178/JINS+++what+do+yall+think+of+this+stock%3F
[[[[[ ---quote

it's good it'll eventually reach 30-40 in my book, especially if they can muster up an EPS close to 2 this half. one of my few long term investments

reply from Mononoke on 20 Jan

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** Is this applicable in the current context?

** Dear moderator, i am not sure if i am allowed to post references from other sites. If inappropriate, pls delete this.

UKboy wrote:

econ wrote:I think all the janashakthi group companies (CSEC,JINS,CFVF) are still undervalued compare with other companies in the financial sector.

That is a well known factor in the market for years..!!
How higher their prices go up eventually will come back more or less to the same level

UK BOY you have the most sensible view on these stock...!

why JINS .N0000 ( janashakthi insurance) not moving even the fundamentals are strong..
even the they pay a very good dividend..

That is the problem with CSE. Fundamental don't move....

Not pbm with CSE, Pbm with director, Schaffer.. Matser mind behind CFVF group..That s less volatile share even during up-trend also

JINS:

Total number of shares as at 06/30/2011: 363,000,132

Profits for the 6 months ending 31/12/2010: 624,910,000 EPS = 1.71
Profits for 6 months ending 06/30/2011: 218,115,000 EPS = 0.60 (the quarterly report says 0.77 but I don't know how they got it).

If you look at the two statements you can see that for the 6 months ending 31/12/2010, they have a 200Mil difference in "Other revenue" section (income statement). Let's be conservative and estimate an EPS of 0.60 for the next 6 months (ending 31/12/2011) - I suppose they'll publish this report soon.

So, our estimated EPS for the year ending 31/12/2011 is 1.2 per share. So, this share has a P/E around 10 for a price around 12 Rs.

The question is, is it a good P/E compared to other financial institutions / banks? analyse COMB.X, HNB.X, SAMP.N and see for yourself. Also compare dividends. A share can be "fundamental" (i.e not JUNK) but that doesn't mean its share price is always justified.

My personal opinion is JINS.N is an OK share for around 12 rupees (I already hold some quantity around 11.50 I think). But I can't say for sure that this share will not fall further (there are banks with much lower P/E values - this share "could" correct more - I don't know).

Cheers!

UPDATE: SOME ISSUES WITH THIS POST HAS BEEN CORRECTED BELOW (READ THE WHOLE DISCUSSION)

I'm more worried about their ability to keep paying dividends. I collected some between LKR 10.9 - 13.00 as part of dividend earning long term portfolio. At LKR 11.00, a LKR 1.00 dividend is a 9% yield.

Is this worth (less than 12) as a short term investment?

Argh!

I've compared an insurance company against financial institutions / banks. I think that is wrong. I have JINS and banks on the same watch list, this is what lead to this mistake.

In any case, the rest of the post holds.

Cheers!

anubis wrote:JINS:

Total number of shares as at 06/30/2011: 363,000,132

Profits for the 6 months ending 31/12/2010: 624,910,000 EPS = 1.71
Profits for 6 months ending 06/30/2011: 218,115,000 EPS = 0.60 (the quarterly report says 0.77 but I don't know how they got it).

If you look at the two statements you can see that for the 6 months ending 31/12/2010, they have a 200Mil difference in "Other revenue" section (income statement). Let's be conservative and estimate an EPS of 0.60 for the next 6 months (ending 31/12/2011) - I suppose they'll publish this report soon.

So, our estimated EPS for the year ending 31/12/2011 is 1.2 per share. So, this share has a P/E around 10 for a price around 12 Rs.

The question is, is it a good P/E compared to other financial institutions / banks? analyse COMB.X, HNB.X, SAMP.N and see for yourself. Also compare dividends. A share can be "fundamental" (i.e not JUNK) but that doesn't mean its share price is always justified.

My personal opinion is JINS.N is an OK share for around 12 rupees (I already hold some quantity around 11.50 I think). But I can't say for sure that this share will not fall further (there are banks with much lower P/E values - this share "could" correct more - I don't know).

Cheers!

Thanks anubis.
Your price seems to be OK for short and medium term.
Only my worry regarding this share is the management.
We'll see.

@raa: an interesting question, have you analysed JINS.N dividend history against EPS values? I saw a research report in the research section about dividend histories of different listed companies: http://research.srilankaequity.com/t238-cse-quoted-company-s-dividend-history-updated-on-13-02-2012 (you need to re-register there).

May it's worth looking at JINS.N dividend history (if that's available in above report) and checking if they have been consistent.

Cheers!

anubis wrote:JINS:

Total number of shares as at 06/30/2011: 363,000,132

Profits for the 6 months ending 31/12/2010: 624,910,000 EPS = 1.71
Profits for 6 months ending 06/30/2011: 218,115,000 EPS = 0.60 (the quarterly report says 0.77 but I don't know how they got it).

If you look at the two statements you can see that for the 6 months ending 31/12/2010, they have a 200Mil difference in "Other revenue" section (income statement). Let's be conservative and estimate an EPS of 0.60 for the next 6 months (ending 31/12/2011) - I suppose they'll publish this report soon.

So, our estimated EPS for the year ending 31/12/2011 is 1.2 per share. So, this share has a P/E around 10 for a price around 12 Rs.

The question is, is it a good P/E compared to other financial institutions / banks? analyse COMB.X, HNB.X, SAMP.N and see for yourself. Also compare dividends. A share can be "fundamental" (i.e not JUNK) but that doesn't mean its share price is always justified.

My personal opinion is JINS.N is an OK share for around 12 rupees (I already hold some quantity around 11.50 I think). But I can't say for sure that this share will not fall further (there are banks with much lower P/E values - this share "could" correct more - I don't know).

Cheers!

Anubis,
Their 2010 Year ending eps was 2.12. Usually for Insurance companies last quarter of the year earnings are higher than the previous quarters ( 6 Month up to June). I am not sure whether this year eps will drop as much as 1.2 . They already reported 0.77 eps for 2011 June . That means 6 month earning will be only Rs 0.43.

There is some investor sentiment issue due to owner family. CFVF and CSEC already had some issues . But JINS after an initial 2009 issue with the insurance board which was resolved quickly ( not a financial fraud) had so far been fraud free. I do not know whether there is any issue recently.

ANyway , jsut note the below facts

1) IPO price in 2008 was Rs 12. Now trading below IPO after 4 years!
2) I recall million of shares were traded when it ran over Rs 20.
3) In 2009 they paid RS 2 dividend. Afterward they have been paying RS 1 dividned. Dividend yield will be one of the highest at CSE for this share if they pay Rs 1 again and your share average is around Rs 12.

@slstock: thank you very much for this valuable info!

Experience matters!!!

We'll see how it'll go down this year, hoping for the best!!!

(PS: I think you meant "Their 2010* Year ending eps was 2.12)

Cheers!

anubis wrote:JINS:

Total number of shares as at 06/30/2011: 363,000,132

Profits for the 6 months ending 31/12/2010: 624,910,000 EPS = 1.71
Profits for 6 months ending 06/30/2011: 218,115,000 EPS = 0.60 (the quarterly report says 0.77 but I don't know how they got it).

If you look at the two statements you can see that for the 6 months ending 31/12/2010, they have a 200Mil difference in "Other revenue" section (income statement). Let's be conservative and estimate an EPS of 0.60 for the next 6 months (ending 31/12/2011) - I suppose they'll publish this report soon.

So, our estimated EPS for the year ending 31/12/2011 is 1.2 per share. So, this share has a P/E around 10 for a price around 12 Rs.

The question is, is it a good P/E compared to other financial institutions / banks? analyse COMB.X, HNB.X, SAMP.N and see for yourself. Also compare dividends. A share can be "fundamental" (i.e not JUNK) but that doesn't mean its share price is always justified.

My personal opinion is JINS.N is an OK share for around 12 rupees (I already hold some quantity around 11.50 I think). But I can't say for sure that this share will not fall further (there are banks with much lower P/E values - this share "could" correct more - I don't know).

Cheers!

You have got the number wrong... it is not 218,115,000 it is 280,115,000... Refer quarterly accounts!

Dividend Paid after the IPO.
From their annual Report.


Interim Dividend announced in 2011.(May be that will be Final Dividend for 2011)

@greedy: many thanks for correcting this!

To be honest I was looking all over the place for what mistake I have made. I maintain separate spread-sheets for analysis and it seems I have entered the wrong number when populating the sheet (sadly, it's a manual process atm).

So, re-estimated EPS = 0.77 * 2 = 1.54

And according to slstock this could be even higher. So, it "looks" this share is undervalued at the moment. Again, no promises, it could go either ways - that's the nature.

Anyway, let's wait and see

Cheers!

According to the CSE website..

Dividends were post IPO
4Q2008 - 0.50
4Q2009 - 2.00
1Q2010 - 1.00
1Q2011 - 1.00
1Q2012 - ?.??

So if one bought a 1,000 shares at IPO @ 12.00 and still held till today, they'd still be up because they have already received LKR 4,500.00 as dividends. That is a 9% return per year!!

If they sold at LKR 20.00 last year, then profit would be LKR 4,500 + LKR 8,000 = LKR 12,500.

I'm happy if i can get 9% a year on a share until I wait for the share price to run to LKR 24.00 and sell out. That is my plan.

Continuing from sriranga's post on dividends:

[2010]
Profits = 770,348,000
EPS = 2.12
Dividend = 1

[2011] (so far)
Profits = 280,115,000
EPS = 0.77

Since they have given 1Rs dividend for 2011 already, I'd expect the EPS for 2011 to be around the same levels as in 2010 (at the least). In order to get that much EPS, their profits should be around (770,348,000 - 280,115,000) 490,233,000 for the last 6 months ended 31/12/2011. And the corresponding EPS for that period would be (490,233,000 / 363,000,132) 1.35

Note that I have assumed that the share count has remained constant throughout 2010 - 2011 (which i believe is the case - according to reports).

So, If they report an EPS of 1.35 or above in their next report (for the 6 months ending 31/12/2011), we can say the company is on track!

Or is this not a correct judgement? I'm not confident in the above way of reasoning (bit of a newbie still). Please correct me if I'm wrong.

Cheers!

Investment portfolio of JINS mainly consist of treasury bills and treasury bonds. During stock market boom and lower interest rates in 2010 and 2011, JINS's was not on a good side. Because they did not benefit from the stock market boom. But now the opposite happening in 2012! So... will that benefit the company in some way?


I DO NOT HOLD JINS SHARES.

anubis wrote:Continuing from sriranga's post on dividends:

[2010]
Profits = 770,348,000
EPS = 2.12
Dividend = 1

[2011] (so far)
Profits = 280,115,000
EPS = 0.77

Since they have given 1Rs dividend for 2011 already, I'd expect the EPS for 2011 to be around the same levels as in 2010 (at the least). In order to get that much EPS, their profits should be around (770,348,000 - 280,115,000) 490,233,000 for the last 6 months ended 31/12/2011. And the corresponding EPS for that period would be (490,233,000 / 363,000,132) 1.35

Note that I have assumed that the share count has remained constant throughout 2010 - 2011 (which i believe is the case - according to reports).

So, If they report an EPS of 1.35 or above in their next report, we can say the company is on track!

Or is this a not correct judgement? I'm not confident in the above way of reasoning (bit of a newbie still). Please correct me if I'm wrong.

Cheers!

Ofcourse if we they can show YoY growth that will be good. SO if they beat 2010 eps of 2.12 it will be good. Even oif they fall a bit short I guess they could give a Rs 1 Dividend. ( presuming nothing drastic happened within the last 6 months)

Please see the following detail.
From that you can judge their past performance to certain extend.