TEEJAY LANKA PLC (TJL.N0000)

The stock is very very bullish. Unable to do a further study because the cse.lk site is bullshit these days.

Dividend declared, good profits,company enhanced,GSP+ on da way.. What else?? 45+ midterm.:-)

Have some exports companies shares. GSP Plus is possible this time.

After a huge battle with CSE website managed to get some info for a detailed analysis. You can refer below table for a summary and FY 2016/17 forecast.

	2010/11	2011/12	2012/13	2013/14	2014/15	2015/16	2016/17F
Turnover	9,285	12,364	10,951	12,725	13,678	17,830	19,613
GP margin	11.7%	10.3%	11.6%	11.5%	11.9%	16.9%	16.0%
Net profits	685	629	1,016	1,153	1,332	2,172	2,354
NP margin	7.4%	5.1%	9.3%	9.1%	9.7%	12.2%	12.0%
EPS	1.2	1.0	1.6	1.8	2.0	3.1	3.4
DPS		0.48	1.24	1.3	1.3	1.6	1.70
DY %				8.2%	5.4%	5.0%	4.6%
PER		-	-	9.0	11.9	10.2	11.0

As you can see in the above table TJL has consistently maintain a healthy profit margin till 2014/15. In the year 2015/16 the margin jumps to 17%, a 5pp increase over last year as well the revenue leapfrog by 30%. The jump had mainly happen in Q2 and Q3 where LKR depreciated heavily. Subsequently in Q4 (Jan-Mar 16 period) I observed a decline in revenue QoQ where the LKR depreciation was by only 0.6 rupees. This clearly shows that FY 2015/16 is clearly benefitted to TJL by LKR depreciation and as a result huge improvement in share price as well.
Next year I won't see such a depreciation in LKR so that any revenue growth to be of normal growth in business volumes but margins going to be same. Therefore I expect a PAT of 2.35bn for next year. In terms of valuations, the share is currently trading @ a PE of11x @ CMP which is equal to their historical average PE. This means that the share is currently trading @ a fair price and so short term gains will be very low based on intrinsic value method. However given their strong annual growth earnings outlook in the longer term we can expect an annual compound growth rate of 10% for the stock price subject to positive overall market growth momentum. Also you can expect an annual DY of 5% which is very attractive compared to market DY. This stock is recommended for value investors who are willing to build a long term-growing portfolio.

Thanks

Fantastic,, hats off for ur effort.

Few months ago I thought EC is reappearing of SLS in new identity

Goodwork EC.

@Chinwi wrote:Few months ago I thought EC is reappearing of SLS in new  identity

EquityChamp was a profile created initially with a fondness to participate actively in this Forum. Later on I identified how it was in the past and from there to current state. I understood and research how the past giants were contributing. People like SLS,Small, etc were fantastic fundamental analysts and people like Shark,RPPA etc were fantastic technical analysts. So I decided EquityChamp profile should be positioned as an ideal blend of fundamental as well as technical analysis with a little bit flavor on humor.

So from there to now you see how the profile of EC evolves. If the members getting any advantage from it then I am more than happy.

Thanks

This is the best and safer share in CSE currently coz of Many reasons.. So get in to it quckly before it accelerates .. :-)

@EquityChamp wrote:

@Chinwi wrote:Few months ago I thought EC is reappearing of SLS in new  identity

EquityChamp was a profile created initially with a fondness to participate actively in this Forum. Later on I identified how it was in the past and from there to current state. I understood and research how the past giants were contributing. People like SLS,Small, etc were fantastic fundamental analysts and people like Shark,RPPA etc were fantastic technical analysts. So I decided EquityChamp profile should be positioned as an ideal blend of fundamental as well as technical analysis with a little bit flavor on humor.

So from there to now you see how the profile of EC evolves. If the members getting any advantage from it then I am more than happy.

Thanks

Hats of dear EC

Den okka Maximum udata geela thiyenne..GSP magula denna kalin appahu okka pahalata ei...

Technical charts indicate TJL is in overbought condition though the daily and weekly charts show a buy signal. Better thing is to allow some time to cool-off the heat. May be it will stabilize around 35.

https://www.facebook.com/harshadesilvaunp/videos/806164702846843/

Dear EC,

How much discount (%) get for GSP+ and Did you consider it for your FY 2016/17 forecast ?

Thank you.

Price can drop to 34.50 but we don't know how will react by foreign party and GSP Plus.
99% GSP Plus is sure so accordingly flying 45/- also possible.
In approximately TJL has given me 13-14 lakh dividend income since I invested on it.
I respect TJL management, staff who dedicated to my return

If it come down to 35, what an oppurtunity to buy back.. i feel it wont come down to dat below by looking at its trading pattern. This is nt a fake run, dividend declared, GSP + soon. & Dnt forget ,having GSP + or not This share was driven by its consistent growth over the past few years. So nothing to worry about GSP factor, jst hold.

it is heading to 40 by this Friday.

@crnsuranjith wrote:it is heading to 40 by this Friday.

Share price ekkak ehema wedi kapu widiyata Ehema yanne bang...Okko 34 rata  33 ta wage ei...GSP lebunoth 40++ Sure..

Balan hitapan oka 34 ta enakan..

Ei malli awulda...??

@kumarweerarathne wrote:Balan hitapan oka 34 ta enakan..

Malli kohamada okka pahalata awe...34 rata ei sure...

Guys,
Can the American political scenario be an effect to TJL in long run? Specially if someone like Donald trump wins the election. I beleive America is one of the countries that buys our garments and Trump is a person who beleives in manufacturing in country than outsourcing.

TJL showing strong signs of surpassing 40/- level. It is a solid investment for long term investors.
GL.

1st quarter profits shot up by 93% due to strong growth in revenue. Looks like they are going to beat my forecast

it's almost ready for the next run up to 42-43

This is the best share I invested in my life with average cost per share around 8/- rupees. Dividend received nearly total capital invested.
Well done TJL