1) crude oil were traded above $60/per barrel troughout 2019
2) The company has managed to increase their market share by 6-8% during the year ( currently having 44% share of lubricant market in Sri Lanka )
“After two consecutive years of de-growth, the Retail channel demonstrated a growth of 4% over prior year by introducing low end cheaper products to the market (Annual report)
3)Increased Export volumes (Bangladesh) by 18%
2020- Covid 19 & going ahead-
1) Top line could be reduced due to Covid 19 impact on the economic activities but it will off set by the reduction Crude prices(almost 50% reduction).There for very little or no impact on the bottom line.
“Sri Lanka generated 12,46,863 MWh of electricity in January, 1,228,279 MWh in February, 1,206,069 MWh in March and 964,043 MWh in April 2020.Coal has contributed 41 per cent for the total electricity generation in Jan – Apr 2020 while Major hydro has contributed 21 per cent, and thermal oil has contributed 38 per cent.
- since being a major contributor to the thermal oil energy generators , this will help the companies revenue generation during the hard hit first quarter due to lockdown.
2) Going forward the company will get strong competition mainly from CEPETCO & LIOC, but being the market leader they are in a good position by adopting good strategies to increase the local market as well as the foreign markets.
*Dividend policy would be the most attractive factor when it comes to LLUB*
The company known for paying
earnings as dividends
I’m expecting them to do the same earnings as last year,RS 8.75 & to declare a Dividend of 8.5RS ( mainly due to cash flow issues facing by its parent company in the US , due to lockdown & lower oil prices)
Currently LLUB trading @ 68 (12.5% dividend yield) where as FD rates around 7-8% .
I’m expecting LLUB to come back to its glory days with 10+ earnings when the economic activities started to picked up(post Covid)
*This is an another share similar to RCL , has the ability to trade above 100 in the medium term.
********I’d buy this as an investment for the long term*******