PIRAMAL GLASS CEYLON PLC (GLAS.N0000)

dilshangac wrote:

Eranga87 wrote:

Mithooshan wrote:

dilshangac wrote:

Mithooshan wrote:

dilshangac wrote:I recommended between 4/- 5/- for collections. But Current price is not recommend to enter for GLAS. It's pretty over valued now. You need to switch at the right time otherwise you will loose.

@dilshangac it will be helpful if you could show how you derived at the over valuation for the members of the forum ?
This will help them make an informed decision. Thanks.

Edit:
P/E ratio - 15 (Based on Investing.com)
Last quarter EPS - 0.38 (Based on interim F/S)
Estimated Annual EPS (Conservative Estimate)  - 0.98 (-0.05+0.38+(0.30*2))

Then Market Price - 14.70 (0.98*15)

Based on my valuation minimum Market Price of RS.14 is very much justifiable if they can sustain the EPS.

Source
Interim Financial Statement -
https://cdn.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/666_1602584613462.pdf

Investing.com -
https://m.investing.com/equities/piramal-glass-ceylon

RAL is more powerful than this. You can Compare

If the share is fundamentally good. Tell what is good in RAL. Why do you need to take GLAS to highlight RAL. It is ugly. No offense to anyone. My personal view only.
(Even if i amend the P/E for 10, still a market price of RS.10 is Very very much Justifiable and Glass had traded @11 before with a price multiple of 18 in the year 2011, Can view the link for verification)

I see few others demoting Expo to promote other shares. If a share is good please make a valid argument rather than downgrading other shares to put off your frustrations. That is really not professional ladies and gentlemen.

Link - https://cdn.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/666_1594891756017.pdf

@dilshangac,
CHECK RAL dividend paid amount in the last 5 years. most of the years, they didn't pay anything. RAL only paid RS. 0.36CENTS per share for the last 5 years.
 
GLAS paid dividend Rs.1.20per share in the last 5 years.
 

both divided and capital gain can be get via GLAS rather than RAL.
Now, you determined which is the best one from the investor perspective. now which are powerful.

Look at the today closing prices of RAL and GLAS. I tried to point out the RAL has more potential to move up than the GLAS against to the current trading prices of those two. GLAS is closed in 7.20/- but RAL closed at 5.90/- so you have more than 15% gap if you go with RAL. Anyway I don't want to downgrade the GLAS. It's a good share but you guys can try. We have many options. Chances are there.

Eranga87 wrote:second quarter 2020/21 Revenue = Rs 2.2Bn 
second quarter 2020/21  net profit =Rs.360Mn
second quarter 2020/21  EPS            = Rs.0.38
Estimated Net Profit for 2020/21    = over Rs 1Bn
Estimated EPS for FY 2020/21          = over Rs 1.10 per share

Estimated share price for 2020/21 FY = Rs 16.5 [1.10 @ 15PE multiples]
 
GLAS,  September 2020 quarterly financials and annualized EPS clearly support beyond the current market price of Rs 7.50 and annualized estimated EPS will support increasing GLAS price movements(over 15 levels) in the future.  There are so many advantages potentially.
·         GLASS has a permanent supply order from CARLSBERG  from last year.
·         with the latest development in the self-sufficient economy ... SL is producing Medicine within the country up to an extent where special glass - bottles requirement popped up and GLASS will be the only supplier.


·          In the context of the Government decision to ban 1/4  arrack bottles a new requirement has arisen for a new load of 1/2 bottles and ....  again the only supplier will be GLASS
·         The management firmly believes that with the New Product Development and inroads into new markets such as Mexico, Angola and Indonesia as well as the increased demand from Australia, PGC will be able to sustain the ongoing operations profitably. “GLAS are witnessing a global surge in demand for glass containers in the Food and Pharmaceutical category; due to which PGC is poised to retain the volumes in domestic and international markets and continue the growth trajectory.
·         Blackstone(UAS) and Partner group AG(SWISS) have a race to acquire GLASS entity.





N.B: During the months of April and May 2020, sales were subdued as customers who were manufacturing only essential products were functioning and that too at just 50% capacity. Therefore, adversely affect to 1^st quarter financial results due to COVID 19 Lockdown situation. GLAS Clearly said, they fully utilized capacity level hence June 2020. I earlier mentioned reasons that will be benefited to increase their revenue and as well as net profit and EPS. This time can expect 0.80-0.90 dividend income per share.

ONTHEMONEY wrote:

Eranga87 wrote:second quarter 2020/21 Revenue = Rs 2.2Bn 
second quarter 2020/21  net profit =Rs.360Mn
second quarter 2020/21  EPS            = Rs.0.38
Estimated Net Profit for 2020/21    = over Rs 1Bn
Estimated EPS for FY 2020/21          = over Rs 1.10 per share

Estimated share price for 2020/21 FY = Rs 16.5 [1.10 @ 15PE multiples]
 
GLAS,  September 2020 quarterly financials and annualized EPS clearly support beyond the current market price of Rs 7.50 and annualized estimated EPS will support increasing GLAS price movements(over 15 levels) in the future.  There are so many advantages potentially.
·         GLASS has a permanent supply order from CARLSBERG  from last year.
·         with the latest development in the self-sufficient economy ... SL is producing Medicine within the country up to an extent where special glass - bottles requirement popped up and GLASS will be the only supplier.


·          In the context of the Government decision to ban 1/4  arrack bottles a new requirement has arisen for a new load of 1/2 bottles and ....  again the only supplier will be GLASS
·         The management firmly believes that with the New Product Development and inroads into new markets such as Mexico, Angola and Indonesia as well as the increased demand from Australia, PGC will be able to sustain the ongoing operations profitably. “GLAS are witnessing a global surge in demand for glass containers in the Food and Pharmaceutical category; due to which PGC is poised to retain the volumes in domestic and international markets and continue the growth trajectory.
·         Blackstone(UAS) and Partner group AG(SWISS) have a race to acquire GLASS entity.





N.B: During the months of April and May 2020, sales were subdued as customers who were manufacturing only essential products were functioning and that too at just 50% capacity. Therefore, adversely affect to 1^st quarter financial results due to COVID 19 Lockdown situation. GLAS Clearly said, they fully utilized capacity level hence June 2020. I earlier mentioned reasons that will be benefited to increase their revenue and as well as net profit and EPS. This time can expect 0.80-0.90 dividend income per share.

Hi Eranga87,

Thank you for sharing value content about GLAS. I fully endorse the basis of computation. However, PE15x could be slightly optimistic and strongly suggest of a PE multiple of 10x [market PE 10x as of 13.10.2020] where GLAS market value could be justified @ Rs 11/-. Additionally, I wish to share the following which I feel will add more value to investors.

It is wonderful that GLAS is able to release the first quarterly financials statements to CSE within 13 days from the quarter ending 30.09.2020 which all the investors/traders eagerly waiting for. 

Respecting the quick release of the financials, I did some more background research about the fundamentals, strategies of the company and future growth prospects about the company since @Eranga87 done fair job in analysis fundamentals.

Key Highlighting Items about #GLAS


1.Monopoly and only glass bottle manufacturer in Sri Lanka
Piramal Glass Ceylon PLC is the HOLDING A MONOPOLY for glass manufacturing in Sri Lanka with a rich history over 60 years. As the Island's sole manufacturer, Piramal Glass offers the entire molded range of glass bottles for the Food and Beverages, Pharmaceuticals, Liquor and Cosmetics & Perfume industries.

2. Recent CAPACITY EXPANSIONS in GLAS increasing the production lines from 5 to 6
A new addition to the facility was made with the installation of the 6th Production line in May 2019. This line has been installed mainly targeting the developed part of the world and has the flexibility of producing bottles in varied shapes & designs. The total investment for this project is approximately Rs.1Bn. This investment will facilitate the company to utilize its installed capacity to maximum.

Source - https://cdn.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/666_1594891756017.pdf

3. Total Imports value of GLASS and related GLAS types of items to Sri Lanka equivalent to Rs 1,887,000,000 during 2017.

The value of imports of commodity group 7010 "Carboys, bottles, flasks, jars, pots, phials, ampoules and other containers, of glass, of a kind used for the conveyance or packing of goods; preserving jars of glass; stoppers, lids and other closures, of glass." to Sri Lanka totaled $ 10.2 million in 2017

Source:https://trendeconomy.com/data/h2/SriLanka/7010 

4. Low production capacity utilization of 25% in 1Q 2020 noted in the press release published on 13.10.2020 by the company indicating 1Q20 as a ONE-OFF quarter in terms of performance.


5. The growth in Gross Profit margin from 18% to 24% in 2Q20 cf. 2Q19.


Significant Opportunities and Strengths of GLAS to reap the best potential


GLAS is the main supplier of glass bottles to all four leading spirit manufacturers – Distilleries Company of Sri Lanka, IDL, Rockland and Mendis securing a market share of 92%. The contribution to sales will be further fueled by the Government decision to ban 1/4  arrack bottles a new requirement has arisen for a new load of 1/2 bottles

The illicit liquor market of 40% presents a KEY GROWTH OPPORTUNITY of the spirit market

The overall strategy in the export product offering has been to concentrate on niche areas rather than serving vanilla products since GLAS. The demand of flavored water bottles for Canadian & North American markets & higher demand for food jars in Australia helped to surpass last year sales as noted in the press release published on 13.10.2020 by the company. 

Therefore, by looking at the GOVERMENT RESTRICTION OF GLAS IMPORTS in certain categories favoring the sole manufacturer in the country, strategic CAPACITY EXPANSIONS in  2019 focusing future growth and IMPROVED GROSS PROFIT MARGINS FROM 18% TO 24% justifies the STRONG EARNINGS POTENTIAL OF #GLAS in upcoming quarters. 


GLAS has become another penny stock performed exceptionally well like EXPO. I strongly feel many will place bids in coming days realizing the real value of the company being a monopoly with favorable Government policies to improve business volumes.


Good Luck

Mithooshan wrote:

ONTHEMONEY wrote:

Eranga87 wrote:second quarter 2020/21 Revenue = Rs 2.2Bn 
second quarter 2020/21  net profit =Rs.360Mn
second quarter 2020/21  EPS            = Rs.0.38
Estimated Net Profit for 2020/21    = over Rs 1Bn
Estimated EPS for FY 2020/21          = over Rs 1.10 per share

Estimated share price for 2020/21 FY = Rs 16.5 [1.10 @ 15PE multiples]
 
GLAS,  September 2020 quarterly financials and annualized EPS clearly support beyond the current market price of Rs 7.50 and annualized estimated EPS will support increasing GLAS price movements(over 15 levels) in the future.  There are so many advantages potentially.
·         GLASS has a permanent supply order from CARLSBERG  from last year.
·         with the latest development in the self-sufficient economy ... SL is producing Medicine within the country up to an extent where special glass - bottles requirement popped up and GLASS will be the only supplier.


·          In the context of the Government decision to ban 1/4  arrack bottles a new requirement has arisen for a new load of 1/2 bottles and ....  again the only supplier will be GLASS
·         The management firmly believes that with the New Product Development and inroads into new markets such as Mexico, Angola and Indonesia as well as the increased demand from Australia, PGC will be able to sustain the ongoing operations profitably. “GLAS are witnessing a global surge in demand for glass containers in the Food and Pharmaceutical category; due to which PGC is poised to retain the volumes in domestic and international markets and continue the growth trajectory.
·         Blackstone(UAS) and Partner group AG(SWISS) have a race to acquire GLASS entity.





N.B: During the months of April and May 2020, sales were subdued as customers who were manufacturing only essential products were functioning and that too at just 50% capacity. Therefore, adversely affect to 1^st quarter financial results due to COVID 19 Lockdown situation. GLAS Clearly said, they fully utilized capacity level hence June 2020. I earlier mentioned reasons that will be benefited to increase their revenue and as well as net profit and EPS. This time can expect 0.80-0.90 dividend income per share.

Hi Eranga87,

Thank you for sharing value content about GLAS. I fully endorse the basis of computation. However, PE15x could be slightly optimistic and strongly suggest of a PE multiple of 10x [market PE 10x as of 13.10.2020] where GLAS market value could be justified @ Rs 11/-. Additionally, I wish to share the following which I feel will add more value to investors.

It is wonderful that GLAS is able to release the first quarterly financials statements to CSE within 13 days from the quarter ending 30.09.2020 which all the investors/traders eagerly waiting for. 

Respecting the quick release of the financials, I did some more background research about the fundamentals, strategies of the company and future growth prospects about the company since @Eranga87 done fair job in analysis fundamentals.

Key Highlighting Items about #GLAS


1.Monopoly and only glass bottle manufacturer in Sri Lanka
Piramal Glass Ceylon PLC is the HOLDING A MONOPOLY for glass manufacturing in Sri Lanka with a rich history over 60 years. As the Island's sole manufacturer, Piramal Glass offers the entire molded range of glass bottles for the Food and Beverages, Pharmaceuticals, Liquor and Cosmetics & Perfume industries.

2. Recent CAPACITY EXPANSIONS in GLAS increasing the production lines from 5 to 6
A new addition to the facility was made with the installation of the 6th Production line in May 2019. This line has been installed mainly targeting the developed part of the world and has the flexibility of producing bottles in varied shapes & designs. The total investment for this project is approximately Rs.1Bn. This investment will facilitate the company to utilize its installed capacity to maximum.

Source - https://cdn.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/666_1594891756017.pdf

3. Total Imports value of GLASS and related GLAS types of items to Sri Lanka equivalent to Rs 1,887,000,000 during 2017.

The value of imports of commodity group 7010 "Carboys, bottles, flasks, jars, pots, phials, ampoules and other containers, of glass, of a kind used for the conveyance or packing of goods; preserving jars of glass; stoppers, lids and other closures, of glass." to Sri Lanka totaled $ 10.2 million in 2017

Source:https://trendeconomy.com/data/h2/SriLanka/7010 

4. Low production capacity utilization of 25% in 1Q 2020 noted in the press release published on 13.10.2020 by the company indicating 1Q20 as a ONE-OFF quarter in terms of performance.


5. The growth in Gross Profit margin from 18% to 24% in 2Q20 cf. 2Q19.


Significant Opportunities and Strengths of GLAS to reap the best potential


GLAS is the main supplier of glass bottles to all four leading spirit manufacturers – Distilleries Company of Sri Lanka, IDL, Rockland and Mendis securing a market share of 92%. The contribution to sales will be further fueled by the Government decision to ban 1/4  arrack bottles a new requirement has arisen for a new load of 1/2 bottles

The illicit liquor market of 40% presents a KEY GROWTH OPPORTUNITY of the spirit market

The overall strategy in the export product offering has been to concentrate on niche areas rather than serving vanilla products since GLAS. The demand of flavored water bottles for Canadian & North American markets & higher demand for food jars in Australia helped to surpass last year sales as noted in the press release published on 13.10.2020 by the company. 

Therefore, by looking at the GOVERMENT RESTRICTION OF GLAS IMPORTS in certain categories favoring the sole manufacturer in the country, strategic CAPACITY EXPANSIONS in  2019 focusing future growth and IMPROVED GROSS PROFIT MARGINS FROM 18% TO 24% justifies the STRONG EARNINGS POTENTIAL OF #GLAS in upcoming quarters. 


GLAS has become another penny stock performed exceptionally well like EXPO. I strongly feel many will place bids in coming days realizing the real value of the company being a monopoly with favorable Government policies to improve business volumes.


Good Luck

@onthemoney - What an analysis ! Bravo
Really appreciate the time and effort, you have a long way to go in stock market.

@Eranga87 - I was impressed by your analysis and your insights on this share as well. Specially when no attention was paid by other forum members. Good Job.

Love Boy wrote:However, I have seen big Inside traders behind this share. So, please be careful when you play with them.

ONTHEMONEY wrote:Hi all,

Thank you all for your appreciations. What I thought is in investing everyone should know where they put money and specifically how the future earnings growth of the company. 

What I advise is all the penny stocks are bullish and if you look at the volumes traded each day, I feel strong consolidated bull run is in most of the stocks. It can be mostly on trading perspective.

But there are few stocks like EXPO, GLAS out of the penny counters recorded strong financials out of the blue surprising all

Hence, can’t tell you buy or sell. It's your call.You may feel risky to enter #GLAS but may feel disappointed if goes beyond Rs 11/- in this market sentiment similar to #EXPO.

Good Luck

Mithooshan wrote:If the price band is removed, i think it might even reach Rs.10 levels within the day. Huge buying pressure for 23Mn where selling pressure is only 3Mn.

geesura wrote:

Mithooshan wrote:If the price band is removed, i think it might even reach Rs.10 levels within the day. Huge buying pressure for 23Mn where selling pressure is only 3Mn.

but most of the buying orders are below 7.5?

Eranga87 wrote:consecutive 3rd-day huge collection, everyday collections are increasing. now ready to the next level.
today,
GLAS is the most active share and one of a higher turnover of 569 Mn contributes to ASPI.

geesura wrote:

Eranga87 wrote:consecutive 3rd-day huge collection, everyday collections are increasing. now ready to the next level.
today,
GLAS is the most active share and one of a higher turnover of 569 Mn contributes to ASPI.

collection?.....without selling?..how?