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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » PIRAMAL GLASS CEYLON PLC (GLAS.N0000)

PIRAMAL GLASS CEYLON PLC (GLAS.N0000)

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981PIRAMAL GLASS CEYLON PLC (GLAS.N0000) - Page 50 Empty Re: PIRAMAL GLASS CEYLON PLC (GLAS.N0000) Sat Dec 19, 2020 11:21 am

abey


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
13 billion /no of shares                                                                                                                              13000000000/950086080                                                                                                          13.68  per share santa santa santa santa

982PIRAMAL GLASS CEYLON PLC (GLAS.N0000) - Page 50 Empty Re: PIRAMAL GLASS CEYLON PLC (GLAS.N0000) Sat Dec 19, 2020 12:07 pm

subash81


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Master D wrote:I have given  a 15 +  valuation in my previous analysis sometime back. Here is my update after the announcement.

Announcement clearly indicates the the seller is Piramal Glass pvt ( referred as  "seller" in the announcement)  limited who owns 56'% Piramal Glass Ceylon plc ( refers as the "company" in the announcement).


It clearly says the deal is made for the enterprise value of the "Company" aka Piramal Glass Ceylon PLC. Thus value of PLC = 5166000000 INR

Value of PLC =  5,166,000,000*2.5 = 12,915,000,000 LKR (  12 billion +)

No of shares total in PLC= 950086080


Considered value of GLASS a share =  12,915,000,000 /950,086,080  =  14/- LKR

Thus valuation of GLASS comes to 14/-  a share before the final adjustment as per the debt component changes of the company from the valuation date till transaction date.  ( to be announced) 

Companies will not take large debt when there is a deal on the cards but small working capital requirements will be there which the price above to be adjusted (  +/- 5% as per my estimate)

and also, since given the nature of the transaction i expect a mandatory offer at the same price.

If you buy today 40%-50% gain within few days !

Master D
What about debt 3.2billion
If they deduct for debt then only around Rs 10.40 coming  Question

983PIRAMAL GLASS CEYLON PLC (GLAS.N0000) - Page 50 Empty Re: PIRAMAL GLASS CEYLON PLC (GLAS.N0000) Sat Dec 19, 2020 12:22 pm

Master D


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@subash81 wrote:
@Master D wrote:I have given  a 15 +  valuation in my previous analysis sometime back. Here is my update after the announcement.

Announcement clearly indicates the the seller is Piramal Glass pvt ( referred as  "seller" in the announcement)  limited who owns 56'% Piramal Glass Ceylon plc ( refers as the "company" in the announcement).


It clearly says the deal is made for the enterprise value of the "Company" aka Piramal Glass Ceylon PLC. Thus value of PLC = 5166000000 INR

Value of PLC =  5,166,000,000*2.5 = 12,915,000,000 LKR (  12 billion +)

No of shares total in PLC= 950086080


Considered value of GLASS a share =  12,915,000,000 /950,086,080  =  14/- LKR

Thus valuation of GLASS comes to 14/-  a share before the final adjustment as per the debt component changes of the company from the valuation date till transaction date.  ( to be announced) 

Companies will not take large debt when there is a deal on the cards but small working capital requirements will be there which the price above to be adjusted (  +/- 5% as per my estimate)

and also, since given the nature of the transaction i expect a mandatory offer at the same price.

If you buy today 40%-50% gain within few days !

Master D
What about debt 3.2billion
If they deduct for debt then only around Rs 10.40 coming  Question

agreed on the debt part.
But only the financial statements of the December quarter will tell the correct picture of the debt levels.
Given that they had higher sales and lower interest cost could lead to decreased debt levels.

value would be much higher than 10.40

984PIRAMAL GLASS CEYLON PLC (GLAS.N0000) - Page 50 Empty Re: PIRAMAL GLASS CEYLON PLC (GLAS.N0000) Sat Dec 19, 2020 1:20 pm

Raymond


Stock Analytic
Stock Analytic
Isn't 56% of 950086080 equal to 532048204.
And that's what 12,915,000,000 LKR was paid for.


So shouldn't the share value be much more than what is stated.

lal62 likes this post

985PIRAMAL GLASS CEYLON PLC (GLAS.N0000) - Page 50 Empty Re: PIRAMAL GLASS CEYLON PLC (GLAS.N0000) Sat Dec 19, 2020 1:25 pm

Raymond


Stock Analytic
Stock Analytic
enterprise value of the "Company" seems to explain the 950086080 figure. but 44% is owned by the rest. either they give an mandatory offer to buy or let it be. since the future is very bright with revenue, they might go for an mandatory offer and buy out the rest which is 44%. So maybe the wise thing is to keep it. This share is directly related to the mass production of glass vials. If there is a mandatory offer it might be attractive than what we think.

986PIRAMAL GLASS CEYLON PLC (GLAS.N0000) - Page 50 Empty Re: PIRAMAL GLASS CEYLON PLC (GLAS.N0000) Sat Dec 19, 2020 1:58 pm

Master D


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Of course.
and also, no body values the company ignoring the  current debt levels.
They know debt is there.  value will be adjusted only for the chnages in debt.

NOT that, you blindly give a value to company and later come and say lets now consider debts and reduce the value by 30%.  we are talking about worlds best investment company here. They cant be that stupid

lal62 likes this post

987PIRAMAL GLASS CEYLON PLC (GLAS.N0000) - Page 50 Empty Re: PIRAMAL GLASS CEYLON PLC (GLAS.N0000) Sat Dec 19, 2020 2:05 pm

Raymond


Stock Analytic
Stock Analytic
Yes the point that
value will be adjusted only for the changes in debt. sounds right.
So on the above valuations it would be around 14 and it would be starting point for this share. The immediate future will quickly tell the real potential.

lal62 likes this post

988PIRAMAL GLASS CEYLON PLC (GLAS.N0000) - Page 50 Empty Re: PIRAMAL GLASS CEYLON PLC (GLAS.N0000) Sat Dec 19, 2020 2:08 pm

Bakkabwoi

Bakkabwoi
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
so i have question..can we reject the mandatory offere?

989PIRAMAL GLASS CEYLON PLC (GLAS.N0000) - Page 50 Empty Re: PIRAMAL GLASS CEYLON PLC (GLAS.N0000) Sat Dec 19, 2020 2:31 pm

Raymond


Stock Analytic
Stock Analytic
The investment company bought this for the sole purpose to make money, which they certainly will from glass vials. For the shareholders the mandatory offer should be extremely attractive.

990PIRAMAL GLASS CEYLON PLC (GLAS.N0000) - Page 50 Empty Re: PIRAMAL GLASS CEYLON PLC (GLAS.N0000) Sat Dec 19, 2020 2:37 pm

Vishwanarth


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Bakkabwoi wrote:so i have question..can we reject the mandatory offere?

Mr. Bakka
What is the result of mandatory offer? They cant infavorable to shareholders as per CSE legal protection no?

Bakkabwoi likes this post

991PIRAMAL GLASS CEYLON PLC (GLAS.N0000) - Page 50 Empty Re: PIRAMAL GLASS CEYLON PLC (GLAS.N0000) Sat Dec 19, 2020 2:43 pm

Raymond


Stock Analytic
Stock Analytic
@Bakkabwoi wrote:so i have question..can we reject the mandatory offere?
this is what I found

As a stock investor, you may receive an offer to "tender your shares" if an investor extends an offer to purchase a company's outstanding securities from its shareholders. The investor sweetens the deal typically by offering a premium - a higher price than the existing company's stock price. Although you can refuse the tender offer, which means that you do not sell your shares, you may stand to make a bigger profit (and in a much quicker time frame) if you accept the deal. If you don't tender your shares, you'll likely receive the cash or stock you would have received had you tendered them up-front. But in the case of a merger of acquisition, you won't receive payment until the acquisition or merger is complete, which can take a while.

Bakkabwoi likes this post

992PIRAMAL GLASS CEYLON PLC (GLAS.N0000) - Page 50 Empty Re: PIRAMAL GLASS CEYLON PLC (GLAS.N0000) Sat Dec 19, 2020 2:45 pm

Raymond


Stock Analytic
Stock Analytic
The important part is

The investor sweetens the deal typically by offering a premium - a higher price than the existing company's stock price.


So it would be wise to hold on to what you got until the mandatory offer.


Bakkabwoi likes this post

993PIRAMAL GLASS CEYLON PLC (GLAS.N0000) - Page 50 Empty Re: PIRAMAL GLASS CEYLON PLC (GLAS.N0000) Sat Dec 19, 2020 3:10 pm

subash81


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Master D wrote:
@subash81 wrote:
@Master D wrote:I have given  a 15 +  valuation in my previous analysis sometime back. Here is my update after the announcement.

Announcement clearly indicates the the seller is Piramal Glass pvt ( referred as  "seller" in the announcement)  limited who owns 56'% Piramal Glass Ceylon plc ( refers as the "company" in the announcement).


It clearly says the deal is made for the enterprise value of the "Company" aka Piramal Glass Ceylon PLC. Thus value of PLC = 5166000000 INR

Value of PLC =  5,166,000,000*2.5 = 12,915,000,000 LKR (  12 billion +)

No of shares total in PLC= 950086080


Considered value of GLASS a share =  12,915,000,000 /950,086,080  =  14/- LKR

Thus valuation of GLASS comes to 14/-  a share before the final adjustment as per the debt component changes of the company from the valuation date till transaction date.  ( to be announced) 

Companies will not take large debt when there is a deal on the cards but small working capital requirements will be there which the price above to be adjusted (  +/- 5% as per my estimate)

and also, since given the nature of the transaction i expect a mandatory offer at the same price.

If you buy today 40%-50% gain within few days !

Master D
What about debt 3.2billion
If they deduct for debt then only around Rs 10.40 coming  Question

agreed on the debt part.
But only the financial statements of the December quarter will tell the correct picture of the debt levels.
Given that they had higher sales and lower interest cost could lead to decreased debt levels.

value would be much higher than 10.40

Thanks

994PIRAMAL GLASS CEYLON PLC (GLAS.N0000) - Page 50 Empty Re: PIRAMAL GLASS CEYLON PLC (GLAS.N0000) Sat Dec 19, 2020 3:17 pm

DamithAsian


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Mandatory offer cannot be below last traded day market price no. Then risk is low.

995PIRAMAL GLASS CEYLON PLC (GLAS.N0000) - Page 50 Empty Re: PIRAMAL GLASS CEYLON PLC (GLAS.N0000) Sat Dec 19, 2020 4:45 pm

Eranga87


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Piramal's first discloser clearly shows that PC calculated based on enterprise value with considering debt and WC. first should calculate EV and divided by outstanding no. of shares. seem to difficult to calculate EV due to unclear transaction date.

i calculated EV assuming the last trade price 8.70, EV of per share is more than Rs.13. considering EV, GLAS is worth more than Rs.13.


equity  =8,265,748,200
debt    =3,227,815,000
cash    = (174,750,000)
wc      = 1,697,794,000

EV       =13,016,607,200

EV per share Rs.13.68. it should equal to the acquisition of GLAS.



Last edited by Eranga87 on Sat Dec 19, 2020 4:54 pm; edited 1 time in total

Chithi, sec, invest thinker, C.THARANGA, Sachira90, CSEdeSILVA and Bakkabwoi like this post

996PIRAMAL GLASS CEYLON PLC (GLAS.N0000) - Page 50 Empty Re: PIRAMAL GLASS CEYLON PLC (GLAS.N0000) Sat Dec 19, 2020 4:47 pm

fireshelter

fireshelter
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
game over

-------

https://www.srilankachronicle.com/viewtopic.php?t=59460

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