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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020

OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020

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Who will win presidential election

OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 - Page 9 Vote_lcap61%OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 - Page 9 Vote_rcap 61% [ 58 ]
OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 - Page 9 Vote_lcap25%OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 - Page 9 Vote_rcap 25% [ 24 ]
OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 - Page 9 Vote_lcap3%OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 - Page 9 Vote_rcap 3% [ 3 ]
OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 - Page 9 Vote_lcap9%OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 - Page 9 Vote_rcap 9% [ 9 ]
OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 - Page 9 Vote_lcap1%OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 - Page 9 Vote_rcap 1% [ 1 ]
Total Votes : 95

Poll closed

Go down  Message [Page 9 of 16]

Arrowrisk


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

This time it is going to be a hard fight between GR & SP and T & M will decide who will be the president. By looking at the crowd gathering at the political rally we can’t decide who will win.


Now a days younger generation voters are more educated and they will evaluate the candidate prior to cast their votes

samaritan


Moderator
Moderator
T & M votes are split. Estate sector majority is for GR.
'God Father' should analyse the last LG/PS election outcome in the first place.

SP wants to be a white swan surrounded by black swans whose dossiers are highly questionable.

163OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 - Page 9 Empty Re: OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 Sat Oct 26, 2019 12:37 am

God Father


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Predicting the 2019 Sri Lankan Presidential Election
The term bellewether referred to the ancient English practice of placing a metallic bell around the neck of a castrated ram (known as a wether) that led a flock of sheep. A shepherd could identify the flock movements by the tinkling of the bell. Even when the flock out of sight.
In modern usage, the term bellwether refers to an entity or individual that indicates trends in a larger system or collective.
For example, whichever candidate won the state of Ohio has won the presidency in all but two of 58 US Presidential Elections. Hence, states like Ohio, Florida (also two misses), Nevada, Missouri, New Mexico, and Tennessee (all with three misses) are known as “Bellwether states”.


OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 - Page 9 1*KaceZ69RE1dNi1YTipBMgw
US Presidential Election Bellwether States (Source: https://www.prb.org/electiondemographics/)
I was curious if Sri Lanka’s Presidential Election had any Bellwether trends. For example, were there any polling divisions which always backed the winning candidate?
[size=34]Perfect Bellwethers[/size]
Sri Lanka did indeed have eight bellwether polling divisions: Moratuwa and Ratmalana (Colombo Electoral District), Ja-Ela and Katana (Gampaha Electoral District), Mawathagama (Kurunegala Electoral District), Medirigiriya, Minneriya and Polonnaruwa (Polonnaruwa Electoral District). Whichever candidate won these polling divisions, went on to win the presidency.
For example, these are the results for Moratuwa.
OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 - Page 9 1*p52QDxsZ23eRq6vpnZx5CA Results: Moratuwa Polling Divisios
I could see no discernible pattern in the distribution of bellwether polling divisions across the country:
OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 - Page 9 1*PrkfkPSgRXqpNtR6eJ5plw
Number of times each polling divisions backed the winning presidential candidate
[size=34]Percentage Bellwethers[/size]
We defined a perfect bellwether as a polling division which was always won by the winning candidate.What about the percentage of votes? Are there bellwethers that also match the winning percentage?
For each of the 160 polling divisions in Sri Lanka, I looked at the absolute error between the percentage of votes a winning candidate won island-wide, and the percentage of votes that winning candidate won in the polling division.
The polling division with the lowest error was Moratuwa. The percentage of votes a winning candidate received island-wide differed by an average of 1.2% in Moratuwa.
OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 - Page 9 1*3m_f5znhM6Qp7PXHBPsKXA
Results: Moratuwa Polling Division
Interestingly, the polling division with the second-lowest error (1.6%), Yatinuwara, in the Kandy Electoral District, is not a Perfect Bellwether, backing the losing candidate in 1988. However, its percentages have matched the island-wide result almost precisely in the last two presidential elections.

OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 - Page 9 1*ujue1izZP--mBsaCI3PnZw
Results: Yatinuwara Polling Division
The top percentage bellwethers are as follows:
OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 - Page 9 1*FfiOTt616F_vosfQLrZf-g
Top super bellwethers, with average absolute difference from islandwide winner’s vote percentage
[size=34]Bellwether Electoral Districts[/size]
We defined and analyzed “bellwether-ness” at a polling division level. What about at the electoral district level? Have any of the 22 electoral district consistently managed to pick the winner?
Observent readers would have noticed that all three polling divisions in the Polonnaruwa electoral district were bellwethers. Hence, the Polonnaruwa electoral district as a whole is itself a bellwether.
No other electoral district has backed the winner in all seven presidential elections, though Colombo, Gampaha, Kurunegala, Puttalam, Kandy, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Monaragala and Hambantota have backed six.
OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 - Page 9 1*fUHKItpKwHROw3RffrRciw
Bellwether Electoral Districts
Interestingly, the best percentage bellwether electoral district (i.e. that which matches the winning presidential candidate’s islandwide percentage vote best) is not Polonnaruwa, but Puttalam. In fact, Polonnaruwa is only ninth best.
OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 - Page 9 1*e9R5Y83FAqtrCurbeeAp6w
Percentage Bellwether Electoral Districts, with average absolute difference from islandwide winner’s vote percentage.
[size=34]Bellwether Fallacies[/size]

“Perfect Bellwethers will always be Perfect Bellwethers.”

Suppose you are watching the results as they come in, after the November 16th election. Let’s suppose you notice that candidate Sajith Premadasa (say) wins the Moratuwa polling division.
Can you conclude that the UNP candidate has won the election?
You cannot. The “perfectness” of a bellwether polling division is how well it matches the results of the country as a whole. Bellwether polling divisions support political parties in the same proportions that the country as a whole supports these parties. This support can change, and the polling division could diverge from the country.
In the very first presidential election (1982), the UNP candidate J. R. Jayawardena won 137 out of 160 polling divisions. Hence, after this first election, 137 polling divisions were (trivially) “perfect’ bellwethers. Given the UNPs big victory, many electorates that might have voted for its opponents, ended-up voting for the UNP. Hence, the high number of bellwether polling divisions. Also, with a single election, we have only one sample. Thus, the statistical significance of our bellwether statistic is low.
In subsequent elections, the Bellwether count drops, while the significance of the metric increases:

OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 - Page 9 1*CFiZ1xeg58Czeu0DxdAzZw
The number of perfect bellwether polling divisions, after each election
On the eve of the 2015 election, there were 44 perfect bellwether polling divisions. Avissawella was one such polling divisions that had backed the winner in all six presidential elections.
Suppose you were watching the results as they come in, after the 2015 election. Let’s suppose you noticed that candidate Mahinda Rajapaksa won the Avissawella polling division.
Could you conclude that the UPFA candidate had won the election? Not quite.
OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 - Page 9 1*3wymm1VSRZjENPCUodLZ5w
Results: Avissawella Polling Division
In 2015, Avissawella backed the losing candidate, lost its bellwether status, and Maitripala Sirisena ended-up winning the election.

“Candidates should try to win all the Perfect Bellwethers.”

Bellwethers are bellwethers because they correlate strongly with the voting behaviour of the country as a whole. However, there is no causal relationship between the result of the bellwether and that of the country.
Thus, trying to win a bellwether (for example, by campaigning more in such polling divisions), would not lead to more votes in the country as a whole. The candidate might win the bellwether, and lose the country, leading to the polling division losing its bellwether status (as Avissawella did).
On the other hand, bellwethers might be good places to learn about voter preferences and needs. They could act as “samples” for the country as a whole. But after such insights are gained, they must be applied to the whole country. Not just to the bellwether.

“Polonnaruwa is special.”

As we learnt, not only is the Polonnaruwa electoral district a bellwether, so are all three of its polling divisions. So is there something special about the ancient, former-capital of Sri Lanka? When it comes to presidential elections?
Probably not. And here’s why. We can divide our “history of presidential elections” into three groups:

  • 1982 and 1988: The Green Era. In this Era, much of the Sinhala majority heartland supported the UNP. Including Polonnaruwa. So it’s not surprising that Polonnaruwa voted for the UNP.
  • 1994, 1999, 2005, 2010: The Blue Era. Following Chandrika Kumaratunga’s 1994 victories in both general and presidential elections, the heartland turned Blue. Again, it’s not surprising that Polonnaruwa voted for the Blue Party.
  • 2015: The Polonnaruwa Era. In 2015, much of the Sinhala heartland remained Blue, voting for Mahinda Rajapaksa. One exception was Polonnaruwa, which supported their very own Maitripala Sirisena, who went on to win the election.

Hence, it is not surprising that Polonnaruwa supported the winning candidate in every election.
[size=34]So who is going to win?[/size]
As usual, I’m going to utter my favourite phrase: “I don’t know”.
I also don’t know what the voters in our current perfect bellwethers (i.e. Moratuwa, Ratmalana, Ja-Ela, Katana, Mawathagama, Medirigiriya, Minneriya and Polonnaruwa) are thinking. But maybe you do.
If you go to Ratmalana, talk to a bunch of Ratmalaneans and find out that they are all supporting candidate X, you could make one of three conclusions:

164OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 - Page 9 Empty GOTA manifest - VAT 8% Good sign for AEL Sun Oct 27, 2019 3:46 am

rukshan1234


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
VAT is going to reduce to 8%  good opportunity for construction  sector,,

CITIZEN


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@rukshan1234 wrote:VAT is going to reduce to 8%  good opportunity for construction  sector,,
Don't believe politicians promises in election period. By reducing and giving free how can run a government with a jumbo cabinet? with many own family members waiting for ministry. don't canvass by put a company name.

soileconomy

soileconomy
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@rukshan1234 wrote:VAT is going to reduce to 8%  good opportunity for construction  sector,,
It is for manufacturing sector only.
Companies related to  manufacturing sector will be highly befitted.

soileconomy

soileconomy
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Poll needs to be more active than this.only 73 voters have caste their votes upto now(-27-10-2019).
We have more than thousand registered members in this forum

NANDANA2012


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
This is a straight forward and clear promise, they cant avoid it. They may increase it later, but have to reduce first. 

Since private sector is the heart of economy, it is good they promise VAT and income tax (Personnel) reductions. Then private sector will be more active and ultimately will bring more taxes than lost, when growth rates are higher. THAT IS SOMETHING MANGALA CANT UNDERSTAND.

169OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 - Page 9 Empty Re: OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 Sun Oct 27, 2019 10:03 am

NANDANA2012


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Also it is good that GOTA is not making crazy promises like GOVT sector salary increases, which made 2015 UNP govt bankrupt and never recovered. If Private sector Turnover is increased by 100%, lost VAT can be recovered while if Profit is increased ( have to ) Income tax will be increased also. So increasing the economic activity through private sector is the only answer. So GOTA seem to know it, probbaly seen how US operates...

soileconomy

soileconomy
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
manufacturing sector has ruined like many other sectors due to the bad conduct of economy.
Sri lankan companies are trend to import goods (inferior quality)which can be manufactured (with height quality)here due to cost of production and higher government taxes.
Foe Ex lanka Walltile import tiles and sell them at their sales outlets ,since importation is more profitable than producing here.
When it come to personal income even medical reimbursements are taxed , medical fees ,wht tax

171OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 - Page 9 Empty NEWS IN WEB Sun Oct 27, 2019 1:59 pm

CITIZEN

CITIZEN
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Two of the country’s most prominent political figures are expected to take to the presidential election political stage in a decisive manner over the next two weeks, it is reported.
These two political leaders who are currently overseas and are said to be monitoring the country’s presidential operations and they are said to be obtaining analysis reports and information through trusted persons.
They are also said to be guiding their friends on who they should support and these two prominent figures are expected to join the presidential operations actively during the final two weeks leading up to the polls.

Thushara Ayya

Thushara Ayya
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Sinhala Translate...
රටේ ප්‍රමුඛ පෙළේ දේශපාලන චරිත දෙකක් ඉදිරි සති දෙක තුළ තීරණාත්මක ආකාරයකින් ජනාධිපතිවරණ දේශපාලන වේදිකාවට පැමිණෙනු ඇතැයි අපේක්ෂා කෙරේ.
මේ වන විට විදේශගතව සිටින මෙම දේශපාලන නායකයින් දෙදෙනා රටේ ජනාධිපති මෙහෙයුම් අධීක්‍ෂණය කරන බව කියනු ලබන අතර ඔවුන් විශ්වාසදායක පුද්ගලයන් හරහා විශ්ලේෂණ වාර්තා සහ තොරතුරු ලබා ගන්නා බව කියනු ලැබේ.
ඔවුන් සහයෝගය දැක්විය යුත්තේ කාටද යන්න සහ මෙම කැපී පෙනෙන චරිත දෙක පිළිබඳව ඔවුන්ගේ මිතුරන්ට මඟ පෙන්වන බව ද කියනු ලැබේ

173OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 - Page 9 Empty Re: OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 Sun Oct 27, 2019 10:20 pm

Gajaya


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
One for sure is CBK but who is the other one?

174OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 - Page 9 Empty Re: OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 Sun Oct 27, 2019 10:37 pm

kumarweerarathne

kumarweerarathne
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
CBK has been expired 😂 ...and no voice dear.

175OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 - Page 9 Empty PRESIDENT WANT TO BE MP Mon Oct 28, 2019 2:33 am

CITIZEN

CITIZEN
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Top post in the country E President. As a gentlemen style our former president JRJ, DBW and CBK after retirement they do politics but not came to parliament as a MP

Eugine Fernando


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Gajaya wrote:One for sure is CBK but who is the other one?
Arjuna Ranathunga

177OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 - Page 9 Empty Positive News Mon Oct 28, 2019 8:46 am

Promoney


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
13 market days till election

CITIZEN

CITIZEN
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@Eugine Fernando wrote:
@Gajaya wrote:One for sure is CBK but who is the other one?
Arjuna Ranathunga
CBK and ARJUNA now in SriLanka. I too thinking who they are

179OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 - Page 9 Empty Re: OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 Mon Oct 28, 2019 12:36 pm

samaritan


Moderator
Moderator
Sajith can't even count on CBK's vote b'cos she may arrive at the polling booth after the voting time is over.OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 - Page 9 Icon_lol


_________________




The biggest risk in life is not taking any risk at all.

180OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 - Page 9 Empty Re: OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 Mon Oct 28, 2019 12:56 pm

Arrowrisk

Arrowrisk
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
But he current presidnet is a hero.... lol!

soileconomy

soileconomy
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@samaritan wrote:Sajith can't even count on CBK's vote b'cos she may arrive at the polling booth after the voting time is over.OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 - Page 9 Icon_lol
Sajith ta Thiyena chanda tikath nethi wena wadak. Very Happy

roshan1039


Moderator
Moderator
@Arrowrisk wrote:

This time it is going to be a hard fight between GR & SP and T & M will decide who will be the president. By looking at the crowd gathering at the political rally we can’t decide who will win.


Now a days younger generation voters are more educated and they will evaluate the candidate prior to cast their votes
this analysis is complteley biased and baseless

183OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 - Page 9 Empty postal votes today Thu Oct 31, 2019 1:55 pm

soileconomy

soileconomy
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Today is the day.today's results will be a good  guidance and indication  for the final results

soileconomy

soileconomy
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@soileconomy wrote:Today is the day.today's results will be a good  guidance and indication  for the final results
Good response for the country.Over 60% goes to....

185OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 - Page 9 Empty Re: OPINION POLL: Presidential Elections 2020 Sun Nov 03, 2019 10:49 pm

Promoney


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Doesn't matter who comes to power. If its Gota it will be a big spike for a month.. If its Sajith, it will be a short dip. But, political stability is established, and all developments including port city will materialise.. markets will fly.. all the Rajapakse big boys will have to buy or they will miss out when foreigners start taking over..

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