ROYAL CERAMICS PLC (RCL.N0000)

Teller wrote:I am telling your guys, until we defense the rupee, (i mean stopping the depreciation and start appreciation), no future CSE

Yeah. it is almost started 

Hi Kavindu 
Today significant tax cuts approved & to be presented in parliament. Still
I see tremendous negativity. No govt can get all decisions right. But GR & MR really making a courageous effort to get economy & CSE moving. I recall Eran saying we must be happy with a “solid” 2% growth rate. Even in this forum you see Trading Economics absurd projection now the header. CSE cheapest market in SAsia. Earnings will grow with tax cuts, sales pick up & rate drops - making PE even better. Await your take.

PE can be manipulated easily. Think about the cash flow. There are 35+ additional ratios to consider in terms of cash flow and strategical ratios. 100% guaranteed , no appreciation of share prices in 2020. What ever you hold in profit SELL and EXIT. 90 % of companies are over value here. Especially Price to Cash flow ratio in CSE listed companies one of the lowest in the world. In term of cashflows and dividendend payout with the decline rupee rupee, we can not expect FDI s here

Kipling wrote:Hi Kavindu 
Today significant tax cuts approved & to be presented in parliament. Still
I see tremendous negativity. No govt can get all decisions right. But GR & MR really making a courageous effort to get economy & CSE moving. I recall Eran saying we must be happy with a “solid” 2% growth rate. Even in this forum you see Trading Economics absurd projection now the header. CSE cheapest market in SAsia. Earnings will grow with tax cuts, sales pick up & rate drops - making PE even better. Await your take.

Agree they are super managers. Probably best ever we had. But why they make basic mistakes ? In 2010, they had 2/3 power in the Parliament, didnt need to buy MP's and could have created the best Govt ever... But they were going in the wrong path...too many mistakes.. They dont seem to have proper economic advisors... No Country in the World have developed keeping loss making state enterprises and enlarging Govt sector which is unproductive and a burden on economy.. I appreciate so many relief measures given to businesses.. cos no private sector - no economy... But same time do opposites also.. So ultimately positive momentum is destroyed.. Sri lanka now dont have a unemployment issue.. Infact we have a very good employment rate.. NO PEOPLE TO WORK IN THE CONSTRUCTION, HOTEL SECTORS... Already foreign workers are coming.. then no people to cultivate some lands.. they are just iddling... And Govt plan to offer more GOVT jobs... Totally wrong policy...KILLING THE BUD JUST ABOUT TO RISE.....

Teller wrote:PE can be manipulated easily. Think about the cash flow. There are 35+ additional ratios to consider in terms of cash flow and strategical ratios.  100% guaranteed , no appreciation of share prices in 2020. What ever you hold in profit SELL and EXIT. 90 % of companies are over value here. Especially Price to Cash flow ratio in CSE listed companies  one of the lowest in the world.  In term of cashflows and dividendend payout with the decline rupee rupee, we can not expect FDI s here

I cannot agree that 90% overvalued.. Infact 75% undervalued... But many other issues you mentioned is correct... unless they are corrected market may not move much..though probability is there...GOVT AND CENTRAL  BANK SEEM TO NEED A GOOD ECONOMIC ADVISOR. THEY KEEP DESTROYING ECONOMY EVERY 5 YEARS....THEN TRY TO RECOVER... THEN DESTROY... AGAIN RECOVER.. SO WE ARE AT THE SAME PLACE...ITHIOPIA AHEAD..

Kipling wrote:Hi Kavindu 
Today significant tax cuts approved & to be presented in parliament. Still
I see tremendous negativity. No govt can get all decisions right. But GR & MR really making a courageous effort to get economy & CSE moving. I recall Eran saying we must be happy with a “solid” 2% growth rate. Even in this forum you see Trading Economics absurd projection now the header. CSE cheapest market in SAsia. Earnings will grow with tax cuts, sales pick up & rate drops - making PE even better. Await your take.

Hi Kipling

Yeah. Those tax cuts are a huge loss for the government. That's right. But there is a positive side as u told earnings will grow and there will be a business friendly environment+These tax reliefs will encourage people to start their own business. Which is the way to grow GDP , way to economic growth of a country.

And with the GR's plan to increase the admission rate to universities , there will be huge benefits to the country ( chances to AL passed intelligent students ). It will decrease intelligence flow and with the tax reliefs actually srilanka is getting a good environment for businessmen. I believe this is the time for a Renaissance of srilankan economy.

Yeah CSE is the cheaper for now. But not for much longer

Haha just ignore those headers bruh. Everyone will see.

And sorry for the late. I replied u before but it wasn't posted as someone replied when i was typing and i forgot to select 'save' there 

Thank you dear Kavindu. May you be blessed a million fold for your decency, sincerity & wisdom.

Kipling wrote:Thank you dear Kavindu. May you be blessed a million fold for your decency, sincerity & wisdom.

Welcome Brother 

@nandana,
I care NAVPS,EPS very rarely at the time of investment ratios .. These ratio are misleading especially countries like sri lanka.

Teller wrote:I am telling your guys, until we defense the rupee, (i mean stopping the depreciation and start appreciation), no future CSE

if you think no future CSE until rupee appreciation why are you wasting your time and money. බොරු කියලා අහිංසක මිනිසුන්ගේ ලේ උරා බොන්න එපා.

NANDANA2012 wrote:If RCL to come down to 65/70, market have to come down to 5500?? Is that possible ?  doubt it..

විකුනපු කට්ටිය බලනවා මොනවා හරි කියල පහලට ගන්න, ඕක තමා ඇත්ත තත්වේ

Teller works for his masters. They want pauper economy for SL. Once our motherland weak then the tail wags the dog. That is the goal.

Totally agree with the statement  in its  entirety .one or two groups in this forum act in unison to spread  misinformation  and members of their own group make statements justifying  them . sometime  paid jockeys with big  names(so they think) use multiple accounts  and single handedly  carry the task .we should  realize these harsh realities  and remember they are there in any field . so lets learn and feel  the trade .  learn to recognize a fox theory  when  you see one be it in the form of a  hoaxed financial  statement , unsuspecting broker , artificially created  buy/sell orders or  a member or two in this forum .  but not to forget they too provide us with some good trading opportunities  if your timing  is good

@Teller - dont mislead people if u cant trust EPS/NAVPS u cant trust any figure . EPS is wrong short term but in long term we can check EPS collected minus divident is equal to NAV growth (adjusted revaluation) i always tell this . according to this analysis SAM/NDB figures are some what correct. but RHL like companys give totaly fake picture 2012 around EPS figures.

All big guys even agreed Sri Lankan Market is highly undervalued.. Recently Mobius also said CSE is at a "Sweat spot". So there is no issue with valuations.. Even if Market goes up to 10000, thats valuable... compared to other markets.. But our problem is WE HAVE SOME FUNDAMENTAL ISSUES WHICH ONLY GOVT CAN SOLVE..

1. Dollar  Depreciation - No Foreigner like this
2. Regulations - 2010 incidents not properly investigated
3. Less Liquidity - Big Funds wants this - They want tom exit when they want easily - currently a Big Fund in LOLC is struggling to exit...
4. Low market Capitalisation - Our market size is very small for foreign players to enter - many times experts have asked to list at least 10% of large Govt entities (This is not privatisation)
5. High Govt spending for Salaries etc - Experts know this creates inflation and currency depreciation
6. Loss making SOE's - These losses have to be covered by taxes which effect businesses
7. High loans to GDP rate - This is also creating dollar pressure and inflation..

So, till these are addressed, market may not move much though potential is there... Only temporary gains...Else somebody have to pump... and it never remains there when basics are not right..

So its time we all make a noice to make GOVT to make correct decisions..


Bureucracy

NANDANA2012 wrote:All big guys even agreed Sri Lankan Market is highly undervalued.. Recently Mobius also said CSE is at a "Sweat spot". So there is no issue with valuations.. Even if Market goes up to 10000, thats valuable... compared to other markets.. But our problem is WE HAVE SOME FUNDAMENTAL ISSUES WHICH ONLY GOVT CAN SOLVE..

1. Dollar  Depreciation - No Foreigner like this
2. Regulations - 2010 incidents not properly investigated
3. Less Liquidity - Big Funds wants this - They want tom exit when they want easily - currently a Big Fund in LOLC is struggling to exit...
4. Low market Capitalisation - Our market size is very small for foreign players to enter - many times experts have asked to list at least 10% of large Govt entities (This is not privatisation)
5. High Govt spending for Salaries etc - Experts know this creates inflation and currency depreciation
6. Loss making SOE's - These losses have to be covered by taxes which effect businesses
7. High loans to GDP rate - This is also creating dollar pressure and inflation..

So, till these are addressed, market may not move much though potential is there... Only temporary gains...Else somebody have to pump... and it never remains there when basics are not right..

So its time we all make a noice to make GOVT to make correct decisions..


Bureucracy

Yeah now now it's time for bold decisions. And we can hope such things from the current gov.
Big things are on the way.

And the case of 1 lak jobs , there must be a big plan of GR. i don't think they just gave it to make happy those poor people and get votes. There must be something else. GR have a good vision.

Fundementally this market never go up in 2020 except artificially pump and dump. I strongly advise to exit 90% of listed shares are over value at these levels. New comers and retailers be careful on margin. There is a trend to increase margin interest.

HI BRO WHAT IS THE BALANCE  10%

@sajeewa - hez balance 10% change time to time.

Teller wrote:Fundementally this market never go up in 2020 except artificially pump and dump. I strongly advise to exit 90% of listed shares are over value at these levels. New comers and retailers be careful on margin. There is a trend to increase margin interest.

Puw. seems 3% set eke porak.

tell us facts, otherwise don't give such type of  statement please.

i'm RCL fan    and to be honest with you guys... for the following reason i thinks CSE most of shares over valued... if i consider value investing...not Short-term trading...
b'cos i'm very less skills and there is no any inside contacts to do "Short-term trading"...(if you have these two, then best is "Short-term trading")

1) first reason is currency depreciation, we have to make profit with include "currency depreciation rate"
2) inflation (i don t want to talk again sri lanka inflation rate)
3) most of shares EPS is 8% to 12% rate... if you reduced inflation , currency depreciation then you can imagine how about your profit...
(I hope @teller also mention this 90%...)

Next then why RCL is going up again...

I hope Its about "L B FINANCE PLC"
in RCL, if i'm not mistaken most profit come from LB... so that's why this is going up...

I hope @Teller also indirectly mention this early days... 

teller wrote:Teller"@teller your thoughts please",
In case if LFIN touch 150 levels, RCL will have its own way to upward. You should understand what im tellling....hahaha.
I will not tell you every thing.

I hope without just telling anything defend your argument technically that's good, then we all can gain maximum output in this forum...

ColomboCSE wrote:i'm RCL fan    and to be honest with you guys... for the following reason i thinks CSE most of shares over valued... if i consider value investing...not Short-term trading...
b'cos i'm very less skills and there is no any inside contacts to do "Short-term trading"...(if you have these two, then best is "Short-term trading")

1) first reason is currency depreciation, we have to make profit with include "currency depreciation rate"
2) inflation (i don t want to talk again sri lanka inflation rate)
3) most of shares EPS is 8% to 12% rate... if you reduced inflation , currency depreciation then you can imagine how about your profit...
(I hope @teller also mention this 90%...)

Next then why RCL is going up again...

I hope Its about "L B FINANCE PLC"
in RCL, if i'm not mistaken most profit come from LB... so that's why this is going up...

I hope @Teller also indirectly mention this early days... 

teller wrote:Teller"@teller your thoughts please",
In case if LFIN touch 150 levels, RCL will have its own way to upward. You should understand what im tellling....hahaha.
I will not tell you every thing.

I hope without just telling anything defend your argument technically that's good, then we all can gain maximum output in this forum...

Point 1 - Only Applicable to Foreigners or who earning in Foreign Exchange

Point 2 - Yes, Inflation will be an issue - But Govt will have to control it, else many issues.

Point 3 - A share value is calculated by Market price / EPS, If this value is less share is valuable, usually upto 10 times its undervalued. RCL EPS is about 3.5. And Net assets above 200, So both ways valuable than 200. 

Tile Sector shares started running yesterday most probably expecting good results for the quarter. LFIN making Good profits even during this hard period is amazing, and ofcourse is a further plus point for RCL.

@NANDANA2012 wrote:Point 1 - Only Applicable to Foreigners or who earning in Foreign Exchange

Nandana how many items we are importing. 
our trade balance.  
when we import we can not paid from LKR...most of CSE companies will impact currency depreciation rate

@NANDANA2012 wrote:Point 2 - Yes, Inflation will be an issue - But Govt will have to control it, else many issues.

if gov is controlling... just compare yearly price change... 2010 to 2019 then you will understand they only used basic need... most of key items removed from Inflation calc.
just compare how much your living cost increased 2010 to 2019...
(i did not mean your lifestyle change) 

@NANDANA2012 wrote:Point 3 - A share value is calculated by Market price / EPS, If this value is less share is valuable, usually upto 10 times its undervalued. RCL EPS is about 3.5. And Net assets above 200, So both ways valuable than 200. 

this is good point... how many companies you can see good EPS growth last 10 years?

ColomboCSE wrote:i'm RCL fan    and to be honest with you guys... for the following reason i thinks CSE most of shares over valued... if i consider value investing...not Short-term trading...
b'cos i'm very less skills and there is no any inside contacts to do "Short-term trading"...(if you have these two, then best is "Short-term trading")

1) first reason is currency depreciation, we have to make profit with include "currency depreciation rate"
2) inflation (i don t want to talk again sri lanka inflation rate)
3) most of shares EPS is 8% to 12% rate... if you reduced inflation , currency depreciation then you can imagine how about your profit...
(I hope @teller also mention this 90%...)

Next then why RCL is going up again...

I hope Its about "L B FINANCE PLC"
in RCL, if i'm not mistaken most profit come from LB... so that's why this is going up...

I hope @Teller also indirectly mention this early days... 

teller wrote:Teller"@teller your thoughts please",
In case if LFIN touch 150 levels, RCL will have its own way to upward. You should understand what im tellling....hahaha.
I will not tell you every thing.

I hope without just telling anything defend your argument technically that's good, then we all can gain maximum output in this forum...

Those points are right. But all of them are being corrected (which was destroyed for years)

rupee depreciated by 30% for that 5 years period. Inflation rate also will be corrected with the tax cuts there are more people interested in starting their own business.

Yeah. your point is right only if UNP won this election. Now path changed. Sequence of those 2 charts are almost changed so don't calculate with the last acceleration.

Good time is coming for RCL

How teller strongly told buy LFIN @ 130, and same time put his target 156 , (refer one of my old posts), these are hidden calcs. Only advanced and experience tech and fund...guy can see those 100% predictions. I dont care others to follow me or not. But thats the reason im 99% profit not only cse but also world.

@colombocse, you have some brain to understand what i say. Because i dont tell every thing now. Only intelligence guys will understand who i am

""""""Haaaa"",
@colombo cse , you read my mind..i like such guys
"I hope @Teller also indirectly mention this early days... "

Teller wrote:How teller strongly told buy LFIN @ 130, and same time put his target 156 , (refer one of my old posts), these are hidden calcs. Only advanced and experience tech and fund...guy can see those 100% predictions. I dont care others to follow me or not. But thats the reason im 99% profit not only cse but also world.

@colombocse, you have some brain to understand what i say.  Because i dont tell every thing now. Only intelligence guys will understand who i am

You are a good predictor. No doubt on that. But i m not satisfied with ur opinion for CSE. Even u told to exit from CSE.

When we see some new hope after a shitty 5 years. Now you are telling no future for CSE. And always telling about the rates which was destroyed by last gov. Don't u think this gov will correct them? What happened after 2005 to CSE.


MR and GR ended the war which was our motherland suffered for 30 years. and which was more than 3 presidents and leaders were scared about and postponed. Everyone told its not possible to end that war. Even with the international pressures they won it. MR had power and knowledge. GR made right decisions. Compared to 2009 now we are having a little challenge. 
And i believe they will win over it.

Good Luck for our motherland.

Dont mix mother land and investment. I also believe GR may do some thing . Even i have to respect him due to he was elected by majority voters. But understand ,as an analyser , i use fundementals,technicals and the global trend. Based on those i have done so many complicated calcs which are the basis of my predictions. So i always monitor actual vs forcasts , then i decide buy,sell or hold. Fortunately or unfortunately 90% of my results force me to SELL. Your guys no need to angry with me but i stick on those

Teller wrote:Dont mix mother land and investment. I also believe GR may do some thing . Even i have to respect him due to he was elected by majority voters. But understand ,as an analyser , i use fundementals,technicals and the global trend. Based on  those i have done so many complicated calcs which are the basis of my predictions. So i always monitor actual vs forcasts , then i decide buy,sell or hold. Fortunately or unfortunately 90% of my results force me to SELL. Your guys no need to angry with me but i stick on those

Haha it's okay no offence. This is a democratic country (idk about dubai). Everyone is free to do whatever with their analysis + opinion. Okay then What's your target for ASI? and what about this uptrend? 

Technical charts will gone mad. 2015 to 2020 period and 2020 to 2025 will be totally different. 

Lets see.