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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » CORPORATE CHRONICLE™ » POSITIVE ECONOMIC & POLITICAL STABILITY

POSITIVE ECONOMIC & POLITICAL STABILITY

+3
Kipling
ThilinaM
samaritan
7 posters

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1POSITIVE ECONOMIC & POLITICAL STABILITY Empty POSITIVE ECONOMIC & POLITICAL STABILITY Thu Dec 12, 2019 11:03 am

samaritan


Moderator
Moderator
Two major prerequisites for any Stock market to do well is Economic & Political stability in the country. Unforeseeable external factors which can influence the market is beyond control.
The present govt is making good progress towards achieving Economic & political stability and also with the assurance given by MS to support the govt at the forthcoming general election will ensure two thirds majority in the new parliament for a stronger govt in order to implement President GR's policies.
In this backdrop and a realistic expectation at the election the Market is expected to perform well in the future. In my opinion ASI should surpass 7000 in the coming months.


_________________




The biggest risk in life is not taking any risk at all.

ThilinaM

ThilinaM
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
SL market is ranging from 15bn usd to 18bn usd close range. its small money comapred to other countrys. 1 big player can easyly maniulate the market. so those political predictions are not sure

samaritan


Moderator
Moderator
@ThilinaM wrote:SL market is ranging from 15bn usd to 18bn usd close range. its small money comapred to other countrys. 1 big player can easyly maniulate the market. so those political predictions are not sure
If so, all these discussions are useless isn't it???


_________________




The biggest risk in life is not taking any risk at all.

Kipling


Expert
Expert
Samaritan so great to see you back. I saw some numbers from Cal. Amazing. I have no doubt GR is the change agent. Incomparable with past SL leaders. More like Park, LKY & Ataturk. With reforms they expect 11000. Keen to your know ur take.

Teller

Teller
Moderator
Moderator
CSE movement is unpredictable . Most of the companies 70% plus owner ship belong to largest 20 hoders. The funny thing those largest 20 holders also friends ,relations and subsidiaries. So this a grate manipulation place. Retailers must do the correct entry and exit


_________________




Teller said is said..

ThilinaM

ThilinaM
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Teller - I can give 100% win strategy for retailers  Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy - its enter in crash do not exit

ThilinaM

ThilinaM
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@teller - most of SL retailers posting in FB what are the good shares to buy. do u think they will correctly enter and exit. only strategy is do not exit

ThilinaM

ThilinaM
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Teller - do you have any ownership structure document with u for whole CSE ? i tried to build one but quit due to no time

KavinduTM

KavinduTM
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@ThilinaM Where is the crash?
but if we don't exit at the right time maybe we won't be able to collect the profit..isn't it?

samaritan


Moderator
Moderator
@Kipling wrote:Samaritan so great to see you back. I saw some numbers from Cal. Amazing. I have no doubt GR is the change agent. Incomparable with past SL leaders. More like Park, LKY & Ataturk. With reforms they expect 11000. Keen to your know ur take.
Agree Kipling,CSE is just coming out of a torture chamber after four and half years to see the day light. We can witness a surge in the indices following the general election, the outcome of which will further strengthen the hands of GR to implement his policies which will fast track development & FDIs leading the nation to prosperity. President had already set a good example for other politicians to follow and i am in no doubt with a balanced foreign policy sky is the limit for Sri Lanka.


_________________




The biggest risk in life is not taking any risk at all.

Kipling


Expert
Expert
Hi Samaritan. Agree with your last post. Softlogic & CAL were expecting post election run up to 6500 & 7000 respectively. Did not happen. Why? Also I read on forum MT & LT investors are getting frustrated. Is this true? Appreciate your feedback.

NANDANA2012


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
If our market is overvalued at 6200, all other markets are double overvalued.. So no share to buy any where in the world...!!

Kipling


Expert
Expert
Agree Nandana. Perhaps you & Samaritan can shed some light on my last post.

NANDANA2012


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@Kipling wrote:Hi Samaritan. Agree with your last post. Softlogic & CAL were expecting post election run up to 6500 & 7000 respectively. Did not happen. Why? Also I read on forum MT & LT investors are getting frustrated. Is this true? Appreciate your feedback.

Currently market is running with retailers money. No big Fund seems to have started investing. Infact some funds are exiting (Usual in  December). Its common Funds to make new investments in New year, around mid / late January.. So we have to wait few more weeks....Also, though economic stimulus given, it takes time - maybe another 2 quarters for results to appear. Further people concerned abt General election (Though we know its a cakewalk for GOTA, foreigners dont know that) and political stability. So there are few minuses while many positives are around...

Kipling


Expert
Expert
Thank you Nandana. Appreciate your excellent reply. If I may a few follow up questions.
1. Why hasn’t ETF & EPF entered in a big way. I recall ANC saying that they will. Is it pending new CBSL Gov appointment. 
2. CAL gave 11000 which is a PE of 19 on current earnings. Much more sane than 2011 bull run PE of 29. Further earnings improvements  with tax cuts & resuting top & bottom line positive change not built in. So is CAL estimate realistic. 
3.If Gota wins big (hopefully 2/3 secured) how do you see range of index.

16POSITIVE ECONOMIC & POLITICAL STABILITY Empty Re: POSITIVE ECONOMIC & POLITICAL STABILITY Sun Dec 15, 2019 11:47 pm

NANDANA2012


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@Kipling wrote:Thank you Nandana. Appreciate your excellent reply. If I may a few follow up questions.
1. Why hasn’t ETF & EPF entered in a big way. I recall ANC saying that they will. Is it pending new CBSL Gov appointment. 
2. CAL gave 11000 which is a PE of 19 on current earnings. Much more sane than 2011 bull run PE of 29. Further earnings improvements  with tax cuts & resuting top & bottom line positive change not built in. So is CAL estimate realistic. 
3.If Gota wins big (hopefully 2/3 secured) how do you see range of index.
1. EPF had already invested few Months back, when old Govt was there. They have only very limited % which can invest in shares and guess that is already over.. They dont trade.. buy and keep.. So dont expect much money from EPF soon in the market..
2. ASI 11000 is too much to expect, maybe after after 3 years,  7000 to 8000 is realistic for next year.
3. GOTA win is a matter of time and even 2/3 seem to be not difficult, but 2/3 may also create some risks for democracy.. Anyway people power is online nowadays and GOTA will not make the same mistakes again, I guess. They know whatever power they have, they cant win elections with force in this Internet age...

Kipling


Expert
Expert
Thank you Nandana. Much appreciated.

CITIZEN

CITIZEN
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@NANDANA2012 wrote:
@Kipling wrote:Hi Samaritan. Agree with your last post. Softlogic & CAL were expecting post election run up to 6500 & 7000 respectively. Did not happen. Why? Also I read on forum MT & LT investors are getting frustrated. Is this true? Appreciate your feedback.

Currently market is running with retailers money. No big Fund seems to have started investing. Infact some funds are exiting (Usual in  December). Its common Funds to make new investments in New year, around mid / late January.. So we have to wait few more weeks....Also, though economic stimulus given, it takes time - maybe another 2 quarters for results to appear. Further people concerned abt General election (Though we know its a cakewalk for GOTA, foreigners dont know that) and political stability. So there are few minuses while many positives are around...
correct year end holidays, early next year general election, new govt foreign policy

Kipling


Expert
Expert
Samaritan & Nandana. Note the totally lackluster performance in terms of TO & red. CBSL Gov appointment soon. Some say Nalaka G as he will follow an aggressive pro growth stance. Deeply appreciate your view and/or information.

samaritan


Moderator
Moderator
@Kipling wrote:Samaritan & Nandana. Note the totally lackluster performance in terms of TO & red. CBSL Gov appointment soon. Some say Nalaka G as he will follow an aggressive pro growth stance. Deeply appreciate your view and/or information.
Pl keep in mind that holiday & festive season is on and to be followed by a general election. Foreigners consider the period pending elections as times of uncertainty. But we all know that the results will be in favour of GR. Lacklustre market sentiment is only temporary.


_________________




The biggest risk in life is not taking any risk at all.

Kipling


Expert
Expert
Thank you & sincerely appreciate your response. I hope the new CBSL Gov is pro growth & aggressively cuts rates as Mobius (called for more tax cuts too) requested. He strongly believes these measures & other GR policies will return SL to 8% growth.

Kipling


Expert
Expert
Nandana. Regards EPF. The fund is 2300B & grows annually by 300B. They had 3.3% in equities. That is 76B. They can go up to 6% which is 138B. So new equity investment of 62B possible. 2 questions. 
1) Has EPF invested 62B since new guideline issued by Governor IC
2) I recall a Viyathmaga member responsible for capital markets stating plan to bring EPF & ETF in a big way to equities (given poor returns when 92% in TBs & declining GOSL TB funding requirement). Message was equities will get significantly more than 6%. 
Appreciate your opinion. Thanks.

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