Short Term Targets

Teller wrote:I recommend OSEA, my target is 17.75 short

Yeah i think same. + OSEA will start it's journey to 20 levels.
@Teller What do you think?

Hi Kavindu 
Did you see CAL report.
This states that earnings growth of 30% expected & even if current PE accepted then index should be 7600. If reforms are introduced there is no reason for market to be at 11 & should soon get inline with other EMs & FMs. My views are earnings will accelerate.
Await your view.
Thanks.

Hi Kavindu 
Please note projected earnings growth of 32% is for FY ended March 2020.
March quarter should be even better than December quarter.
So far JKH disappointing given leisure & Finance income drop.
As always await your response.
Thanks

KavinduTM wrote:

liyanaarachchi wrote:

KavinduTM wrote:Yeah @liyanaarachchi. Your point is correct. But watch what happened 2010 - 2015 period and what happened 2015 - 2020 periods. Downtrend started 2015.

EPS,NAV, PE ratios all are satisfying. And this will be a good investment. According to my view, Now it is a good time to enter.

Also technically it shows a good buy around 15.50/=
Also good dividend rate.

We can hope more than 1.25/= dividend this time.

This company has a good future. 17-18/= levels are expected in near future.

Thank you very much. We will able to get a dividend rate more than 8% for 1.25 rupees. 

I got those details by quarterly data reports of that company. Thanks for you advise and I will see. 

This is my first company. My broker recommended this company.

Welcome. Its my pleasure.

Yeah it has a good div policy too. What is your broker company?

My broker is Bartleet.

What about CSD
Thay pay good dividend every year in February
Their profits also healthier than other peers

Kipling wrote:Hi Kavindu 
Did you see CAL report.
This states that earnings growth of 30% expected & even if current PE accepted then index should be 7600. If reforms are introduced there is no reason for market to be at 11 & should soon get inline with other EMs & FMs. My views are earnings will accelerate.
Await your view.
Thanks.

No i didn't see.
Yeah i think same. This quarter results will be much better than december qtr.

Kipling wrote:Hi Kavindu 
Please note projected earnings growth of 32% is for FY ended March 2020.
March quarter should be even better than December quarter.
So far JKH disappointing given leisure & Finance income drop.
As always await your response.
Thanks

Can you send me the link. I can't find it.
Yeah 2020 first quarter will be special.
Did u invest in JKH?

Hi Kipling.
What are your investments?

INDY 500 wrote:What about CSD
Thay pay good dividend every year in February
Their profits also healthier than other peers

Yeah good to collect for div. But there's a doubt about investing in CSD. However 12.50 range is possible.

CAL expects earnings to grow 32% in 2020E implying the market will reach 7600 at the current level of PER
CSE is currently trading at 10.82x TTM earnings. With earnings growth at 32% in 2020E, the implied market PE is 7.74x. We believe this growth could be achieved solely through the current fiscal stimulus and the easing monetary policy environment. If structural reforms take effect, we expect ASPI to hit the levels of 9000.

Kipling wrote:CAL expects earnings to grow 32% in 2020E implying the market will reach 7600 at the current level of PER
CSE is currently trading at 10.82x TTM earnings. With earnings growth at 32% in 2020E, the implied market PE is 7.74x. We believe this growth could be achieved solely through the current fiscal stimulus and the easing monetary policy environment. If structural reforms take effect, we expect ASPI to hit the levels of 9000.

Yeah i also believe ASI will able to pass its "all time high" before 2022.
ASI will pass 7000 levels in 2020.

KavinduTM wrote:

Kipling wrote:CAL expects earnings to grow 32% in 2020E implying the market will reach 7600 at the current level of PER
CSE is currently trading at 10.82x TTM earnings. With earnings growth at 32% in 2020E, the implied market PE is 7.74x. We believe this growth could be achieved solely through the current fiscal stimulus and the easing monetary policy environment. If structural reforms take effect, we expect ASPI to hit the levels of 9000.

Yeah i also believe ASI will able to pass its "all time high" before 2022.
ASI will pass 7000 levels in 2020.

Actually is 2/3 power in essential in parliament? Won't others will help in good decisions?
However 2/3 power is only needed for critical decisions neh? tbh i don't know much about parliament things.

When ever in the history , if 2/3 or 5/6 majority was taken, those time so many human rights, mass media freedom violated. Its your responsibility to elect a strong opposition what ever ruling party we should not care. Remember opposition should supports good Acts those are benifited to country also stand against VS

To pass act like freedom for information no need 2/3. 2/3 is asking for removing the 19 amendments and to do an amendment like 18. it will abolish the independent commissions. we know 19 amendment is not perfect but we need to think we are going backwards or we are going forward. 

we need to have a fiscal discipline act nobody talking about that. otherwise, one government can get 30 years loan and show artificial development and get the vote but the next generation needs to settle the loan.

Teller wrote:When ever in the history , if 2/3 or 5/6 majority was taken, those time so many human rights, mass media freedom violated. Its your responsibility to elect a strong opposition what ever ruling party we should not care. Remember opposition should supports good Acts those are benifited to country also stand against VS

Yeah true.

kasun_gimhana wrote:To pass act like freedom for information no need 2/3. 2/3 is asking for removing the 19 amendments and to do an amendment like 18. it will abolish the independent commissions. we know 19 amendment is not perfect but we need to think we are going backwards or we are going forward. 

we need to have a fiscal discipline act nobody talking about that. otherwise, one government can get 30 years loan and show artificial development and get the vote but the next generation needs to settle the loan.

Yeah people will get mad when they are overpowered.


"we need to have a fiscal discipline act nobody talking about that. otherwise, one government can get 30 years loan and show artificial development and get the vote but the next generation needs to settle the loan."

But good investments which will take some considerable stable profit for the country will be okay isn't it?

@KavinduTM
Fiscal discipline is very difficult to explain in a forum but thinks about like this. If government issue 30 year bonds to finance the recurrent budget of a particular year. Then the loan does not create any asset. People who live now enjoy it but people who still not born have to pay the capital payment of the bond. Is it fair? that is one part of fiscal discipline. 

Another thing is strict to the budget that approves by the parliament for the particular year whoever controls the government. Did you see this? this government give massive tax deduction, then how to finance the expenses already budgeted, can reduce the government employees salary? NO. then get a loan or money printing is what the government does. Is this good for the country? the same thing did the last government giving massive salary increment( rs 10000) to government employees.

none of the above things are good for the country. The most important part is the fiscal discipline maintaining budget deficit  @ acceptable level. General norm is maintaining government debt  @ 60% from GDP. This can be vari country to country.

without these kinds of policy decisions, nobody will invest in Srilanka. because nobody can see a future in this country

In simply, for ALL ECONOMIC ADVISORS...
Sri lankan Government income is 1 rupee, it has expenses 5
rupees. So how to find 4 rupees to cover the GAP. This is 2020 scenario. Really its bad critical situation

kasun_gimhana wrote:@KavinduTM
Fiscal discipline is very difficult to explain in a forum but thinks about like this. If government issue 30 year bonds to finance the recurrent budget of a particular year. Then the loan does not create any asset. People who live now enjoy it but people who still not born have to pay the capital payment of the bond. Is it fair? that is one part of fiscal discipline. 

Another thing is strict to the budget that approves by the parliament for the particular year whoever controls the government. Did you see this? this government give massive tax deduction, then how to finance the expenses already budgeted, can reduce the government employees salary? NO. then get a loan or money printing is what the government does. Is this good for the country? the same thing did the last government giving massive salary increment( rs 10000) to government employees.

none of the above things are good for the country. The most important part is the fiscal discipline maintaining budget deficit  @ acceptable level. General norm is maintaining government debt  @ 60% from GDP. This can be vari country to country.

without these kinds of policy decisions, nobody will invest in Srilanka. because nobody can see a future in this country

@kasun

Yes your point is correct it's not fair.

We had to take loans continuously because of the budget deficit right? Government expenditures are higher than the revenue. So national debt was rising since 1990.



[th]Date[/th][th]Debt[/th][th]Debt (%GDP)[/th][th]Debt Per Capita[/th]

2018	74,008	83.28%	3,415$
2017	68,128	77.38%	3,177$
2016	65,119	79.02%	3,071$
2015	63,220	78.49%	3,015$
2014	57,262	72.22%	2,757$
2013	53,311	71.78%	2,590$
2012	47,596	69.61%	2,330$
2011	46,420	71.11%	2,285$
2010	40,554	71.57%	2,008$
2009	36,221	75.20%	1,804$
2008	33,138	71.10%	1,661$
2007	27,508	74.27%	1,389$
2006	24,848	76.79%	1,263$
2005	22,112	79.17%	1,132$
2004	21,160	89.41%	1,092$
2003	19,326	89.36%	1,006$
2002	19,510	99.55%	1,024$
2001	16,228	87.21%	858$
2000	15,852	81.87%	844$
1999	14,869	80.31%	796$
1998	14,144	76.74%	762$
1997	12,970	72.51%	702$
1996	12,647	78.80%	688$
1995	11,771	80.43%	645$
1994	11,096	80.52%	613$
1993	9,778	81.84%	545$
1992	9,004	80.57%	508$
1991	8,626	83.20%	492$
1990	7,726	81.60%	446$

Year by year we had to take loans coz of budget deficit.

Currently in 2020 our Debt to GDP ratio is 82.99% .

However in Japan , it is 237.54%
Italy                               133.43%     
Singapore                     109.37%
USA                               106.7%
France                            99.20%
Spain                              95.96%
Canada                           88.01%
Sri Lanka                        82.99% (it's us )
Maldives                          61.43%
Finland                            59.88%
Israel                               58.96%
South Africa                    57.81%              
Germany                         56.93%
Malaysia                          56.32%
China                              55.36%
Qatar                               52.74% (World Richest Country)
Iraq                                  50.25%
Thailand                          41.47%
South Korea                    40.54%
Switzerland                     39.49% (Best countries to live)
Sweden                           37.23%(Best countries to live)
Norway                            36.75%(Best countries to live)                 
Nepal                               33.07%
Iran                                  30.04%
New Zealand                    28.07% (Best Country to Visit)
Luxembourg                     21.61% (Word #2 Richest country)


Yes its various to country to country but i have no idea about which exceeded 100%. Which means they owe debt more than GDP. In japan its 230% wth 




"Another thing is strict to the budget that approves by the parliament for the particular year whoever controls the government. Did you see this? this government give massive tax deduction, then how to finance the expenses already budgeted, can reduce the government employees salary? NO. then get a loan or money printing is what the government does. Is this good for the country? the same thing did the last government giving massive salary increment( rs 10000) to government employees"



I agree that taxes are a huge income for gov. And now our revenue is lower than expenditures. That's true but i believe that tax deduction is a good decision made by gov. Yeah there are few problems as u told. But as a developing country comparing to malaysia,singapore,indonesia or india, we had too high tax rates. And gov could increase tax rates more and balance the budget but people will die. Harder time will come for businesses. But with the tax deduction people will encourage more to the business field. Which is good for the country. Yeah they will have to print more. But considering long term, tax deduction will be good for the country.


Yeah Debt to GDP may stay below 60% is better. Now it is 82.99% . What to do? There are 2 ways. Not to take loans or increase GDP growth rate. I believe GDP rate will grow in near future with the decisions of gov.



2020 Will be a turning point.


Yeah we can't expect much without those facts. I believe this gov will take actions for the future of the country.

Kavindu 
100% agree. 
Your analysis stands out for pragmatism & supreme intelligence.
I cannot accept that you are 18.
Thanks

Kipling wrote:Kavindu 
100% agree. 
Your analysis stands out for pragmatism & supreme intelligence.
I cannot accept that you are 18.
Thanks

Yeah. I am amazing that he is 18

@KavinduTM
 you have done a good analysis. Haha, hope you will achieve your 1 billion target.

Hi Kavindu 
It seems that Cabral & Kapila Chandrasena are going to cause major embarrassment for MR as he appointed them both to CBSL & SriLankan respectively.GR cannot be blamed. Will this impact GR ability to gain 150+ to drive his reform program. Await your response.
Thanks

Kipling wrote:Kavindu 
100% agree. 
Your analysis stands out for pragmatism & supreme intelligence.
I cannot accept that you are 18.
Thanks

Hey Kipling. Thank you very much xD.
I could have done this for all the time but i m doing A/L u know. I m doing Maths for A/L. Actually i don't have much free time because of classes + have to study 

liyanaarachchi wrote:

Kipling wrote:Kavindu 
100% agree. 
Your analysis stands out for pragmatism & supreme intelligence.
I cannot accept that you are 18.
Thanks

Yeah. I am amazing that he is 18

Haha 

kasun_gimhana wrote:@KavinduTM
 you have done a good analysis. Haha, hope you will achieve your 1 billion target.

Yeah i did some. Thank you for getting me to that topic. i learned a lot of things 

Oh thanks 

Hi Kavindu 
Please respond to my last post.
Your take is awaited.

Kipling wrote:Hi Kavindu 
Please respond to my last post.
Your take is awaited.

Hi mate.

I don't think that will be a problem. GR will make them right. Actually i guess there are some inside fights with MR too. GR don't like some decisions made by MR. such as aviation appointments and above u mentioned.

Kavindu 
Do you think GR will secure 150+ @ election to be called March2.

Kipling wrote:Kavindu 
Do you think GR will secure 150+ @ election to be called March2.

I don't think. That's hard. he will secure 113+ but 2/3 is harder coz already some group of voters are disappointed saying the tax deduction didn't affected to ordinary people,Vegetable prices and some silly problems like that. And previous gov haven't paid the bills for medicine for 3 months (as i remember) and now they have to pay it. Almost there are no SPC medicines in pharmacies. Most of people need quick gains , so 2/3 will be harder (not impossible) but there's a doubt. And don't you think majority is enough? As above conversations happened, i guess overpower won't be good. Personally i believe GR as i see some special qualities of him. However that power (2/3 of parliament) will lead the country to the heaven or hell. Both is possible. however 2/3 is needed only for critical decisions neh? opposition will help for good decisions i guess. at least 30 more (as they will secure around 120). Tell me your idea about 2/3.