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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » Short Term Targets

Short Term Targets

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61Short Term Targets - Page 4 Empty Re: Short Term Targets Sat Feb 01, 2020 2:59 pm

KavinduTM


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Kipling wrote:CAL expects earnings to grow 32% in 2020E implying the market will reach 7600 at the current level of PER
CSE is currently trading at 10.82x TTM earnings. With earnings growth at 32% in 2020E, the implied market PE is 7.74x. We believe this growth could be achieved solely through the current fiscal stimulus and the easing monetary policy environment. If structural reforms take effect, we expect ASPI to hit the levels of 9000.

Yeah i also believe ASI will able to pass its "all time high" before 2022.
ASI will pass 7000 levels in 2020.

62Short Term Targets - Page 4 Empty Re: Short Term Targets Sat Feb 01, 2020 3:01 pm

KavinduTM


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@KavinduTM wrote:
@Kipling wrote:CAL expects earnings to grow 32% in 2020E implying the market will reach 7600 at the current level of PER
CSE is currently trading at 10.82x TTM earnings. With earnings growth at 32% in 2020E, the implied market PE is 7.74x. We believe this growth could be achieved solely through the current fiscal stimulus and the easing monetary policy environment. If structural reforms take effect, we expect ASPI to hit the levels of 9000.

Yeah i also believe ASI will able to pass its "all time high" before 2022.
ASI will pass 7000 levels in 2020.

Actually is 2/3 power in essential in parliament? Won't others will help in good decisions?
However 2/3 power is only needed for critical decisions neh? tbh i don't know much about parliament things.

63Short Term Targets - Page 4 Empty Re: Short Term Targets Sat Feb 01, 2020 10:47 pm

Teller


Moderator
Moderator
When ever in the history , if 2/3 or 5/6 majority was taken, those time so many human rights, mass media freedom violated. Its your responsibility to elect a strong opposition what ever ruling party we should not care. Remember opposition should supports good Acts those are benifited to country also stand against VS

64Short Term Targets - Page 4 Empty Re: Short Term Targets Sat Feb 01, 2020 11:13 pm

kasun_gimhana


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
To pass act like freedom for information no need 2/3. 2/3 is asking for removing the 19 amendments and to do an amendment like 18. it will abolish the independent commissions. we know 19 amendment is not perfect but we need to think we are going backwards or we are going forward. 

we need to have a fiscal discipline act nobody talking about that. otherwise, one government can get 30 years loan and show artificial development and get the vote but the next generation needs to settle the loan.

65Short Term Targets - Page 4 Empty Re: Short Term Targets Sun Feb 02, 2020 6:55 pm

KavinduTM


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Teller wrote:When ever in the history , if 2/3 or 5/6 majority was taken, those time so many human rights, mass media freedom violated. Its your responsibility to elect a strong opposition what ever ruling party we should not care. Remember opposition should supports good Acts those are benifited to country also stand against VS

Yeah true.

66Short Term Targets - Page 4 Empty Re: Short Term Targets Sun Feb 02, 2020 10:36 pm

KavinduTM

KavinduTM
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@kasun_gimhana wrote:To pass act like freedom for information no need 2/3. 2/3 is asking for removing the 19 amendments and to do an amendment like 18. it will abolish the independent commissions. we know 19 amendment is not perfect but we need to think we are going backwards or we are going forward. 

we need to have a fiscal discipline act nobody talking about that. otherwise, one government can get 30 years loan and show artificial development and get the vote but the next generation needs to settle the loan.

Yeah people will get mad when they are overpowered.


"we need to have a fiscal discipline act nobody talking about that. otherwise, one government can get 30 years loan and show artificial development and get the vote but the next generation needs to settle the loan."

But good investments which will take some considerable stable profit for the country will be okay isn't it?

67Short Term Targets - Page 4 Empty Re: Short Term Targets Sun Feb 02, 2020 11:38 pm

kasun_gimhana

kasun_gimhana
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@KavinduTM
Fiscal discipline is very difficult to explain in a forum but thinks about like this. If government issue 30 year bonds to finance the recurrent budget of a particular year. Then the loan does not create any asset. People who live now enjoy it but people who still not born have to pay the capital payment of the bond. Is it fair? that is one part of fiscal discipline. 

Another thing is strict to the budget that approves by the parliament for the particular year whoever controls the government. Did you see this? this government give massive tax deduction, then how to finance the expenses already budgeted, can reduce the government employees salary? NO. then get a loan or money printing is what the government does. Is this good for the country? the same thing did the last government giving massive salary increment( rs 10000) to government employees.

none of the above things are good for the country. The most important part is the fiscal discipline maintaining budget deficit  @ acceptable level. General norm is maintaining government debt  @ 60% from GDP. This can be vari country to country.

without these kinds of policy decisions, nobody will invest in Srilanka. because nobody can see a future in this country

68Short Term Targets - Page 4 Empty Re: Short Term Targets Mon Feb 03, 2020 12:54 am

Teller

Teller
Moderator
Moderator
In simply, for ALL ECONOMIC ADVISORS...
Sri lankan Government income is 1 rupee, it has expenses 5
rupees. So how to find 4 rupees to cover the GAP. This is 2020 scenario. Really its bad critical situation


_________________




Teller said is said..

69Short Term Targets - Page 4 Empty Re: Short Term Targets Mon Feb 03, 2020 9:18 am

KavinduTM

KavinduTM
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@kasun_gimhana wrote:@KavinduTM
Fiscal discipline is very difficult to explain in a forum but thinks about like this. If government issue 30 year bonds to finance the recurrent budget of a particular year. Then the loan does not create any asset. People who live now enjoy it but people who still not born have to pay the capital payment of the bond. Is it fair? that is one part of fiscal discipline. 

Another thing is strict to the budget that approves by the parliament for the particular year whoever controls the government. Did you see this? this government give massive tax deduction, then how to finance the expenses already budgeted, can reduce the government employees salary? NO. then get a loan or money printing is what the government does. Is this good for the country? the same thing did the last government giving massive salary increment( rs 10000) to government employees.

none of the above things are good for the country. The most important part is the fiscal discipline maintaining budget deficit  @ acceptable level. General norm is maintaining government debt  @ 60% from GDP. This can be vari country to country.

without these kinds of policy decisions, nobody will invest in Srilanka. because nobody can see a future in this country

@kasun

Yes your point is correct it's not fair.

We had to take loans continuously because of the budget deficit right? Government expenditures are higher than the revenue. So national debt was rising since 1990.

Sri Lanka: Evolution of debt


[th]Date[/th][th]Debt[/th][th]Debt (%GDP)[/th][th]Debt Per Capita[/th]
201874,00883.28%3,415$
201768,12877.38%3,177$
201665,11979.02%3,071$
201563,22078.49%3,015$
201457,26272.22%2,757$
201353,31171.78%2,590$
201247,59669.61%2,330$
201146,42071.11%2,285$
201040,55471.57%2,008$
200936,22175.20%1,804$
200833,13871.10%1,661$
200727,50874.27%1,389$
200624,84876.79%1,263$
200522,11279.17%1,132$
200421,16089.41%1,092$
200319,32689.36%1,006$
200219,51099.55%1,024$
200116,22887.21%858$
200015,85281.87%844$
199914,86980.31%796$
199814,14476.74%762$
199712,97072.51%702$
199612,64778.80%688$
199511,77180.43%645$
199411,09680.52%613$
19939,77881.84%545$
19929,00480.57%508$
19918,62683.20%492$
19907,72681.60%446$

Year by year we had to take loans coz of budget deficit.


Currently in 2020 our Debt to GDP ratio is 82.99% .

However in Japan , it is 237.54%
Italy                               133.43%     
Singapore                     109.37%
USA                               106.7%
France                            99.20%
Spain                              95.96%
Canada                           88.01%
Sri Lanka                        82.99% (it's us Surprised)
Maldives                          61.43%
Finland                            59.88%
Israel                               58.96%
South Africa                    57.81%              
Germany                         56.93%
Malaysia                          56.32%
China                              55.36%
Qatar                               52.74% (World Richest Country)
Iraq                                  50.25%
Thailand                          41.47%
South Korea                    40.54%
Switzerland                     39.49% (Best countries to live)
Sweden                           37.23%(Best countries to live)
Norway                            36.75%(Best countries to live)                 
Nepal                               33.07%
Iran                                  30.04%
New Zealand                    28.07% (Best Country to Visit)
Luxembourg                     21.61% (Word #2 Richest country)


Yes its various to country to country but i have no idea about which exceeded 100%. Which means they owe debt more than GDP. In japan its 230% wth  Exclamation




"Another thing is strict to the budget that approves by the parliament for the particular year whoever controls the government. Did you see this? this government give massive tax deduction, then how to finance the expenses already budgeted, can reduce the government employees salary? NO. then get a loan or money printing is what the government does. Is this good for the country? the same thing did the last government giving massive salary increment( rs 10000) to government employees"



I agree that taxes are a huge income for gov. And now our revenue is lower than expenditures. That's true but i believe that tax deduction is a good decision made by gov. Yeah there are few problems as u told. But as a developing country comparing to malaysia,singapore,indonesia or india, we had too high tax rates. And gov could increase tax rates more and balance the budget but people will die. Harder time will come for businesses. But with the tax deduction people will encourage more to the business field. Which is good for the country. Yeah they will have to print more. But considering long term, tax deduction will be good for the country.


Yeah Debt to GDP may stay below 60% is better. Now it is 82.99% . What to do? There are 2 ways. Not to take loans or increase GDP growth rate. I believe GDP rate will grow in near future with the decisions of gov.


Short Term Targets - Page 4 Thediplomat-fig-1
2020 Will be a turning point.


Yeah we can't expect much without those facts. I believe this gov will take actions for the future of the country.

70Short Term Targets - Page 4 Empty Re: Short Term Targets Mon Feb 03, 2020 3:45 pm

Kipling


Expert
Expert
Kavindu 
100% agree. 
Your analysis stands out for pragmatism & supreme intelligence.
I cannot accept that you are 18.
Thanks

71Short Term Targets - Page 4 Empty Re: Short Term Targets Mon Feb 03, 2020 3:52 pm

liyanaarachchi


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
@Kipling wrote:Kavindu 
100% agree. 
Your analysis stands out for pragmatism & supreme intelligence.
I cannot accept that you are 18.
Thanks
Yeah. I am amazing that he is 18 tongue

72Short Term Targets - Page 4 Empty Re: Short Term Targets Mon Feb 03, 2020 4:01 pm

kasun_gimhana

kasun_gimhana
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@KavinduTM
 you have done a good analysis. Haha, hope you will achieve your 1 billion target.

73Short Term Targets - Page 4 Empty Re: Short Term Targets Mon Feb 03, 2020 7:40 pm

Kipling


Expert
Expert
Hi Kavindu 
It seems that Cabral & Kapila Chandrasena are going to cause major embarrassment for MR as he appointed them both to CBSL & SriLankan respectively.GR cannot be blamed. Will this impact GR ability to gain 150+ to drive his reform program. Await your response.
Thanks

74Short Term Targets - Page 4 Empty Re: Short Term Targets Mon Feb 03, 2020 8:00 pm

KavinduTM

KavinduTM
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Kipling wrote:Kavindu 
100% agree. 
Your analysis stands out for pragmatism & supreme intelligence.
I cannot accept that you are 18.
Thanks

Hey Kipling. Thank you very much xD.
I could have done this for all the time but i m doing A/L u know. I m doing Maths for A/L. Actually i don't have much free time because of classes + have to study  Sad

75Short Term Targets - Page 4 Empty Re: Short Term Targets Mon Feb 03, 2020 8:01 pm

KavinduTM

KavinduTM
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@liyanaarachchi wrote:
@Kipling wrote:Kavindu 
100% agree. 
Your analysis stands out for pragmatism & supreme intelligence.
I cannot accept that you are 18.
Thanks
Yeah. I am amazing that he is 18 tongue

Haha  I love you

76Short Term Targets - Page 4 Empty Re: Short Term Targets Mon Feb 03, 2020 8:03 pm

KavinduTM

KavinduTM
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@kasun_gimhana wrote:@KavinduTM
 you have done a good analysis. Haha, hope you will achieve your 1 billion target.

Yeah i did some. Thank you for getting me to that topic. i learned a lot of things  Smile

Oh thanks  I love you

77Short Term Targets - Page 4 Empty Re: Short Term Targets Mon Feb 03, 2020 8:56 pm

Kipling


Expert
Expert
Hi Kavindu 
Please respond to my last post.
Your take is awaited.

78Short Term Targets - Page 4 Empty Re: Short Term Targets Mon Feb 03, 2020 9:08 pm

KavinduTM

KavinduTM
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Kipling wrote:Hi Kavindu 
Please respond to my last post.
Your take is awaited.
Hi mate.

I don't think that will be a problem. GR will make them right. Actually i guess there are some inside fights with MR too. GR don't like some decisions made by MR. such as aviation appointments and above u mentioned.

79Short Term Targets - Page 4 Empty Re: Short Term Targets Mon Feb 03, 2020 9:16 pm

Kipling


Expert
Expert
Kavindu 
Do you think GR will secure 150+ @ election to be called March2.

80Short Term Targets - Page 4 Empty Re: Short Term Targets Mon Feb 03, 2020 9:38 pm

KavinduTM

KavinduTM
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Kipling wrote:Kavindu 
Do you think GR will secure 150+ @ election to be called March2.

I don't think. That's hard. he will secure 113+ but 2/3 is harder coz already some group of voters are disappointed saying the tax deduction didn't affected to ordinary people,Vegetable prices and some silly problems like that. And previous gov haven't paid the bills for medicine for 3 months (as i remember) and now they have to pay it. Almost there are no SPC medicines in pharmacies. Most of people need quick gains , so 2/3 will be harder (not impossible) but there's a doubt. And don't you think majority is enough? As above conversations happened, i guess overpower won't be good. Personally i believe GR as i see some special qualities of him. However that power (2/3 of parliament) will lead the country to the heaven or hell. Both is possible. however 2/3 is needed only for critical decisions neh? opposition will help for good decisions i guess. at least 30 more (as they will secure around 120). Tell me your idea about 2/3.

81Short Term Targets - Page 4 Empty Re: Short Term Targets Mon Feb 03, 2020 9:47 pm

Kipling


Expert
Expert
Kavindu. 100% agree. 
As per 19th amendment GR will be able to implement reforms if PM (that is MR) agreeable. My issue is MR agenda could be different from GR. If 2/3 got then 19th out & GR true executive President. That is why 150+ important. If he falls short maybe crossovers will happen. Await your response.

82Short Term Targets - Page 4 Empty Re: Short Term Targets Mon Feb 03, 2020 9:59 pm

Kipling


Expert
Expert
Kavindu 
Sorry to bother. 
Await your reply. 
Also will run start Wednesday?

83Short Term Targets - Page 4 Empty Re: Short Term Targets Mon Feb 03, 2020 10:07 pm

KavinduTM

KavinduTM
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Kipling wrote:Kavindu. 100% agree. 
As per 19th amendment GR will be able to implement reforms if PM (that is MR) agreeable. My issue is MR agenda could be different from GR. If 2/3 got then 19th out & GR true executive President. That is why 150+ important. If he falls short maybe crossovers will happen. Await your response.

Aha idk that. Yeah did u mean  that they will try to create 2/3 power by getting other MP's?

84Short Term Targets - Page 4 Empty Re: Short Term Targets Mon Feb 03, 2020 10:08 pm

Kipling


Expert
Expert
Yes. Will run start Wednesday

85Short Term Targets - Page 4 Empty Re: Short Term Targets Mon Feb 03, 2020 10:08 pm

KavinduTM

KavinduTM
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Kipling wrote:Kavindu 
Sorry to bother. 
Await your reply. 
Also will run start Wednesday?

Nah its okay xD.
Yeah i hope so.
When will be the GE? March or April?

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