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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » CORPORATE CHRONICLE™ » Inflation in Sri Lanka

Inflation in Sri Lanka

+23
VALUEPICK
Gainer
Quibit
NZ BOY
stockback
indi009
RPPA
Prince
sharekhan
Jiggysaurus
VISA
Backstage
Jake Sully
traderathome
Burpy
salt
Redbulls
kukumarx
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soileconomy
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27 posters

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26Inflation in Sri Lanka - Page 2 Empty Re: Inflation in Sri Lanka Mon Jun 24, 2013 1:27 pm

sharekhan


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic

its biriyani and not buriyani..........

27Inflation in Sri Lanka - Page 2 Empty Re: Inflation in Sri Lanka Tue Jun 25, 2013 2:53 pm

Prince


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

I am 100% sure we'll see the opposite news in the same paper in next JAN 2014 ..........................    once the so called market players  collected the most of the float of chicken shares for the least value they can.

Then you will see a lot of newspaper articles on increased chicken consumption, increased per capita income , high living conditions and unexpected demand in the market.

Beware its .....

"CHICKEN RUN - 2014"


(probably we might get it in 3D.)

RPPA


Expert
Expert

Food price data released by the Department of Census and Statistics (DCS) for the first two weeks of October showed mixed movements, with upticks seen in most categories of vegetables, while categories of fruits and fresh fish saw declines. During September, food prices dipped 0.4% MOM.

Prices of most varieties of vegetables showed increases during October owing to rainy conditions curbing supply. Another factor for the reduced output is due to the end of the Yala harvesting. However, rice prices saw declines towards the latter half of the month as increased imports of rice in September had improved supply . Despite a fall in prices of fresh fish during the first half of October, rainy conditions across the country during the remainder of the month could see more upward pressure on these prices. Overall, we feel that F&B inflation could see a slight uptick from previous months of declines.

With the full implementation of the reduction in electricity tariffs by 25% by the GOSL, we expect to see a significant fall in inflation in the Utilities sub-category in October. Adding to this, the Transport category could also see some pass-through effects of the reduction in fuel prices implemented in the second half of last month.

Based on the above factors, we expect overall headline inflation to decline for a third consecutive month on a MOM basis, falling by 0.90% in October. On a YOY basis, it is expected to fall to 2.4% from 3.5% growth in the previous month.



Last edited by RPPA on Wed Oct 29, 2014 7:54 pm; edited 1 time in total

29Inflation in Sri Lanka - Page 2 Empty Re: Inflation in Sri Lanka Wed Oct 29, 2014 7:53 pm

indi009


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

RPPA wrote:Food price data released by the Department of Census and Statistics (DCS) for the first two weeks of October showed mixed movements, with upticks seen in most categories of vegetables, while categories of fruits and fresh fish saw declines. During September, food prices dipped 0.4% MOM.

Prices of most varieties of vegetables showed increases during October owing to rainy conditions curbing supply. Another factor for the reduced output is due to the end of the Yala harvesting. However, rice prices saw declines towards the latter half of the month as increased imports of rice in September had improved supply . Despite a fall in prices of fresh fish during the first half of October, rainy conditions across the country during the remainder of the month could see more upward pressure on these prices. Overall, we feel that F&B inflation could see a slight uptick from previous months of declines.

With the full implementation of the reduction in electricity tariffs by 25% by the GOSL, we expect to see a significant fall in inflation in the Utilities sub-category in October. Adding to this, the Transport category could also see some pass-through effects of the reduction in fuel prices implemented in the second half of last month.

Based on the above factors, we expect overall headline inflation to decline for a third consecutive month on a MOM basis, falling by 0.90% in October. On a YOY basis, it is expected to fall to 2.4% from 3.5% growth in the previous month.


hEY RPPA

Do u have any news on SFIN?????

30Inflation in Sri Lanka - Page 2 Empty Re: Inflation in Sri Lanka Wed Oct 29, 2014 7:59 pm

RPPA


Expert
Expert

SFIN - On the fundamental view point

1st QTR EPS Rs.0.45/share

So by annualising it by multiplying by 4 will not give a big boost for the price appreciation. As per now 21/- will be the maximum expectation.



31Inflation in Sri Lanka - Page 2 Empty Re: Inflation in Sri Lanka Wed Oct 29, 2014 8:06 pm

indi009

indi009
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

Thanks,

I hold 100,000 shares of SFIN. I would rather sell it and go for another investment.

What are the shares that you would consider for a short term gain???

32Inflation in Sri Lanka - Page 2 Empty Re: Inflation in Sri Lanka Wed Oct 29, 2014 8:19 pm

RPPA


Expert
Expert

indi009 wrote:Thanks,

I hold 100,000 shares of SFIN. I would rather sell it and go for another investment.

What are the shares that you would consider for a short term gain???

LIOC,CFVF,VPEL,LGL

33Inflation in Sri Lanka - Page 2 Empty Re: Inflation in Sri Lanka Wed Oct 29, 2014 8:21 pm

indi009

indi009
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

RPPA wrote:
indi009 wrote:Thanks,

I hold 100,000 shares of SFIN. I would rather sell it and go for another investment.

What are the shares that you would consider for a short term gain???

LIOC,CFVF,VPEL,LGL

Can you pls mention the expected price of these shares.............

34Inflation in Sri Lanka - Page 2 Empty Re: Inflation in Sri Lanka Wed Oct 29, 2014 8:25 pm

RPPA


Expert
Expert

indi009 wrote:
RPPA wrote:
indi009 wrote:Thanks,

I hold 100,000 shares of SFIN. I would rather sell it and go for another investment.

What are the shares that you would consider for a short term gain???

LIOC,CFVF,VPEL,LGL

Can you pls mention the expected price of these shares.............

LIOC 60/-
CFVF 65/- TO 70/- or more
VPEL 8 TO 9
LGL 46/-

35Inflation in Sri Lanka - Page 2 Empty Re: Inflation in Sri Lanka Wed Oct 29, 2014 9:04 pm

indi009

indi009
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

Thanks........

36Inflation in Sri Lanka - Page 2 Empty Any Idea about October 2014 Inflation Fri Oct 31, 2014 1:38 pm

stockback


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

Any Idea about October 2014 Inflation

Vegetable price bit high...
Rice and some other stuff bit high price during October

37Inflation in Sri Lanka - Page 2 Empty Re: Inflation in Sri Lanka Fri Oct 31, 2014 1:40 pm

RPPA


Expert
Expert

stockback wrote:Any Idea about October 2014 Inflation

Vegetable price bit high...
Rice and some other stuff bit high price during October

BELOW 3% FOR SURE.

38Inflation in Sri Lanka - Page 2 Empty Re: Inflation in Sri Lanka Fri Oct 31, 2014 1:48 pm

stockback


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

RPPA wrote:
stockback wrote:Any Idea about October 2014 Inflation

Vegetable price bit high...
Rice and some other stuff bit high price during October

BELOW 3% FOR SURE.

If its below 3.0%

very nice......

39Inflation in Sri Lanka - Page 2 Empty Re: Inflation in Sri Lanka Fri Oct 31, 2014 4:50 pm

stockback


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

Inflation 1.6% Y-Y

diffidently interest down. very good for all sectors.

Specially CFVF,ESL.............

40Inflation in Sri Lanka - Page 2 Empty Re: Inflation in Sri Lanka Fri Oct 31, 2014 6:31 pm

RPPA


Expert
Expert

stockback wrote:Inflation 1.6% Y-Y

diffidently interest down. very good for all sectors.

Specially CFVF,ESL.............


Headline inflation fell to its lowest level on a YOY basis since October 2009, growing by 1.6% in October 2014. On a MOM basis it recorded a decline of 1.6%, the largest drop seen since the beginning of the 2006 base. This was below our forecast of 2.4% YOY inflation, which expected a more modest decline of 0.9% on a MOM basis.

F&B inflation saw a slight uptick of 0.1% MOM due to rainy conditions prevailing across the country. Inflation in this category, however, was contained due to improved supply of rice during the month from increased imports entering the market.

Effects of the 25% reduction in electricity tariffs during the prior month was evident in October as the Energy category recorded a 7.8% decline over the month. This resulted in the largest ever YOY decline of 7.9% seen in this category. The Transport category also saw a further fall from fuel price reductions, effective last month, contracting by 0.8% over the month. Thus, Non-Food inflation declined by 3.1% and 0.9% on a MOM and YOY basis respectively.

Core inflation remained muted during the month, recording flat growth on a MOM basis from negative growth of 0.2% recorded last month. On a YOY basis it moderated to 3.6% in October.

NZ BOY

NZ BOY
Moderator
Moderator

Sri Lanka can cut rates once inflation expectations stable-c.bank chief
Tue Jan 27, 2015 4:59am EST

COLOMBO, Jan 27 (Reuters) - Sri Lanka can reduce its policy interest rates below their current record low levels once inflationary expectations subside and become stable, new Central Bank Governor Arjuna Mahendran said on Tuesday.

"Inflation expectations are still embedded in people's minds," Mahendran told Reuters in an interview after the central bank announced its January policy decision. "We have to keep rates stable for a while until those inflationary expectations come down to a stable level and then we can cut interest rates further."

The central bank left policy rates steady on Tuesday for a 12th straight month, as expected. Speaking after his first monetary policy meeting, Mahendran said inflation was expected to ease further with the economy expected "to record a robust performance", predicting growth of 7.5 percent this year. (Reporting by Shihar Aneez; Editing by Simon Cameron-Moore)

Source
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSL4N0V62DT20150127?irpc=932

42Inflation in Sri Lanka - Page 2 Empty Re: Inflation in Sri Lanka Wed Jan 28, 2015 10:30 pm

Quibit


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

Can we maintain the inflation at current level.

43Inflation in Sri Lanka - Page 2 Empty Re: Inflation in Sri Lanka Wed Jan 28, 2015 10:39 pm

Quibit


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

Both Demand pull inflation and cost push inflation can be witnessed in coming months. Hope that the the new CB Governor can recompose the product basket of the CPI to more realistic one within 100 days in order ascertain the real purchasing power of a Sri Lanka.

44Inflation in Sri Lanka - Page 2 Empty Re: Inflation in Sri Lanka Thu Jan 29, 2015 12:13 am

Gainer

Gainer
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics

ESL and CFVF both are bright future.

VALUEPICK

VALUEPICK
Expert
Expert

·Take advantage of falling grain, copper, oil, rubber and other raw material prices through listed companies in the CSE.

 ·Take advantage of lower interest rate through listed companies in the CSE


· Take advantage of lower inflation through  listed companies in the CSE

46Inflation in Sri Lanka - Page 2 Empty Re: Inflation in Sri Lanka Wed Sep 02, 2015 1:33 pm

VALUEPICK

VALUEPICK
Expert
Expert

It is very simple to analyse.
 
Lower oil prices will send down energy prices of all types of manufacturing companies including plantation companies
Lower grain prices, lower oil prices and lower electricity bill will send down cost of production of grain elevators and other poultry companies
Lower rubber prices will benefit rubber manufacturing companies
Lower copper prices will benefit some production companies
Companies can expand their businesses thanks to lower interest rates and borrowing cost will come down
Lower inflation will increase consumer purchasing power. They will create more demand for products and services.
 
On top of that, there is good demand for some product and services. Some companies will make strong earnings in the coming quarters due to demand factor and cost factor. In addition keep an eye on some out of favour industries and companies. They will comeback strongly.
 
It is time to identify top winners in the market before they become more expensive in the remaining stages of current bull market. Frontier markets are more attractive than other markets now.

47Inflation in Sri Lanka - Page 2 Empty Re: Inflation in Sri Lanka Wed Sep 02, 2015 1:59 pm

ddrperera


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics

VALUEPICK wrote:It is very simple to analyse.
 
Lower oil prices will send down energy prices of all types of manufacturing companies including plantation companies
Lower grain prices, lower oil prices and lower electricity bill will send down cost of production of grain elevators and other poultry companies
Lower rubber prices will benefit rubber manufacturing companies
Lower copper prices will benefit some production companies
Companies can expand their businesses thanks to lower interest rates and borrowing cost will come down
Lower inflation will increase consumer purchasing power. They will create more demand for products and services.
 
On top of that, there is good demand for some product and services. Some companies will make strong earnings in the coming quarters due to demand factor and cost factor. In addition keep an eye on some out of favour industries and companies. They will comeback strongly.
 
It is time to identify top winners in the market before they become more expensive in the remaining stages of current bull market. Frontier markets are more attractive than other markets now.
before period value pick  did not mention name of shares and give a hint..now indirectly tell...tell directly.. Very Happy

48Inflation in Sri Lanka - Page 2 Empty Re: Inflation in Sri Lanka Wed Sep 02, 2015 2:03 pm

peacockman


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

VALUEPICK wrote:·Take advantage of falling grain, copper, oil, rubber and other raw material prices through listed companies in the CSE ........ ...................
Power Plants like,

VLL
VPEL
PAP......

49Inflation in Sri Lanka - Page 2 Empty Re: Inflation in Sri Lanka Wed Sep 02, 2015 2:53 pm

VALUEPICK

VALUEPICK
Expert
Expert

ddrperera wrote:
VALUEPICK wrote:It is very simple to analyse.
 
Lower oil prices will send down energy prices of all types of manufacturing companies including plantation companies
Lower grain prices, lower oil prices and lower electricity bill will send down cost of production of grain elevators and other poultry companies
Lower rubber prices will benefit rubber manufacturing companies
Lower copper prices will benefit some production companies
Companies can expand their businesses thanks to lower interest rates and borrowing cost will come down
Lower inflation will increase consumer purchasing power. They will create more demand for products and services.
 
On top of that, there is good demand for some product and services. Some companies will make strong earnings in the coming quarters due to demand factor and cost factor. In addition keep an eye on some out of favour industries and companies. They will comeback strongly.
 
It is time to identify top winners in the market before they become more expensive in the remaining stages of current bull market. Frontier markets are more attractive than other markets now.
before period value pick  did not mention name of shares and give a hint..now indirectly tell...tell directly.. Very Happy
Lot of stocks will go up in the coming stages of current bull market. It is not necessary to do panic buying and panic selling. I buy simple business I can understand now. Then we can minimize losses. Otherwise we can lose million in stock markets. Stock market is the place where we make both profits and losses. It is normal.
 
There are two types of stocks in my basket
 
Strong stocks
Out of favour stocks
 
and continuously searching for new ones (two out of favour companies under my radar are: UDPL and ELPL)
 
In addition, I am thinking why cannot change personality of VONE and SPEN?
 
Other option is pick better stock that we think in each group as follows.
 
Banking and Finance
Diversify
Poultry
Production
Plantation
 
Then later stage of current bull market it is wise to allocate more funds to some defensive sectors such as Food and beverages including hot beverages (tea) and health care etc.

50Inflation in Sri Lanka - Page 2 Empty Re: Inflation in Sri Lanka Wed Sep 02, 2015 3:33 pm

samaritan


Moderator
Moderator

BULL & BEAR HAS FORMED A NATIONAL GOVERNMENTInflation in Sri Lanka - Page 2 Icon_evil. SO,

TAKE ADVANTAGE OF FALLING SHARE PRICES!

51Inflation in Sri Lanka - Page 2 Empty Re: Inflation in Sri Lanka Sat Sep 12, 2015 4:24 am

VALUEPICK

VALUEPICK
Expert
Expert

samaritan wrote:BULL & BEAR HAS FORMED A NATIONAL GOVERNMENTInflation in Sri Lanka - Page 2 Icon_evil. SO,

TAKE ADVANTAGE OF FALLING SHARE PRICES!
Yes. We should take advantage of falling share prices as well specially from stocks of companies having strong outlook.
 
Grain, cotton and other raw materials prices are cheaper in emerging economies than before with depreciating of emerging market currencies, particularly the Brazilian real and Indian rupee. Sri-Lanka import lot of things from India.

52Inflation in Sri Lanka - Page 2 Empty Re: Inflation in Sri Lanka Sat Sep 12, 2015 9:24 am

Teller

Teller
Moderator
Moderator

Hydro POWER PLANTS are in RISK now. low oil,charcol prices can reduce unit cost of electricity. So hydro power plant cant fight to increase rates.

53Inflation in Sri Lanka - Page 2 Empty Re: Inflation in Sri Lanka Sat Sep 12, 2015 9:52 am

VALUEPICK

VALUEPICK
Expert
Expert

Teller wrote:Hydro POWER PLANTS are  in RISK now. low oil,charcol prices can reduce unit cost of electricity.  So hydro power plant cant fight to increase rates.
Yes lot of things link to each other. Lower oil in 2016 means lower oil for other oils such as soya bean oil, corn oil, palm oil and canola oil etc.  Some alternative energy also will have tough time.
 
Production companies, airlines, ship and aircraft builders, car manufactures,  transportation companies, grain elevators, food processing companies, plantation companies having more factories and other equipments will benefit lot thanks to lower energy cost and other low raw materials prices. Even if rupee stay below Rs.140 and around Rs.148 still some commodity will become cheaper except item like cars due to falling currencies in emerging countries and falling commodity prices. According to some analysts oil can go to $ 20 level. Some companies will make use of falling prices to expand their business wisely.    
 
We are having a cycle and we have to face for it. It is time to look for some emerging commodities and emerging companies in the emerging sectors. Every situation, there are winners. 

54Inflation in Sri Lanka - Page 2 Empty Re: Inflation in Sri Lanka Wed Oct 14, 2015 12:20 pm

VALUEPICK

VALUEPICK
Expert
Expert

http://www.economynext.com/Sri_Lanka_FMCG,_manufacturing_firm_earnings_seen_up-3-3233-3.html

Sri Lanka FMCG, manufacturing firm earnings seen up


ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lankan fast moving consumer goods and manufacturing companies are expected to report higher earnings in the September quarter given low fuel and commodity prices and deflationary conditions that have improved buying power, brokers said.  

The effect of the price reductions on the economy were seen large as deflation was last reported two decades back, Sampath Securities said in an earnings note to clients.

“We expect the level of consumption to be increased over the quarter with the reduced price levels. As a result we expect companies with FMCG exposure to post notable results during the period.”

The island has been experiencing deflation in the three months to September after the new government reduced prices of essentials items in the food and non-food categories earlier this year. 

The brokers said sharply lower global commodity prices during the quarter should also help manufacturers by reducing costs. 

Oil prices declined by 24 percent to 46 US dollars a barrel in September from the end of June while copper prices dropped 12 percent due to weak demand from larger economies. 

Global cotton prices declined 12.3 percent during the quarter to 59.2 US cents a pound due to a supply glut while aluminum prices dropped five percent.

“Further, domestic fuel prices revised down earlier this year remained constant during the quarter and electricity tariffs revised down also remained unchanged,” Sampath Securities said. 

“Therefore, since the commodity prices and energy prices remained favourable during the quarter, we expect certain counters in the manufacturing sector to report bolstered results.”  (Colombo/October 13 2015

55Inflation in Sri Lanka - Page 2 Empty Inflation in Sri Lanka Sat Feb 29, 2020 7:45 am

Quibit


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

Headline inflation as measured by the year-on-year (Y-o-Y) change in the Colombo Consumer Price Index (CCPI, 2013=100)  increased to 6.2 per cent in February 2020 from 5.7 per cent in January 2020. This was solely driven by the statistical effect of the low base prevailed in February 2019. Food inflation (Y-o-Y) stood at 14.7 per cent in February 2020, while Non-food inflation (Y-o-Y) recorded at 2.8 per cent.

The change in the CCPI measured on an annual average basis increased to 4.6 per cent in February 2020 from 4.5 per cent in January 2020.

Monthly change of CCPI recorded at 0.0 per cent in February 2020.  Setting off the price effects of items in the food category, which declined by 0.2 per cent, the prices in non-food category increased by the same magnitude. Within the Food category, prices of vegetables, rice, big onions, potatoes, sea fish and red onions recorded decreases in February 2020. However, prices of items in the Non-Food category recorded increases during the month owing to price increases of the items in Transportation (airline fair); Clothing and Footwear; and Recreation and Culture sub-categories.

The core inflation, which reflects the underlying inflation in the economy, increased to 3.2 per cent in February 2020 from 3.0 per cent in January 2020 on year-on-year basis. However, annual average core inflation decreased to 5.1 per cent in February 2020 from 5.3 per cent in January 2020.

https://www.cbsl.gov.lk/en/news/CCPI-based-Inflation-increased-in-February-2020



Last edited by Quibit on Sun Mar 22, 2020 2:01 am; edited 1 time in total

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