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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » CORPORATE CHRONICLE™ » Lets try to understand what is happening in the market right now

Lets try to understand what is happening in the market right now

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celtic tiger


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@samaritan wrote:
@celtic tiger wrote:
@reyaz wrote:Banking and Insurance made thumping profits and are acting like beggars, anyone disagree? give your reasons, I am all ears
  
prevailing rates and policies MAKE these sectors lazy money making businesses(All they have to do is to site down all day on a nice chair ) . In develop countries  deposit rates  1.5 to 3
                                            lending rates 5 to 7.5
                                            mortgage rates 1.5 to 4.5
Sri lankan  rates has to change if we wants to become a production driven economy.
In developed countries interest rates are very low b'cos their currencies are strong unlike here. See how rupee has depreciated you will understand.
When interest rates are rising both businesses and consumers will cut back on spending this will cause earnings to fall and stock prices to drop.
central bank can bring down the rates. I can't understand the connection between interest rate and weak rupee?
I think rupee is getting weak because of/ import, export gap/decreasing foreign remittance /huge foreign debt. please correct me if I am wrong here.

Rare


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
Cannot understand the market. Pakistan stocks beat other markets, charging bull above pre-virus level after recent terrorist attack on the Pakistan stocks exchange and having corona. Where is the risk?

kasun_gimhana


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
The market is going up while economic conditions are deteriorating, This is mainly due to the quantitative easing. If this continues the market will go up further but the government can't continue quantitative easing forever. quantitative easing creates a gap between the market and the economy. so there will be a market correction in the future but can't predict when maybe one-year ahead. But as an investor, it is better to prepare anything and diversification will help. I think it is better to have gold, at least 10% in the portfolio. 

Yahapalanaya


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@kasun_gimhana wrote:The market is going up while economic conditions are deteriorating, This is mainly due to the quantitative easing. If this continues the market will go up further but the government can't continue quantitative easing forever. quantitative easing creates a gap between the market and the economy. so there will be a market correction in the future but can't predict when maybe one-year ahead. But as an investor, it is better to prepare anything and diversification will help. I think it is better to have gold, at least 10% in the portfolio. 
Correct.But it won't take one year.It will be soon with current or next quarter companies financial release , country's covid/corrupted economy fall,political infighting,etc.

Rare


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
Something wrong. Why is this market rising?
 
Pakistan’s Stock Market becomes The 2nd Best Performer Globally
https://propakistani.pk/2020/08/03/pakistans-stock-market-becomes-the-2nd-best-performer-globally/
Pakistan’s benchmark index, KSE-100, was the second-best performer globally in the past month according to Bloomberg’s data and has gained 47% since reaching the lowest this year on March 25. The stocks have recovered all the losses caused by the coronavirus.

celtic tiger


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Rare wrote:
Something wrong. Why is this market rising?
 
Pakistan’s Stock Market becomes The 2nd Best Performer Globally
https://propakistani.pk/2020/08/03/pakistans-stock-market-becomes-the-2nd-best-performer-globally/
Pakistan’s benchmark index, KSE-100, was the second-best performer globally in the past month according to Bloomberg’s data and has gained 47% since reaching the lowest this year on March 25. The stocks have recovered all the losses caused by the coronavirus.
Serious investors  sees more opportunity in a county that had- WORST past- BAD present- but BRIGHT future sunny

samaritan and Kipling like this post

jaya


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
https://lankacitizens.com/breaking-news/%e0%b7%81%e0%b7%8a%e2%80%8d%e0%b6%bb%e0%b7%92%e0%b6%bd%e0%b6%b1%e0%b7%92%e0%b6%b4-%e0%b7%84%e0%b6%af%e0%b7%92%e0%b7%83%e0%b7%92-%e0%b7%84%e0%b6%b8%e0%b7%94%e0%b7%80-%e0%b6%9a%e0%b7%94%e0%b6%b8/

Kaish86


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Seems SJB will form the govt eith slfp and slpp has to sit in opposition ??

samaritan


Moderator
Moderator
People resort to playing 'mind games' on the eve of an election. Similar games could not influence the outcome of the last Presidential election. Finally party that favours bullish sentiment in the CSE will form the Govt.


_________________




The biggest risk in life is not taking any risk at all.

Kipling likes this post

Bargain


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
try Understand next runners before they pass big names.

Bargain


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
Try to Understand next big runners before they pass big names.

celtic tiger


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
At the moment, more reasons to be a bear market than to be bull. 2/3 majority is the only short term answer for bull run but it'snot going to happen.
best thing to do is picking future winners as BARGAIN SAID .

Kipling dislikes this post

Rare

Rare
Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
@celtic tiger wrote:
@Rare wrote:
Something wrong. Why is this market rising?
 
Pakistan’s Stock Market becomes The 2nd Best Performer Globally
https://propakistani.pk/2020/08/03/pakistans-stock-market-becomes-the-2nd-best-performer-globally/
Pakistan’s benchmark index, KSE-100, was the second-best performer globally in the past month according to Bloomberg’s data and has gained 47% since reaching the lowest this year on March 25. The stocks have recovered all the losses caused by the coronavirus.
Serious investors  sees more opportunity in a county that had- WORST past- BAD present- but BRIGHT future sunny
Hit 21-week high. KSE-100 crosses 40000-point barrier.
https://www.samaa.tv/money/2020/08/pakistan-stocks/
Where is the corona?

Kipling likes this post

Rare

Rare
Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
Try to understand why the stock market does not follow reality. More surprises. The PSX started to move up and gained over 5,000 points in the month of July alone — a 17-year high for a single month.
https://www.foxnews.com/world/pakistan-roll-back-lockdown-measures-death-coronavirus
Pakistan to roll back lockdown measures as COVID-19 death numbers decline
Pakistan's situation has improved significantly compared to other countries in the region," Umar said, according to Barron’s. Government data indicates that Pakistan’s daily virus deaths peaked in June with 150 people per day.OVID-19 death numbers decline. The numbers have continued to dwindle, and on Thursday only 21 new fatalities were reported.
Schools and universities planned to reopen Sept. 15, subject to a final review, Umar said. Non-contact sports will resume Monday, but no audiences will be present.
 “The threat has not gone away. The situation has improved because the government formulated a clear strategy which was implemented by the administrative machinery,” Umar said, the Hindustan Times reported.

celtic tiger


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Foreign debt of the country is the dark cloud over us if new government can show some sort of ability to move this cloud will help CSE big time.

Love Boy


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
I can not understand market. but, huge funds seem to be invest the market without inform us. Sometimes,it may be EPF. But,I can not understand.

celtic tiger


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Love Boy wrote:I can not understand market. but, huge funds seem to be invest the market without inform us. Sometimes,it may be EPF. But,I can not understand.
Present low interest rates makes cse attractive to HNWI and to  locals funds at the same time depreciation of rupee force foreigners to sell.

dayandacool likes this post

Kipling


Expert
Expert
Samaritan 
So your view is strong bull on road to break all time high still on track. Correct?
How soon do you expect positive & bold reforms/ decisions from GR administration.

samaritan


Moderator
Moderator
@Kipling wrote:Samaritan 
So your view is strong bull on road to break all time high still on track. Correct?
How soon do you expect positive & bold reforms/ decisions from GR administration.
If you see the trend, HNWI are collecting while foreigners are selling. Political & economic stability are prerequisites to attract investments.
Political stability is already in place but the economic issues which worsened with covid has to be addressed. So, far the govt has been successful with the measures taken to keep the rupee stable. But in the future it will be necessary to obtain foreign assistance via agreements and other arrangements to uplift the economy.
Before year end you will see a totally different picture. I am optimistic!


_________________




The biggest risk in life is not taking any risk at all.

topgun86 likes this post

dayandacool

dayandacool
Moderator
Moderator
@samaritan wrote:
@Kipling wrote:Samaritan 
So your view is strong bull on road to break all time high still on track. Correct?
How soon do you expect positive & bold reforms/ decisions from GR administration.
If you see the trend, HNWI are collecting while foreigners are selling. Political & economic stability are prerequisites to attract investments.
Political stability is already in place but the economic issues which worsened with covid has to be addressed. So, far the govt has been successful with the measures taken to keep the rupee stable. But in the future it will be necessary to obtain foreign assistance via agreements and other arrangements to uplift the economy.
Before year end you will see a totally different picture. I am optimistic!


Agree with you on this. Issue is with high liquidity makes high inflation which leads foreign governments rethinking their lending policy or offer higher interest rates when lending money. Hope they will have a solution for that in future. If done right, SL is in a better path.

celtic tiger


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
we are in the right place (indian ocean) right time (covid19) if we do the right thing  Sri lanka will be the next tiger economy in asia.

Intrinsic


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@samaritan wrote:
@Kipling wrote:Samaritan 
So your view is strong bull on road to break all time high still on track. Correct?
How soon do you expect positive & bold reforms/ decisions from GR administration.
If you see the trend, HNWI are collecting while foreigners are selling. Political & economic stability are prerequisites to attract investments.
Political stability is already in place but the economic issues which worsened with covid has to be addressed. So, far the govt has been successful with the measures taken to keep the rupee stable. But in the future it will be necessary to obtain foreign assistance via agreements and other arrangements to uplift the economy.
Before year end you will see a totally different picture. I am optimistic!

Hi! 

80% agreed. The issue is the time frame you have given: Before year end. 

As I think, most probably that will further delay. Country's main income is exports & tourism. We will not get substantial export orders till US & EU become fully recovered from Covid. Also our inbound tourism will not regain its past glory till the travel bans are fully lifted from that end. 

Since US & EU are still struggling, I think this status will drag until mid of 2021 at least. 

Thanks.

celtic tiger


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Most of the foreign funds invested in banking sector. If future is not bright for the sector?? and foreigners are in selling mood ??RED RED

shihan 93


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
@celtic tiger wrote:Most of the foreign funds invested in banking sector. If future is not bright for the sector?? and foreigners are in selling mood ??RED RED
Foreigners was in selling mood for 3,4 months now

celtic tiger


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@shihan 93 wrote:
@celtic tiger wrote:Most of the foreign funds invested in banking sector. If future is not bright for the sector?? and foreigners are in selling mood ??RED RED
Foreigners was in selling mood for 3,4 months now

Yes . but banks were not bad 3,4 months ago. was it?

ResearchMan

ResearchMan
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
Really have to understand the market. How it works.

celtic tiger


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@ResearchMan wrote:Really have to understand the market. How it works.
 Higher trading %,New investors and  PANIC

ResearchMan

ResearchMan
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
@celtic tiger wrote:
@ResearchMan wrote:Really have to understand the market. How it works.
 Higher trading %,New investors and  PANIC
Understand the market and stocks cycles. The reality is that investment is not risk free but when approached in a disciplined manner, it is one of the most efficient ways to build up one's net worth.

KavinduTM likes this post

madukp


Expert
Expert
In brief panic sellers, gamblers and fools are selling and we are collecting. It's worthwhile to put FD in CSE for a couple of years then having a 5% interest rate. It will give us 50%+ profit fr sure.

KavinduTM and Kipling like this post

celtic tiger


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
1.Tug of war going on to be the richest man in SL
2.Foriegners keep selling because of falling rupee
3.Local money keep coming because of nor where to put them.
I am just try to understand current scenario ?? any thoughts ??

agentnrox and Nandun like this post

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