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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » CORPORATE CHRONICLE™ » All Share Price Index - ASPI

All Share Price Index - ASPI

+5
Intrinsic
dayandacool
samaritan
Kipling
KavinduTM
9 posters

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1All Share Price Index - ASPI Empty All Share Price Index - ASPI Fri Aug 21, 2020 9:09 pm

KavinduTM

KavinduTM
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

Today is 21st of August.

According to my latest technical analysis on ASI, market will recover within one and half month. The uptrend is already started.

Hopefully ASI will reach 5728 (Almost recovered) before October 1st if things will go on like this without any disasters (such as 2nd wave of covid-19). So we can recommend this period as a full buy situation.

Also mostly next week will be a green week.But also there's like 1% possibility it to be a red week too.( I'm talking about the overall result of the week) So thinking on the more possibility, it will be around 90+. Which will make ASI around 5475. The worst we can expect in next week will be stuck in the same level. I'm sure it won't be red.

Today ASI                          :- 5382
At the end of the next week :- 5382 - 5475
At the end of September      :- 5728 - 5831

Consider all above are just predictions. So there's a chance to go them wrong. But it won't go wrong :3

GL guys. Happy Trading!

Kipling, Junior investor and Mithooshan like this post

2All Share Price Index - ASPI Empty Re: All Share Price Index - ASPI Mon Aug 24, 2020 3:12 pm

KavinduTM

KavinduTM
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

1st day of the August last week

A Green day
ASPI :- 5385
Change :- +3

3All Share Price Index - ASPI Empty Re: All Share Price Index - ASPI Mon Aug 24, 2020 3:25 pm

Kipling


Expert
Expert

Kavindu. 
With all the enormous once in a life time positives why is the uptrend slow & without vigor. That I do not get.

4All Share Price Index - ASPI Empty Re: All Share Price Index - ASPI Mon Aug 24, 2020 3:42 pm

KavinduTM

KavinduTM
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

Kipling wrote:Kavindu. 
With all the enormous once in a life time positives why is the uptrend slow & without vigor. That I do not get.
I think foreigners are still waiting. Don't forget many big countries still suffers a lot because of the virus.

5All Share Price Index - ASPI Empty Re: All Share Price Index - ASPI Mon Aug 24, 2020 3:47 pm

KavinduTM

KavinduTM
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

Most probably tomorrow will be a red day.

6All Share Price Index - ASPI Empty Re: All Share Price Index - ASPI Tue Aug 25, 2020 10:46 am

samaritan


Moderator
Moderator

A Biden presidency could bring a huge boost to Asian markets, both short-term and long-term.

  • If Democratic nominee Joe Biden gets elected, it might boost Asia's stock market.

  • Strategists and economists say that Biden would likely move to remedy damaged foreign relationships when he takes office.

  • A resolution for strained relations in Asia could lift pressure off Asian equities.

  • https://www.ccn.com/asia-stock-market-biden-winning/


ASPI is expected to record steady gains over the next two months beginning with marginal gains. 

7All Share Price Index - ASPI Empty Re: All Share Price Index - ASPI Tue Aug 25, 2020 11:22 am

dayandacool

dayandacool
Moderator
Moderator

KavinduTM wrote:Most probably tomorrow will be a red day.

You got your wish.. Very Happy Very Happy

8All Share Price Index - ASPI Empty Re: All Share Price Index - ASPI Tue Aug 25, 2020 12:47 pm

samaritan


Moderator
Moderator

samaritan wrote:A Biden presidency could bring a huge boost to Asian markets, both short-term and long-term.

  • If Democratic nominee Joe Biden gets elected, it might boost Asia's stock market.

  • Strategists and economists say that Biden would likely move to remedy damaged foreign relationships when he takes office.

  • A resolution for strained relations in Asia could lift pressure off Asian equities.

  • https://www.ccn.com/asia-stock-market-biden-winning/


ASPI is expected to record steady gains over the next two months beginning with marginal gains. 
All Share Price Index - ASPI 560x-1
Biden win would be a more positive outcome for Asia equities, with a more predictable and less openly hostile foreign policy toward China likely,” UBS Global Wealth Management strategists led by Mark Haefele wrote in an Aug. 17 note.

9All Share Price Index - ASPI Empty Re: All Share Price Index - ASPI Tue Aug 25, 2020 2:37 pm

KavinduTM

KavinduTM
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

dayandacool wrote:
KavinduTM wrote:Most probably tomorrow will be a red day.

You got your wish.. Very Happy Very Happy

haha not the wish, but i saw that coming.

10All Share Price Index - ASPI Empty Re: All Share Price Index - ASPI Tue Aug 25, 2020 2:39 pm

KavinduTM

KavinduTM
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

2nd day of the August last week

A Red Day
ASPI :- 5361
Change :- (-24)


Overall Change for the week :- (-21)

11All Share Price Index - ASPI Empty Re: All Share Price Index - ASPI Tue Aug 25, 2020 3:28 pm

Intrinsic


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

Why today ASPI - 22.58 ? (as per CSE website)


Any noticeable reason for negative market sentiment? 

12All Share Price Index - ASPI Empty Re: All Share Price Index - ASPI Tue Aug 25, 2020 3:47 pm

Kipling


Expert
Expert

Kavindu 
Any news on the matter.

13All Share Price Index - ASPI Empty Re: All Share Price Index - ASPI Tue Aug 25, 2020 8:35 pm

Hope123


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

Touched 5350 and bounced back to read as 5379 and day closed as 5363. 
Turnover read as 2 Billion with 12356 traders. 
Can we expect green tomorrow.  bounce

14All Share Price Index - ASPI Empty Re: All Share Price Index - ASPI Tue Aug 25, 2020 9:05 pm

xhunter

xhunter
Moderator
Moderator

Hope123 wrote:Touched 5350 and bounced back to read as 5379 and day closed as 5363. 
Turnover read as 2 Billion with 12356 traders. 
Can we expect green tomorrow.  bounce
turnover is 2B, 1.4B contribution was from  4 counters (COMB,JKH,MELS,LOLC)

Zee likes this post

15All Share Price Index - ASPI Empty Re: All Share Price Index - ASPI Wed Aug 26, 2020 1:37 am

KavinduTM

KavinduTM
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

Tomorrow will be a green day. But little one.

16All Share Price Index - ASPI Empty All Share Price Index is in Red Wed Aug 26, 2020 8:38 pm

Intrinsic


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

During last two days foreigners pulled out billions. 


Can anyone say WHY ?

17All Share Price Index - ASPI Empty Re: All Share Price Index - ASPI Wed Aug 26, 2020 8:45 pm

xhunter

xhunter
Moderator
Moderator

USD to LKR again shows some upward trend
All Share Price Index - ASPI WMKzA8EReVTegAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==

18All Share Price Index - ASPI Empty Re: All Share Price Index - ASPI Wed Aug 26, 2020 9:14 pm

KavinduTM

KavinduTM
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

3rd day of the August last week

A Red Day
ASPI :- 5335
Change :- (-27)

Overall Change for the week :- (-47)

19All Share Price Index - ASPI Empty Re: All Share Price Index - ASPI Wed Aug 26, 2020 9:26 pm

Intrinsic


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

xhunter wrote:USD to LKR again shows some upward trend
All Share Price Index - ASPI WMKzA8EReVTegAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==

Hi! xhunter !

24/8 -- 184.481 LKR/USD
25/8 -- 184.610
26/8 -- 186.326

Yes, there is considerable effect !

20All Share Price Index - ASPI Empty Re: All Share Price Index - ASPI Thu Aug 27, 2020 10:21 am

Intrinsic


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

Intrinsic wrote:
xhunter wrote:USD to LKR again shows some upward trend
All Share Price Index - ASPI WMKzA8EReVTegAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==

Hi! xhunter !

24/8 -- 184.481 LKR/USD
25/8 -- 184.610
26/8 -- 186.326

Yes, there is considerable effect !


Month         Export      Trade deficit     LKR/USD (max)
April '20      277          - 840               193.56
May '20       602          - 407               190.52
June '20      906          - 161               186.78
July '20                                             186.06
August '20                                         186.15

(in million USD)
Couldn't find figures for July.
Sources: Tradingeconomy, Economynext & Exchangerate.org.uk

As per current govt policy of controlling imports, the trade deficit has come down to 161 i/o usual 800 levels. Covid must have had positive effect on this issue. Probably LKR will appreciate when our exports are bounced back to their normal levels.

21All Share Price Index - ASPI Empty Re: All Share Price Index - ASPI Thu Aug 27, 2020 10:37 am

dayandacool

dayandacool
Moderator
Moderator

Intrinsic wrote:
Intrinsic wrote:
xhunter wrote:USD to LKR again shows some upward trend
All Share Price Index - ASPI WMKzA8EReVTegAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==

Hi! xhunter !

24/8 -- 184.481 LKR/USD
25/8 -- 184.610
26/8 -- 186.326

Yes, there is considerable effect !


Month         Export      Trade deficit     LKR/USD (max)
April '20      277          - 840               193.56
May '20       602          - 407               190.52
June '20      906          - 161               186.78
July '20                                             186.06
August '20                                         186.15

(in million USD)
Couldn't find figures for July.
Sources: Tradingeconomy, Economynext & Exchangerate.org.uk

As per current govt policy of controlling imports, the trade deficit has come down to 161 i/o usual 800 levels. Covid must have had positive effect on this issue. Probably LKR will appreciate when our exports are bounced back to their normal levels.


There is another side to this as well. Even though we are trying to be an export base economy with a trade surplus, controlling imports have it's negative impacts too. We do not manufacture enough raw material for completely ban some of the imports. For example, even though we manufacture garments, we do not completely manufacture the raw materials involved in the garment segments. Another good example is the ban on imports of maize. Since we do not produce the required amount of maize in the country, whole paltry sector is in trouble at present.

Bottom line is, it's always good to restrict / ban imports. But when doing so, the government should first take necessary steps to produce them locally or gradually reduce imports rather than doing it in a haste. 

Present Ban in imports will be short lived as this was a counter measure taken to avoid economic impacts of covid and to stabilize the rupee against a back drop of a rupee collapse in March-April. When eventually they ease the ban on imports, rupee could hit high again.

Just my thoughts and I could be wrong.

22All Share Price Index - ASPI Empty Re: All Share Price Index - ASPI Thu Aug 27, 2020 11:51 am

Intrinsic


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

dayandacool wrote:
Intrinsic wrote:
Intrinsic wrote:
xhunter wrote:USD to LKR again shows some upward trend
All Share Price Index - ASPI WMKzA8EReVTegAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==

Hi! xhunter !

24/8 -- 184.481 LKR/USD
25/8 -- 184.610
26/8 -- 186.326

Yes, there is considerable effect !


Month         Export      Trade deficit     LKR/USD (max)
April '20      277          - 840               193.56
May '20       602          - 407               190.52
June '20      906          - 161               186.78
July '20                                             186.06
August '20                                         186.15

(in million USD)
Couldn't find figures for July.
Sources: Tradingeconomy, Economynext & Exchangerate.org.uk

As per current govt policy of controlling imports, the trade deficit has come down to 161 i/o usual 800 levels. Covid must have had positive effect on this issue. Probably LKR will appreciate when our exports are bounced back to their normal levels.


There is another side to this as well. Even though we are trying to be an export base economy with a trade surplus, controlling imports have it's negative impacts too. We do not manufacture enough raw material for completely ban some of the imports. For example, even though we manufacture garments, we do not completely manufacture the raw materials involved in the garment segments. Another good example is the ban on imports of maize. Since we do not produce the required amount of maize in the country, whole paltry sector is in trouble at present.

Bottom line is, it's always good to restrict / ban imports. But when doing so, the government should first take necessary steps to produce them locally or gradually reduce imports rather than doing it in a haste. 

Present Ban in imports will be short lived as this was a counter measure taken to avoid economic impacts of covid and to stabilize the rupee against a back drop of a rupee collapse in March-April. When eventually they ease the ban on imports, rupee could hit high again.

Just my thoughts and I could be wrong.

Hello Dayandacool,

Agreed! Thank you.

In order to save the local agriculture, certain imports must be controlled. It has to be done in well planned manner. As you can see the current situation of maize, turmeric etc.. It has to be based on supply / demand in each season, generally.

Local industries: Should ban whatever items that can be manufactured in SL in export quality.

Car imports can be selectively controlled for some reasonable period. The local auto manufacturers / assemblages will be benefited by doing so. But the Gosl will again lose their tax income too!

Garment industry: The current export value is not real. The effective garment industry export VALUE should be "export CIF - import CIF". If you say last year garment export was 6B usd, our real BENEFIT would be 2B because the balance 4B had been paid out to import piece-goods from China. You can't stop this unless we start our own quality fabric mills & trim factories. But starting good fabric mills is very unlikely to happen.

Since the Gosl is in severe debt crisis right now, they must control / ban imports to collect funds to service debts. Or else are they going to get more new loans to service the current debts ? Or selling out ports & airports ?

dayandacool likes this post

23All Share Price Index - ASPI Empty Re: All Share Price Index - ASPI Thu Aug 27, 2020 12:09 pm

dayandacool

dayandacool
Moderator
Moderator

Intrinsic wrote:
dayandacool wrote:
Intrinsic wrote:
Intrinsic wrote:
xhunter wrote:USD to LKR again shows some upward trend
All Share Price Index - ASPI WMKzA8EReVTegAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==

Hi! xhunter !

24/8 -- 184.481 LKR/USD
25/8 -- 184.610
26/8 -- 186.326

Yes, there is considerable effect !


Month         Export      Trade deficit     LKR/USD (max)
April '20      277          - 840               193.56
May '20       602          - 407               190.52
June '20      906          - 161               186.78
July '20                                             186.06
August '20                                         186.15

(in million USD)
Couldn't find figures for July.
Sources: Tradingeconomy, Economynext & Exchangerate.org.uk

As per current govt policy of controlling imports, the trade deficit has come down to 161 i/o usual 800 levels. Covid must have had positive effect on this issue. Probably LKR will appreciate when our exports are bounced back to their normal levels.


There is another side to this as well. Even though we are trying to be an export base economy with a trade surplus, controlling imports have it's negative impacts too. We do not manufacture enough raw material for completely ban some of the imports. For example, even though we manufacture garments, we do not completely manufacture the raw materials involved in the garment segments. Another good example is the ban on imports of maize. Since we do not produce the required amount of maize in the country, whole paltry sector is in trouble at present.

Bottom line is, it's always good to restrict / ban imports. But when doing so, the government should first take necessary steps to produce them locally or gradually reduce imports rather than doing it in a haste. 

Present Ban in imports will be short lived as this was a counter measure taken to avoid economic impacts of covid and to stabilize the rupee against a back drop of a rupee collapse in March-April. When eventually they ease the ban on imports, rupee could hit high again.

Just my thoughts and I could be wrong.

Hello Dayandacool,

Agreed! Thank you.

In order to save the local agriculture, certain imports must be controlled. It has to be done in well planned manner. As you can see the current situation of maize, turmeric etc.. It has to be based on supply / demand in each season, generally.

Local industries: Should ban whatever items that can be manufactured in SL in export quality.

Car imports can be selectively controlled for some reasonable period. The local auto manufacturers / assemblages will be benefited by doing so. But the Gosl will again lose their tax income too!

Garment industry: The current export value is not real. The effective garment industry export VALUE should be "export CIF - import CIF". If you say last year garment export was 6B usd, our real BENEFIT would be 2B because the balance 4B had been paid out to import piece-goods from China. You can't stop this unless we start our own quality fabric mills & trim factories. But starting good fabric mills is very unlikely to happen.

Since the Gosl is in severe debt crisis right now, they must control / ban imports to collect funds to service debts. Or else are they going to get more new loans to service the current debts ? Or selling out ports & airports ?

Agree with what you have posted. Government will need some short to medium term funds by the means of foreign loans. Government will present the vote on account today and heard that the prime minister will present another resolution under the local treasury bills ordinance to borrow a sum up to 750 Billion by the way of treasury bills, a good indication of the continuation of present low interest regime or may be even lower rates because government will not buy T bills any higher when market liquidity is high. then comes the scenario where increased liquidity causing high inflation and foreign governments will have second thought when lending. they have managed to control inflation till now but future is a challenge.

24All Share Price Index - ASPI Empty Re: All Share Price Index - ASPI Thu Aug 27, 2020 1:07 pm

samaritan


Moderator
Moderator

The negative trend triggered by foreign selling will not last long as absorption has been good thus far. I will not underestimate ANC's capability to turn things around and make CSE an attractive frontier market in the region by year end.

Intrinsic likes this post

25All Share Price Index - ASPI Empty Re: All Share Price Index - ASPI Sun Aug 30, 2020 12:53 am

KavinduTM

KavinduTM
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

KavinduTM wrote:Today is 21st of August.

According to my latest technical analysis on ASI, market will recover within one and half month. The uptrend is already started.

Hopefully ASI will reach 5728 (Almost recovered) before October 1st if things will go on like this without any disasters (such as 2nd wave of covid-19). So we can recommend this period as a full buy situation.

Also mostly next week will be a green week.But also there's like 1% possibility it to be a red week too.( I'm talking about the overall result of the week) So thinking on the more possibility, it will be around 90+. Which will make ASI around 5475. The worst we can expect in next week will be stuck in the same level. I'm sure it won't be red.

Today ASI                          :- 5382
At the end of the next week :- 5382 - 5475
At the end of September      :- 5728 - 5831

Consider all above are just predictions. So there's a chance to go them wrong. But it won't go wrong :3

GL guys. Happy Trading!

Prediction for last week of August went wrong. I expected between 0-90 points (+). But it was (-)62 points at the end of the week. ASI is so tricky and hard to predict. Also i noted few points why it went wrong for the last week. Still the targeted index for the end of September stands same.

For the 1st week of September, i think we will see few more bloody days and it should start a greeny uptrend asap.

Still analyzing and i ll update with more details sooner.

Good Luck.

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