It is not hard to predict. it is impossible to predict. even individual share prices also impossible predict. we can just say tomorrow it will be red or green ., or that share will drop. since there are only two possibilities (RED or GREEN) , there can be only two groups who predict it and result will as predicted by one group. even a broken clock is right twice a day.
Yeah like it is future, and yes i agree we can't predict but if we can't predict we won't be able to trade right?. Like always there's a chance to them go wrong. but at least predicting individual share prices is less harder.
Actually we all do predicting future prices when trading and investing. But as long as our rate of successful predictions is <50% we will win xD
Btw it is just human psychology. So i don't agree that predicting is impossible.
first of all,you have to understand the difference between "forecast","predict" and "wild guess". so called "prediction" is also done by gamblers at casino clubs.
I will give you one example of fact based prediction some what closer to forecasting.
Ex: fact JKH,DIAL,CTC, LOLC,COM has a bigger contribution to ASPI.
based events for predictions:
just assume following things happened in a single day:
1. LOLC reports out and ,it is not good as expected , so we predict LOLC will drop by 2-3 rupees
2. Major foreign fund is selling JKH for few days , we know that it is not over yet, so we predict JKH will drop 1-2 rupees
3. we saw the DIAL order book yesterday, there was a huge selling pressure , so we know that there thin or no chance that DIAL can go up
NOTE : above scenario is just a fabricated example.
so based on above factors , we predict tomorrow will be a red day.
of course i agree it is possible to predict, even possible to comment your prediction.then even possible to comment positives about what what went well (i told you this will drop , that will go up). and even possible to reasoning out why prediction went wrong and predict again with corrections.
but it has no value since those are not exactly prediction , those are just wild guesses(tomorrow will be red or green kind of so called prediction ).
You right about that if we can do so called prediction with a higher accuracy , then we will win. that is how exactly gamblers win in some days. but in long run , i dont know (unless you have some superpowers )