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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » All Share Price Index - ASPI

All Share Price Index - ASPI

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21All Share Price Index - ASPI - Page 2 Empty All Share Price Index is in Red Wed Aug 26, 2020 8:38 pm

Intrinsic


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
During last two days foreigners pulled out billions. 


Can anyone say WHY ?

22All Share Price Index - ASPI - Page 2 Empty Re: All Share Price Index - ASPI Wed Aug 26, 2020 8:45 pm

xhunter


Moderator
Moderator
USD to LKR again shows some upward trend
All Share Price Index - ASPI - Page 2 WMKzA8EReVTegAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==

23All Share Price Index - ASPI - Page 2 Empty Re: All Share Price Index - ASPI Wed Aug 26, 2020 9:14 pm

KavinduTM


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
3rd day of the August last week

A Red Day
ASPI :- 5335
Change :- (-27)

Overall Change for the week :- (-47)

24All Share Price Index - ASPI - Page 2 Empty Re: All Share Price Index - ASPI Wed Aug 26, 2020 9:26 pm

Intrinsic


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@xhunter wrote:USD to LKR again shows some upward trend
All Share Price Index - ASPI - Page 2 WMKzA8EReVTegAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==

Hi! xhunter !

24/8 -- 184.481 LKR/USD
25/8 -- 184.610
26/8 -- 186.326

Yes, there is considerable effect !

25All Share Price Index - ASPI - Page 2 Empty Re: All Share Price Index - ASPI Thu Aug 27, 2020 10:21 am

Intrinsic


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@Intrinsic wrote:
@xhunter wrote:USD to LKR again shows some upward trend
All Share Price Index - ASPI - Page 2 WMKzA8EReVTegAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==

Hi! xhunter !

24/8 -- 184.481 LKR/USD
25/8 -- 184.610
26/8 -- 186.326

Yes, there is considerable effect !


Month         Export      Trade deficit     LKR/USD (max)
April '20      277          - 840               193.56
May '20       602          - 407               190.52
June '20      906          - 161               186.78
July '20                                             186.06
August '20                                         186.15

(in million USD)
Couldn't find figures for July.
Sources: Tradingeconomy, Economynext & Exchangerate.org.uk

As per current govt policy of controlling imports, the trade deficit has come down to 161 i/o usual 800 levels. Covid must have had positive effect on this issue. Probably LKR will appreciate when our exports are bounced back to their normal levels.

26All Share Price Index - ASPI - Page 2 Empty Re: All Share Price Index - ASPI Thu Aug 27, 2020 10:37 am

dayandacool

dayandacool
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Intrinsic wrote:
@Intrinsic wrote:
@xhunter wrote:USD to LKR again shows some upward trend
All Share Price Index - ASPI - Page 2 WMKzA8EReVTegAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==

Hi! xhunter !

24/8 -- 184.481 LKR/USD
25/8 -- 184.610
26/8 -- 186.326

Yes, there is considerable effect !


Month         Export      Trade deficit     LKR/USD (max)
April '20      277          - 840               193.56
May '20       602          - 407               190.52
June '20      906          - 161               186.78
July '20                                             186.06
August '20                                         186.15

(in million USD)
Couldn't find figures for July.
Sources: Tradingeconomy, Economynext & Exchangerate.org.uk

As per current govt policy of controlling imports, the trade deficit has come down to 161 i/o usual 800 levels. Covid must have had positive effect on this issue. Probably LKR will appreciate when our exports are bounced back to their normal levels.


There is another side to this as well. Even though we are trying to be an export base economy with a trade surplus, controlling imports have it's negative impacts too. We do not manufacture enough raw material for completely ban some of the imports. For example, even though we manufacture garments, we do not completely manufacture the raw materials involved in the garment segments. Another good example is the ban on imports of maize. Since we do not produce the required amount of maize in the country, whole paltry sector is in trouble at present.

Bottom line is, it's always good to restrict / ban imports. But when doing so, the government should first take necessary steps to produce them locally or gradually reduce imports rather than doing it in a haste. 

Present Ban in imports will be short lived as this was a counter measure taken to avoid economic impacts of covid and to stabilize the rupee against a back drop of a rupee collapse in March-April. When eventually they ease the ban on imports, rupee could hit high again.

Just my thoughts and I could be wrong.

27All Share Price Index - ASPI - Page 2 Empty Re: All Share Price Index - ASPI Thu Aug 27, 2020 11:51 am

Intrinsic


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@dayandacool wrote:
@Intrinsic wrote:
@Intrinsic wrote:
@xhunter wrote:USD to LKR again shows some upward trend
All Share Price Index - ASPI - Page 2 WMKzA8EReVTegAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==

Hi! xhunter !

24/8 -- 184.481 LKR/USD
25/8 -- 184.610
26/8 -- 186.326

Yes, there is considerable effect !


Month         Export      Trade deficit     LKR/USD (max)
April '20      277          - 840               193.56
May '20       602          - 407               190.52
June '20      906          - 161               186.78
July '20                                             186.06
August '20                                         186.15

(in million USD)
Couldn't find figures for July.
Sources: Tradingeconomy, Economynext & Exchangerate.org.uk

As per current govt policy of controlling imports, the trade deficit has come down to 161 i/o usual 800 levels. Covid must have had positive effect on this issue. Probably LKR will appreciate when our exports are bounced back to their normal levels.


There is another side to this as well. Even though we are trying to be an export base economy with a trade surplus, controlling imports have it's negative impacts too. We do not manufacture enough raw material for completely ban some of the imports. For example, even though we manufacture garments, we do not completely manufacture the raw materials involved in the garment segments. Another good example is the ban on imports of maize. Since we do not produce the required amount of maize in the country, whole paltry sector is in trouble at present.

Bottom line is, it's always good to restrict / ban imports. But when doing so, the government should first take necessary steps to produce them locally or gradually reduce imports rather than doing it in a haste. 

Present Ban in imports will be short lived as this was a counter measure taken to avoid economic impacts of covid and to stabilize the rupee against a back drop of a rupee collapse in March-April. When eventually they ease the ban on imports, rupee could hit high again.

Just my thoughts and I could be wrong.

Hello Dayandacool,

Agreed! Thank you.

In order to save the local agriculture, certain imports must be controlled. It has to be done in well planned manner. As you can see the current situation of maize, turmeric etc.. It has to be based on supply / demand in each season, generally.

Local industries: Should ban whatever items that can be manufactured in SL in export quality.

Car imports can be selectively controlled for some reasonable period. The local auto manufacturers / assemblages will be benefited by doing so. But the Gosl will again lose their tax income too!

Garment industry: The current export value is not real. The effective garment industry export VALUE should be "export CIF - import CIF". If you say last year garment export was 6B usd, our real BENEFIT would be 2B because the balance 4B had been paid out to import piece-goods from China. You can't stop this unless we start our own quality fabric mills & trim factories. But starting good fabric mills is very unlikely to happen.

Since the Gosl is in severe debt crisis right now, they must control / ban imports to collect funds to service debts. Or else are they going to get more new loans to service the current debts ? Or selling out ports & airports ?

dayandacool likes this post

28All Share Price Index - ASPI - Page 2 Empty Re: All Share Price Index - ASPI Thu Aug 27, 2020 12:09 pm

dayandacool

dayandacool
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Intrinsic wrote:
@dayandacool wrote:
@Intrinsic wrote:
@Intrinsic wrote:
@xhunter wrote:USD to LKR again shows some upward trend
All Share Price Index - ASPI - Page 2 WMKzA8EReVTegAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==

Hi! xhunter !

24/8 -- 184.481 LKR/USD
25/8 -- 184.610
26/8 -- 186.326

Yes, there is considerable effect !


Month         Export      Trade deficit     LKR/USD (max)
April '20      277          - 840               193.56
May '20       602          - 407               190.52
June '20      906          - 161               186.78
July '20                                             186.06
August '20                                         186.15

(in million USD)
Couldn't find figures for July.
Sources: Tradingeconomy, Economynext & Exchangerate.org.uk

As per current govt policy of controlling imports, the trade deficit has come down to 161 i/o usual 800 levels. Covid must have had positive effect on this issue. Probably LKR will appreciate when our exports are bounced back to their normal levels.


There is another side to this as well. Even though we are trying to be an export base economy with a trade surplus, controlling imports have it's negative impacts too. We do not manufacture enough raw material for completely ban some of the imports. For example, even though we manufacture garments, we do not completely manufacture the raw materials involved in the garment segments. Another good example is the ban on imports of maize. Since we do not produce the required amount of maize in the country, whole paltry sector is in trouble at present.

Bottom line is, it's always good to restrict / ban imports. But when doing so, the government should first take necessary steps to produce them locally or gradually reduce imports rather than doing it in a haste. 

Present Ban in imports will be short lived as this was a counter measure taken to avoid economic impacts of covid and to stabilize the rupee against a back drop of a rupee collapse in March-April. When eventually they ease the ban on imports, rupee could hit high again.

Just my thoughts and I could be wrong.

Hello Dayandacool,

Agreed! Thank you.

In order to save the local agriculture, certain imports must be controlled. It has to be done in well planned manner. As you can see the current situation of maize, turmeric etc.. It has to be based on supply / demand in each season, generally.

Local industries: Should ban whatever items that can be manufactured in SL in export quality.

Car imports can be selectively controlled for some reasonable period. The local auto manufacturers / assemblages will be benefited by doing so. But the Gosl will again lose their tax income too!

Garment industry: The current export value is not real. The effective garment industry export VALUE should be "export CIF - import CIF". If you say last year garment export was 6B usd, our real BENEFIT would be 2B because the balance 4B had been paid out to import piece-goods from China. You can't stop this unless we start our own quality fabric mills & trim factories. But starting good fabric mills is very unlikely to happen.

Since the Gosl is in severe debt crisis right now, they must control / ban imports to collect funds to service debts. Or else are they going to get more new loans to service the current debts ? Or selling out ports & airports ?

Agree with what you have posted. Government will need some short to medium term funds by the means of foreign loans. Government will present the vote on account today and heard that the prime minister will present another resolution under the local treasury bills ordinance to borrow a sum up to 750 Billion by the way of treasury bills, a good indication of the continuation of present low interest regime or may be even lower rates because government will not buy T bills any higher when market liquidity is high. then comes the scenario where increased liquidity causing high inflation and foreign governments will have second thought when lending. they have managed to control inflation till now but future is a challenge.

29All Share Price Index - ASPI - Page 2 Empty Re: All Share Price Index - ASPI Thu Aug 27, 2020 1:07 pm

samaritan


Moderator
Moderator
The negative trend triggered by foreign selling will not last long as absorption has been good thus far. I will not underestimate ANC's capability to turn things around and make CSE an attractive frontier market in the region by year end.


_________________




The biggest risk in life is not taking any risk at all.

Intrinsic likes this post

30All Share Price Index - ASPI - Page 2 Empty Re: All Share Price Index - ASPI Sun Aug 30, 2020 12:53 am

KavinduTM

KavinduTM
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@KavinduTM wrote:Today is 21st of August.

According to my latest technical analysis on ASI, market will recover within one and half month. The uptrend is already started.

Hopefully ASI will reach 5728 (Almost recovered) before October 1st if things will go on like this without any disasters (such as 2nd wave of covid-19). So we can recommend this period as a full buy situation.

Also mostly next week will be a green week.But also there's like 1% possibility it to be a red week too.( I'm talking about the overall result of the week) So thinking on the more possibility, it will be around 90+. Which will make ASI around 5475. The worst we can expect in next week will be stuck in the same level. I'm sure it won't be red.

Today ASI                          :- 5382
At the end of the next week :- 5382 - 5475
At the end of September      :- 5728 - 5831

Consider all above are just predictions. So there's a chance to go them wrong. But it won't go wrong :3

GL guys. Happy Trading!

Prediction for last week of August went wrong. I expected between 0-90 points (+). But it was (-)62 points at the end of the week. ASI is so tricky and hard to predict. Also i noted few points why it went wrong for the last week. Still the targeted index for the end of September stands same.

For the 1st week of September, i think we will see few more bloody days and it should start a greeny uptrend asap.

Still analyzing and i ll update with more details sooner.

Good Luck.

31All Share Price Index - ASPI - Page 2 Empty Re: All Share Price Index - ASPI Sun Aug 30, 2020 1:22 am

fireshelter

fireshelter
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
affraid affraid affraid

32All Share Price Index - ASPI - Page 2 Empty Re: All Share Price Index - ASPI Sun Aug 30, 2020 7:56 am

xhunter

xhunter
Moderator
Moderator
@KavinduTM wrote:
@KavinduTM wrote:Today is 21st of August.

According to my latest technical analysis on ASI, market will recover within one and half month. The uptrend is already started.

Hopefully ASI will reach 5728 (Almost recovered) before October 1st if things will go on like this without any disasters (such as 2nd wave of covid-19). So we can recommend this period as a full buy situation.

Also mostly next week will be a green week.But also there's like 1% possibility it to be a red week too.( I'm talking about the overall result of the week) So thinking on the more possibility, it will be around 90+. Which will make ASI around 5475. The worst we can expect in next week will be stuck in the same level. I'm sure it won't be red.

Today ASI                          :- 5382
At the end of the next week :- 5382 - 5475
At the end of September      :- 5728 - 5831

Consider all above are just predictions. So there's a chance to go them wrong. But it won't go wrong :3

GL guys. Happy Trading!

Prediction for last week of August went wrong. I expected between 0-90 points (+). But it was (-)62 points at the end of the week. ASI is so tricky and hard to predict. Also i noted few points why it went wrong for the last week. Still the targeted index for the end of September stands same.

For the 1st week of September, i think we will see few more bloody days and it should start a greeny uptrend asap.

Still analyzing and i ll update with more details sooner.

Good Luck.
It is not hard to predict. it is impossible to predict. even individual share prices also impossible predict. we can just say tomorrow it will be red or green ., or that share will drop. since there are only two possibilities (RED or GREEN) , there can be only two groups who predict it and result will as predicted by one group. even a broken clock is right twice a day.

Kipling and Zahara khan like this post

33All Share Price Index - ASPI - Page 2 Empty Re: All Share Price Index - ASPI Mon Aug 31, 2020 1:42 am

KavinduTM

KavinduTM
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@xhunter wrote:It is not hard to predict. it is impossible to predict. even individual share prices also impossible predict. we can just say tomorrow it will be red or green ., or that share will drop. since there are only two possibilities (RED or GREEN) , there can be only two groups who predict it and result will as predicted by one group. even a broken clock is right twice a day.

Yeah like it is future, and yes i agree we can't predict but if we can't predict we won't be able to trade right?. Like always there's a chance to them go wrong. but at least predicting individual share prices is less harder.

Actually we all do predicting future prices when trading and investing. But as long as our rate of successful predictions is <50% we will win xD

Btw it is just human psychology. So i don't agree that predicting is impossible.

34All Share Price Index - ASPI - Page 2 Empty Re: All Share Price Index - ASPI Mon Aug 31, 2020 9:46 am

xhunter

xhunter
Moderator
Moderator
@KavinduTM wrote:
@xhunter wrote:It is not hard to predict. it is impossible to predict. even individual share prices also impossible predict. we can just say tomorrow it will be red or green ., or that share will drop. since there are only two possibilities (RED or GREEN) , there can be only two groups who predict it and result will as predicted by one group. even a broken clock is right twice a day.

Yeah like it is future, and yes i agree we can't predict but if we can't predict we won't be able to trade right?. Like always there's a chance to them go wrong. but at least predicting individual share prices is less harder.

Actually we all do predicting future prices when trading and investing. But as long as our rate of successful predictions is <50% we will win xD

Btw it is just human psychology. So i don't agree that predicting is impossible.
first of all,you have to understand the difference between "forecast","predict" and "wild guess". so called "prediction" is also done by gamblers at casino clubs.

I will give you one example of fact based prediction some what closer to forecasting.
Ex: fact JKH,DIAL,CTC, LOLC,COM has a bigger contribution to ASPI.
based events for predictions:
just assume following things happened in a single day:
1. LOLC reports out and ,it is not good as expected , so we predict LOLC will drop by 2-3 rupees
2. Major foreign fund is selling JKH for few days , we know that it is not over yet, so we predict JKH will drop 1-2 rupees
3. we saw the DIAL order book yesterday, there was a huge selling pressure , so we know that there thin or no chance that DIAL can go up

NOTE : above scenario is just a fabricated example.  

so based on above factors , we predict tomorrow will be a red day.

of course i agree it is possible to predict, even possible to comment your prediction.then even possible to comment positives about what what went well (i told you this will drop , that will go up). and even possible to reasoning out why prediction went wrong and predict again with corrections. 

but it has no value since those are not exactly prediction , those are just wild guesses(tomorrow will be red or green kind of so called prediction ).



You right about that if we can do so called prediction with a higher accuracy , then we will win. that is how exactly gamblers win in some days. but in long run , i dont know (unless you have some superpowers )

35All Share Price Index - ASPI - Page 2 Empty Re: All Share Price Index - ASPI Mon Aug 31, 2020 10:24 am

KavinduTM

KavinduTM
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@xhunter wrote:
@KavinduTM wrote:
@xhunter wrote:It is not hard to predict. it is impossible to predict. even individual share prices also impossible predict. we can just say tomorrow it will be red or green ., or that share will drop. since there are only two possibilities (RED or GREEN) , there can be only two groups who predict it and result will as predicted by one group. even a broken clock is right twice a day.

Yeah like it is future, and yes i agree we can't predict but if we can't predict we won't be able to trade right?. Like always there's a chance to them go wrong. but at least predicting individual share prices is less harder.

Actually we all do predicting future prices when trading and investing. But as long as our rate of successful predictions is <50% we will win xD

Btw it is just human psychology. So i don't agree that predicting is impossible.
first of all,you have to understand the difference between "forecast","predict" and "wild guess". so called "prediction" is also done by gamblers at casino clubs.

I will give you one example of fact based prediction some what closer to forecasting.
Ex: fact JKH,DIAL,CTC, LOLC,COM has a bigger contribution to ASPI.
based events for predictions:
just assume following things happened in a single day:
1. LOLC reports out and ,it is not good as expected , so we predict LOLC will drop by 2-3 rupees
2. Major foreign fund is selling JKH for few days , we know that it is not over yet, so we predict JKH will drop 1-2 rupees
3. we saw the DIAL order book yesterday, there was a huge selling pressure , so we know that there thin or no chance that DIAL can go up

NOTE : above scenario is just a fabricated example.  

so based on above factors , we predict tomorrow will be a red day.

of course i agree it is possible to predict, even possible to comment your prediction.then even possible to comment positives about what what went well (i told you this will drop , that will go up). and even possible to reasoning out why prediction went wrong and predict again with corrections. 

but it has no value since those are not exactly prediction , those are just wild guesses(tomorrow will be red or green kind of so called prediction ).



You right about that if we can do so called prediction with a higher accuracy , then we will win. that is how exactly gamblers win in some days. but in long run , i dont know (unless you have some superpowers )

Yeah good example but that "wild guesses" are out of the topic and only applicable to stock market gamblers. 

Daily ASI forecasting is nothing even when only 2 possibilities left. yeah like u mentioned before even a broken clock is right twice a day. btw when it is predicting individual stock prices the important fact is maintaining that accuracy >50%. That is possible af (without using superpowers, yeah)

36All Share Price Index - ASPI - Page 2 Empty Re: All Share Price Index - ASPI Mon Sep 28, 2020 11:56 pm

KavinduTM

KavinduTM
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@KavinduTM wrote:Today is 21st of August.

According to my latest technical analysis on ASI, market will recover within one and half month. The uptrend is already started.

Hopefully ASI will reach 5728 (Almost recovered) before October 1st if things will go on like this without any disasters (such as 2nd wave of covid-19). So we can recommend this period as a full buy situation.

Also mostly next week will be a green week.But also there's like 1% possibility it to be a red week too.( I'm talking about the overall result of the week) So thinking on the more possibility, it will be around 90+. Which will make ASI around 5475. The worst we can expect in next week will be stuck in the same level. I'm sure it won't be red.

Today ASI                          :- 5382
At the end of the next week :- 5382 - 5475
At the end of September      :- 5728 - 5831

Consider all above are just predictions. So there's a chance to go them wrong. But it won't go wrong :3

GL guys. Happy Trading!

Okay.. ASPI is pretty aggressive than predicted.
ASPI for today (September 28) :- 6028

Looks good.

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37All Share Price Index - ASPI - Page 2 Empty Re: All Share Price Index - ASPI Tue Sep 29, 2020 6:15 am

Kipling


Expert
Expert
Kavindu 
Some now say index rise too fast. When index crashing they never say drop too rapid. 
Please give your views. 
Thanks

38All Share Price Index - ASPI - Page 2 Empty Re: All Share Price Index - ASPI Tue Sep 29, 2020 8:57 am

KavinduTM

KavinduTM
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Kipling wrote:Kavindu 
Some now say index rise too fast. When index crashing they never say drop too rapid. 
Please give your views. 
Thanks
Haha yeah. Don't worry about that xd. Btw we had a good short term journey. I think it may have a correction before hitting 6500.

Kipling likes this post

39All Share Price Index - ASPI - Page 2 Empty Re: All Share Price Index - ASPI Tue Sep 29, 2020 9:42 am

samaritan


Moderator
Moderator
Positive measures have been taken by the Govt to attract investors (foreign & local) to have a vibrant stock market. I am in no doubt that they will succeed in this endeavor within this year.

In my opinion the ASI can surpass ATH within this year with healthy intermittent corrections. Cheers!!!


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The biggest risk in life is not taking any risk at all.

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40All Share Price Index - ASPI - Page 2 Empty Re: All Share Price Index - ASPI Tue Sep 29, 2020 11:07 am

shakthi1974


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
I think investors are reacting to Moody's rating downgrade!!

41All Share Price Index - ASPI - Page 2 Empty Re: All Share Price Index - ASPI Tue Sep 29, 2020 12:29 pm

samaritan


Moderator
Moderator
Moody & the pranksters show is over. ASI is expected to get back into green territory!


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The biggest risk in life is not taking any risk at all.

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