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කොළඔ කොටස් වෙළඳපොළේ වංශකථාව
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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » Don't Panic

Don't Panic

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1Don't Panic Empty Don't Panic Sun Oct 04, 2020 2:09 pm

stockback


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Don't be Panic....

this is good opportunity buy stocks....

what will happen if they say COVID19 test negative?

think US, India stocks market moving up. this is not big issue within few days everything will be ok...

be positive....

Junior investor and SN Capital like this post

2Don't Panic Empty Re: Don't Panic Sun Oct 04, 2020 2:13 pm

stockback


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
i like to get more ideas from senior members...

3Don't Panic Empty Re: Don't Panic Sun Oct 04, 2020 5:02 pm

Riz123


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
@stockback wrote:Don't be Panic....

this is good opportunity buy stocks....

what will happen if they say COVID19 test negative?

think US, India stocks market moving up. this is not big issue within few days everything will be ok...

be positive....
well said bro

SN Capital likes this post

4Don't Panic Empty Re: Don't Panic Sun Oct 04, 2020 5:49 pm

hiransilva23


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
It will start with a downtrend,coz some people tried to find a reason to make a downtrend(this is a really good chance for them)uptrend or downtrend will depend on panic investors.

5Don't Panic Empty Re: Don't Panic Sun Oct 04, 2020 6:51 pm

Equity Win


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
Don't sell your valuable shares, same brokers and manipulator try to buy low price. Don't panic

shan31 likes this post

6Don't Panic Empty Re: Don't Panic Sun Oct 04, 2020 8:40 pm

shan31


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
@stockback wrote:Don't be Panic....

this is good opportunity buy stocks....

what will happen if they say COVID19 test negative?

think US, India stocks market moving up. this is not big issue within few days everything will be ok...

be positive....
Yes. use this oppourtunity to make a killing by buying from who gets panic and sell cheap. You will get a good profit by selling what you collect tomorrow morning by end of the day or definitely before end of the week.

7Don't Panic Empty Re: Don't Panic Sun Oct 04, 2020 9:14 pm

abey


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
DONT be PANIC 2 DAY ONLY

8Don't Panic Empty Re: Don't Panic Sun Oct 04, 2020 9:20 pm

jaya


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@abey wrote:DONT be PANIC 2 DAY ONLY
 Probably up to 1.30pm

9Don't Panic Empty Re: Don't Panic Sun Oct 04, 2020 9:24 pm

stockback


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
country lock down and small area lock down is two different things.

Divulapitiya case does not much effect to entire country purchasing indexes.

every one will understand tomorrow evening..

10Don't Panic Empty Re: Don't Panic Sun Oct 04, 2020 9:28 pm

stockback


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
first question 
is that possible to sale everything? then who will be buyer..

unwanted panic create opportunity to some one else.  specially small people will make rich people.

how many times Circuit break happen in during March and May. what is out come end of September.

think...

11Don't Panic Empty Re: Don't Panic Sun Oct 04, 2020 9:44 pm

Eranga87


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
I remembered the Kandakadu corona case (positive corona cases 300 people ). at that time, few people thought the market collapsed again. but actually what happened???? market recovered within few times. most of the peoples collect stocks at discount prices.

again came the same scenario, the collector will be the winner and others will lose.

present govt. heavily expect the capital market for the attraction of foreign investments & FDI. govt. hope to increase foreign reserves and keep the stability of the exchange rate. Capital market is one of the key tools attracting foreigners. govt. will do the best thing.

<<<<>>>>
Don't Panic Icon_contact_pm

12Don't Panic Empty Re: Don't Panic Sun Oct 04, 2020 11:42 pm

ONTHEMONEY


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Hi all,

By looking at the sentiments in social media the following behaviors were observed.

1. How can I secure my profits?
2. How can I collect at low prices?
3. Can't I sell in the morning and buy at low?

The above feelings are common in general trading perspectives rather than investor thinking. As per my opinion, what we should ideally think as investors could be summarized as follows;

1. The magnitude of the COVID19 risk happened in Minuwangoda and other areas?
2. Any negative impact to the companies I have invested?
3. What companies will benefit, if the COVID19 spreads as a result of this?

I tried to find answers to above questions rather than thinking in a TRADER'S MINDSET. The following are the findings I found;

1. The magnitude of the Minuwangoda spread is relatively low when compared with the initial outbreak where the entire country was shut and all business activities had been disrupted. Sri Lanka has managed COVID risk effectively better than any other developed nation [First outbreak and probable second wave occurred]. Therefore, historical track record suggests that SL has necessary strategies to manage a probable third wave. However, there might hear market negative news sharing in next 2~3 days such as curfew impositions with identified locations, closing of schools, institutions, companies, etc. which could be considered as normal in a situation like this. All of these will push your limits whether to hold or sell shares at this juncture. Hence, there is not much to panic in this instance, instead BUY more as historical similar situations have recovered very quickly in CSE.

2. Assessing the impact of any COVID19 third wave to specific industries/companies, what I mainly observe are following. The companies in the following industries might experience further losses/cash flow issues if COVID19 spreads as a third wave across SL.

Hotels will further have to take the hit as the country may delay the opening of the air port

Banks once again would have to extend the moratorium extensions for selected industries hit with any possible third wave resulting more cash flow problems and non performing loans

3. We can highly trust and continue to have faith in the companies performed well during the COVID19 first wave period. For example, HAYC. DIPD and EXPO are the companies outperformed and exploited the opportunities better than any company in CSE, created by COVID first wave. Hence, we can further trust these companies to have more opportunities and exploit the opportunities far better than in the first wave with the learning curve. Hence, what I feel is above companies are COVID19 positively correlated companies. All other stocks which moved in CSE as a result of new Government policies or decisions taken favoring the industry as a whole.

Therefore, as investors we need to adopt to this new normal which we have to account the risk in our investment decisions. I strongly feel 95% of the population in the market would be thinking as TRDERS VIEW mentioned above. In summary, believe about the country to successfully manage this situation similarly as earlier and fill you buckets in large parcels with COVID positive companies and any other fundamentally valuable stocks more, if any PANIC SELLER wants to share his profit to you. 

Good Luck
Good Luck

Mithooshan and judecroos like this post

13Don't Panic Empty Re: Don't Panic Mon Oct 05, 2020 12:01 am

Eranga87


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Don't Panic H9S4QrIJDjiQQAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==

judecroos likes this post

14Don't Panic Empty Re: Don't Panic Mon Oct 05, 2020 6:49 am

sureshot

sureshot
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Eranga87 wrote:Don't Panic H9S4QrIJDjiQQAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==

NP is with fear now .....
I wish him not to be panic . 
He pumped and could not dump .. Rolling Eyes

will he dump now and collect at bottom again ?

15Don't Panic Empty Re: Don't Panic Mon Oct 05, 2020 7:24 am

INDY 500


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
Yes
As we all know he is the first person who exists before others

16Don't Panic Empty Re: Don't Panic Mon Oct 05, 2020 7:30 am

INDY 500


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
Investors who already sold in the overbought market wanted buy at low.
Investors who bought more with out realizing their profits, pleading others, not to Sell.

dayandacool and Junior investor like this post

17Don't Panic Empty Re: Don't Panic Mon Oct 05, 2020 9:31 am

stockback


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
ara ganu manussayage family eke anith ayata (duwa hara) corona naha first test eke.

that is good news...

we will see.....

18Don't Panic Empty Re: Don't Panic Mon Oct 05, 2020 9:34 am

ONTHEMONEY


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
ආයුබෝවන් සියල්ලටම,
 
සමාජ මාධ්‍යවල ඇති හැඟීම් දෙස බැලීමෙන් පහත දැක්වෙන හැසිරීම් නිරීක්ෂණය විය.
 
1. මගේ ලාභය ලබා ගන්නේ කෙසේද?
2. අඩු මිලට එකතු කරන්නේ කෙසේද?
3. මට උදේ විකුණා අඩු මිලට මිලදී ගත නොහැකිද?
 
ඉහත හැඟීම් ආයෝජකයින්ගේ චින්තනයට වඩා සාමාන්‍ය වෙළඳ දෘෂ්ටිකෝණයන්හි පොදු වේ. මගේ මතය අනුවආයෝජකයින් ලෙස අප සිතිය යුතු දේ පහත පරිදි සාරාංශ කළ හැකිය;
 
1. COVID19 අවදානමේ විශාලත්වය මිනුවන්ගොඩ සහ වෙනත් ප්‍රදේශවල සිදුවී තිබේද?
2. මා ආයෝජනය කළ සමාගම්වලට කිසියම් negative ණාත්මක බලපෑමක් තිබේද?
3. මෙහි ප්‍රති CO ලයක් ලෙස COVID19 ව්‍යාප්ත වුවහොත් කුමන සමාගම්වලට ප්‍රතිලාභ ලැබේද?
 
මම ට්‍රේඩර්ගේ මනසෙහි සිතනවාට වඩා ඉහත ප්‍රශ්නවලට පිළිතුරු සෙවීමට උත්සාහ කළෙමි. පහත දැක්වෙන්නේ මා සොයාගත් සොයා ගැනීම් ය;
 
1. මුළු රටම වසා දමා ඇති අතර සියලු ව්‍යාපාරික කටයුතු කඩාකප්පල් වී ඇති ආරම්භක පිපිරීම හා සසඳන විට මිනුවන්ගොඩ ව්‍යාප්තියේ විශාලත්වය සාපේක්ෂව අඩුය. ශ්‍රී ලංකාව COVID අවදානම වෙනත් ඕනෑම සංවර්ධිත රටකට වඩා effectively ලදායී ලෙස කළමනාකරණය කර ඇත [පළමු පුපුරා යාම හා දෙවන රැල්ල සිදුවිය හැක]. එබැවින්තුන්වන රැල්ලක් කළමනාකරණය කිරීම සඳහා ශ්‍රී ලංකාවට අවශ්‍ය උපාය මාර්ග ඇති බව track තිහාසික වාර්තාවක් පෙන්වා දෙයි. කෙසේ වෙතත්ඉදිරි දින 2 ~ 3 තුළ හඳුනාගත් ස්ථාන සමඟ ඇඳිරි නීතිය පැනවීමපාසල්ආයතනසමාගම් වසා දැමීම වැනි වෙළඳපල negative ණාත්මක ප්‍රවෘත්ති හුවමාරුවක් ඇසෙනු ඇත. මේ සියල්ලම මෙම අවස්ථාවේදී කොටස් තබා ගැනීම හෝ විකිණීම ඔබේ සීමාවන් තල්ලු කරනු ඇත. එබැවින්මේ අවස්ථාවේ දී කලබල වීමට වැඩි යමක් නොමැතඒ වෙනුවට කොළඹ ව්‍යාපාර වස්තු හුවමාරුවේ historical තිහාසික සමාන තත්වයන් ඉතා ඉක්මණින් යථා තත්ත්වයට පත්ව ඇති හෙයින් වැඩි මිලට ගන්න.
 
2. කිසියම් COVID19 තෙවන තරංගයක විශේෂිත කර්මාන්ත / සමාගම් වලට ඇති බලපෑම තක්සේරු කිරීමමම ප්‍රධාන වශයෙන් නිරීක්ෂණය කරන්නේ පහත දැක්වේ. COVID19 ශ්‍රී ලංකාව හරහා තුන්වන රැල්ලක් ලෙස ව්‍යාප්ත වුවහොත් පහත සඳහන් කර්මාන්තවල සමාගම්වලට තවදුරටත් පාඩු / මුදල් ප්‍රවාහ ගැටළු ඇතිවිය හැකිය.

රට විසින් ගුවන් වරාය විවෘත කිරීම ප්‍රමාද විය හැකි බැවින් හෝටල්වලට තවදුරටත් පහර දීමට සිදුවනු ඇත


තෝරාගත් කර්මාන්ත සඳහා තාවකාලික දිගුව දීර් extend කිරීමට බැංකුවලට සිදුවනු ඇත. ඕනෑම තුන්වන රැල්ලකට ගොදුරු විය හැකි අතර එමඟින් වැඩි මුදල් ප්‍රවාහ ගැටළු සහ අක්‍රීය ණය
 
3. COVID19 පළමු තරංග කාල පරිච්ඡේදය තුළ හොඳින් ක්‍රියා කළ සමාගම් කෙරෙහි අපට දැඩි විශ්වාසයක් හා විශ්වාසයක් තබා ගත හැකිය. උදාහරණයක් ලෙස, HAYC,DIPD සහ EXPO COVID පළමු රැල්ල විසින් නිර්මාණය කරන ලද කොළඹ ව්‍යාපාර වස්තු හුවමාරුවේ ඕනෑම සමාගමකට වඩා අවස්ථාවන් අභිබවා යමින් උපයෝගී කර ගත් සමාගම් වේ. එබැවින්ඉගෙනීමේ වක්‍රය සමඟ පළමු රැල්ලට වඩා මෙම සමාගම්වලට වැඩි අවස්ථාවන් ඇති බවටත්අවස්ථාවන් ප්‍රයෝජනයට ගැනීමටත් අපට තවදුරටත් විශ්වාස කළ හැකිය. 

එබැවින්සමාගම්වලට වඩා ඉහළින් ඇති බව මට හැඟෙන්නේ COVID19 ධනාත්මක සහසම්බන්ධිත සමාගම් ය. නව රජයේ ප්‍රතිපත්ති හෝ සමස්තයක් ලෙස කර්මාන්තයට හිතකර ගත් තීරණවල ප්‍රති ලයක් ලෙස කොළඹ ව්‍යාපාර වස්තු හුවමාරුවේ ඉදිරියට ගිය අනෙකුත් සියලුම කොටස්.




එබැවින්ආයෝජන වශයෙන් අප අපගේ ආයෝජන තීරණ වල ඇති අවදානම ගණනය කළ යුතු මෙම නව සාමාන්‍යයට අනුගත විය යුතුය. වෙළඳපොලේ ජනගහනයෙන් 95% ක්ම ඉහත සඳහන් කළ TRDERS VIEW ලෙස සිතනු ඇතැයි මට තදින්ම හැඟේ. සාරාංශයක් ලෙසපෙර පැවති ආකාරයටම මෙම තත්වය සාර්ථකව කළමනාකරණය කිරීමට රට ගැන විශ්වාස කර COVID ධනාත්මක සමාගම් සහ වෙනත් මූලික වශයෙන් වටිනා කොටස් සමඟ විශාල පාර්සල් වලින් බාල්දි පුරවන්නඕනෑම PANIC SELLER ට තම ලාභය ඔබ සමඟ බෙදා ගැනීමට අවශ්‍ය නම්
 

වාසනාව




Last edited by ONTHEMONEY on Mon Oct 05, 2020 9:38 am; edited 3 times in total

19Don't Panic Empty Re: Don't Panic Mon Oct 05, 2020 9:36 am

Invest-Wise

Invest-Wise
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Every other foreign market is working with worse corona situations and are performing well. Corona is a thing we will have to live with till the vaccine is available and its finally taken care of. We are blessed in SL to have managed it so well. It was a matter of time till we have another incident. This has happened twice before also. I am sure this will be under control soon. If you panic and sell you will regret later. There will be enough buyers waiting to buy. The same happened in the market last time also and turned positive in no time and people made good profits. So hold on to your portfolios and make this an opportunity to buy and average if needed. In all situations there are opportunities!!

Junior investor, RJ1010 and judecroos like this post

20Don't Panic Empty Re: Don't Panic Mon Oct 05, 2020 11:05 am

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Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
hadanna baha....

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