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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » What should I do - BUY or SELL during 22/10 - 26/10

What should I do - BUY or SELL during 22/10 - 26/10

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ONTHEMONEY


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Wonderer wrote:
@ONTHEMONEY wrote:
@ONTHEMONEY wrote:Hi all,

I have been asked by many about a market direction on following 3 items and wanted to share the view/primary research work did on those items

Month-end Credit Settlement calls by broker firms – Yes. There will be margin calls and till early next week probably. However, those funds will once again BUY more once the next month starts

20th amendment issue – This is not an issue at all since the Government is very much stable with majority

Increased COVID19 positive count – The market already made swings to COVID19 impact Globally and Sri Lanka and many burnt fingers. 

However, I strongly believe the situation is not a threat to CSE due to following

a) I spoke to IDH doctors and what they say is only 2 patients are critical, but all others are usual and fine.

b) If you look at the equation of all returned from middle east with COVID19 POSITIVE went back home safely after 14 days.

c) It is observed that Sri Lankans seems to have less threat due to BCG vaccine that all Sri Lankans get not like Europe or USA.

d)2,400 beds are almost filled but I spoke to SL army. It is a 24-hour job for SL army to make any incremental beds and it is not an issue to provide medical assistance in case of an emergency.

Hence, considering the above fact, I feel the Government is not planning to close the country. It is because the impact to the economy is not justifiable and the new development in countries like Japan, China, Bangladesh to live with COVID19 and ensure opportunities are exploited.

However, the ASI may dampened investor | day traders | swing traders’ interest for a very short period due to above which everyone might be greedy to take profits.

However, I strongly feel the market may come back stronger with following positive sentiments once everything above is realized by the investors together with following POSITVE NEWS which will come near short term.

a) Possible interest rate cut by the Regulators considering the second wave of COVID19 which has dampened the new projects.

b) Strong financial reports due to come into CSE of companies who are COVID19 friendly and exploited opportunities came through better than others.

c) New developments and positive policies of the New Budget for the year 2021.

d) The possibility of no impact or announcement of Living with COVID19 as the new normal. The Government recently issued a gazette to ensure health guidelines are met.


e) Increased WORKER REMITANCES after COVID19 drop in May-Jul recording YTD net positive growth which is a strong factor to stabilize the reserves of Sri Lanka

Therefore, what I suggest is to not to lose money which everyone incurred and experienced twice on 11th May and 06th October 2020.

If anyone selling on panic mode [specially the new investors whom are following social media], 


SELL the SHARES OF COMPANIES WHICH CANNOT DELIVER SUPER NORMAL RETURNS IN UPCOMING QUARTERS and VISE VERSA FOR BUYERS

Good Luck

Disclaimer - This is not a BUY or SELL recommendation. Please research before making any decision.

Hi all,

Hope everyone took some value by reading above by looking at the market today and going forward.

It is the COLLECTION TIME for FUNDAMENTALLY STRONG and COMPANIES WITH SKY HIGH GROWTH POTENTIAL.


I use BARBEL STRATEGY for EXPO and DIPD. 


Also 20% of my PORTFOLIO will be CIC and TKYO considering the SOLID FINANCIALS

Good Luck

Disclaimer - This is not a BUY or SELL recommendation. Please research before making any decision.
Can you explain a bit more how you are going to use the barbell strategy, taking EXPO and DIPD in to consideration (also CIC and TKYO)? What'd be in income side? Thanks.


Hi Wonderer,



To understand about the Barbell strategy, best teacher is Google. Just Google it, you will get loads of guidance.


For me, EXPO and DIPD are two EQUAL HIGH VALUED DIAMONDS in CSE if you compare any other stock in the market.


I have 7 CORE REASONS to JUSTIFY

1) Both companies have a HIGH CORRELATION WITH COVID19. I say both are COVID friendly stocks and recorded STRONG PERFORMANCE in 1Q2020

2) Both EXPO and DIPD will surely DELIVER SUPER NORMAL RETURNS than any other company in the market recording HISTORICAL HIGHEST EARNINGS AND GROWTH % by Mid NOVEMBER [2Q2020] and QUARTERS to come.

3) Both EXPO and DIPD are FOCUSSED on EXPORT ORIENTED BUSINESS which may not HAMPER with any new Government policy as the country now desperately needs EXPORT EARNINGS 

4) Both EXPO and DIPD are GLOBAL PLAYERS marketing its services in many countries where the AVENUES TO GROW is ENDLESS not like catering to LOCAL MARKET ONLY.

5) Both EXPO and DIPD have highly DIVERSIFIED production/service offices not only in Sri Lanka which minimize any adverse impact due to any second wave in Sri Lanka. Hence, supply chain disruption risk is minimal.

6) Both EXPO and DIPD are below 5 PE multiples.

7) Both EXPO and DIPD are AGILE to EXPLOIT ANY NEW MARKET OPPORTUNITIES far BETTER than COMPETITION which they have PROVEN 1Q2020.

Therefore, based on above factors together with MACRO FUNDAMENTALS and STRONG FUTURE GROWTH POTENTIAL, I have a STRONG CONFIFDENCE to allocate 80% ~ 85% of my portfolio with EXPO and DIPD

TKYO and CIC I accumulate only 15%~20% as I cannot trust much about GOVERNMENT LED POLICIES helping companies to GROW that may be inconsistent from time to time. However, since FUNDAMENTALS are STRONG I have allocated 15% ~ 20% with CIC and TKYO

Hence, I do not WORRY about DAY TRADERS or SWING TRADERS. I analyze the Medium Term EARNING CURVE ONLY

Good Luck



Disclaimer - Not a BUY or SELL recommendation. Do your own RESEARCH before making any judgement 

Wonderer likes this post

Win Win


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@ONTHEMONEY wrote:
@Wonderer wrote:
@ONTHEMONEY wrote:
@ONTHEMONEY wrote:Hi all,

I have been asked by many about a market direction on following 3 items and wanted to share the view/primary research work did on those items

Month-end Credit Settlement calls by broker firms – Yes. There will be margin calls and till early next week probably. However, those funds will once again BUY more once the next month starts

20th amendment issue – This is not an issue at all since the Government is very much stable with majority

Increased COVID19 positive count – The market already made swings to COVID19 impact Globally and Sri Lanka and many burnt fingers. 

However, I strongly believe the situation is not a threat to CSE due to following

a) I spoke to IDH doctors and what they say is only 2 patients are critical, but all others are usual and fine.

b) If you look at the equation of all returned from middle east with COVID19 POSITIVE went back home safely after 14 days.

c) It is observed that Sri Lankans seems to have less threat due to BCG vaccine that all Sri Lankans get not like Europe or USA.

d)2,400 beds are almost filled but I spoke to SL army. It is a 24-hour job for SL army to make any incremental beds and it is not an issue to provide medical assistance in case of an emergency.

Hence, considering the above fact, I feel the Government is not planning to close the country. It is because the impact to the economy is not justifiable and the new development in countries like Japan, China, Bangladesh to live with COVID19 and ensure opportunities are exploited.

However, the ASI may dampened investor | day traders | swing traders’ interest for a very short period due to above which everyone might be greedy to take profits.

However, I strongly feel the market may come back stronger with following positive sentiments once everything above is realized by the investors together with following POSITVE NEWS which will come near short term.

a) Possible interest rate cut by the Regulators considering the second wave of COVID19 which has dampened the new projects.

b) Strong financial reports due to come into CSE of companies who are COVID19 friendly and exploited opportunities came through better than others.

c) New developments and positive policies of the New Budget for the year 2021.

d) The possibility of no impact or announcement of Living with COVID19 as the new normal. The Government recently issued a gazette to ensure health guidelines are met.


e) Increased WORKER REMITANCES after COVID19 drop in May-Jul recording YTD net positive growth which is a strong factor to stabilize the reserves of Sri Lanka

Therefore, what I suggest is to not to lose money which everyone incurred and experienced twice on 11th May and 06th October 2020.

If anyone selling on panic mode [specially the new investors whom are following social media], 


SELL the SHARES OF COMPANIES WHICH CANNOT DELIVER SUPER NORMAL RETURNS IN UPCOMING QUARTERS and VISE VERSA FOR BUYERS

Good Luck

Disclaimer - This is not a BUY or SELL recommendation. Please research before making any decision.

Hi all,

Hope everyone took some value by reading above by looking at the market today and going forward.

It is the COLLECTION TIME for FUNDAMENTALLY STRONG and COMPANIES WITH SKY HIGH GROWTH POTENTIAL.


I use BARBEL STRATEGY for EXPO and DIPD. 


Also 20% of my PORTFOLIO will be CIC and TKYO considering the SOLID FINANCIALS

Good Luck

Disclaimer - This is not a BUY or SELL recommendation. Please research before making any decision.
Can you explain a bit more how you are going to use the barbell strategy, taking EXPO and DIPD in to consideration (also CIC and TKYO)? What'd be in income side? Thanks.


Hi Wonderer,



To understand about the Barbell strategy, best teacher is Google. Just Google it, you will get loads of guidance.


For me, EXPO and DIPD are two EQUAL HIGH VALUED DIAMONDS in CSE if you compare any other stock in the market.


I have 7 CORE REASONS to JUSTIFY

1) Both companies have a HIGH CORRELATION WITH COVID19. I say both are COVID friendly stocks and recorded STRONG PERFORMANCE in 1Q2020

2) Both EXPO and DIPD will surely DELIVER SUPER NORMAL RETURNS than any other company in the market recording HISTORICAL HIGHEST EARNINGS AND GROWTH % by Mid NOVEMBER [2Q2020] and QUARTERS to come.

3) Both EXPO and DIPD are FOCUSSED on EXPORT ORIENTED BUSINESS which may not HAMPER with any new Government policy as the country now desperately needs EXPORT EARNINGS 

4) Both EXPO and DIPD are GLOBAL PLAYERS marketing its services in many countries where the AVENUES TO GROW is ENDLESS not like catering to LOCAL MARKET ONLY.

5) Both EXPO and DIPD have highly DIVERSIFIED production/service offices not only in Sri Lanka which minimize any adverse impact due to any second wave in Sri Lanka. Hence, supply chain disruption risk is minimal.

6) Both EXPO and DIPD are below 5 PE multiples.

7) Both EXPO and DIPD are AGILE to EXPLOIT ANY NEW MARKET OPPORTUNITIES far BETTER than COMPETITION which they have PROVEN 1Q2020.

Therefore, based on above factors together with MACRO FUNDAMENTALS and STRONG FUTURE GROWTH POTENTIAL, I have a STRONG CONFIFDENCE to allocate 80% ~ 85% of my portfolio with EXPO and DIPD

TKYO and CIC I accumulate only 15%~20% as I cannot trust much about GOVERNMENT LED POLICIES helping companies to GROW that may be inconsistent from time to time. However, since FUNDAMENTALS are STRONG I have allocated 15% ~ 20% with CIC and TKYO

Hence, I do not WORRY about DAY TRADERS or SWING TRADERS. I analyze the Medium Term EARNING CURVE ONLY

Good Luck



Disclaimer - Not a BUY or SELL recommendation. Do your own RESEARCH before making any judgement 
Dear OTM
Very good & clear teaching to all. Thank You

Again requested all retailers and investors to capture these points and do wise steps.
DIPD has a good time to increase its price.

Wonderer


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
@ONTHEMONEY wrote:
@Wonderer wrote:
@ONTHEMONEY wrote:
@ONTHEMONEY wrote:Hi all,

I have been asked by many about a market direction on following 3 items and wanted to share the view/primary research work did on those items

Month-end Credit Settlement calls by broker firms – Yes. There will be margin calls and till early next week probably. However, those funds will once again BUY more once the next month starts

20th amendment issue – This is not an issue at all since the Government is very much stable with majority

Increased COVID19 positive count – The market already made swings to COVID19 impact Globally and Sri Lanka and many burnt fingers. 

However, I strongly believe the situation is not a threat to CSE due to following

a) I spoke to IDH doctors and what they say is only 2 patients are critical, but all others are usual and fine.

b) If you look at the equation of all returned from middle east with COVID19 POSITIVE went back home safely after 14 days.

c) It is observed that Sri Lankans seems to have less threat due to BCG vaccine that all Sri Lankans get not like Europe or USA.

d)2,400 beds are almost filled but I spoke to SL army. It is a 24-hour job for SL army to make any incremental beds and it is not an issue to provide medical assistance in case of an emergency.

Hence, considering the above fact, I feel the Government is not planning to close the country. It is because the impact to the economy is not justifiable and the new development in countries like Japan, China, Bangladesh to live with COVID19 and ensure opportunities are exploited.

However, the ASI may dampened investor | day traders | swing traders’ interest for a very short period due to above which everyone might be greedy to take profits.

However, I strongly feel the market may come back stronger with following positive sentiments once everything above is realized by the investors together with following POSITVE NEWS which will come near short term.

a) Possible interest rate cut by the Regulators considering the second wave of COVID19 which has dampened the new projects.

b) Strong financial reports due to come into CSE of companies who are COVID19 friendly and exploited opportunities came through better than others.

c) New developments and positive policies of the New Budget for the year 2021.

d) The possibility of no impact or announcement of Living with COVID19 as the new normal. The Government recently issued a gazette to ensure health guidelines are met.


e) Increased WORKER REMITANCES after COVID19 drop in May-Jul recording YTD net positive growth which is a strong factor to stabilize the reserves of Sri Lanka

Therefore, what I suggest is to not to lose money which everyone incurred and experienced twice on 11th May and 06th October 2020.

If anyone selling on panic mode [specially the new investors whom are following social media], 


SELL the SHARES OF COMPANIES WHICH CANNOT DELIVER SUPER NORMAL RETURNS IN UPCOMING QUARTERS and VISE VERSA FOR BUYERS

Good Luck

Disclaimer - This is not a BUY or SELL recommendation. Please research before making any decision.

Hi all,

Hope everyone took some value by reading above by looking at the market today and going forward.

It is the COLLECTION TIME for FUNDAMENTALLY STRONG and COMPANIES WITH SKY HIGH GROWTH POTENTIAL.


I use BARBEL STRATEGY for EXPO and DIPD. 


Also 20% of my PORTFOLIO will be CIC and TKYO considering the SOLID FINANCIALS

Good Luck

Disclaimer - This is not a BUY or SELL recommendation. Please research before making any decision.
Can you explain a bit more how you are going to use the barbell strategy, taking EXPO and DIPD in to consideration (also CIC and TKYO)? What'd be in income side? Thanks.


Hi Wonderer,



To understand about the Barbell strategy, best teacher is Google. Just Google it, you will get loads of guidance.


For me, EXPO and DIPD are two EQUAL HIGH VALUED DIAMONDS in CSE if you compare any other stock in the market.


I have 7 CORE REASONS to JUSTIFY

1) Both companies have a HIGH CORRELATION WITH COVID19. I say both are COVID friendly stocks and recorded STRONG PERFORMANCE in 1Q2020

2) Both EXPO and DIPD will surely DELIVER SUPER NORMAL RETURNS than any other company in the market recording HISTORICAL HIGHEST EARNINGS AND GROWTH % by Mid NOVEMBER [2Q2020] and QUARTERS to come.

3) Both EXPO and DIPD are FOCUSSED on EXPORT ORIENTED BUSINESS which may not HAMPER with any new Government policy as the country now desperately needs EXPORT EARNINGS 

4) Both EXPO and DIPD are GLOBAL PLAYERS marketing its services in many countries where the AVENUES TO GROW is ENDLESS not like catering to LOCAL MARKET ONLY.

5) Both EXPO and DIPD have highly DIVERSIFIED production/service offices not only in Sri Lanka which minimize any adverse impact due to any second wave in Sri Lanka. Hence, supply chain disruption risk is minimal.

6) Both EXPO and DIPD are below 5 PE multiples.

7) Both EXPO and DIPD are AGILE to EXPLOIT ANY NEW MARKET OPPORTUNITIES far BETTER than COMPETITION which they have PROVEN 1Q2020.

Therefore, based on above factors together with MACRO FUNDAMENTALS and STRONG FUTURE GROWTH POTENTIAL, I have a STRONG CONFIFDENCE to allocate 80% ~ 85% of my portfolio with EXPO and DIPD

TKYO and CIC I accumulate only 15%~20% as I cannot trust much about GOVERNMENT LED POLICIES helping companies to GROW that may be inconsistent from time to time. However, since FUNDAMENTALS are STRONG I have allocated 15% ~ 20% with CIC and TKYO

Hence, I do not WORRY about DAY TRADERS or SWING TRADERS. I analyze the Medium Term EARNING CURVE ONLY

Good Luck



Disclaimer - Not a BUY or SELL recommendation. Do your own RESEARCH before making any judgement 
Thank you OTM. Intension of my question was to know how you categorize the 4 stocks you mentioned. For example high risk/low risk, growth/income generating, long term/mid term etc. From what I understood, trust you categorize DIPD/EXPO as long term and CIC/TKYO as mid term. Please correct me if I'm wrong.
Thank again for the detailed response.

ONTHEMONEY


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Wonderer wrote:
@ONTHEMONEY wrote:
@Wonderer wrote:
@ONTHEMONEY wrote:
@ONTHEMONEY wrote:Hi all,

I have been asked by many about a market direction on following 3 items and wanted to share the view/primary research work did on those items

Month-end Credit Settlement calls by broker firms – Yes. There will be margin calls and till early next week probably. However, those funds will once again BUY more once the next month starts

20th amendment issue – This is not an issue at all since the Government is very much stable with majority

Increased COVID19 positive count – The market already made swings to COVID19 impact Globally and Sri Lanka and many burnt fingers. 

However, I strongly believe the situation is not a threat to CSE due to following

a) I spoke to IDH doctors and what they say is only 2 patients are critical, but all others are usual and fine.

b) If you look at the equation of all returned from middle east with COVID19 POSITIVE went back home safely after 14 days.

c) It is observed that Sri Lankans seems to have less threat due to BCG vaccine that all Sri Lankans get not like Europe or USA.

d)2,400 beds are almost filled but I spoke to SL army. It is a 24-hour job for SL army to make any incremental beds and it is not an issue to provide medical assistance in case of an emergency.

Hence, considering the above fact, I feel the Government is not planning to close the country. It is because the impact to the economy is not justifiable and the new development in countries like Japan, China, Bangladesh to live with COVID19 and ensure opportunities are exploited.

However, the ASI may dampened investor | day traders | swing traders’ interest for a very short period due to above which everyone might be greedy to take profits.

However, I strongly feel the market may come back stronger with following positive sentiments once everything above is realized by the investors together with following POSITVE NEWS which will come near short term.

a) Possible interest rate cut by the Regulators considering the second wave of COVID19 which has dampened the new projects.

b) Strong financial reports due to come into CSE of companies who are COVID19 friendly and exploited opportunities came through better than others.

c) New developments and positive policies of the New Budget for the year 2021.

d) The possibility of no impact or announcement of Living with COVID19 as the new normal. The Government recently issued a gazette to ensure health guidelines are met.


e) Increased WORKER REMITANCES after COVID19 drop in May-Jul recording YTD net positive growth which is a strong factor to stabilize the reserves of Sri Lanka

Therefore, what I suggest is to not to lose money which everyone incurred and experienced twice on 11th May and 06th October 2020.

If anyone selling on panic mode [specially the new investors whom are following social media], 


SELL the SHARES OF COMPANIES WHICH CANNOT DELIVER SUPER NORMAL RETURNS IN UPCOMING QUARTERS and VISE VERSA FOR BUYERS

Good Luck

Disclaimer - This is not a BUY or SELL recommendation. Please research before making any decision.

Hi all,

Hope everyone took some value by reading above by looking at the market today and going forward.

It is the COLLECTION TIME for FUNDAMENTALLY STRONG and COMPANIES WITH SKY HIGH GROWTH POTENTIAL.


I use BARBEL STRATEGY for EXPO and DIPD. 


Also 20% of my PORTFOLIO will be CIC and TKYO considering the SOLID FINANCIALS

Good Luck

Disclaimer - This is not a BUY or SELL recommendation. Please research before making any decision.
Can you explain a bit more how you are going to use the barbell strategy, taking EXPO and DIPD in to consideration (also CIC and TKYO)? What'd be in income side? Thanks.


Hi Wonderer,



To understand about the Barbell strategy, best teacher is Google. Just Google it, you will get loads of guidance.


For me, EXPO and DIPD are two EQUAL HIGH VALUED DIAMONDS in CSE if you compare any other stock in the market.


I have 7 CORE REASONS to JUSTIFY

1) Both companies have a HIGH CORRELATION WITH COVID19. I say both are COVID friendly stocks and recorded STRONG PERFORMANCE in 1Q2020

2) Both EXPO and DIPD will surely DELIVER SUPER NORMAL RETURNS than any other company in the market recording HISTORICAL HIGHEST EARNINGS AND GROWTH % by Mid NOVEMBER [2Q2020] and QUARTERS to come.

3) Both EXPO and DIPD are FOCUSSED on EXPORT ORIENTED BUSINESS which may not HAMPER with any new Government policy as the country now desperately needs EXPORT EARNINGS 

4) Both EXPO and DIPD are GLOBAL PLAYERS marketing its services in many countries where the AVENUES TO GROW is ENDLESS not like catering to LOCAL MARKET ONLY.

5) Both EXPO and DIPD have highly DIVERSIFIED production/service offices not only in Sri Lanka which minimize any adverse impact due to any second wave in Sri Lanka. Hence, supply chain disruption risk is minimal.

6) Both EXPO and DIPD are below 5 PE multiples.

7) Both EXPO and DIPD are AGILE to EXPLOIT ANY NEW MARKET OPPORTUNITIES far BETTER than COMPETITION which they have PROVEN 1Q2020.

Therefore, based on above factors together with MACRO FUNDAMENTALS and STRONG FUTURE GROWTH POTENTIAL, I have a STRONG CONFIFDENCE to allocate 80% ~ 85% of my portfolio with EXPO and DIPD

TKYO and CIC I accumulate only 15%~20% as I cannot trust much about GOVERNMENT LED POLICIES helping companies to GROW that may be inconsistent from time to time. However, since FUNDAMENTALS are STRONG I have allocated 15% ~ 20% with CIC and TKYO

Hence, I do not WORRY about DAY TRADERS or SWING TRADERS. I analyze the Medium Term EARNING CURVE ONLY

Good Luck



Disclaimer - Not a BUY or SELL recommendation. Do your own RESEARCH before making any judgement 
Thank you OTM. Intension of my question was to know how you categorize the 4 stocks you mentioned. For example high risk/low risk, growth/income generating, long term/mid term etc. From what I understood, trust you categorize DIPD/EXPO as long term and CIC/TKYO as mid term. Please correct me if I'm wrong.
Thank again for the detailed response.
Hi Wonder,

I feel, the above has the answer if you read carefully.

To be more specific, TKYO | CIC are short and EXPO | DIPD medium/long term.

Good Luck

judecroos and Wonderer like this post

Mr. X


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@ONTHEMONEY wrote:
@Wonderer wrote:
@ONTHEMONEY wrote:
@Wonderer wrote:
@ONTHEMONEY wrote:
@ONTHEMONEY wrote:Hi all,

I have been asked by many about a market direction on following 3 items and wanted to share the view/primary research work did on those items

Month-end Credit Settlement calls by broker firms – Yes. There will be margin calls and till early next week probably. However, those funds will once again BUY more once the next month starts

20th amendment issue – This is not an issue at all since the Government is very much stable with majority

Increased COVID19 positive count – The market already made swings to COVID19 impact Globally and Sri Lanka and many burnt fingers. 

However, I strongly believe the situation is not a threat to CSE due to following

a) I spoke to IDH doctors and what they say is only 2 patients are critical, but all others are usual and fine.

b) If you look at the equation of all returned from middle east with COVID19 POSITIVE went back home safely after 14 days.

c) It is observed that Sri Lankans seems to have less threat due to BCG vaccine that all Sri Lankans get not like Europe or USA.

d)2,400 beds are almost filled but I spoke to SL army. It is a 24-hour job for SL army to make any incremental beds and it is not an issue to provide medical assistance in case of an emergency.

Hence, considering the above fact, I feel the Government is not planning to close the country. It is because the impact to the economy is not justifiable and the new development in countries like Japan, China, Bangladesh to live with COVID19 and ensure opportunities are exploited.

However, the ASI may dampened investor | day traders | swing traders’ interest for a very short period due to above which everyone might be greedy to take profits.

However, I strongly feel the market may come back stronger with following positive sentiments once everything above is realized by the investors together with following POSITVE NEWS which will come near short term.

a) Possible interest rate cut by the Regulators considering the second wave of COVID19 which has dampened the new projects.

b) Strong financial reports due to come into CSE of companies who are COVID19 friendly and exploited opportunities came through better than others.

c) New developments and positive policies of the New Budget for the year 2021.

d) The possibility of no impact or announcement of Living with COVID19 as the new normal. The Government recently issued a gazette to ensure health guidelines are met.


e) Increased WORKER REMITANCES after COVID19 drop in May-Jul recording YTD net positive growth which is a strong factor to stabilize the reserves of Sri Lanka

Therefore, what I suggest is to not to lose money which everyone incurred and experienced twice on 11th May and 06th October 2020.

If anyone selling on panic mode [specially the new investors whom are following social media], 


SELL the SHARES OF COMPANIES WHICH CANNOT DELIVER SUPER NORMAL RETURNS IN UPCOMING QUARTERS and VISE VERSA FOR BUYERS

Good Luck

Disclaimer - This is not a BUY or SELL recommendation. Please research before making any decision.

Hi all,

Hope everyone took some value by reading above by looking at the market today and going forward.

It is the COLLECTION TIME for FUNDAMENTALLY STRONG and COMPANIES WITH SKY HIGH GROWTH POTENTIAL.


I use BARBEL STRATEGY for EXPO and DIPD. 


Also 20% of my PORTFOLIO will be CIC and TKYO considering the SOLID FINANCIALS

Good Luck

Disclaimer - This is not a BUY or SELL recommendation. Please research before making any decision.
Can you explain a bit more how you are going to use the barbell strategy, taking EXPO and DIPD in to consideration (also CIC and TKYO)? What'd be in income side? Thanks.


Hi Wonderer,



To understand about the Barbell strategy, best teacher is Google. Just Google it, you will get loads of guidance.


For me, EXPO and DIPD are two EQUAL HIGH VALUED DIAMONDS in CSE if you compare any other stock in the market.


I have 7 CORE REASONS to JUSTIFY

1) Both companies have a HIGH CORRELATION WITH COVID19. I say both are COVID friendly stocks and recorded STRONG PERFORMANCE in 1Q2020

2) Both EXPO and DIPD will surely DELIVER SUPER NORMAL RETURNS than any other company in the market recording HISTORICAL HIGHEST EARNINGS AND GROWTH % by Mid NOVEMBER [2Q2020] and QUARTERS to come.

3) Both EXPO and DIPD are FOCUSSED on EXPORT ORIENTED BUSINESS which may not HAMPER with any new Government policy as the country now desperately needs EXPORT EARNINGS 

4) Both EXPO and DIPD are GLOBAL PLAYERS marketing its services in many countries where the AVENUES TO GROW is ENDLESS not like catering to LOCAL MARKET ONLY.

5) Both EXPO and DIPD have highly DIVERSIFIED production/service offices not only in Sri Lanka which minimize any adverse impact due to any second wave in Sri Lanka. Hence, supply chain disruption risk is minimal.

6) Both EXPO and DIPD are below 5 PE multiples.

7) Both EXPO and DIPD are AGILE to EXPLOIT ANY NEW MARKET OPPORTUNITIES far BETTER than COMPETITION which they have PROVEN 1Q2020.

Therefore, based on above factors together with MACRO FUNDAMENTALS and STRONG FUTURE GROWTH POTENTIAL, I have a STRONG CONFIFDENCE to allocate 80% ~ 85% of my portfolio with EXPO and DIPD

TKYO and CIC I accumulate only 15%~20% as I cannot trust much about GOVERNMENT LED POLICIES helping companies to GROW that may be inconsistent from time to time. However, since FUNDAMENTALS are STRONG I have allocated 15% ~ 20% with CIC and TKYO

Hence, I do not WORRY about DAY TRADERS or SWING TRADERS. I analyze the Medium Term EARNING CURVE ONLY

Good Luck



Disclaimer - Not a BUY or SELL recommendation. Do your own RESEARCH before making any judgement 
Thank you OTM. Intension of my question was to know how you categorize the 4 stocks you mentioned. For example high risk/low risk, growth/income generating, long term/mid term etc. From what I understood, trust you categorize DIPD/EXPO as long term and CIC/TKYO as mid term. Please correct me if I'm wrong.
Thank again for the detailed response.
Hi Wonder,

I feel, the above has the answer if you read carefully.

To be more specific, TKYO | CIC are short and EXPO | DIPD medium/long term.

Good Luck

very useful conversation... thanks @onthemoney

ONTHEMONEY likes this post

ONTHEMONEY


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Hi all, 


The REASONS for RETAIL INVESTOR Mood SWINGS and Result is LOSS of WEALTH


"So far 186 from the Minuwangoda Covid-19 cluster have recovered & been discharged from hospital - Army Commander- adaderana.lk"


This types of news will normalize the market participants, specially the retailers to understand that the COVID19 is the new normal


"Another 259 tested positive for Covid-19. Among them 182 are from Peliyagoda Fish Market, 02 from quarantine centres & 75 are close contacts -Army Commander- adaderana.lk"


Again Retailers Panic and SELL.


Who wins - Big BOYS and BROKERS


Good Luck

judecroos likes this post

anges


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
dont buy or sell have a look on the side lines ! when the opportunity arises do buy ! just my thought i may be wrong

judecroos likes this post

cseguide

cseguide
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@anges wrote:dont buy or sell have a look on the side lines ! when the opportunity arises do buy ! just my thought i may be wrong
true

judecroos likes this post

ONTHEMONEY


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@ONTHEMONEY wrote:Hi all,

I have been asked by many about a market direction on following 3 items and wanted to share the view/primary research work did on those items

Month-end Credit Settlement calls by broker firms – Yes. There will be margin calls and till early next week probably. However, those funds will once again BUY more once the next month starts

20th amendment issue – This is not an issue at all since the Government is very much stable with majority

Increased COVID19 positive count – The market already made swings to COVID19 impact Globally and Sri Lanka and many burnt fingers. 

However, I strongly believe the situation is not a threat to CSE due to following

a) I spoke to IDH doctors and what they say is only 2 patients are critical, but all others are usual and fine.

b) If you look at the equation of all returned from middle east with COVID19 POSITIVE went back home safely after 14 days.

c) It is observed that Sri Lankans seems to have less threat due to BCG vaccine that all Sri Lankans get not like Europe or USA.

d)2,400 beds are almost filled but I spoke to SL army. It is a 24-hour job for SL army to make any incremental beds and it is not an issue to provide medical assistance in case of an emergency.

Hence, considering the above fact, I feel the Government is not planning to close the country. It is because the impact to the economy is not justifiable and the new development in countries like Japan, China, Bangladesh to live with COVID19 and ensure opportunities are exploited.

However, the ASI may dampened investor | day traders | swing traders’ interest for a very short period due to above which everyone might be greedy to take profits.

However, I strongly feel the market may come back stronger with following positive sentiments once everything above is realized by the investors together with following POSITVE NEWS which will come near short term.

a) Possible interest rate cut by the Regulators considering the second wave of COVID19 which has dampened the new projects.

b) Strong financial reports due to come into CSE of companies who are COVID19 friendly and exploited opportunities came through better than others.

c) New developments and positive policies of the New Budget for the year 2021.

d) The possibility of no impact or announcement of Living with COVID19 as the new normal. The Government recently issued a gazette to ensure health guidelines are met.


e) Increased WORKER REMITANCES after COVID19 drop in May-Jul recording YTD net positive growth which is a strong factor to stabilize the reserves of Sri Lanka

Therefore, what I suggest is to not to lose money which everyone incurred and experienced twice on 11th May and 06th October 2020.

If anyone selling on panic mode [specially the new investors whom are following social media], 


SELL the SHARES OF COMPANIES WHICH CANNOT DELIVER SUPER NORMAL RETURNS IN UPCOMING QUARTERS and VISE VERSA FOR BUYERS

Good Luck

Disclaimer - This is not a BUY or SELL recommendation. Please research before making any decision.

Hi all,

I wanted to REMIND everyone about the above PERCEPECTIVE I made about the market specially mentioning dates 21.10.2020 - 26.10.2020. Now it has become a reality.


I strongly feel the market has absorbed the C19 impact and now moving with positive vibes based on GROWTH STOCKS whom are FUNDAMENTALLY STRONG ENOUGH TO DELIVER SUPER NORMAL RETURNS SPECIALLY CORRELATED TO C19.

Good Luck

hiransilva23, Mithooshan and judecroos like this post

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