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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » EXPERT CHRONICLE™ » EPF/ETF - Poor invesment strategies...

EPF/ETF - Poor invesment strategies...

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Think9


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
I always had this question. Do the EPF funds get invested in good shares?? and do the department analyst do proper study in stock before buying ??

EPF/ETF are people`s money. I think they have done so much mistakes before and im quite shocked who advice to buy.

i can remember, EPF bought huge qty of SPEN at 220, then 180 level , again 167 , latest 135 . And now its 134.. Why such a poor investments ? I mean we all know SPEN and most of the hotels got a higher PE. I mean just using simple ratios anyone can understand that SPEN is over-valued until it falls to 130-135 levels.. How many additional no.of shares EPF would ve got more no of shares, if they bought at 130-140 levels instead of 180-220 levels..

And mind you, EPF invested on GRAN at 220 levels..

Related articles :

http://www.ft.lk/2011/06/29/epf-active-in-sluggish-bourse/

http://www.ft.lk/2011/05/25/epf-buys-1-m-more-shares-of-spence-hotel-holdings/

http://www.ft.lk/2011/04/21/epf-invests-more-in-aitken-spence/



Last edited by Think9 on Wed Jun 29, 2011 9:16 am; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : spellings)

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Post Sun Sep 04, 2011 12:20 am by UKboy

Just wanted to give my utmost thank to all of you guys (Think9, Duke, Chinwi, Academic, Aladdin, Xhora, econ, slstock, factfinder, Moneylover etc) who involved in this discussion. This is undoubtedly one of the best discussions I ever seen in this forum.
Well done guys. This is one of the very very few topics I read more than once & 100% deserved to be in the expert chamber...
( 1st time in my history I used all available + reps in a single day and these guys deserved it.)

Post Fri Sep 16, 2011 11:26 am by enthush

@xhora wrote:It was proven in a TV political discussion that when last year stock market grown about 90+% return on investments to EPF fund was only about 4% what a waste.


"Members of the Employment Provident Fund (EPF) will be paid the highest first ever interest rate of 13.75 percent, for their contribution with effect from 2009, the Labour Relations and Productivity Promotion Ministry announced.
This is a 0.55 percent increase above the previous rate of 13.20 percent for 2008."

know what ur writing before u get along the stream of misleading public..

Post Fri Sep 16, 2011 12:14 pm by enthush

@Think9 wrote:@ eeyohan : I think i ve to teach u how EPF and ETF works until we get retire.. but well........... u knw! i cant waste time..

but just an economy lesson :

when you HOLD.

Hold = saving = economy leakage. When economies is not circulating well, the growth is pretty less. That wats happening in developing countries. so it consumers / gvmnts resposibility to make sure things money get circulated .

example : By the time SPEN reach 300 , I can buy and sell in different levels and gain more than 1000% profits.. and if the gvt has done the investments properly Im sure they would ve developed the country more. At least to cover the huge loss gvt get from water board .lol. but in terms of business, i called it " Poor investment strategies " .


well in my point of view..its not economics that matters here the most, but fund management basics. according to u entire funds need to be managed in the form of a trading portfolio and for a retirement scheme i believe its a joke.EPF maintaing a trading portfolio for about Rs.100 billion and engaging in daily trading to seek gains as u suggested, will rock the CSE every now n then.needless to say if thats the case, they can easily make the market while retail investors will have no option but take the prices.
besides no retirement funds maintian a full trading portfolio. cos the theory has it, long term high return. if pension funds manage the funds the way u ask them to, CSE will be hell for retialers so will the return be for memebrs of the funds.

Post Fri Sep 16, 2011 3:22 pm by Think9

you have taken it in a wrong way.. im not sayin for a trading portfolio. you just have gone little bit out of the topic.

I`m sayin even a company or a institute invest on shares they should ve a proper plan. coz ASI is a curve . curve reach high and again fall down after 2 or 3 year or like that.. then again up.. so when your investing need to be much careful about the price of the share in particular and whats the stage of the ASI cycle.. If both indicated green that's the best or either one them should be there.

Anyway if u have time download SLIC annual report and check their gain on invest income and the shares they have invested. So far SLIC is one of ma best strategic companies when it come for investing.

Recent investments of SLIC : HVA / TESS . ..

Im not sayin EPF doing bad but they couldn have invested more wisely bn one of the institutes hold huge bulk of money. but one thing to say!! ! there new investments re quite impressive.


avatar

Post Sun Sep 18, 2011 6:59 pm by WildBear

@salt wrote:
@Academic wrote:
@duke wrote:I think holding companies should go around a PE ratio of 10 because they're just a holding company. That means it should come around half its current value.

Yes. Largely diversified holdings should be subjected to "Conglomeration Discount" in calculating their fair value. Thus PE should be lower.

This is not happening in Sri Lanka.

One thing, domestic market is too small for any product speclized comopny

conglomeration discount is widely considered as a market inefficiency, that means it should not really exist. Even if there is such a thing,it should be around 5% discount.

I think CSE is still too small and immature to apply all these sophisticated theorems...

investor1984

Post Sun Sep 18, 2011 8:05 pm by investor1984

@aladdin wrote:Guys i feel all of u are going on a wrong direction. A fund like EPF is not investing on short or medium. Normally they invest looking at the long run such as 5-10 years of profit realization. In that view what above discussed will not be valid. Many think that the decision made by EPF is wrong because majority is in the set of mind of look at the short run.

But one thing is bit suspicious to me. All the time the seller was same to EPF. May be a core incident. But who knows.

I report u decide.

Agreed , as far as we ( private sector worker ) contribute to these funds they dont have to worry , anyway the return they give to us are very dismal, so they dont have to worry about high returns ( typical government work ) , by the way we should give credit to these 2 funds as i think they saved the market from serious crashes , central bank is using these 2 funds as tools to calm the market when it is on verge of collapsing .

soileconomy

Post Sun Sep 18, 2011 8:18 pm by soileconomy

Y we are talking about negative investments .EPF has already doubled some of their investments .May be as a whole they are in a very safe zone.No one can make profits 100%.
When things go wrong we talk a lot and when they are right no one cares

Think9

Post Wed Oct 12, 2011 8:05 am by Think9

fire/http://www.ft.lk/2011/10/12/epf-buying-laugfs-no-smoke-without-fire/

Think9

Post Tue Oct 25, 2011 10:29 am by Think9

http://www.ft.lk/2011/10/25/laugfs-gas-has-last-laugh-at-epf/

lol..

Think9

Post Thu Oct 27, 2011 2:37 pm by Think9

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sinhala/news/story/2011/10/111026_share_market.shtml

""the employees' provident fund (EPF) lost nearly SLR 30 million ($270,000) as a result of such deals in the marker by the government. ""


avatar

Post Sun Jan 29, 2012 1:07 pm by WildBear

Interesting abstracts of a research analysis done by Verité Research on investment of Sri Lankan State controlled pension funds-



ETF has made a return of 26 percent on equity investments while EPF returns stand below 4 percent an Analysis by Verité Research shows that Employee’s Provident Fund’s (EPF)management of equity investments have made low returns in comparison to stock market growth for the corresponding period and in comparison to returns made by the Employees Trust Fund (ETF).

EPF’s investments in the stock exchange has underperformed the All Share Price Index (ASPI), and earned only one-fourth of what it would have earned if the same investment had been placed with the usual no-risk-low-return government securities, where 95percent of the EPF funds are placed.

The investment of the EPF funds is under the supervision of the Monetary Board of the Central Bank.

Historically, the main investments by the Fund have been in Government Securities. This is not without its problems as the EPF has been used as a cheap source of borrowing for the government, at the expense of reasonable returns for the workers.

A study by the Institute of Policy Studies titled “Designing Retirement-Income-Security Arrangements:

Theory, Issues and Applications to Sri Lanka” (de Mel, 2000)showed that the EPF returns had been negative in real terms over a workers career.In 2009, the Monetary Board invested 97.1 percent of the EPF Fund in Government Securities, with a return of 15.70percent, while in 2010, it invested 94.1percent with a return of 14.60 percent. At the same time there was a move to increase the investment in the stock exchange.

In 2009, only 1.3% of the Fund (Rs.9.8 billion), was invested in equities; but in 2010, there was a four-fold increase with 5% of the fund (Rs.43.7 billion) being invested in equities.

The Central Bank has explained this increased investment in equities on the basis that there was a need to diversify investments as returns to government securities were on the decline. The explanation, however, is contradicted by the outcome: the return to the EPF’s investment in equities in 2009 was 3.53percent and in 2010 it was 3.81percent.

If the same investments had been kept in short and long term government securities at the average yield, the EPF would have earned almost 4 times as much it did by investing in equities. In 2009 post civil war, the Sri Lankan stock exchange boomed, and in 2010 it became the best performing stock exchange in the world. The percentage increase of the ASPI in these two years was 125percent and96percent. In that light, how the EPF managed to garner returns of just 3.53percent and 3.81 percentis puzzling in the extreme, and should require a public accounting.

The Employees Trust Fund (ETF), which is managed by the Commissioner of Labour, has also made investments in equities. In contrast to the EPF’s return of 3.81percent the ETF made a return of 26percent on their investment in 2010.The loss to workers as a result of mismanagement of the fund’s investments in equities can be calculated at Rs. 71.2 billion in 2010 alone. More than the absolute amount, the scale of loss is a cause of concern. Where the quantum of investment had an expected market return 73.9 billion based on the ASPI of the stock exchange in 2010, the EPF earned only 1.7 billion: an adverse ratio of 43:1 (that is, if EPF had simply distributed its investment proportionately across all shares in the stock market without any thought or analysis, it would have earned 43 times more than it actually earned with its expert investment decisions).

The stock market is what economists call a “constant sum game”.

That is,the total long term benefits available from the stock market are equal to the actual increase in dividends fromthe underlying stocks. All deviations from this underlying increase in value are “zero sum”: that is, one person’s loss is another person’s gain. Therefore, the huge underperformance of the EFP investment is not without beneficiaries.

http://www.sundayobserver.lk/2012/01/29/fin01.asp

Redbulls

Post Sun Feb 19, 2012 5:09 pm by Redbulls

There are some news about EPF investments in CSE.
Now do we can think they have good statergy?

Monster

Post Sun Feb 19, 2012 5:18 pm by Monster

@Think9 wrote:http://www.ft.lk/2011/10/25/laugfs-gas-has-last-laugh-at-epf/

lol..
LGL voting share is currently trading at around Rs 24 - Rs 26. Unrealized loss from this transaction is nearly 50% from this transaction, which is around 800 million. Twisted Evil

avatar

Post Sun Feb 19, 2012 10:01 pm by thighrokker

EPF/ETF - Poor invesment strategies...  - Page 4 Sunday11

avatar

Post Sun Feb 19, 2012 10:15 pm by Fresher

EPF had entered at a wrong time into those investments. As a very long term fund, it can hold onto these for quite a long time.
Agreed that the unrealized loss is huge and whether price will reach previous levels or not is a doubt. But one has to remember it has made a lot of money as well.

I think everyone is talking about it's losses just like people complain about their losses but keep quiet and enjoy when they have a good time with rising prices.

avatar

Post Sun Feb 19, 2012 10:34 pm by aj

Remember what happened to the rupee value. The central bank were defending the currency with foreign reserves. But you can't do that every day, every week, every month. There is a limit. So what happens when the EPF buying stops...
Anyway who cares about the pension money of the fools.

econ

Post Mon Feb 20, 2012 7:56 am by econ

we need independent central bank. current central bank under kabral is just a another government department.

avatar

Post Mon Feb 20, 2012 9:54 am by WildBear

@econ wrote:we need independent central bank. current central bank under kabral is just a another government department.
Yes, now we have come to the real point. Kabral is a chartered accountant by precession. He may be suitable to be come the auditor general, but sure not to be the head of central bank. Sri Lanka has suffered and suffering a lot with wrong people in wrong position.central Bank governor should be derived within the bank staff it self or with experience in a body like IMF.He should be an economist rather than a accountant.what to do, poor Sri Lanka
,
Sad

rijayasooriya

Post Mon Feb 20, 2012 12:46 pm by rijayasooriya

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පසුබෑමට ලක්‌ වී ඇති කොටස්‌ වෙළෙඳපොළ බේරා ගැනීමේ අරමුණෙන් සේවක අර්ථසාධක අරමුදල්, කොළඹ කොටස්‌ වෙළෙඳපොළේ ආයෝජනය නොකළ බව ද එය මුළුමනින්ම අසත්‍ය චෝදනාවක්‌ බව ද ශ්‍රී ලංකා මහ බැංකුවේ අධිපති අජිත් නිවාඩ් කබ්රාල් මහතා ඊයේ (19 දා) "දිවයින" ට පැවසීය.

සුදුසු ආයෝජන තීරණ මත අර්ථසාධක අරමුදල් කොටස්‌ වෙළෙඳපොළේ ආයෝජනය කරන්නේ එම අරමුදලේ සාමාජිකයන්ට ඉහළ ප්‍රතිලාභ ලාබදීමට බව ද මහ බැංකු අධිපතිවරයා අවධාරණය කළේය.

කොටස්‌ වෙළෙඳපොළ බේරාගන්න අර්ථසාධක අරමුදලේ සල්ලි යොදන බවට මහ බැංකුවට නැගී ඇති චෝදනාව පිළිබඳව "දිවයින" කළ විමසුමකට පිළිතුරු දෙමින් මහ බැංකු අධිපතිවරයා මේ බව කීවේය.

"මේක සම්පූර්ණ අසත්‍ය චෝදනාවක්‌. නියමිත වෙලාවේදී අපි කොටස්‌ මිලදී ගැනීම සහ විකිණීම කරනවා. සමහර කොටස්‌ දිගුකාලීන ආයෝජන තීරණ මත වගේම තවත් සමහර කොටස්‌ කෙටිකාලීනව ගනුදෙනු කිරීමේ අරමුණෙන් මිලදී ගන්නවා. අපේ ඉහළ දැනුමක්‌ තිබෙන ආයෝජන උපදේශකයන් විසින් එම ආයෝජන තීරණ ගන්නවා. ඒක කරන්නේ පසුබෑමට ලක්‌වී ඇති කොටස්‌ වෙළෙඳපොළට තල්ලුවක්‌ දෙන්න නොවේ. මිල වැටිච්ච වෙලාවෙදී කොටස්‌ ගන්න ඕන. එය නුවණට හුරු කටයුත්තක්‌ බව ද මහ බැංකු අධිපති අජිත් නිවාඩ් කබ්රාල් මහතා තවදුරටත් "දිවයින" ට කීවේය.


http://www.divaina.com/2012/02/20/news32.html

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Post Tue Feb 21, 2012 9:02 am by enthush

@WildBear wrote:Interesting abstracts of a research analysis done by Verité Research on investment of Sri Lankan State controlled pension funds-



ETF has made a return of 26 percent on equity investments while EPF returns stand below 4 percent an Analysis by Verité Research shows that Employee’s Provident Fund’s (EPF)management of equity investments have made low returns in comparison to stock market growth for the corresponding period and in comparison to returns made by the Employees Trust Fund (ETF).

EPF’s investments in the stock exchange has underperformed the All Share Price Index (ASPI), and earned only one-fourth of what it would have earned if the same investment had been placed with the usual no-risk-low-return government securities, where 95percent of the EPF funds are placed.

The investment of the EPF funds is under the supervision of the Monetary Board of the Central Bank.

Historically, the main investments by the Fund have been in Government Securities. This is not without its problems as the EPF has been used as a cheap source of borrowing for the government, at the expense of reasonable returns for the workers.

A study by the Institute of Policy Studies titled “Designing Retirement-Income-Security Arrangements:

Theory, Issues and Applications to Sri Lanka” (de Mel, 2000)showed that the EPF returns had been negative in real terms over a workers career.In 2009, the Monetary Board invested 97.1 percent of the EPF Fund in Government Securities, with a return of 15.70percent, while in 2010, it invested 94.1percent with a return of 14.60 percent. At the same time there was a move to increase the investment in the stock exchange.

In 2009, only 1.3% of the Fund (Rs.9.8 billion), was invested in equities; but in 2010, there was a four-fold increase with 5% of the fund (Rs.43.7 billion) being invested in equities.

The Central Bank has explained this increased investment in equities on the basis that there was a need to diversify investments as returns to government securities were on the decline. The explanation, however, is contradicted by the outcome: the return to the EPF’s investment in equities in 2009 was 3.53percent and in 2010 it was 3.81percent.

If the same investments had been kept in short and long term government securities at the average yield, the EPF would have earned almost 4 times as much it did by investing in equities. In 2009 post civil war, the Sri Lankan stock exchange boomed, and in 2010 it became the best performing stock exchange in the world. The percentage increase of the ASPI in these two years was 125percent and96percent. In that light, how the EPF managed to garner returns of just 3.53percent and 3.81 percentis puzzling in the extreme, and should require a public accounting.

The Employees Trust Fund (ETF), which is managed by the Commissioner of Labour, has also made investments in equities. In contrast to the EPF’s return of 3.81percent the ETF made a return of 26percent on their investment in 2010.The loss to workers as a result of mismanagement of the fund’s investments in equities can be calculated at Rs. 71.2 billion in 2010 alone. More than the absolute amount, the scale of loss is a cause of concern. Where the quantum of investment had an expected market return 73.9 billion based on the ASPI of the stock exchange in 2010, the EPF earned only 1.7 billion: an adverse ratio of 43:1 (that is, if EPF had simply distributed its investment proportionately across all shares in the stock market without any thought or analysis, it would have earned 43 times more than it actually earned with its expert investment decisions).

The stock market is what economists call a “constant sum game”.

That is,the total long term benefits available from the stock market are equal to the actual increase in dividends fromthe underlying stocks. All deviations from this underlying increase in value are “zero sum”: that is, one person’s loss is another person’s gain. Therefore, the huge underperformance of the EFP investment is not without beneficiaries.

http://www.sundayobserver.lk/2012/01/29/fin01.asp


oh what a joke is this?? who writes these rubbish articles?????
problem in this country is journalists can write any nonsense and be untouchable.

ETF is talking in terms of unrealized gains which when i worked out on EPF portfolio is around 43%.
end of 2010 market value was about 60 B and cost about 40 B.

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Post Wed Feb 22, 2012 12:28 pm by gamaya

The stock market is what economists call a “constant sum game”.
That is,the total long term benefits available from the stock market are equal to the actual increase in dividends fromthe underlying stocks. All deviations from this underlying increase in value are “zero sum”: that is, one person’s loss is another person’s gain. Therefore, the huge underperformance of the EFP investment is not without beneficiaries.


So one day may be there could be an investigation as to who are the beneficieries?

Redbulls

Post Sat Mar 03, 2012 7:02 pm by Redbulls

THURSDAY, 01 MARCH 2012 16:53
The Ceylon Federation of Labour (CFL) has expressed concern on the future viability of the Employees Provident Fund (EPF) if the government continues to ‘fiddle‘with the hard earned savings of workers to bolster the Colombo Stock Market.

CFL President T.M.R. Rasseedin said in a statement that in recent times because of the government's own doings the Colombo bourse dipped to an all time low in transactions and the Government has rescued it from the doldrums by taking easy recourse of using EPF monies to artificially prop up the stock market.

According to its 2010 Report the EPF, has increased its investment in the Colombo Stock Market to Rs 43.7 billion in 2010 from Rs. 9.8 billion in 2009, the highest-ever increase in investment in equities recorded so far. It is a 400% increase in equity investment which is above the permissible limit, the statement said. "We demand the authorities to publish details of investments made in listed and unlisted equities so that the public would know whether the Government has helped out its business cronies by purchasing their shares far above the real value," Mr Raseedin was quoted as saying.
The statement said that the Government must realise that the monies in the EPF belong to workers and not to the Central Bank or the Monetary Board and they cannot be permitted to gamble with the savings of workers.

To ensure prudent investment of these funds that the unions proposed the setting up of a Tripartite Consultative Committee in the draft EPF Amendment Act. The proposal was accepted and the amendment was in fact drafted with the express provision that "The committee shall be charged with the functions of discussing and exchanging views with the Central Bank and the Monetary Board in matters relating to the appropriation and investment of the monies lying to the credit of the fund and other functions as may be prescribed by the Minister for the purposes of this Act."

Strangely this provision has been omitted from the amendment of the EPF Act that was passed recently. The CFL urged the authorities to set up a mechanism that would enable representatives of workers and employers to oversee and monitor the operations of the Fund. "We call upon all trade unions to agitate for such a mechanism as the actions of the fund managers are increasingly becoming unacceptable and threaten the future viability of the fund," the CFL said.
http://sundaytimes.lk/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=16496:calls-for-a-monitoring-mechanism-for-the-epf-&catid=79:analysis&Itemid=565

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Post Sat Jun 02, 2012 4:43 pm by Quibit

This article provides loads of information about poor investments strategies of EPF.

Chinwi

Post Tue Jun 05, 2012 1:24 pm by Chinwi

I do not think investing in stock market is a bad thing for a fund like EPF, IF it is done genuinely.
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මේගොල්ල දැන්ද මේවා දන්නේ ?
ගිය අවුරුද්දේ අපි කොච්චර මේ forum එකේම මේ ගැන කතා කළාද ?
අඩු ගානට එකතු කර ගත්තට පස්සේ නග්ගල EPF එකට විකුණන හැටි ; අපි එකතු කර ගන්න කන් EPF එකේ අපේම යාලුවෝ නිදාගෙන ඉන්න හැටි එහෙම. :-)

mra

Post Tue Jun 05, 2012 1:41 pm by mra

They are not into investment strategies. deals are getting a cross for certain big sharks own benefit. simple as that.

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