FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™
Dear Reader,

Registration with the Sri Lanka FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™️ would enable you to enjoy an array of other services such as Member Rankings, User Groups, Own Posts & Profile, Exclusive Research, Live Chat Box etc..

All information contained in this forum is subject to Disclaimer Notice published.


Thank You
FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™️
www.srilankachronicle.com


Join the forum, it's quick and easy

FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™
Dear Reader,

Registration with the Sri Lanka FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™️ would enable you to enjoy an array of other services such as Member Rankings, User Groups, Own Posts & Profile, Exclusive Research, Live Chat Box etc..

All information contained in this forum is subject to Disclaimer Notice published.


Thank You
FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™️
www.srilankachronicle.com
FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

Encyclopedia of Latest news, reviews, discussions and analysis of stock market and investment opportunities in Sri Lanka


Submit PostSubmit Post
ශ්‍රී ලංකා මූල්‍ය වංශකථාව - සිංහල
Submit Post



Latest topics

» GLAS will be winner with Super Gain.
by Thushara Ayya Today at 6:50 pm

» Ban of chemical fertilizers is a great news
by celtic tiger Today at 6:07 pm

» DIPPED PRODUCTS PLC (DIPD.N0000)
by ADVENTUS Today at 4:37 pm

» FUTURE of BROWNS INVESTMENT PLC (BIL)
by EPS Today at 7:56 am

» Sri Lanka Bonds Go From Asia’s Worst to Best After China Loan
by dayandacool Yesterday at 11:31 pm

» CSE listed companies...Failed or collapsed
by High-flyer Yesterday at 9:14 pm

» L B FINANCE PLC (LFIN.N0000)
by kanishkaecomm Yesterday at 5:17 pm

» කොටස් වෙළඳපොළ2020
by කොටස් වෙළඳපොළ2020 Yesterday at 11:52 am

» 14 May onwards -Road Clear to Enter one of the Asias Most Undervalued Stock Market
by kalu351 Yesterday at 6:34 am

» Plantation Sector
by කොටස් වෙළඳපොළ2020 Fri May 14, 2021 10:13 pm

» Company Financials or Group Financials?
by ronstyn53 Fri May 14, 2021 8:07 pm

» Banking Sector Analysis
by ADVENTUS Fri May 14, 2021 7:34 pm

» CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC ((LLUB.N0000)
by Bakkabwoi Fri May 14, 2021 5:24 pm

» Grain Elevators Earnings Review With Q1 Results
by EquityChamp Fri May 14, 2021 10:11 am

» What will happen tomorrow?
by Lakshman wijayawardhana Fri May 14, 2021 9:57 am

» Most Undervalued Shares
by Lakshman wijayawardhana Fri May 14, 2021 9:54 am

» Future of Talawakelle Plantation PLC
by කොටස් වෙළඳපොළ2020 Fri May 14, 2021 5:02 am

» NEVER GIVE UP BECAUSE: Stock market for beginners
by Asoka Samarakone Wed May 12, 2021 9:37 pm

» Make it your goal to stay positive in a negative market
by reyaz Wed May 12, 2021 9:01 pm

» Daily Foreign Transactions
by Pradeep90 Wed May 12, 2021 8:32 pm

EXPERT CHRONICLE™

ECONOMIC CHRONICLE

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP)


CHRONICLE™ YouTube

CHRONICLE™ NEWS PRODUCTS

FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™

Views & Reviews, Analysis, Evaluations, Discussions, Gossip and Hot Tips relating to Sri Lankan companies listed on the Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE)
Contribute




DAILY CHRONICLE™

Latest news and articles published in Newspapers, Websites, Blogs and other online news sites relating to business and investments in Sri Lanka
Contribute



ECONOMIC CHRONICLE™

This is a section that provide news, views, analysis, predications relating to Political and Socio-Economic factors and how such activities affect the Stock Market and other economic activity of the Country.

Contribute




EXPERT CHRONICLE™

This is an exclusive section for Expert Articles which will help member to share knowledge through comments and responses of the members. All members are allowed to reply and make comments to these articles.

Contribute


Submit Post


CHRONICLE™ YouTube

Youtube Videos and other visual presentations relating Stock market and other investment advise submitted by members or other contributors.

Contribute


Submit Post


කොළඔ කොටස් වෙළඳපොළේ වංශකථාව
කොළඔ කොටස් වෙළඳපොළේ ලැයිස්තුගත සමාගම් කොටස් ගැන තොරතුරු¸විශ්ලේෂණ¸සාකච්ඡා¸ කටකතා¸රසකතා යන සියල්ල අපේම සිංහලෙන් කතා කළ හැකි ‘කතා මණ්ඩපය’

Contribute

Twitter Feeds
POPULAR COMPANIES
A

ABANS ELECTRICALS PLC

ACCESS ENGINEERING PLC Hot

ACL CABLES PLC

ACL PLASTICS PLC

ACME PRINTING & PACKAGING PLC

AGSTAR PLC

AITKEN SPENCE HOTEL HOLDINGS PLC

AITKEN SPENCE PLC

ANILANA HOTELS AND PROPERTIES PLC

ARPICO INSURANCE PLC

ASIA ASSET FINANCE PLC

ASIA CAPITAL PLC

B

BAIRAHA FARMS PLC

BALANGODA PLANTATIONS PLC

BIMPUTH FINANCE PLC

BLUE DIAMONDS JEWELLERY WORLDWIDE PLC

B P P L HOLDINGS PLC

BROWNS BEACH HOTELS PLC

BROWNS INVESTMENTS PLC

C

CARGO BOAT DEVELOPMENT COMPANY PLC

CENTRAL INDUSTRIES PLC

CEYLON COLD STORES PLC

CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC Hot

CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC

CEYLON TOBACCO COMPANY PLC

CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC

COLOMBO FORT LAND & BUILDING PLC

COMMERCIAL BANK OF CEYLON PLC

CITRUS LEISURE PLC Hot

COMMERCIAL CREDIT AND FINANCE PLC

D

DANKOTUWA PORCELAIN PLC

DFCC BANK PLC

DIALOG AXIATA PLC

DIALOG FINANCE PLC

DIPPED PRODUCTS PLC

DISTILLERIES COMPANY OF SRI LANKA PLC

DUNAMIS CAPITAL PLC

E

EAST WEST PROPERTIES PLC Hot

EASTERN MERCHANTS PLC

EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC

E-CHANNELLING PLC

F

FIRST CAPITAL HOLDINGS PLC

G

GALADARI HOTELS (LANKA) PLC

GUARDIAN CAPITAL PARTNERS PLC

H

HATTON NATIONAL BANK PLC

HAYLEYS PLC

HAYLEYS FABRIC PLC

HAYLEYS FIBRE PLC Hot

HEMAS HOLDINGS PLC

HIKKADUWA BEACH RESORT PLC

HNB ASSURANCE PLC

HVA FOODS PLC

J

JANASHAKTHI INSURANCE COMPANY PLC

JOHN KEELLS HOLDINGS PLC Hot

JOHN KEELLS HOTELS PLC

L

LANKA ASHOK LEYLAND PLC

LANKA IOC PLC

LANKEM CEYLON PLC

LANKEM DEVELOPMENTS PLC

LAUGFS GAS PLC

LAUGFS POWER LIMITED

LOLC FINANCE PLC

LOLC HOLDINGS PLC

LUCKY LANKA MILK PROCESSING COMPANY PLC

M

MELSTACORP PLC

N

NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT BANK PLC

NATION LANKA FINANCE PLC

NESTLE LANKA PLC

O

ORIENT FINANCE PLC

OVERSEAS REALTY (CEYLON) PLC

P

PANASIAN POWER PLC

PEOPLE'S LEASING & FINANCE PLC

PIRAMAL GLASS CEYLON PLC

PRIME FINANCE PLC

R

RAIGAM WAYAMBA SALTERNS PLC

RENUKA AGRI FOODS PLC

RENUKA CAPITAL PLC

RENUKA HOLDINGS PLC

RICHARD PIERIS AND COMPANY PLC

RICHARD PIERIS EXPORTS PLC Hot

ROYAL CERAMICS PLC

S

SAMPATH BANK PLC

SEYLAN BANK PLC

SIERRA CABLES PLC

SINGHE HOSPITALS PLC Hot

SMB LEASING PLC

SOFTLOGIC HOLDINGS PLC

SOFTLOGIC LIFE INSURANCE PLC

SRI LANKA TELECOM PLC

SWISSTEK (CEYLON) PLC Hot

T

TEEJAY LANKA PLC

TESS AGRO PLC

THREE ACRE FARMS PLC

TOKYO CEMENT COMPANY (LANKA) PLC Hot

U

UNION BANK OF COLOMBO PLC

V

VALLIBEL FINANCE PLC

VALLIBEL ONE PLC Hot

VALLIBEL POWER ERATHNA PLC

W

WASKADUWA BEACH RESORT PLC


You are not connected. Please login or register

FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » When the seagulls follow the trawler!

When the seagulls follow the trawler!

Go down  Message [Page 1 of 1]

1When the seagulls follow the trawler! Empty When the seagulls follow the trawler! Tue Nov 03, 2020 10:38 am

Quibit


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
TRAWLERS AND SEAGULLS  +
CSE LESSON : ASSET VALUE IMPORTANCE ( Ex : SFL- and CSF)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

DO YOU KNOW THERE IS A BIG ISSUE AT CSE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Fact :Lot of people are trying to make CSE a Gamblers den.  They think they can put Rs 1 Lak today and make it Rs 1.2 Lak tomorrow.  

The famous French Footballer and Actor,  Cantona once said "When the seagulls follow the trawler, it's because they think sardines will be thrown into the sea."

TAKE A FEW SECONDS TO THINK ABOUT WHAT IT MEANS.

The Penny  share games played by certain Brokers and  Big Traders + MANIPULATIVE SMART LOOKING POSTS/PROMOTIONS  by the "NEW GURUS"  at Youtube , Whatapp , Facebook , Twitter and Forums  are making a MOCKERY OF CSE NOT AS  INVESTMENT VENUE BUT A GAMBLERS DEN.

Even bigger issue is, these 60% or so New  CDS Accounts  are following  the above mentioned Promotional "TRAWLERS" to get "Sardines" ( Shares)  thrown at them to make quick money without THINKING or  UNDERSTANDING  CSE AND SHARES HAVE VALUATIONS.  When Fish and Parippu have a value, so does shares.
Don't forget it.

Most people when they make some money from a successful day trade   following one of these Herd run shares promoted by so called "Gurus" , they think they can do it again and again. and make money at CSE everyday.  So they become slaves of these Trawler "Gurus" .

REAL CASE: There was guy  I recently spent multi hour to help  who got once got caught to Promoters and Bought BLI at Rs  150.
Now BLI Rs 9 and  actually is the biggest troubled finance company at CSE right now.  

Think about the value drop from Rs 150 to 9  for a minute Wink

I am sure, if BLI start running after some promotion , people will chase it and value it to Rs 20 and 30 ect etc. Where as the MAX fundamental value I can give for BLI at this time  is Rs 10.Actually that is too expensive too provided that they are making losses and in deep trouble.  Fair value is about Rs 7-8.  They will need to eventually amalgamate with some company or go for massive Right  issue or Private placement for it to be saved.

POINT : At one time BLI was trading at Rs 150. Gurus were promoting it to Rs 200 etc. Now Rs 9.

One time REEF was Rs100,  Now Rs  9.
GREG was Rs 150 +. Now Rs ???

DO YOU GET MY POINT ?

STOP BEING A SEAGULL AND STOP FOLLOWING TRAWLERS.

Instead understand what VALUE IS  as most people are Gambling with luck now at CSE and not investing .

SOONER THAN LATER YOU ARE GOING TO GET BURNT BIG TIME CHASING OVERVALUED SHARES. All is fun until the "Crab is in  the pot while water is not boiling" Wink

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

ASSET VALUE EXAMPLE : SFL AND CSF AMALGAMATION

SFL ( Sinhaputhra Finance)  and CSF ( Nation Lanka Finance) are planning to merge  to meet Core capital requirements of CB. They are seeking Central Bank advice for VALUATIONS for each  company for this Amalgamation to go ahead. When this happens , final surviving entity will be SFL ( CSF will be part of SFL)

IF YOU READ CAREFULLY. IT PROVES THAT FOR REAL STOCK MARKET TRANSACTIONS VALUE IS VERY IMPORTANT . Some people smart promote or demote  ( the Trawlers ) to distorts value to pump or dump shares to the SEAGULLS who follow.  I asked some logical questions on EXPO in my last post ?  Can someone answer them ?  

When nobody wanted , I highlighted VALUE for RCL at Rs 55 as an investment. Now at Rs 120 promoters started promoting.

RWSL at Rs 2 ( now some trying to value it to Rs 12-14 !)
CIND at Rs 30 ( now when it went to  Rs 75 some say it worth Rs 100)
CDB at Rs 40 (that was years ago )

UNDERSTAND THE DIFFERENCE OF UNDERSTADING UNDEVALUE AND OVERVALUE.

Back to SFL and CSF
~~~~

I saw some people trying to value CSF at Rs 2 using this opportunity to pump and dump. ( now trading at Rs 1.1)

SFL NAV is about  Rs 13
( Trading at Rs 10 for SFL.N and SFL.P at Rs 6,2)
CSF NAV is about Rs 0.7

Both these shares have been manipulated in the past to high values  like SFL to Rs 25+ etc and CSF Rs 2 +.  

But what I can say now is , SFL is  trading at a bigger Discount to asset value very much  more than CSF.  ( as you can see above)  

So what is the real valuation Central bank will use to value these 2 companies?  I don't know. Actually, they can use many models.

But I will use the simplest of them so  all of you can understand and LEARN TO VALUE SOMETHING IN VERY SIMPLISTIC MANNER.

More than many other sectors, BANK AND FINANCE rely on Asset value ( Ofcourse Earnings,  cash flow, management, future growth dividends , financial ratios  etc etc etc matters too)

If am to fairly value CSF on Assets itself
( not looking at anything else) , I will use a multiplier of 1.4-1.5.

So CSF NAV Rs 0.7 X 1.5 = Rs 1.1  
( actually that is the present trading price of CSF)

If I use  the same multiple of 1.5 for SFL ,
SFL should be trading at about Rs 20 !

This also proves what I said before  that SFL is valued more than CSF on assets and present market price.

Even if CB wants to value CSF at Rs 1.5 ( which is the maximum I can think of using a multiplier of 2) , then similarly SFL should be valued at Rs 25+ ( but now trading at Rs 10)

Summary :

1) Don't get caught to promotions saying CSF can be valued at
Rs 2-3.  It can't be and shouldn't be.

2) Please note that  Share valuation is very complicated. It not simple as above. Depending on the Company, Size,  Sector its in, Management capacity,   Past and Future growth , dividend policy, balance sheets,  cash flow etc etc things can change.

So don't use multiplier of 1.5 or 2 for every thing.
Asset value is also not everything. Its only one thing.
If you try this with NEST, LLUB or CTC , you are going to get a shock !  Do it as an exercise and see Wink  

If I value CDB using same model ,  CDB should be about Rs 250 using multiplier of  1.5!

All I can say is CDB is massively undervalued now  but nobody chases or care about such. People follow Trawlers to chase after smaller prices overvalued shares to push price up and dump to make money in a day.

Don't forget what happened to
BLI  from Rs 150 to Rs 9  
REEF from Rs 100 tp Rs 9.
DPL from Rs 140 Rs 7

chasing overvalued shares in short term.

~~~~~~~~~~~

PLANTATION SHARES :
~~~

Please do go read my previous posts on the Plantation topic.
ALSO THE WARNING ABOUT CERTAIN PLANTATION SHARES.

Btw, I did talk about KVAL last time when it was Rs 78  for a TRADE. Then the very next day it hit Rs 88. With Covid sell off, it came down in price again. You had a chance to buy it again for Rs 74-75 even!  

Now it back to Rs 84.
If today the interest remains, this can touch Rs 88-90.
Like I said if Sept report  is good ( I expect such), this can go higher.
But today , the short term target to see is whether it can clear Rs 88-90 or not.

So if you trading know the difference on time of entry ( which was at Rs 75-80 not chasing high).   For investment on KVAL, I need to see Sept report.

GOOD LUCK

copied.
https://www.facebook.com/1474668656168990/posts/2452064425096070/?d=n

`When the seagulls follow the trawler, it is because they think https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/when-the-seagulls-follow-the-trawler-it-is-because-they-think-sardines-will-be-thrown-into-the-sea-1613641.html

dayandacool, xhunter and geesura like this post

Back to top  Message [Page 1 of 1]

Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum