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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000)

EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000)

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101EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 6 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Mon Nov 09, 2020 2:40 pm

Hope123


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Cannot understand of this share. It's not letting price to move higher either lower. If this pattern continuing in this manner, feel this would go along. Whatever it is, this is being consolidating well around 28. Due to the momentum contraction it seems price might go further up and up.

102EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 6 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Mon Nov 09, 2020 2:41 pm

Master D


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
They have increased their NAV by almost 50% , as a service company this is unimaginable growth at this scale.


Annualized EPS =7.5
PE of 6 would bring this to 45.

Market PE is 10 now. EXPO is undervalued as I see could see now.
Waiting for some broker to do some deep research and publish

Mithooshan and Vishwanarth like this post

103EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 6 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Mon Nov 09, 2020 2:45 pm

Vishwanarth


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Master D wrote:They have increased their NAV by almost 50% , as a service company this is unimaginable growth at this scale.


Annualized EPS =7.5
PE of 6 would bring this to 45.

Market PE is 10 now. EXPO is undervalued as I see could see now.
Some are still not aware report was given. Today evening many will go through and analysis.
Waiting for some broker to do some deep research and publish

Till last 25 minutes buying was done. Let's see this week how this cross over 30 mile post 😀



Last edited by Vishwanarth on Mon Nov 09, 2020 2:46 pm; edited 1 time in total

104EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 6 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Mon Nov 09, 2020 2:46 pm

subash81


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Mithooshan wrote:Traded Volume 57Mn (18.5%)
Total Free Float 307Mn

Almost 95% above Rs.28 !
Estimated turn over well above Rs.1.5Bn.


This is pure buying. We can expect something good this week.
I find it difficult to predict a price but the day ended bullish.

Yes initially 29/30, then controlled buying at 28
Once collection finish head to 40+

105EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 6 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Mon Nov 09, 2020 2:48 pm

Vishwanarth


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@subash81 wrote:
@Mithooshan wrote:Traded Volume 57Mn (18.5%)
Total Free Float 307Mn

Almost 95% above Rs.28 !
Estimated turn over well above Rs.1.5Bn.


This is pure buying. We can expect something good this week.
I find it difficult to predict a price but the day ended bullish.

Yes initially 29/30, then controlled buying at 28
Once collection finish head to 40+

Today buying was settled within 28 to have some rest. Today morning whole market was lagging that why got slowed.

106EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 6 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Mon Nov 09, 2020 2:52 pm

geesura

geesura
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@subash81 wrote:
@Mithooshan wrote:Traded Volume 57Mn (18.5%)
Total Free Float 307Mn

Almost 95% above Rs.28 !
Estimated turn over well above Rs.1.5Bn.


This is pure buying. We can expect something good this week.
I find it difficult to predict a price but the day ended bullish.

Yes initially 29/30, then controlled buying at 28
Once collection finish head to 40+
even 27 is possible for collection after that 40+. it is good if this gets a strong grip at this point cuz instant noodles is not good for health.even rcl came back..so slow &steady growth is good

107EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 6 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Mon Nov 09, 2020 3:11 pm

XXX


Stock Trader
any news on dividend?

108EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 6 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Mon Nov 09, 2020 3:16 pm

Vishwanarth


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Received calls from some day trading friends. They didn't know even reports were out.
Since today being a first office day after couple of week lockdown Colombo some were unable to keep in touch CSE due to work load. They will join this week.

Mithooshan likes this post

109EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 6 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Mon Nov 09, 2020 6:11 pm

samaritan


Moderator
Moderator
Expolanka Holdings PLC is a diversified conglomerate with interests in logistics, leisure and ventures with a global presence in 20 countries and over 50 cities.


For diversified holdings the sector PE is around 14. (correct me if i am wrong).
So, multiplying the estimated annualized eps by sector PE its unbelievable.


Even with a discount of 50% (worse case scenario) this should touch 50/=.
Shocking but true.


May be a jackpot!EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 6 Icon_biggrin

EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 6 0?e=1607558400&v=beta&t=xYRoskYWCpsM0JBYHIyZZAC2RzmJgu8Dz6W-8zVql9w


_________________




The biggest risk in life is not taking any risk at all.

Captain, Mithooshan, Detective and Vishwanarth like this post

110EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 6 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Mon Nov 09, 2020 7:34 pm

Hope123


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@samaritan wrote:Expolanka Holdings PLC is a diversified conglomerate with interests in logistics, leisure and ventures with a global presence in 20 countries and over 50 cities.


For diversified holdings the sector PE is around 14. (correct me if i am wrong).
So, multiplying the estimated annualized eps by sector PE its unbelievable.


Even with a discount of 50% (worse case scenario) this should touch 50/=.
Shocking but true.


May be a jackpot!EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 6 Icon_biggrin


While on it's way to the desired target, this would give plenty of opportunities for trading. This might be the popular stock  among the crowd for a long time. Sometimes tomorrow also start with a Gap-up, like the way it happen today. 
 
EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 6 0?e=1607558400&v=beta&t=xYRoskYWCpsM0JBYHIyZZAC2RzmJgu8Dz6W-8zVql9w

Mithooshan and nish84 like this post

111EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 6 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Mon Nov 09, 2020 7:43 pm

Captain


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Below in the new increased shareholding / New Entrance to the EXPO, see any abody u knowing is there

SEYLAN BANK PLC/ARRC CAPITAL (PVT) LTD             9,675,118 0.49%
MR. S.N.P. PALIHENA & MRS. A. S. PALIHENA             6,000,000 0.31%
MR. P. MURALITHARAN             5,700,000 0.29%
MR. K.U.D. SILVA             4,736,041 0.24%
MR. S.J. AMARASEKERA             4,250,000 0.22%
PEOPLE’S LEASING & FINANCE PLC/HI LINE TRADING (PVT) LTD              3,600,000 0.19%
JN LANKA HOLDINGS COMPANY (PVT) LTD             3,250,010 0.24%
HATTON NATIONAL BANK PLC- ASTRUE ALPHA FUND              929,646 0.19%
MRS. N.K. SAMARAWEERA             3,685,000 0.19%
MRS. K.J.A.N. SANGAKKARA             3,500,000 0.18%
HOTEL INTERNATIONAL (PRIVATE) LIMITED             3,411,528 0.17%
MR. V. SUNILGAVASKER             3,000,000 0.15%

Mithooshan, geesura and KingMaker2020 like this post

112EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 6 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Mon Nov 09, 2020 8:07 pm

Mithooshan


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Captain wrote:Below in the new increased shareholding / New Entrance to the EXPO, see any abody u knowing is there

SEYLAN BANK PLC/ARRC CAPITAL (PVT) LTD             9,675,118 0.49%
MR. S.N.P. PALIHENA & MRS. A. S. PALIHENA             6,000,000 0.31%
MR. P. MURALITHARAN             5,700,000 0.29%
MR. K.U.D. SILVA             4,736,041 0.24%
MR. S.J. AMARASEKERA             4,250,000 0.22%
PEOPLE’S LEASING & FINANCE PLC/HI LINE TRADING (PVT) LTD              3,600,000 0.19%
JN LANKA HOLDINGS COMPANY (PVT) LTD             3,250,010 0.24%
HATTON NATIONAL BANK PLC- ASTRUE ALPHA FUND              929,646 0.19%
MRS. N.K. SAMARAWEERA             3,685,000 0.19%
MRS. K.J.A.N. SANGAKKARA             3,500,000 0.18%
HOTEL INTERNATIONAL (PRIVATE) LIMITED             3,411,528 0.17%
MR. V. SUNILGAVASKER             3,000,000 0.15%

I noticed too. Mrs.Sangakkara and Samaraweera. Mr.Muralitharan and Mr.Gavaskar (Indian Cricketer)

geesura likes this post

113EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 6 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Mon Nov 09, 2020 9:26 pm

suku502


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Can we predict good returned after finding the Vaccine for COVID-19 from EXP.N ???? "Prevention is better than cure"  .  confused confused confused cherry cherry

samaritan dislikes this post

114EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 6 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Mon Nov 09, 2020 9:29 pm

samaritan


Moderator
Moderator
EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 6 0?e=1607558400&v=beta&t=xYRoskYWCpsM0JBYHIyZZAC2RzmJgu8Dz6W-8zVql9w
EXPO ought to benefit from the development of vaccine, being the only global company on the top airfreight forwarders list.


_________________




The biggest risk in life is not taking any risk at all.

115EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 6 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Mon Nov 09, 2020 9:31 pm

subash81


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@suku502 wrote:Can we predict good returned after finding the Vaccine for COVID-19 from EXP.N ???? "Prevention is better than cure"  .  confused confused confused cherry cherry

If vaccine procude to deliver within next 3/4 months, then its a huge advantage for EXPO logistic  
EXPO fly more 
More positive for EXPO

Mithooshan likes this post

116EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 6 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Mon Nov 09, 2020 9:33 pm

lakymahesh


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
@Mithooshan wrote:
@Captain wrote:Below in the new increased shareholding / New Entrance to the EXPO, see any abody u knowing is there

SEYLAN BANK PLC/ARRC CAPITAL (PVT) LTD             9,675,118 0.49%
MR. S.N.P. PALIHENA & MRS. A. S. PALIHENA             6,000,000 0.31%
MR. P. MURALITHARAN             5,700,000 0.29%
MR. K.U.D. SILVA             4,736,041 0.24%
MR. S.J. AMARASEKERA             4,250,000 0.22%
PEOPLE’S LEASING & FINANCE PLC/HI LINE TRADING (PVT) LTD              3,600,000 0.19%
JN LANKA HOLDINGS COMPANY (PVT) LTD             3,250,010 0.24%
HATTON NATIONAL BANK PLC- ASTRUE ALPHA FUND              929,646 0.19%
MRS. N.K. SAMARAWEERA             3,685,000 0.19%
MRS. K.J.A.N. SANGAKKARA             3,500,000 0.18%
HOTEL INTERNATIONAL (PRIVATE) LIMITED             3,411,528 0.17%
MR. V. SUNILGAVASKER             3,000,000 0.15%

I noticed too. Mrs.Sangakkara and Samaraweera. Mr.Muralitharan and Mr.Gavaskar (Indian Cricketer)

EXPO we be playing for mercantile nxt year, Drafting with young money.

117EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 6 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Mon Nov 09, 2020 9:51 pm

CSEdeSILVA


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
Now EXPO over priced.. It's too risky to invest anymore on EXPO..
Only hope was this financial statement. result was good. Share price again went up.
But suddenly, when big share holders sell their EXPO price will collapse faster than it's going high.
You have to understand is too away from it's actual value. It's about 5-6 times.

Miss-Sangeetha, Kipling, RJ1010, Baba2020 and Win Win dislike this post

118EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 6 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Mon Nov 09, 2020 9:57 pm

Captain


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
How can u say when ANNUAL EPS arround Rs.9/=

Current PE is only arroun 3 , how this overvalued

RJ1010, Mithooshan and Baba2020 like this post

Sachira90 and CSEdeSILVA dislike this post

119EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 6 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Mon Nov 09, 2020 10:37 pm

Mithooshan


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@CSEdeSILVA wrote:Now EXPO over priced.. It's too risky to invest anymore on EXPO..
Only hope was this financial statement. result was good. Share price again went up.
But suddenly, when big share holders sell their EXPO price will collapse faster than it's going high.
You have to understand is too away from it's actual value. It's about 5-6 times.

@CSEdeSilva - I would really appreciate if you could show us how you derived at the computation of Expo’s actual value as indicated in your comment.

We should know what is the actual price as per your calculation to understand how much it is over priced. Isn’t it ?

This will provide more clarity for the members following the thread. I hope you understand. Otherwise anyone could just say their view point without any calculations which will mislead investors.

Thank you.

RJ1010 and Win Win like this post

120EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 6 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Mon Nov 09, 2020 10:47 pm

Vishwanarth


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior investor known as Wallstreet in an other site says....
I have prepared another table which comprises of few scenarios to map out the estimated target price for EXPO which has now become a hot share in CSE.

*EXPO last 2Q EPS now stands Rs3.21. As a result of all the information mentioned by all of us in this thread we know that company will perform well in future two quarters as well.

*Colored figures are only estimated figures by my self.

*Company should perform well in the next two quarters as expected by me to reach the below mentioned EPS figures and the estimated future price of EXPO.

*I strongly believe that this is fair expectation provided the company delivers expected profits in future.

Annual expected EPS is 6. 96 and market price 55(Average)

*This is not a buy or sell recommendation.

*Disc - hold



Last edited by Vishwanarth on Mon Nov 09, 2020 10:51 pm; edited 1 time in total

Mithooshan and subash81 like this post

121EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 6 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Mon Nov 09, 2020 10:50 pm

Mithooshan


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Vishwanarth wrote:Senior investor known as Wallstreet in an other site says...

I have prepared another table which comprises of few scenarios to map out the estimated target price for EXPO which has now become a hot share in CSE.

*EXPO last 2Q EPS now stands Rs3.21. As a result of all the information mentioned by all of us in this thread we know that company will perform well in future two quarters as well.

*Colored figures are only estimated figures by my self.

*Company should perform well in the next two quarters as expected by me to reach the below mentioned EPS figures and the estimated future price of EXPO.

*I strongly believe that this is fair expectation provided the company delivers expected profits in future.

*This is not a buy or sell recommendation.

*Disc - hold

EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 6 66f3ab10

The picture shared by wall street.

All credit to Wall Street

lal62 and Vishwanarth like this post

122EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 6 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Mon Nov 09, 2020 10:52 pm

ONTHEMONEY


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Hi all,

It is delightful to observe EXPOs financials for 1H20 which is OVERWELMING and I see EXPO have the legs to become the BEST EARNINGS/PROFIT GENERATOR in CSE for the FY 2020/21 BEATING TOP BANKS AND BIGGEST CONGLOMERATES.

Who is EXPO??

Its a MULTINATIONAL COMPANY operating in 27 countries with 40 business units approximately catering the GLOBAL DEMAND. The business with core regions spanning to Africa in the west and the United States in the east, and also has a powerful network of agents in Europe. EXPO ranted 26th in AIR Freight and 44th in Ocean freight GLOBALLY.

How EXPO achieved this much of a GROWTH?

The capital alliance in May 2014 with SG Holdings and strategic changes in the operating model together with aggressive expansion in GLOBAL FOOTPRINT targeting the growth in market share is the foundation laid during 2017~2018 end. 

Impact of C19 - Due to its Light Asset model, EXPO agile enough to cater the emergent opportunities created through C19 mainly the PPE and C19 vaccine which is on the cards.

The impact of PPE in EXPO growth in 2Q20?

Based on the available information by the mother company, the PPE contribution for logistics business of EXPO was only 5%~7% and EXPO experienced a rebound in usual business operations which has contributed the MOST to EXPOs profits in 2Q20. 

In particular the RETAIL and TECH categories from China mostly which are some of the new business channels on top of traditional apparel forwarding. EXPO is the largest forwarder for Fitbit and HP. The well know giants know as Target and Home Dept. in retail business are some of the key clients of EXPO. Also, EXPO have secured key clients namely GAP, Lululemon, American Eagle, PVH, etc.

Key competitive Advantages of EXPO?

The ability to get funding substantially cheaper interest rates cf. Sri Lankan Banks from its mother co. since Japanese interest rates are negative for deposits. Hence, SG is beneficial even if they lend at 1% to EXPO. This helps EXPO to bid BEST PRICE and have deep pockets in PRICE NEGOTIATIONS.

Having KEY STRONG CLIENTS generating substantial business volumes explained above

EXPO aggressive presence in Global markets in particular in China and India in recent years

Diversified revenue generating product portfolio containing essentials and emerging tech equipment across the GLOBE

Efficient ERP solutions catering the just in time needs of the global clients

KEY TAKE AWAYS in EXPO for FUTURE

Continuous GLOBAL EXPANSIONS highly possible in Central America and Euro zone which would be STRATEGICALLY IMPORTANT to GROW more business

Increasing the number of PRODUCT VARIENTS handled through forwarding to improve more revenue channels.

Increasing KEY ACCOUNTS similar to what they enjoy now. 

I will rework the valuations with latest financial of EXPO which I see as a GOLD MINE in CSE.

Good Luck

Note - This is not a BUY or SELL recommendation and please research more to make a final call of your positions.

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123EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 6 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Mon Nov 09, 2020 10:52 pm

Vishwanarth


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Mithooshan wrote:
@Vishwanarth wrote:Senior investor known as Wallstreet in an other site says...

I have prepared another table which comprises of few scenarios to map out the estimated target price for EXPO which has now become a hot share in CSE.

*EXPO last 2Q EPS now stands Rs3.21. As a result of all the information mentioned by all of us in this thread we know that company will perform well in future two quarters as well.

*Colored figures are only estimated figures by my self.

*Company should perform well in the next two quarters as expected by me to reach the below mentioned EPS figures and the estimated future price of EXPO.

*I strongly believe that this is fair expectation provided the company delivers expected profits in future.

*This is not a buy or sell recommendation.

*Disc - hold

EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 6 66f3ab10

The picture shared by wall street.

All credit to Wall Street.

Its great learnt friends can comment on this. I think this is a fair computation

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124EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 6 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Mon Nov 09, 2020 10:53 pm

Win Win


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Actually, I had not EXPO. Added 1,000 shares today. Try to add more with limited cash.

Really need to tell,,

DIPD, HAYC, EXPO will give massive gains for investors from current market price. Current market prices are good to enter. Most of other shares in CSE have reached its upper levels, can't say totally over valued.

But, HAYC & EXPO can maintain this good times more & more and record same great performance in future !! Minimum capital gain expected from HAYC / EXPO is more than 40 %

DIPD has more potential to grow with its opportunities and competitive advantages !! No limit, they need capacity enhancements to cater more opportunities in the market. DIPD will reach Rs.600 with out a doubt.

HAYL can give a good capital gain in short term as VONE. It will touch Rs.500.

Profit Generators..

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125EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 6 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Mon Nov 09, 2020 11:22 pm

ONTHEMONEY


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Hi All,
 
Thought of giving my opinion on EXPO with the published results with info I gathered from my research avenues; will start off with the below summary on results with last years data points.
 
Year
Profit
EPS
Dividend Payout
2021 1H
6299
3.21
 
2021 Q2
4545
2.32
 
2021 Q1
1754
0.89
 
2020
-438
Negative
No Dividends
2019
1909
0.741
20%
2018
962
0.364
41%
2017
1229
0.488
31%
2016
1446
0.57
21%
2015
1047
0.868
38%
 
While most of above are self-explanatory let me give my perspective on what we can expect in coming quarters;
 
SCENARIO I - HIGHLY PESIMISTIC VIEW
 
1H EPS -  3.21
2H EPS -  1.16 (25% of Q2 EPS delivery in coming two quarters considering on a conservative model)
 
Total estimated EPS = 4.37
Estimated Market value = 43.7 (Market of 10x Multiplier)
 
SCENARIO II - REALISITIC VIEW
 
1H EPS -  3.21
2H EPS -  2.32 (50% of Q2 EPS delivery in coming two quarters considering on a conservative model)
 
Total estimated EPS = 5.53
Estimated Market value = 55.3 (Market of 10x Multiplier)


SCENARIO III - HIGHLY OPTIMISTIC VIEW
 
1H EPS -  3.21
2H EPS -  3.48 (75% of Q2 EPS delivery in coming two quarters considering on a conservative model)
 
Total estimated EPS = 6.69
Estimated Market value = 66.9 (Market of 10x Multiplier)
 
Notes (As at 09.11.2020)
Current Market P/E  = 10.36
Sector P/E                  =  46

In depth evaluation of the Financial Performance in 2Q20
How will EXPO maintain/ increase the same Q2 profits; If you analyze the data well, you will understand the reduction in the total reported volumes (SGH info) vs Q1 ( Drop of 35%) while an significant increase in profits. How is this possible in a scenario where comparative C19 impact was lesser compared to Q1? My hypothesis is the stabilization of their general business along with a partial support from PPE transportation which should be less than Q1. Which gives an indication on how they are no more only a company which depends only in PPE transportation. This also revalidates with the use of significantly higher number of charter flights to transport a significantly lesser volume vs Q1 (25% more). My takeout completely will be a continuation of EXPOs strength on their ability and agility to deliver business requirements with a larger number of charter flights will deliver even higher EPS in coming quarters with a help of an increased PPE transportation with the current C19 development vs Q2.          
 
This pushes me to put my expectation towards a SCENARIO I - HIGHLY PESIMISTIC as the minimum to be on the safe side. However, this can be reassess valuations with 3Q20 earnings which I will still keep my hopes towards the SCENARIO II - REALISTIC VIEW; with a Dividend expectation of Rupees 1.80~2 with company’s historical dividend payout ratio. (Average 30%)
 
PS : For all the critics who still wants to check only the NAV, my submission is to check global giants like Amazon, Uber and even most of the established companies who works on a no | minimum Fixed assets policy to have the advantage on flexibility | agility to market volatilities.
 
For those who think of Expo as a COVID stock, I think we need to move away from that assumption. Although Expo benefited from C19, Q2 results clearly indicate they are not dependent on corona. They used COVID to fundamentally change the company. Everyone in the forwarding industry now know of Expo as a logistics powerhouse in Asia. I believe it will remain that way even after COVID ends
 
Not a BUY or SELL Recommendation; Just sharing my views. Please read more about the company in depth and take your positions taking calculated risk as EXPO reached many heights from very low levels.


Good Luck

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