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innam wrote:the IPO price you might say is not vastly over priced for a conglomerate but the biggest problem is that the existing shareholders had sold nearly 300 million of shares at a price of Rs 6/=, so friends and the big players have got 300 million shares at 6/= while retailers and smaller big boys are going to get 172 million at 14/=......the question is will those 300 million shares get dumped onto the market on the first day or will the SEC one year lock rule apply to them?
econ wrote:innam wrote:the IPO price you might say is not vastly over priced for a conglomerate but the biggest problem is that the existing shareholders had sold nearly 300 million of shares at a price of Rs 6/=, so friends and the big players have got 300 million shares at 6/= while retailers and smaller big boys are going to get 172 million at 14/=......the question is will those 300 million shares get dumped onto the market on the first day or will the SEC one year lock rule apply to them?
yes this private placement thing should be regulated more by cse. otherwise IPOs are not attractive for retailers as only big players just gain billions.
wiser wrote:Anyway Indirectly WAPO will be the winner. Let's see.
tinyman wrote:9 Months profit (net of minority interest and tax) 1,267,856,108
Segment contribution
Transportation 72%
Others- Including Manufacturing 19%
International trade 6%
Strategic Investment 3%
post IPO shares in issue 1,954,915,000
Annualized EPS 0.86
Issue Price 14
Issue PE 16.4
Sector PE 35.39
Value at market PE 30.30
innam wrote:the IPO price you might say is not vastly over priced for a conglomerate but the biggest problem is that the existing shareholders had sold nearly 300 million of shares at a price of Rs 6/=, so friends and the big players have got 300 million shares at 6/= while retailers and smaller big boys are going to get 172 million at 14/=......the question is will those 300 million shares get dumped onto the market on the first day or will the SEC one year lock rule apply to them?
Last edited by seyon on Fri Apr 22, 2011 1:51 pm; edited 1 time in total
seyon wrote:tinyman wrote:9 Months profit (net of minority interest and tax) 1,267,856,108
Segment contribution
Transportation 72%
Others- Including Manufacturing 19%
International trade 6%
Strategic Investment 3%
post IPO shares in issue 1,954,915,000
Annualized EPS 0.86
Issue Price 14
Issue PE 16.4
Sector PE 35.39
Value at market PE 30.30
Further when u dig the its financial out of 1.26Bn ( profit attributable to O/S) 822 million rupees arrived from other income, which included 313 million rupees capital gains on sale of investments, 21 million from debt recoveries, and 76.3 million rupees from negative goodwill.
So if u take out these from profit, only 850Mn from the operation is reported ( 1.26 -0.313-0.021-0.0763) then the diluted EPS would be 0.43( 850Mn/1.954Bn shares, post IPO). Therefore issue PE @ 32X, this is fairly trading line with sector PE...
Further Book Value is only 2.77, then PBV is about 5x... Look at others in diversified sectors, out of these CARS & RICH are trading more than 5 times, others are pretty much attractive when comparing with EXPO..
CARS- 6.23x
JKH - 3.46x
HAYL -1.87x
RICH- 5.8x
CTHR - 4.15x
HHL - 2.88x
SPEN- 3.32X
Further when u look at the share holding 130,500,000 shares representing for others, which may have allotted to friends, relatives and family members or other institution.. I guess these shares would have been issued @ very cheap price ( may be @ 6). Hence these shareholders will dump the shares even @ Rs.14 to get max return...
So guys what do u think about EXPO in this scenario... whether we ( retailers) will benefit from this subscription...
Pls explain anyone knows about transportation industry ( Fright service) to how the business model of EXPO in future..
Share ur views...
tinyman wrote:
I did some more work with the numbers...
https://i.servimg.com/u/f21/16/41/50/09/expo_a11.png
Last edited by seyon on Fri Apr 22, 2011 10:24 am; edited 1 time in total
smallville wrote:It was a share sale between CINV & WAPO.. CINV selling big amt to WAPO..CINV has bought these shares last year it seems..
Now calculate the fact that WAPO can easily book some profit by disposing these shares at 14-16 even dragging the counter down on first day itself..So u may not be able to book a good profit with it or u may have to hold onto it for a long time to realize a decent gain..
We dont have any guarantee over this, are we?
This is wat I've been thinking of this Expo now..
seyon wrote:tinyman wrote:
I did some more work with ..........
https://i.servimg.com/u/f21/16/41/50/09/expo_a11.png
When u take out the non recurring income PE is about 32x, which is pretty much high at initial trading stag. even if take the assumption that the institutional shareholder will hold for long term. I doubt about 130Mn shares representing for others category. I guess they will dump the shares event at IPO price. This we experienced from Union bank IPO as well....
tinyman wrote:seyon wrote:tinyman wrote:9 Months profit (net of minority interest and tax) 1,267,856,108
Segment contribution
Transportation 72%
Others- Including Manufacturing 19%
International trade 6%
Strategic Investment 3%
post IPO shares in issue 1,954,915,000
Annualized EPS 0.86
Issue Price 14
Issue PE 16.4
Sector PE 35.39
Value at market PE 30.30
Further when u dig the its financial out of 1.26Bn ( profit attributable to O/S) 822 million rupees arrived from other income, which included 313 million rupees capital gains on sale of investments, 21 million from debt recoveries, and 76.3 million rupees from negative goodwill.
So if u take out these from profit, only 850Mn from the operation is reported ( 1.26 -0.313-0.021-0.0763) then the diluted EPS would be 0.43( 850Mn/1.954Bn shares, post IPO). Therefore issue PE @ 32X, this is fairly trading line with sector PE...
Further Book Value is only 2.77, then PBV is about 5x... Look at others in diversified sectors, out of these CARS & RICH are trading more than 5 times, others are pretty much attractive when comparing with EXPO..
CARS- 6.23x
JKH - 3.46x
HAYL -1.87x
RICH- 5.8x
CTHR - 4.15x
HHL - 2.88x
SPEN- 3.32X
Further when u look at the share holding 130,500,000 shares representing for others, which may have allotted to friends, relatives and family members or other institution.. I guess these shares would have been issued @ very cheap price ( may be @ 6). Hence these shareholders will dump the shares even @ Rs.14 to get max return...
So guys what do u think about EXPO in this scenario... whether we ( retailers) will benefit from this subscription...
Pls explain anyone knows about transportation industry ( Fright service) to how the business model of EXPO in future..
Share ur views...
I did some more work with the numbers...
https://i.servimg.com/u/f21/16/41/50/09/expo_a11.png
tinyman wrote:seyon wrote:tinyman wrote:
I did some more work with ..........
https://i.servimg.com/u/f21/16/41/50/09/expo_a11.png
When u take out the non recurring income PE is about 32x, which is pretty much high at initial trading stag. even if take the assumption that the institutional shareholder will hold for long term. I doubt about 130Mn shares representing for others category. I guess they will dump the shares event at IPO price. This we experienced from Union bank IPO as well....
32x PE comes when you takes only 9 month earning, we have to annualize the 9month profit in order to calculate the correct PE. and the profit from non recurring items should also be assertained to MIs, so after these two adjustment only PE comes to 22x.
correct me if i'm wrong
Last edited by seyon on Fri Apr 22, 2011 1:46 pm; edited 4 times in total
`csekanex@gmail.com wrote:
Tinyman
I am not an expert in financial side but in your calculation -
If you deduct the non recurring items to get the diluted PBT and deducted same amount of income tax from diluted PBT is it correct or we have to recalculate income tax on diluted PBT ? Won't make much of a difference though ......please comment
kavi84 wrote:Is it worth to by @14 from ipo?![]()
tubal wrote:econ wrote:innam wrote:the IPO price you might say is not vastly over priced for a conglomerate but the biggest problem is that the existing shareholders had sold nearly 300 million of shares at a price of Rs 6/=, so friends and the big players have got 300 million shares at 6/= while retailers and smaller big boys are going to get 172 million at 14/=......the question is will those 300 million shares get dumped onto the market on the first day or will the SEC one year lock rule apply to them?
yes this private placement thing should be regulated more by cse. otherwise IPOs are not attractive for retailers as only big players just gain billions.
Regulators can't do anything about stupidity. All that's needed is for retailers to stop being stupid.
UKboy wrote:tubal wrote:econ wrote:innam wrote:the IPO price you might say is not vastly over priced for a conglomerate but the biggest problem is that the existing shareholders had sold nearly 300 million of shares at a price of Rs 6/=, so friends and the big players have got 300 million shares at 6/= while retailers and smaller big boys are going to get 172 million at 14/=......the question is will those 300 million shares get dumped onto the market on the first day or will the SEC one year lock rule apply to them?
yes this private placement thing should be regulated more by cse. otherwise IPOs are not attractive for retailers as only big players just gain billions.
Regulators can't do anything about stupidity. All that's needed is for retailers to stop being stupid.
Very true Tubal. If I'm desperate buy shares of this company I would be buying from the open market.
This time it is too risky to buy shares from the IPO due to this private placement.
Also 172 millions + 300 millions at the market.![]()
![]()
econ wrote:innam wrote:the IPO price you might say is not vastly over priced for a conglomerate but the biggest problem is that the existing shareholders had sold nearly 300 million of shares at a price of Rs 6/=, so friends and the big players have got 300 million shares at 6/= while retailers and smaller big boys are going to get 172 million at 14/=......the question is will those 300 million shares get dumped onto the market on the first day or will the SEC one year lock rule apply to them?
yes this private placement thing should be regulated more by cse. otherwise IPOs are not attractive for retailers as only big players just gain billions.
Gaja wrote:econ wrote:innam wrote:the IPO price you might say is not vastly over priced for a conglomerate but the biggest problem is that the existing shareholders had sold nearly 300 million of shares at a price of Rs 6/=, so friends and the big players have got 300 million shares at 6/= while retailers and smaller big boys are going to get 172 million at 14/=......the question is will those 300 million shares get dumped onto the market on the first day or will the SEC one year lock rule apply to them?
yes this private placement thing should be regulated more by cse. otherwise IPOs are not attractive for retailers as only big players just gain billions.
econ i didn't want to promote or demote any shares but this is a answer i posted to another question just have a look - http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t2893-private-placement#19424
Gaja wrote:econ wrote:innam wrote:the IPO price you might say is not vastly over priced for a conglomerate but the biggest problem is that the existing shareholders had sold nearly 300 million of shares at a price of Rs 6/=, so friends and the big players have got 300 million shares at 6/= while retailers and smaller big boys are going to get 172 million at 14/=......the question is will those 300 million shares get dumped onto the market on the first day or will the SEC one year lock rule apply to them?
yes this private placement thing should be regulated more by cse. otherwise IPOs are not attractive for retailers as only big players just gain billions.
econ i didn't want to promote or demote any shares but this is a answer i posted to another question just have a look - http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t2893-private-placement#19424
seyon wrote:
Yes Gaja.. Private placement is really helped to these company to restructure the balance sheet and to show good picture when it come to IPO. When u analyze the union Bank IPO and private placement, 15Mn shares were issued on IPO, I am not sure about the private placement nos. However in the very 1st day itself 17.5 Mn shares were traded between 38-45. so some of the investors who bought from private placement issue, would have sold even in 1st day itself.
I guess, same pattern will happen to EXPO also... Further the investors who bought from private placement have been waiting for long time ( 2 years). But Union bank private placement was taken place before 6 months of IPO. I guess..
However we do not tell anything in CSE.....
Happy Trading
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