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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » CORPORATE CHRONICLE™ » GRAN/BFL/TFL

GRAN/BFL/TFL

+2
desh87
CHRONICLE™
6 posters

Go down  Message [Page 1 of 1]

1GRAN/BFL/TFL Empty GRAN/BFL/TFL Tue Nov 24, 2020 2:22 am

CHRONICLE™

CHRONICLE™
Admin
Did a small comparison for poultry sector shares. All are good counters and has much room to grow. But I feel TAFL is undervalued at the moment and has a slight edge and more room for growth compared to GRAN & BFL.

GRAN/BFL/TFL 3e184b10

I used a conservative EPS figure for the TAFL Q4. They may report even higher earnings as December is the best quarter for the poultry sector. This time it may be even better due to people reluctant to eat fish and the higher turnover from global business as a result of supply shortages due to COVID 19 pandemic.

If you analyse the September quarterly accounts you can see TAFL has recorded a tax credit and no tax charge for BAFL. However for GRAN, tax benefit is received only because of TAFL. GRAN Company is taxed. My argument is for these poultry companies tax concession was already in place from the beginning of the year (not from the budget), and GRAN seems not classified under the same sector hence they don’t get the tax benefit.

If we take BFL and go with an highly optimistic assumption that they will continue to repeat the last qtr results for every quarter, still it trades at same P/E multiple of TAFL. We don't know whether that will materialize, as BFL has kept on making losses for last several quarters and only the September quarter they have turned it to a profit. However annual EPS of Rs. 16.50 and 37.50 for GRAN & TAFL is very realistic. True that BFL has a higher NAVPS and just in case if they get the beef import license that rumor says it may become a different story.

TAFL has Rs. 3 Billion + cash balance as at 30th September 2020. Highly cash rich company. All in all TAFL seems the best bet out of the lot and I personally feel Rs. 200 for this share is just a matter of time.

And also if you are lucky you may get a chance to collect it at a discount price today being the Xd date.

If there is anything wrong with this you are more than welcome to highlight 👍

desh87 and Win Win like this post

https://www.srilankachronicle.com

2GRAN/BFL/TFL Empty Re: GRAN/BFL/TFL Tue Nov 24, 2020 3:04 am

desh87


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Apart from the tax related point (which I’m not sure of if it was in place from the start of the year) all other points are 100% accurate. Personally I think EPS for Dec quarter should be 15+ and this share can easily hit 300 in the long run. And the other point is, they have so much cash in FDs ect. Due to low interest rates, they will try to reinvest or distribute it as dividends in the coming years. They have shown the first signs of that with a 4.5 interim dividend for the first time in history I think. Good times ahead for TALF for sure! Amazing how more people don’t see this and hardly no discussion about this share even on this forum.

Manipulater likes this post

3GRAN/BFL/TFL Empty Re: GRAN/BFL/TFL Tue Nov 24, 2020 10:10 am

CHRONICLE™

CHRONICLE™
Admin
Sri Lanka being a predominantly buddhist country majority of investors are reluctant to invest in poultry stocks.

https://www.srilankachronicle.com

4GRAN/BFL/TFL Empty Re: GRAN/BFL/TFL Tue Nov 24, 2020 1:48 pm

blackjesus


Stock Analytic
Stock Analytic
live stocks will anyway do good this Q cause of the lack of fish. GRAN and TAFL is anyway good if you're long term investor. avg dividend yield 4-6%

5GRAN/BFL/TFL Empty Re: GRAN/BFL/TFL Tue Nov 24, 2020 1:49 pm

blackjesus


Stock Analytic
Stock Analytic
CHRONICLE™ wrote:Sri Lanka being a predominantly buddhist country majority of investors are reluctant to invest in poultry stocks.
true Sad

6GRAN/BFL/TFL Empty Re: GRAN/BFL/TFL Tue Nov 24, 2020 6:09 pm

DKbogols


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
CHRONICLE™ wrote:Did a small comparison for poultry sector shares. All are good counters and has much room to grow. But I feel TAFL is undervalued at the moment and has a slight edge and more room for growth compared to GRAN & BFL.

GRAN/BFL/TFL 3e184b10

I used a conservative EPS figure for the TAFL Q4. They may report even higher earnings as December is the best quarter for the poultry sector. This time it may be even better due to people reluctant to eat fish and the higher turnover from global business as a result of supply shortages due to COVID 19 pandemic.

If you analyse the September quarterly accounts you can see TAFL has recorded a tax credit and no tax charge for BAFL. However for GRAN, tax benefit is received only because of TAFL. GRAN Company is taxed. My argument is for these poultry companies tax concession was already in place from the beginning of the year (not from the budget), and GRAN seems not classified under the same sector hence they don’t get the tax benefit.

If we take BFL and go with an highly optimistic assumption that they will continue to repeat the last qtr results for every quarter, still it trades at same P/E multiple of TAFL. We don't know whether that will materialize, as BFL has kept on making losses for last several quarters and only the September quarter they have turned it to a profit. However annual EPS of Rs. 16.50 and 37.50 for GRAN & TAFL is very realistic. True that BFL has a higher NAVPS and just in case if they get the beef import license that rumor says it may become a different story.

TAFL has Rs. 3 Billion + cash balance as at 30th September 2020. Highly cash rich company. All in all TAFL seems the best bet out of the lot and I personally feel Rs. 200 for this share is just a matter of time.

And also if you are lucky you may get a chance to collect it at a discount price today being the Xd date.

If there is anything wrong with this you are more than welcome to highlight 👍

I don't think TAFL can be compared with other as they are only engaged in supply of DoCs. Day Old Chicks. Where as GRAN and BFL are more end user products with PRIMA and BAIRAHA brands with chicken, parts, sausages etc. PRIMA does bread also. so we are not comparing apples with apples when TAFL is included (they are just the raw material in this case). 

Also why haven't you included CIC? They are also into poultry and end user chicken meat.

7GRAN/BFL/TFL Empty Re: GRAN/BFL/TFL Tue Nov 24, 2020 6:11 pm

DKbogols


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
CHRONICLE™ wrote:Sri Lanka being a predominantly buddhist country majority of investors are reluctant to invest in poultry stocks.

This fact isn't new. Already included in the price before, now and future.

8GRAN/BFL/TFL Empty Re: GRAN/BFL/TFL Tue Nov 24, 2020 6:35 pm

Tradewise


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
@DKbogols wrote:
CHRONICLE™ wrote:Did a small comparison for poultry sector shares. All are good counters and has much room to grow. But I feel TAFL is undervalued at the moment and has a slight edge and more room for growth compared to GRAN & BFL.

GRAN/BFL/TFL 3e184b10



I used a conservative EPS figure for the TAFL Q4. They may report even higher earnings as December is the best quarter for the poultry sector. This time it may be even better due to people reluctant to eat fish and the higher turnover from global business as a result of supply shortages due to COVID 19 pandemic.

If you analyse the September quarterly accounts you can see TAFL has recorded a tax credit and no tax charge for BAFL. However for GRAN, tax benefit is received only because of TAFL. GRAN Company is taxed. My argument is for these poultry companies tax concession was already in place from the beginning of the year (not from the budget), and GRAN seems not classified under the same sector hence they don’t get the tax benefit.

If we take BFL and go with an highly optimistic assumption that they will continue to repeat the last qtr results for every quarter, still it trades at same P/E multiple of TAFL. We don't know whether that will materialize, as BFL has kept on making losses for last several quarters and only the September quarter they have turned it to a profit. However annual EPS of Rs. 16.50 and 37.50 for GRAN & TAFL is very realistic. True that BFL has a higher NAVPS and just in case if they get the beef import license that rumor says it may become a different story.

TAFL has Rs. 3 Billion + cash balance as at 30th September 2020. Highly cash rich company. All in all TAFL seems the best bet out of the lot and I personally feel Rs. 200 for this share is just a matter of time.

And also if you are lucky you may get a chance to collect it at a discount price today being the Xd date.

If there is anything wrong with this you are more than welcome to highlight 👍

I don't think TAFL can be compared with other as they are only engaged in supply of DoCs. Day Old Chicks. Where as GRAN and BFL are more end user products with PRIMA and BAIRAHA brands with chicken, parts, sausages etc. PRIMA does bread also. so we are not comparing apples with apples when TAFL is included (they are just the raw material in this case). 

Also why haven't you included CIC? They are also into poultry and end user chicken meat.

Exactly

DKbogols likes this post

9GRAN/BFL/TFL Empty Re: GRAN/BFL/TFL Wed Nov 25, 2020 2:47 am

desh87


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
For some reason, BFL lost its glory. Came to level where it was making loss. I couldn’t pin point why though

10GRAN/BFL/TFL Empty Re: GRAN/BFL/TFL Wed Nov 25, 2020 2:36 pm

Rare

Rare
Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
CHRONICLE™ wrote:Did a small comparison for poultry sector shares. All are good counters and has much room to grow. But I feel TAFL is undervalued at the moment and has a slight edge and more room for growth compared to GRAN & BFL.

GRAN/BFL/TFL 3e184b10

I used a conservative EPS figure for the TAFL Q4. They may report even higher earnings as December is the best quarter for the poultry sector. This time it may be even better due to people reluctant to eat fish and the higher turnover from global business as a result of supply shortages due to COVID 19 pandemic.

If you analyse the September quarterly accounts you can see TAFL has recorded a tax credit and no tax charge for BAFL. However for GRAN, tax benefit is received only because of TAFL. GRAN Company is taxed. My argument is for these poultry companies tax concession was already in place from the beginning of the year (not from the budget), and GRAN seems not classified under the same sector hence they don’t get the tax benefit.

If we take BFL and go with an highly optimistic assumption that they will continue to repeat the last qtr results for every quarter, still it trades at same P/E multiple of TAFL. We don't know whether that will materialize, as BFL has kept on making losses for last several quarters and only the September quarter they have turned it to a profit. However annual EPS of Rs. 16.50 and 37.50 for GRAN & TAFL is very realistic. True that BFL has a higher NAVPS and just in case if they get the beef import license that rumor says it may become a different story.

TAFL has Rs. 3 Billion + cash balance as at 30th September 2020. Highly cash rich company. All in all TAFL seems the best bet out of the lot and I personally feel Rs. 200 for this share is just a matter of time.

And also if you are lucky you may get a chance to collect it at a discount price today being the Xd date.

If there is anything wrong with this you are more than welcome to highlight 👍
Dear Chronicle
The tax matter for Gran has solved. Pl refer Gran’s Q3 Report to read beyond the following sentence.
The tax exemptions for agro-farming increased the Group’s bottom line.

Current year dividend yields 4.5 +4.5(Interim)

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