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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » Fitch Rating පච පතුරුවනවා.. පිලිගන්න එපා.. මුදල් අමාත්‍යංශයෙන් නිවේදනයක්..

Fitch Rating පච පතුරුවනවා.. පිලිගන්න එපා.. මුදල් අමාත්‍යංශයෙන් නිවේදනයක්..

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fireshelter

fireshelter
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Fitch Rating පච පතුරුවනවා.. පිලිගන්න එපා.. මුදල් අමාත්‍යංශයෙන් නිවේදනයක්..
November 28, 2020 at 12:00 pm | lanka C news
Fitch Rating පච පතුරුවනවා.. පිලිගන්න එපා.. මුදල් අමාත්‍යංශයෙන් නිවේදනයක්.. Treasury
ෆිච් රේටිං ආයතනය විසින් ශ්‍රී ලංකාව සම්බන්ධයෙන් නිකුත් කර ඇති ශ්‍රේණිගත කිරීම ප්‍රතික්ෂේප කරන බව මුදල් අමාත්‍යාංශය සඳහන් කරයි.
ඔවුන් විසින් ශ්‍රේණිගත කිරීම් සිදු කර ඇත්තේ සනාථ නොකළ කරුණු මත පදනම් වූ බවද මුදල් අමාත්‍යංශය නිවේදනය කරයි.
2021 වසර සඳහා රජය විසින් ඉදිරිපත් කරන ලද අයවැය වාර්තාවේ සඳහන් යෝජනාවන් ඔවුන් මෙම ශ්‍රේණිගත කිරීමට සලකා බලා නැතැයිද මුදල් අමාත්‍යංශය චෝදනා කරයි.
නිවේදනයක් නිකුත් කරමින් මුදල් අමාත්‍යංශයෙන් ඒ බව සඳහන් කර තිබේ.
එම නිවේදනය මෙතනින්

Cma likes this post

RJ1010


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
In the next 2yrs everyone can see whether Moodys and Fitch are right or wrong.

dayandacool and Kevinmikegrit like this post

Champ888


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Very low Foreign Participation is the problem for CSE. This news too will have negative impact.

RJ1010


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
The ratings will further drive away foreign investors. The problem of taking more loans to payoff debt is worrisome. As much as ANC is trying to paint a rosy picture it is clear 2021 is not going to be a good year for Sri Lanka.
When import restrictions are relaxed the rupee will depreciate and inflation will go up. This will happen sooner than later as EU indicated their displeasure at the one sided trade happening now.
Hopefully some of the policies encouraging exports will show its benefits by 2022 and a recovery can be expected.

dayandacool likes this post

High-flyer

High-flyer
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@fireshelter wrote:Fitch Rating පච පතුරුවනවා.. පිලිගන්න එපා.. මුදල් අමාත්‍යංශයෙන් නිවේදනයක්..
November 28, 2020 at 12:00 pm | lanka C news
Fitch Rating පච පතුරුවනවා.. පිලිගන්න එපා.. මුදල් අමාත්‍යංශයෙන් නිවේදනයක්.. Treasury
ෆිච් රේටිං ආයතනය විසින් ශ්‍රී ලංකාව සම්බන්ධයෙන් නිකුත් කර ඇති ශ්‍රේණිගත කිරීම ප්‍රතික්ෂේප කරන බව මුදල් අමාත්‍යාංශය සඳහන් කරයි.
ඔවුන් විසින් ශ්‍රේණිගත කිරීම් සිදු කර ඇත්තේ සනාථ නොකළ කරුණු මත පදනම් වූ බවද මුදල් අමාත්‍යංශය නිවේදනය කරයි.
2021 වසර සඳහා රජය විසින් ඉදිරිපත් කරන ලද අයවැය වාර්තාවේ සඳහන් යෝජනාවන් ඔවුන් මෙම ශ්‍රේණිගත කිරීමට සලකා බලා නැතැයිද මුදල් අමාත්‍යංශය චෝදනා කරයි.
නිවේදනයක් නිකුත් කරමින් මුදල් අමාත්‍යංශයෙන් ඒ බව සඳහන් කර තිබේ.
එම නිවේදනය මෙතනින්

This shows how ignorant of SL Government. 

Earlier with Moody's now with Fitch.

Extract from Fitch.

"External-debt obligations amount to USD23.2 billion between 2021 and 2025 or about USD4 billion annually,


Interest to revenues ratios is 2016 to 2020 is about 50%, substantially above the 'CCC' peer median of about 11%."

So i believe there is an issue to address soon. 

One credible option is to go for IMF. But does this Government has the Financial Discipline for that?

dayandacool and RJ1010 like this post

samaritan


Moderator
Moderator
@High-flyer wrote:
@fireshelter wrote:Fitch Rating පච පතුරුවනවා.. පිලිගන්න එපා.. මුදල් අමාත්‍යංශයෙන් නිවේදනයක්..
November 28, 2020 at 12:00 pm | lanka C news
Fitch Rating පච පතුරුවනවා.. පිලිගන්න එපා.. මුදල් අමාත්‍යංශයෙන් නිවේදනයක්.. Treasury
ෆිච් රේටිං ආයතනය විසින් ශ්‍රී ලංකාව සම්බන්ධයෙන් නිකුත් කර ඇති ශ්‍රේණිගත කිරීම ප්‍රතික්ෂේප කරන බව මුදල් අමාත්‍යාංශය සඳහන් කරයි.
ඔවුන් විසින් ශ්‍රේණිගත කිරීම් සිදු කර ඇත්තේ සනාථ නොකළ කරුණු මත පදනම් වූ බවද මුදල් අමාත්‍යංශය නිවේදනය කරයි.
2021 වසර සඳහා රජය විසින් ඉදිරිපත් කරන ලද අයවැය වාර්තාවේ සඳහන් යෝජනාවන් ඔවුන් මෙම ශ්‍රේණිගත කිරීමට සලකා බලා නැතැයිද මුදල් අමාත්‍යංශය චෝදනා කරයි.
නිවේදනයක් නිකුත් කරමින් මුදල් අමාත්‍යංශයෙන් ඒ බව සඳහන් කර තිබේ.
එම නිවේදනය මෙතනින්

This shows how ignorant of SL Government. 

Earlier with Moody's now with Fitch.

Extract from Fitch.

"External-debt obligations amount to USD23.2 billion between 2021 and 2025 or about USD4 billion annually,


Interest to revenues ratios is 2016 to 2020 is about 50%, substantially above the 'CCC' peer median of about 11%."

So i believe there is an issue to address soon. 

One credible option is to go for IMF. But does this Government has the Financial Discipline for that?

What puzzles me is that what Moody could not identify has been highlighted by Fitch this time around, may be for reasons best known to the rating agencies or perhaps they take turns in coming out with news to cause sensation and to attract cheap publicity. Whatever the reasons may be, i am sure the govt is well aware of its commitments in relation to debt servicing and they will have a plan to meet these commitments.

Every problem has a solution and problems have been resolved successfully, otherwise we would have been a failed nation long years back with the 30yr protracted war.


_________________




The biggest risk in life is not taking any risk at all.

dayandacool likes this post

dayandacool

dayandacool
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Government need to counteract these allegations internationally more than locally. What's the point in putting a post in a local news paper denying the allegations? they need to counteract them in a more professional manner internationally. it's of no use for us to argue whether the ratings are right or wrong here because most foreign investors go by Fitch and Moody's. If government doesn't or can't effectively counter these allegations, it proves that the ratings are correct or government doesn't seem to care for foreign investments.


Can't a legitimate government go to international courts for downgrading the nation's sovereign ratings if they are not true?? Shocked Shocked  

only my 2 cents Shocked



Last edited by dayandacool on Sun Nov 29, 2020 12:42 pm; edited 1 time in total

dayandacool

dayandacool
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@samaritan wrote:
@High-flyer wrote:
@fireshelter wrote:Fitch Rating පච පතුරුවනවා.. පිලිගන්න එපා.. මුදල් අමාත්‍යංශයෙන් නිවේදනයක්..
November 28, 2020 at 12:00 pm | lanka C news
Fitch Rating පච පතුරුවනවා.. පිලිගන්න එපා.. මුදල් අමාත්‍යංශයෙන් නිවේදනයක්.. Treasury
ෆිච් රේටිං ආයතනය විසින් ශ්‍රී ලංකාව සම්බන්ධයෙන් නිකුත් කර ඇති ශ්‍රේණිගත කිරීම ප්‍රතික්ෂේප කරන බව මුදල් අමාත්‍යාංශය සඳහන් කරයි.
ඔවුන් විසින් ශ්‍රේණිගත කිරීම් සිදු කර ඇත්තේ සනාථ නොකළ කරුණු මත පදනම් වූ බවද මුදල් අමාත්‍යංශය නිවේදනය කරයි.
2021 වසර සඳහා රජය විසින් ඉදිරිපත් කරන ලද අයවැය වාර්තාවේ සඳහන් යෝජනාවන් ඔවුන් මෙම ශ්‍රේණිගත කිරීමට සලකා බලා නැතැයිද මුදල් අමාත්‍යංශය චෝදනා කරයි.
නිවේදනයක් නිකුත් කරමින් මුදල් අමාත්‍යංශයෙන් ඒ බව සඳහන් කර තිබේ.
එම නිවේදනය මෙතනින්

This shows how ignorant of SL Government. 

Earlier with Moody's now with Fitch.

Extract from Fitch.

"External-debt obligations amount to USD23.2 billion between 2021 and 2025 or about USD4 billion annually,


Interest to revenues ratios is 2016 to 2020 is about 50%, substantially above the 'CCC' peer median of about 11%."

So i believe there is an issue to address soon. 

One credible option is to go for IMF. But does this Government has the Financial Discipline for that?

What puzzles me is that what Moody could not identify has been highlighted by Fitch this time around, may be for reasons best known to the rating agencies or perhaps they take turns in coming out with news to cause sensation and to attract cheap publicity. Whatever the reasons may be, i am sure the govt is well aware of its commitments in relation to debt servicing and they will have a plan to meet these commitments.

Every problem has a solution and problems have been resolved successfully, otherwise we would have been a failed nation long years back with the 30yr protracted war.

If government's plan is to borrow more money at an interest to pay the present debt (as witnessed by the budget 2021), what are we suppose to expect next year?? Shocked Shocked Shocked

I'm just curious as a citizen. Haven't we had the same thing happening again and again??

RJ1010


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@dayandacool wrote:Government need to counteract these allegations internationally more than locally. What's the point in putting a post in a local news paper denying the allegations? they need to counteract them in a more professional manner internationally. it's of no use for us to argue whether the ratings are right or wrong here because most foreign investors go by Fitch and Moody's. If government doesn't or can't effectively counter these allegations, it proves that the ratings are correct or government doesn't seem to care for foreign investments.

only my 2 cents Shocked

News released locally is to paint a rosy picture to its citizens. Govt knows it can’t convince foreigners with these stories. 2021 will be tough. Need to keep watch on the exchange rate and inflation. SL falling into the Chinese debt trap is definitely real.
The only redeeming factor I see is on the measures taken to encourage local production for export business and be self sufficient on certain goods which will help balance the foreign reserves. This will likely see its fruits in 2022 and hopefully lead to a recovery. By that time covid will also be a thing of the past. Fingers crossed.

dayandacool likes this post

samaritan


Moderator
Moderator
In spite of Moody's downgrading recently it must be noted that the govt honoured all its liabilities so far during the year amounting to over 4Bn US$ without any problem whatsoever. 

A cartoon that speaks for itself!

Fitch Rating පච පතුරුවනවා.. පිලිගන්න එපා.. මුදල් අමාත්‍යංශයෙන් නිවේදනයක්.. L

I have given below link of an old article which highlights the integrity of the so called rating agencies.

http://damienhegarty.blogspot.com/2012/02/credit-rating-agencies-where-did-they.html


_________________




The biggest risk in life is not taking any risk at all.

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DamithAsian


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
SL has inherent nature that what ever disaster it come across, it is recovering as soon as possible to a good state. Seems Corona second wave also ending. Whatever happened our companies done well unlike some other countries. Mr. D said because of SL companies worked even corona was there unlike Indian and Malaysian companies . Therefore SL companies received new contracts for coming years as well. Tea sector and EXPO may among them. If authorities act due care deligent, we can correct rating soon.
Sometimes this ratings may trigger market operations than last week if investors are thinking different. Investors should read between the lines.

dayandacool likes this post

dayandacool

dayandacool
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@DamithAsian wrote:SL has inherent nature that what ever disaster it come across, it is recovering as soon as possible to a good state. Seems Corona second wave also ending. Whatever happened our companies done well unlike some other countries. Mr. D said because of SL companies worked even corona was there unlike Indian and Malaysian companies . Therefore SL companies received new contracts for coming years as well. Tea sector and EXPO may among them. If authorities act due care deligent, we can correct rating soon.
Sometimes this ratings may trigger market operations than last week if investors are thinking different. Investors should read between the lines.

While it's great to be optimistic, Covid 2nd wave is no where near being over. Do you see the daily numbers? On what basis you called it's ending? Shocked Shocked

Lets pray that it should be over soon cos for a country like SL, it's a toll that we can't bear and it's got nothing to do with which government is ruling the country.

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Wickyz


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
be prepare for selling

shakthi1974


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
Gentleman!!

Be realistic, where were these rating agencies, when Wall Street bubble burst!!

So, think wisely.

Don't just give up your hard earn money. Think rationally, by down grading what will happen to any of the SL big Conglomerates or Banks, they will continue their business as usual. Exports will happen.
None of the governments so far defaulted any loan repayments! so, even in future it will not happen!

SL was in a worse position in 2005-2009, when we were in WAR! still we succeeded! Finally government has come up with a budget to develop manufacturing and agricultural related industries, which will give a big boost to our Economy in longer run than service sector!

So, have some faith! and act WISELY!

DamithAsian likes this post

geesura

geesura
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Wickyz wrote:be prepare for selling
aneh sell will you...

judecroos likes this post

samaritan


Moderator
Moderator
In my opinion Covid is not a major concern. Let's look at the statistics of people infected and recovered and discharged from hospitals. Around 20,000 infected & 15,000 recovered and discharged (figures are approximate) & around 5000 undergoing treatment. The death toll is little over 100 taking into consideration the severity of the second wave. Irrespective of politics its a challenge to carry on with the normal activities and at the same time to keep the pandemic under control. The relevant authorities have done their utmost and have maintained an enviable record, which all Sri lankans can be proud of. To my knowledge there aren't any on ventilators like in US, Europe and even in our neighbouring India.

Even among the dead the majority were suffering from other illnesses like NCDs and mostly elderly. Furthermore, Covid is something which cannot be eradicated until a vaccine is found, it could only be kept under control with people strictly complying with the health authority guidelines and taking the appropriate medications to keep NCDs under control and follow good hygiene. Creating more awareness about NCDs could save money to be spent on PCR tests.

Investors are no fools anymore to resort to selling on Covid fear. As i have stated earlier some expected the situation to worsen to see the market fall to levels that prevailed soon after the first outbreak but it did not happen and by all probabilities is not going to happen. Attempts to instill fear of covid is not convincing at all.  

Let's not politicize the pandemic for petty gains. Its a waste of time!


_________________




The biggest risk in life is not taking any risk at all.

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RJ1010


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Good to see a healthy mix of opinions. Time will tell what will be the fate.
Anyway when these rating agencies rate higher everyone likes to publish those very proudly. Negative reports are not taken in such a way though Smile
Well since ratings are closer to rock bottom the only way forward is UP. We can all rejoice when ratings are upgraded. 👍

DamithAsian likes this post

DamithAsian


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Hope SL investors react in a way of trading that makes Fitch ratings peoples are speechless 😊 We Srilankan are the identical nation.

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