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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » Market Opportunity on the way......

Market Opportunity on the way......

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1Market Opportunity on the way...... Empty Market Opportunity on the way...... Wed Dec 09, 2020 6:37 pm

samaritan


Moderator
Moderator
Hi all,


The following was something I wrote in last week of November about the market sentiment and future behavior. The timing of the activities have been advanced from January to December and the overall BULL sentiment looks to continue in CSE together with following KEY POSITIVE ITEMS driving the overall market towards 7,500 by Feb ~ March 2021 with periodical corrections which can last for few days in CSE. Do observe the pattern of prices of selected counters.


Good Luck


Hi all,

The overall market is slightly pushed in to a INVESTOR SIDELINES SENTIMENT with the Christmas Season is on the cards. However, CSE can uptick sharply in the month of January 2021 with incremental collection starting from 2~3 week of December 2020.  The following are some of the expectations.

End November - Broker credit clearance may dampen the ASI a bit
Early December - Slow momentum in CSE where many stock brokers will be on the sidelines as MOST OF THE STOCK BROKERS have ACHIEVED THE FULL YEAR TARGETS
End December - Investors may chase FUNDMENTALLY STRONG STOCKS which can DELIVER STRONG EARNINGS in 3Q20
Early January - STOCK BROKERS may also start picking up FUNDMENTALLY STRONG STOCKS which can DELIVER STRONG EARNINGS in 3Q20

Why CSE should run starting in the month of January 2021

Most of the companies have delivered STRONG FINANCIALS in 2Q20 better than expected in where everyone can safely EXPECT IMPRESSIVE FINANCIALS in 3Q20.

Strong BUSINESS FRIENDLY and POLICY CONSISTENT BUDGET PROPOSALS helping businesses to BOOST INVESTMENTS in sectors like Agriculture[CIC | AGST], livestock [CIC | TAFL | GRAN | LMF ], pharma [CIC | HEMAS] , logistics [EXPO], leisure [SPEN | AHUN], Manufacturing [TKYO | RCL | PARQ | LWL , CIND], Construction [AEL], Exports [HAYC | DIPD], etc. The COMPANIES in these sectors will be able to deliver STRONG GROWTH in YEARS to come

Enforcing of Port City Law which is LARGEST EVER INVESTMENT opportunity offered by Sri Lanka in the month of January 2021. This may be change the Game Plan of many companies in the construction, logistics, leisure and entertainment, financial services. [TKYO | RCL | LWL | CIND]

Hope of C19 threat to be eliminated from the early 2022 GLOBALLY with a successful vaccine during 1Q21. C19 VACCINE will become the WORLD's BIGGEST EVER LOGISTIC OPPORTUNITY in 2021 and AIR CARGO PROVIDERS are PREPARING to TAKE THAT OPPORTUNITY. Sri Lankan companies in GLOBAL AIR CARGO BUSINESS also will BENEFIT LARGELY with this MASSIVE OPPORTUNITY [EXPO]

Hints of CHINESE INVESTMENTS in CSE. This was sensed when honorable President REQUESTING THE CHINESES AMBASODOR "We need INVESTMENTS[FDIs + Equity] not LOANS". Chinese have invested in INDIAN STOCK MARKET and normally the CHINESE INVESTMENTS takes place by evaluating REGIONAL opportunity outlook.

Very low MARKET PE of 10 which is extremely low compared to similar FRONTIER/EMERGING market market PEs which sometimes are higher more than 16. [COMB 100 | LFIN 180 | VFIN 90 | LOLC 170]

Low interest rate of 4% ~ 5% p.a. offered by the Banks

ALERT - INCREMENTAL COLLECTION of VALUE GEMS in CSE is the KEY for SUPER NORMAL GAINS during the month of DECEMBER

Good Luck


COURTESY OF 'ONTHEMONEY'


_________________




The biggest risk in life is not taking any risk at all.

Thushara Ayya, shan31, agentnrox, Win Win, Wonderer and Kanishka_2020 like this post

2Market Opportunity on the way...... Empty Re: Market Opportunity on the way...... Wed Dec 16, 2020 9:57 am

samaritan


Moderator
Moderator
We have to note the fact, ASI recorded many HIGH all this way from Feb 2020 to now with significant foreign sales due to increased country risk. Recently Moody's have further downgraded it and time to come Fitch and other key rating agencies may downgrade by looking at Fiscal side of the economy. Similar types of downgrades recently happened in Pakistan but check what has happened to stocks. Nothing but stocks have unticked. I remember it happened to Bangladesh sometime back and see where Bangladesh is now

The foreign investment is NOT the only factor determining a market direction. The market is still in 11PE multiples which is extremely UNDERVALUED cf. peer markets. Given the BUDGET 2021 sets VERY STRONG SIGNAL for POLICY CONSISTANCY and INCENTIVES for EXPORTS/GROWTH BUSINESS SEGMENTS. Hence, BUDGET has made provisions for BUSINESS to GROW for a 3~4 year horizon. Given these facts, the EARNINGS POTENTIAL FOR COMPANIES technically has to be on the upside which ensure much higher EPS rewarding the investor.  

Foreign investments will revert back to emerging/frontier markets when factors influencing equities in developed markets becomes negative. For example, newly elected president it not in favor of equities and it is expected to impose taxes on US equities. This may shed funds in developed markets and shift them to emerging/frontier markets.

What is important is to know in depth of your invested companies especially future earnings growth potential, what are Capital Investments and strategies implemented to grow business and how emerging opportunities have open doors to outperform competition. There are companies having STRONG FUNDAMENTALS together with SUPER NORMAL GROWTH POTENTIAL primarily correlated to C19/Post C19 developments, US/China Trade War opportunities and Government Led Opportunities which are DIAMONDs.


COURTESY: ONTHE MONEY


_________________




The biggest risk in life is not taking any risk at all.

lbnnirmal, Kipling, judecroos, Wonderer and Accountant like this post

3Market Opportunity on the way...... Empty Re: Market Opportunity on the way...... Wed Dec 16, 2020 11:10 am

FireandWater


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
Thank you very much. Great job

4Market Opportunity on the way...... Empty Re: Market Opportunity on the way...... Fri Dec 25, 2020 5:59 pm

samaritan


Moderator
Moderator
Santa says: Market Opportunity on the way, Cheers!


Market Opportunity on the way...... 1608828605434?e=1611792000&v=beta&t=4m9Pern9RBI2n7qxiEl5Yodw7sXNbvi0v36w3dp3tpY

CSE's MARKET PE of 10 which is extremely low compared to similar FRONTIER/EMERGING markets which are more than 16.


_________________




The biggest risk in life is not taking any risk at all.

nigma and Bakkabwoi like this post

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