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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » Correction /pull back or profit taking~~~

Correction /pull back or profit taking~~~

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Eranga87


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
there is a proposal for a system to wash black money white. The government points out in the budget proposals a system where money invested could be set free by paying to the government 1% of the money invested. It means the budget is one that washes black money white.

I agreed with @kalu, December month most of them are still collecting. they really know that the next 2-month market again will boost with an earlier mentioned scenario. it's true. can hope smaller market correction. not so big. anyway, govt. take any necessary actions continuously secure market condition. next plan, foreign investment attracts via the capital market.

Kipling, judecroos, invest thinker, SL-INVESTOR, C.THARANGA, Sachira90 and CSEdeSILVA like this post

Equityinvestor


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@RJ1010 wrote:😄 well I have seen Kalu publish his essay a few times during past few days. I believe the general intention was to tell newbies not to fear of a market “crash”. I don’t think it was specifically aimed at you @dayandacool

I believe a market “crash” is unlikely in coming months. I wouldn’t certainly expect a market crash down to 4000 levels.
However the big question is how will the economy and market perform in 2021. That I’m afraid Kalu your Kalu salli story will not be able to salvage. Nor would the SL hnwi be able to support a stable economy in 2021.
I think someone posted already that the rupee depreciation has started. Yes that’s true. Anyone with a bit of economic knowledge knows what will happen in 2021. Yes inflation. Tighten your belts.
Will foreign investors come flocking to CSE like ANC expected in 2021? Highly unlikely. They will wait for ratings agencies to upgrade us. When govt takes more loans or print money in 2021 to payoff debt will ratings improve? Nada. The govt also lashed out at these agencies didn’t they 😅 yeah expect some tough love back.

I’m not saying 2021 will bring a doomsday but it certainly won’t be as bright as some expect or hope it would be.

So a balanced view and a cautious approach would be ideal.
For newbies... don’t expect market bull runs forever. Always look at how macro economies are performing. Be prepared with a action plan for bearish days.

Well said RJ. Good balanced view. 

Talking of being cautious, i heard BR saying next year is do or die for SL. If we do not move from chinese loans to FDI to repay loans, we are in trouble.

However we can expect this bunch to atleast do something, rather than the previous NATO bunch like economic maestro doc H de Zilva

Kipling and RJ1010 like this post

dayandacool


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@RJ1010 wrote:😄 well I have seen Kalu publish his essay a few times during past few days. I believe the general intention was to tell newbies not to fear of a market “crash”. I don’t think it was specifically aimed at you @dayandacool

I believe a market “crash” is unlikely in coming months. I wouldn’t certainly expect a market crash down to 4000 levels.
However the big question is how will the economy and market perform in 2021. That I’m afraid Kalu your Kalu salli story will not be able to salvage. Nor would the SL hnwi be able to support a stable economy in 2021.
I think someone posted already that the rupee depreciation has started. Yes that’s true. Anyone with a bit of economic knowledge knows what will happen in 2021. Yes inflation. Tighten your belts.
Will foreign investors come flocking to CSE like ANC expected in 2021? Highly unlikely. They will wait for ratings agencies to upgrade us. When govt takes more loans or print money in 2021 to payoff debt will ratings improve? Nada. The govt also lashed out at these agencies didn’t they 😅 yeah expect some tough love back.

I’m not saying 2021 will bring a doomsday but it certainly won’t be as bright as some expect or hope it would be.

So a balanced view and a cautious approach would be ideal.
For newbies... don’t expect market bull runs forever. Always look at how macro economies are performing. Be prepared with a action plan for bearish days.

RJ, Caution is what has kept us in the game. Non of us speak of market crashes. But speaking of a Disneyland when all you get is Siberia is a crime on the newbies. There were lot of them who bought at 2012 highs, and there will be a lot this time as well. Someone who expects a super economy by 2021 when government is printing money to pay external debt is surely a candidate for a visit to the Psychiatrist!!! Very Happy



Last edited by dayandacool on Tue Dec 15, 2020 8:29 pm; edited 1 time in total

RJ1010 and Bakkabwoi like this post

judecroos


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Eranga87 wrote:there is a proposal for a system to wash black money white. The government points out in the budget proposals a system where money invested could be set free by paying to the government 1% of the money invested. It means the budget is one that washes black money white.

I agreed with @kalu, December month most of them are still collecting. they really know that the next 2-month market again will boost with an earlier mentioned scenario. it's true. can hope smaller market correction. not so big. anyway, govt. take any necessary actions continuously secure market condition. next plan, foreign investment attracts via the capital market.
I totally agree with you.

Kipling and Eranga87 like this post

Kipling


Expert
Expert
In a situation like this no one can say for sure market will boom crash or stagnate. Ultimately it is the view you take (& invest accordingly). I believe the play safe option while preserving capital could also lead you to miss out on a massive boom.
I have high respect for RJ Dcool & JC. In this instance I go with Eranga call.
Please get in Twitter guys & locate feeds of Imtiaz Buhardeen. His target for next year 10.000+++. Many big fish (some do not use real names) agree including NP.
Btw I have confirmed that IB really big fish now with 35+ years CSE experience. Told pretty sincere. 
Just my 2 dumb cents.

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Bakkabwoi

Bakkabwoi
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@Kipling wrote:In a situation like this no one can say for sure market will boom crash or stagnate. Ultimately it is the view you take (& invest accordingly). I believe the play safe option while preserving capital could also lead you to miss out on a massive boom.
I have high respect for RJ Dcool & JC. In this instance I go with Eranga call.
Please get in Twitter guys & locate feeds of Imtiaz Buhardeen. His target for next year 10.000+++. Many big fish (some do not use real names) agree including NP.
Btw I have confirmed that IB really big fish now with 35+ years CSE experience. Told pretty sincere. 
Just my 2 dumb cents.

agreed... i recently had two words with him. he meant the same...and he is pretty sure this is just a draw back..nhothing more ! cheers

Kipling likes this post

RJ1010


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Yes knowing CSE there may be many underhand dealings. Rumors of black money also may be true. This govt will somehow manage to stay afloat is my guess. Next 3 months scenario mentioned by Eranga I too believe in. Later part of 2021 will be the uncertainty period which I actually don’t have much confidence.

geesura likes this post

geesura

geesura
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@RJ1010 wrote:Yes knowing CSE there may be many underhand dealings. Rumors of black money also may be true. This govt will somehow manage to stay afloat is my guess. Next 3 months scenario mentioned by Eranga I too believe in. Later part of 2021 will be the uncertainty period which I actually don’t have much confidence.
absolutely RJ now the public is losing confidence in the government.on the other hand, opposition is trying to reap benefits from government mistakes .stock market is one of the key indicators of the country's economy.so if that also goes wrong government has no option other than accepting ස fail.so they will not let the market crash sooner.
and when talking about money printing it's not only in
 Sri Lanka even in the USA the money printing is at it all-time highs .so not only the SL economy gonna collapse but the world economy too.
and as a fact, tesla shorters lost more than the US airline industry this year .

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dayandacool

dayandacool
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@RJ1010 wrote:Yes knowing CSE there may be many underhand dealings. Rumors of black money also may be true. This govt will somehow manage to stay afloat is my guess. Next 3 months scenario mentioned by Eranga I too believe in. Later part of 2021 will be the uncertainty period which I actually don’t have much confidence.

Sri lanka's external debt obligation stands at USD 23.2 Billion between 2021-2025. that amounts to roughly USD 4 billion annually.Our gross foreign reserves were down to merely USD 5.9 billion with an import cover of just 4.2 months as of October 2020 and it must have further gone down now as I don't have official info at present. Our next largest debt repayment is due in July 2021 of about USD 1 billion. So yes, your time line of uncertainty in later part of 2021 does match with the external debt obligations.

They talk about Samurai and Panda bonds.They talk about currency swaps and they want Country's stock exchange to attract FDI's yet they blame Ratings!!! Shocked Shocked Shocked Looking at daily net foreign sales indicates us a different story.  

If anyone is interested please read both sides of the story!!!
 
http://www.ft.lk/top-story/Exploring-all-options-to-repay-4-5-b-in-2021-Govt/26-706850

https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/fitch-downgrades-sri-lanka-to-ccc-27-11-2020

https://www.treasury.gov.lk/news/article/27112020

RJ1010 and Kanishka_2020 like this post

Kipling


Expert
Expert
Dcool Dear Friend. 
I cannot dispute your facts as they are facts. 
The following is strictly politically neutral though I have never concealed my support for R Regime primarily because YP was an unmitigated disaster. 
I know many who should have had excellent information tell me in December 2008 war was Not winnable. So it just maybe the R Regime will fix this problem.
We might be in for a big surprise. Sometimes it just luck in that the external environment favours.

dayandacool likes this post

dayandacool

dayandacool
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@geesura wrote:
@RJ1010 wrote:Yes knowing CSE there may be many underhand dealings. Rumors of black money also may be true. This govt will somehow manage to stay afloat is my guess. Next 3 months scenario mentioned by Eranga I too believe in. Later part of 2021 will be the uncertainty period which I actually don’t have much confidence.
absolutely RJ now the public is losing confidence in the government.on the other hand, opposition is trying to reap benefits from government mistakes .stock market is one of the key indicators of the country's economy.so if that also goes wrong government has no option other than accepting ස fail.so they will not let the market crash sooner.
and when talking about money printing it's not only in
 Sri Lanka even in the USA the money printing is at it all-time highs .so not only the SL economy gonna collapse but the world economy too.
and as a fact, tesla shorters lost more than the US airline industry this year .
@geesura

Issue is we can't compare the Greenback with LKR. Unlike US, we run the risk of Hyperinflation if we continuously print money.  Neutral Neutral Not saying that it's the case with us but it has happened to countries with poor monetary policies before.

dayandacool

dayandacool
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Kipling wrote:Dcool Dear Friend. 
I cannot dispute your facts as they are facts. 
The following is strictly politically neutral though I have never concealed my support for R Regime primarily because YP was an unmitigated disaster. 
I know many who should have had excellent information tell me in December 2008 war was Not winnable. So it just maybe the R Regime will fix this problem.
We might be in for a big surprise. Sometimes it just luck in that the external environment favours.
Dear Kipling, I respect you, I would put YP government as the major contributor to the present crisis as they took over the country at a stage where something could have been done to make things right. Not shying away in saying the previous MR regime did an awfully lot to set us up in China's cradle of debt. Prior to 2005 too we were in debt to the whole world. But why on earth we accumulated so much debt in the name of development even after finishing a 3 decade long war??

You will think twice of repayment that includes interest before you obtain a loan right? I will because it's me who is going to repay at the end of the day. But the problem with our country's politicians is that they obtain loans without thinking twice because they know that it's not them who's paying the debt, but it's people like you, me and the rest of the public. 

and you know what's funny? Now they say that the cabinet has decided not to obtain further loans for development. How funny is that when people like you and I both know that it's not that the government has decided not to go for loans but they simply can't obtain more loans due to the simple fact that no entity with a sound policy wouldn't risk offering us more loans cos we simply can't afford to pay them. Alas!!! they know what our brilliant politicians don't know or acting as if they don't know I would say!!! Rolling Eyes Rolling Eyes

For the sake of this country, Lets hope and pray that you are correct and the Luck and rub of the green you mentioned is with us cos what ever the little this government has showcased us tells us we need it badly!!!

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ONTHEMONEY


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@dayandacool wrote:
@RJ1010 wrote:Yes knowing CSE there may be many underhand dealings. Rumors of black money also may be true. This govt will somehow manage to stay afloat is my guess. Next 3 months scenario mentioned by Eranga I too believe in. Later part of 2021 will be the uncertainty period which I actually don’t have much confidence.

Sri lanka's external debt obligation stands at USD 23.2 Billion between 2021-2025. that amounts to roughly USD 4 billion annually.Our gross foreign reserves were down to merely USD 5.9 billion with an import cover of just 4.2 months as of October 2020 and it must have further gone down now as I don't have official info at present. Our next largest debt repayment is due in July 2021 of about USD 1 billion. So yes, your time line of uncertainty in later part of 2021 does match with the external debt obligations.

They talk about Samurai and Panda bonds.They talk about currency swaps and they want Country's stock exchange to attract FDI's yet they blame Ratings!!! Shocked Shocked Shocked Looking at daily net foreign sales indicates us a different story.  

If anyone is interested please read both sides of the story!!!
 
http://www.ft.lk/top-story/Exploring-all-options-to-repay-4-5-b-in-2021-Govt/26-706850

https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/fitch-downgrades-sri-lanka-to-ccc-27-11-2020

https://www.treasury.gov.lk/news/article/27112020
Hi all,

I respect your view. However, I wish counter with my thoughts about the CSE now.

I am not surprised by these types of developments in the economy given the context the country had to go through and poor management as well. What is important is to see about the how to overcome and future prospects based on new policies led by the present Government, which I personally have RELATIVE CREDIBILITY than in past REGIMES. In large, a Bilateral solution together with IMF program supporting partially will provide a solution for Sri Lanka to MANAGE DEBT REPAYMENTS falling in next year. This I feel is highly likely with the type of relationship SL have with China/India.



We have to note the fact, ASI recorded many HIGH all this way from Feb 2020 to now with significant foreign sales due to increased country risk. Recently Moody's have further downgraded it and time to come Fitch and other key rating agencies may downgrade by looking at Fiscal side of the economy. Similar types of downgrades recently happened in Pakistan but check what has happened to stocks. Nothing but stocks have unticked. I remember it happened to Bangladesh sometime back and see where Bangladesh is now

The foreign investment is NOT the only factor determining a market direction. The market is still in 11PE multiples which is extremely UNDERVALUED cf. peer markets. Given the BUDGET 2021 sets VERY STRONG SIGNAL for POLICY CONSISTANCY and INCENTIVES for EXPORTS/GROWTH BUSINESS SEGMENTS. Hence, BUDGET has made provisions for BUSINESS to GROW for a 3~4 year horizon. Given these facts, the EARNINGS POTENTIAL FOR COMPANIES technically has to be on the upside which ensure much higher EPS rewarding the investor.  

Foreign investments will revert back to emerging/frontier markets when factors influencing equities in developed markets becomes negative. For example, newly elected president it not in favor of equities and it is expected to impose taxes on US equities. This may shed funds in developed markets and shift them to emerging/frontier markets.

What is important is to know in depth of your invested companies especially future earnings growth potential, what are Capital Investments and strategies implemented to grow business and how emerging opportunities have open doors to outperform competition. There are companies having STRONG FUNDAMENTALS together with SUPER NORMAL GROWTH POTENTIAL primarily correlated to C19/Post C19 developments, US/China Trade War opportunities and Government Led Opportunities which are DIAMONDs.

This view may be not the traditional method of looking at companies

Good Luck

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