BFL - Most neglected Stock in the market

BFL seems to be in the down fall over last few weeks loosing 22% in just one month with very little number of shares were being traded on each days.

the RSI stands second only to UML from the bottom.

I'm just thinking of the behaviour of this share, is this so bad at this level or are they doing bad in their business. The recent annual report came out seems to be better, with several investment moves.

Please share your view on this stock.

Do not consider this as buy/sell recommendation or promotional post.

tinyman wrote:BFL seems to be in the down fall over last few weeks loosing 22% in just one month with very little number of shares were being traded on each days.

the RSI stands second only to UML from the bottom.

I'm just thinking of the behaviour of this share, is this so bad at this level or are they doing bad in their business. The recent annual report came out seems to be better, with several investment moves.

Please share your view on this stock.

Do not consider this as buy/sell recommendation or promotional post.

Yes down much and I always keep an eye on BFL and I think most of us know now BFL is a bit undervalued at this moment, better to be on alert for next move, if there's some serious interest building up it might go back to 400s again easily! That's a 25% gain! I'm not recommending this but bfl is a stock to watch or to hold in longer run!

Most neglected stock

A stock and sector that has been hugely discussed and promoted in the last year and even hugely in this forum and you call is been neglected?
In a years time this stock appreciated over 2000% when the earnings appreciated about 250%!!
In normal logic this considering the price rise for earnings it should be trading below Rs 100!( Around rs 50 on that logic)

BFL is a in a sector that deserve the lowest PE ratio, lower than plantation sector because of its uncertainty and the huge earning fluctuations and the inherent dangers !! But thanks to the huge promoting campaign the people have foreign all about these!

Lets wait and see when next bird flue or alternative to chicken ( Fish,soya) comes to the market or when some government health inspector give some negative rep to see how these sector stocks nose dive! Will be a great lesson to all!

Rajitha wrote:Most neglected stock

A stock and sector that has been hugely discussed and promoted in the last year and even hugely in this forum and you call is been neglected?
In a years time this stock appreciated over 2000% when the earnings appreciated about 250%!!
In normal logic this considering the price rise for earnings it should be trading below Rs 100!( Around rs 50 on that logic)

BFL is a in a sector that deserve the lowest PE ratio, lower than plantation sector because of its uncertainty and the huge earning fluctuations and the inherent dangers !! But thanks to the huge promoting campaign the people have foreign all about these!

Lets wait and see when next bird flue or alternative to chicken ( Fish,soya) comes to the market or when some government health inspector give some negative rep to see how these sector stocks nose dive! Will be a great lesson to all!

Being a big fan of your comments, I really enjoyed your explanations.

One thing I noticed is that you have some good knowledge on the plantation sector, I remember you got into some argument with other members about the rubber prices some time ago.

The term "most neglected" referred to the recent down fall and the very little discussion in the forum.

Hi, Can anyone advice what sector or stock or company is uncertain or has no business risk? , If the banking sector is imposed negative govt regulation it will go down, If the Finance sector has a fraude like golden key or sakvithi for what ever the reason people will pull money , plantations we have discussed, F&B is with competition or might face what Rajitha has mentioned etc etc So what do investors do?

I feel the best way is to buy value stock looking at its ability for growth in revenue in the future , ROI and also its PE and PBV. IN the shortrun all these uncertainties will prevail like in the past and we can not stop it.

suja wrote:Hi, Can anyone advice what sector or stock or company is uncertain or has no business risk? , If the banking sector is imposed negative govt regulation it will go down, If the Finance sector has a fraude like golden key or sakvithi for what ever the reason people will pull money , plantations we have discussed, F&B is with competition or might face what Rajitha has mentioned etc etc So what do investors do?

I feel the best way is to buy value stock looking at its ability for growth in revenue in the future , ROI and also its PE and PBV. IN the shortrun all these uncertainties will prevail like in the past and we can not stop it.

every business, sector, industry and firms have their own risks. investing is a art of doing the best. I'm thinking of adopting CAN SLIM model. don't know how successful it will be.

Rajitha wrote:Most neglected stock

A stock and sector that has been hugely discussed and promoted in the last year and even hugely in this forum and you call is been neglected?
In a years time this stock appreciated over 2000% when the earnings appreciated about 250%!!
In normal logic this considering the price rise for earnings it should be trading below Rs 100!( Around rs 50 on that logic)

BFL is a in a sector that deserve the lowest PE ratio, lower than plantation sector because of its uncertainty and the huge earning fluctuations and the inherent dangers !! But thanks to the huge promoting campaign the people have foreign all about these!

Lets wait and see when next bird flue or alternative to chicken ( Fish,soya) comes to the market or when some government health inspector give some negative rep to see how these sector stocks nose dive! Will be a great lesson to all!

I too hold some BFL shares , but above statement is very correct. We all can remember share price was under 100 last year, but in other had we saw share was trading above 400 with massive volumes involved some Govt funds ( ETF ) and big invest firms (Perpetual). So I think price will shoot very soon. ( Once the Mkt start pick-up )

All the industries have a certain amount of risk involved with that. Have you heard about any companies which went bankrupt because of the bird flue or soya? Did you obviously think that there will be any chicken substitutes in the short run? It has been there for at least hundreds of years and chicken will always be chicken.
Didn't the plantation stocks go down when the wage hike issue came?
What about tea prices?
and what about chicken prices?
and don't you see people eat more sausages/ham/fried rice or whatever which contains chicken than before if we go few years back?

themask wrote:don't you see people eat more sausages/ham/fried rice or whatever which contains chicken than before if we go few years back?

I have witnessed the piece of Chicken getting smaller & smaller day by day in our Lunch Packets...

themask wrote:All the industries have a certain amount of risk involved with that. Have you heard about any companies which went bankrupt because of the bird flue or soya? Did you obviously think that there will be any chicken substitutes in the short run? It has been there for at least hundreds of years and chicken will always be chicken.
Didn't the plantation stocks go down when the wage hike issue came?
What about tea prices?
and what about chicken prices?
and don't you see people eat more sausages/ham/fried rice or whatever which contains chicken than before if we go few years back?

GO check TAFL old financial reports and also its announcements! Specially READ with care the part about SERIOUS LOSS OF CAPITAL !!

Yes every sector has risk but its how much risk is the problem! Every person can get in an accident but that does not mean you should walk blindfolded in a highway!! When its comes to the poultry sector the uncertainty and risks are there to be seen in plain sight if people are not so blind by the Mask the promoters have put on them!!
For example how did the most famous stock here fared last quarter compared with its previous quarter? I can remember so many justifications why it happened! Think about them!!

This is how everybody is feeling about their favourite stock my friend. It is inevitable to think like that when their lovable stock is going down and always sees as most neglected,most undervalued etc.

Had some spare time.

Things to note:
* No considerable growth in turnover compared to earnings or share price
* GP helped by reduced % of COS
* Cost reductions improving Earnings considerably
* Great Equity position
* Large improvements in ROE, ROA & Current Asset ratio
* Extremely low gearing

The March quarter accounted for almost half the earnings in the year. So the improvement possibly started from then onwards. The share price would have started moving up after continuous good results indicating sustainability

Rajitha wrote:

Lets wait and see when next bird flue or alternative to chicken ( Fish,soya) comes to the market or when some government health inspector give some negative rep to see how these sector stocks nose dive! Will be a great lesson to all!

An alternative to chicken in this country.

If you're going to be out right negative out something at least mask your prejudice with something mildly realistic.

The basically the way i see it the problem is pretty simple.

Maize is expensive in the world market.

http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=corn&months=12

This is what had cause the last big dip in poultry prices and this is what caused TAFL & GRAN problems this year as well. But the problem was aggravated by flooding in this country which all but obliterated the local crop as well.

BFL on the other hand relied less on imported maize so the loss they had to bear was less. that's why BFL was able to salvage something in their Fin reports.

Now alot depends on what the local maize harvest looks like. if the harvest is good companies like BFL & TAFL will show substantially better performance than last quarter.

npp wrote:Had some spare time.

Things to note:
* No considerable growth in turnover compared to earnings or share price
* GP helped by reduced % of COS
* Cost reductions improving Earnings considerably
* Great Equity position
* Large improvements in ROE, ROA & Current Asset ratio
* Extremely low gearing

The March quarter accounted for almost half the earnings in the year. So the improvement possibly started from then onwards. The share price would have started moving up after continuous good results indicating sustainability

23% growth in Topline is significant, isn't it

In any share there are risks involved. Share lovers will highlight positive factors while share dislikers will highlight negative factors.
As readers we can compare both sides to find the balance. I recognize that different people like different shares .


Now to determine whether a share is a good investment to enter ( medium to long term. Short term is a different story and their game is different) we can look at certain factors. This is true for any share and to start off we can look at

1) Does this share currently have financial performance to validate the market price? Does PE ( Nav if related) balance sheets, statistics ( ROE, quick ratio, debt ratios etc etc) look good

2) Is the company in good financial standing with clear visibility to share holder. How does it compare to sector and market
3) Does this share have future growth prospects and the industry sustainable
4) Does the company identify risks involve in the trade and what have they done for risk management
5) Does the share have interests by different parties ( retailers, Big shots and institutions)
6) Does is have good leader ship to steer in forward and get it back on track in situations of crisis


Now where does BFL stand?

Again I reiterate Short term is a different story. I am talking medium to long term. For short term , some techincal players might swear that they even don't need to know the name or look at any fundamentals to find the entry and exit points.

slstock , just a clarification, so short term technical guys will stay away from this stock is that what you are saying above.

suja wrote:slstock , just a clarification, so short term technical guys will stay away from this stock is that what you are saying above.

Nope what I was saying is the facts I mentioned is appropriate for medium to long term players.

Short term strategies are different as they enter and exit differently. One can look at RSI, bollinger bands, money flow, MACD, stocastics, ( many other statistical tools) , identify the patterns etc to do.

BTW, even for longterm players , knowing technicals and patterns is good to figure out an entry price .

It can be clearly seen that some stocks being idling and then most strategic investors jump into. When they become active lots of stories creating around and buying in that condition leads to tears.This true not only for BFL but also some of other valuable stocks.

Good Luck

mono wrote:

Rajitha wrote:

Lets wait and see when next bird flue or alternative to chicken ( Fish,soya) comes to the market or when some government health inspector give some negative rep to see how these sector stocks nose dive! Will be a great lesson to all!

An alternative to chicken in this country.

If you're going to be out right negative out something at least mask your prejudice with something mildly realistic.

I'm sure he will suggest Rubber is an alternative to Chicken next time. But even 1 KG of a rubber is higher than chicken. Then we can consider rubber leaves probably

I'm not bother about this guy since he post a thread on KGAL expecting a quarterly EPS of 20 or some unrealistc value!!!!!!!!!!

No one should interrupt his rubber dreams by making him upset with chicken, he Doesn't even like the smell

RockStock wrote:

mono wrote:

Rajitha wrote:

Lets wait and see when next bird flue or alternative to chicken ( Fish,soya) comes to the market or when some government health inspector give some negative rep to see how these sector stocks nose dive! Will be a great lesson to all!

An alternative to chicken in this country.

If you're going to be out right negative out something at least mask your prejudice with something mildly realistic.

I'm sure he will suggest Rubber is an alternative to Chicken next time. But even 1 KG of a rubber is higher than chicken. Then we can consider rubber leaves probably

I'm not bother about this guy since he post a thread on KGAL expecting a quarterly EPS of 20 or some unrealistc value!!!!!!!!!!

No one should interrupt his rubber dreams by making him upset with chicken, he Doesn't even like the smell

You really do seems to come under once I mentioned under shoe shinning boys article I'm afraid! The KGAL EPS of 20 was given as a joke to the GRAN quarterly earning of this months showing almost same or better result as December quarter!
OFC BFL might go up because it has collapsed a lot in the market downturn but that is true for 90% of the stocks in the market! Also everything I expected about Rubber stocks have happened as I expected and so does about your precious poultry stocks! I'm not as mentally handicapped like you to suggest rubber for chicken consumption!

Maybe a alternative to chicken might be slow to come to a country like SL but chicken flue sure as hell not!! I even saw some guy posting here he got some local news about chicken flue although I don't know how true that it.

tinyman wrote:

npp wrote:Had some spare time.

Things to note:
* No considerable growth in turnover compared to earnings or share price
* GP helped by reduced % of COS
* Cost reductions improving Earnings considerably
* Great Equity position
* Large improvements in ROE, ROA & Current Asset ratio
* Extremely low gearing

The March quarter accounted for almost half the earnings in the year. So the improvement possibly started from then onwards. The share price would have started moving up after continuous good results indicating sustainability

23% growth in Topline is significant, isn't it

it definitely is. but the bottomline is not totally as a result of that.
So it shows how efficient the company has become thereby producing excellent results.

RockStock wrote:

mono wrote:

Rajitha wrote:

Lets wait and see when next bird flue or alternative to chicken ( Fish,soya) comes to the market or when some government health inspector give some negative rep to see how these sector stocks nose dive! Will be a great lesson to all!

An alternative to chicken in this country.

If you're going to be out right negative out something at least mask your prejudice with something mildly realistic.

I'm sure he will suggest Rubber is an alternative to Chicken next time. But even 1 KG of a rubber is higher than chicken. Then we can consider rubber leaves probably

I'm not bother about this guy since he post a thread on KGAL expecting a quarterly EPS of 20 or some unrealistc value!!!!!!!!!!

No one should interrupt his rubber dreams by making him upset with chicken, he Doesn't even like the smell

Are you trying to make holes in his rubber? we will get more future members with same brilliance

Chinwi wrote:

RockStock wrote:

mono wrote:

Rajitha wrote:

Lets wait and see when next bird flue or alternative to chicken ( Fish,soya) comes to the market or when some government health inspector give some negative rep to see how these sector stocks nose dive! Will be a great lesson to all!

An alternative to chicken in this country.

If you're going to be out right negative out something at least mask your prejudice with something mildly realistic.

I'm sure he will suggest Rubber is an alternative to Chicken next time. But even 1 KG of a rubber is higher than chicken. Then we can consider rubber leaves probably

I'm not bother about this guy since he post a thread on KGAL expecting a quarterly EPS of 20 or some unrealistc value!!!!!!!!!!

No one should interrupt his rubber dreams by making him upset with chicken, he Doesn't even like the smell

Are you trying to make holes in his rubber? we will get more future members with same brilliance

Yes, He thinks he is mastered in the game and all others are shoe shining boys. I'm sure with his brilliance he must be a billionaire now, and wasting his precious time in these public forums.

Chinwi wrote:

RockStock wrote:

mono wrote:

Rajitha wrote:

Lets wait and see when next bird flue or alternative to chicken ( Fish,soya) comes to the market or when some government health inspector give some negative rep to see how these sector stocks nose dive! Will be a great lesson to all!

An alternative to chicken in this country.

If you're going to be out right negative out something at least mask your prejudice with something mildly realistic.

I'm sure he will suggest Rubber is an alternative to Chicken next time. But even 1 KG of a rubber is higher than chicken. Then we can consider rubber leaves probably

I'm not bother about this guy since he post a thread on KGAL expecting a quarterly EPS of 20 or some unrealistc value!!!!!!!!!!

No one should interrupt his rubber dreams by making him upset with chicken, he Doesn't even like the smell

Are you trying to make holes in his rubber? we will get more future members with same brilliance

now now don't say naughty things.