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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » CSE Top Shareholders - Daily Performance

CSE Top Shareholders - Daily Performance

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madukp


Expert
Expert
@topgun86 wrote:
@Junior investor wrote:is this ''return percentage'' mean relative to the total amount that someone has invested?

return % එක අරන් තියෙන්නෙ ආයෝජකයෙක් දාපු සම්පූර්න මුදලට සාපේක්ශවද?

Just the return for the last 30 days is available in this report

I thought the return for last 03 months. Is that only for month of JAN?

Impressive figures with some of CSE listed entities.

@topgun86 - Would you mind shed your expertise here and give some hints?

What I see is impressive earnings with VONE and LOLC.

topgun86 likes this post

topgun86


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
Yes, very impressive last 30 days, can generate different performance reports so can post accordingly.

We can probably tell which stocks helped with the gains Wink

Few local companies and individuals were found to have maintained a consistent performance over years, so they encourage more analysis, it's great to see how much people might have made but recent enormous gains and quality stock picking are not mutually exclusive.

I'm interested to know what type of data points you'd find interesting in future reports.

madukp likes this post

madukp


Expert
Expert
@topgun86 wrote:Yes, very impressive last 30 days, can generate different performance reports so can post accordingly.

We can probably tell which stocks helped with the gains Wink

Few local companies and individuals were found to have maintained a consistent performance over years, so they encourage more analysis, it's great to see how much people might have made but recent enormous gains and quality stock picking are not mutually exclusive.

I'm interested to know what type of data points you'd find interesting in future reports.

I will follow the gains of CSE listed companies as well as how individuals gain their profits and the way they realize the profit. Further, capital gains may lead to good dividends. All these will help us as factors when buying/selling stocks.

topgun86 likes this post

topgun86


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
1-Feb-2021 page 1 screenshot, PM me for the full daily report.
CSE Top Shareholders - Daily Performance - Page 2 D2134a10

madukp likes this post

snipo


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
@topgun86 wrote:1-Feb-2021 page 1 screenshot, PM me for the full daily report.
CSE Top Shareholders - Daily Performance - Page 2 D2134a10

 Very interesting... Thanks for the info @topgun86

topgun86 likes this post

madukp


Expert
Expert
@topgun86 wrote:1-Feb-2021 page 1 screenshot, PM me for the full daily report.
CSE Top Shareholders - Daily Performance - Page 2 D2134a10

Thanks, bro, Could you please update the drive?

topgun86 likes this post

topgun86


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
hey dude, gave you access to the folder now which will be updated daily 😁

madukp likes this post

topgun86


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
2-Feb-2021 page 1 screenshot, pm me for the full daily report

CSE Top Shareholders - Daily Performance - Page 2 42450210

RJ1010


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@topgun86 wrote:2-Feb-2021 page 1 screenshot, pm me for the full daily report

CSE Top Shareholders - Daily Performance - Page 2 42450210

Pls pm me the link too.. thanks in advance

topgun86


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
hey  @RJ1010 since i'm new i can't sent pms, drop me your contact and i'll sent it across Smile

madukp


Expert
Expert
@topgun86 wrote:hey dude, gave you access to the folder now which will be updated daily 😁

Thanks a bunch! This is awesome Smile

topgun86 likes this post

topgun86


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
3-Feb-2021 page 1 screenshot

CSE Top Shareholders - Daily Performance - Page 2 Cf8cf410

topgun86


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
5-Feb-2021 page 1 screenshot

CSE Top Shareholders - Daily Performance - Page 2 Cb54e810

topgun86


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
8-Feb-2021 page 1 sample

CSE Top Shareholders - Daily Performance - Page 2 3bbd9510

topgun86


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
Is the ETF bullish Shocked , or just plain bullheaded silent ?


The ETF, otherwise known as the Employees Trust Fund Board has returned a measly 3.2% on some Rs. 11.71 billion as of today2, this compared to a market that has broken multiple all-time highs within a very short period, such activity helped push the portfolio up by Rs. 1.32 billion from a loss of Rs. 950 million just a month back.

Rs. 1.11 billion has been invested during the past few quarters, the ETF is on the buying3 side and during a rally that means they are averaging up, riding the bullish trend, taking profit on some and buckling down into others, hint; they’ve been moving heavily into the banking sector.

If one is to dive into past success, look no further than Dipped1 which returned the portfolio over Rs. 100 million doubling their investment when it started selling this quarter, this whittled down their holdings to just 13.4% from the peak, positively excellent returns had the stock peaked, but as those familiar with the market would know, DIPD surged 320% to over 700 since it was sold, making that an 800 million rupee lesson in market timing, on the buy side was Arrc Capital Private Limited4 who entered with 426,894 shares at a cost price est. at 166, good on them!

Is the ETF buying drive the shining beacon that will push the Colombo Stock Exchange to greater heights, or is it the proverbial canary in the coal mine.


  1. return based on the volume weighted prices on shareholding dated 30 September 2020, note that most of the stocks in the ETF portfolio, were acquired prior to 31 March 2017 which is our base quarter so an accurate picture of their investments cannot be determined
  2. last close as at Friday, the 5th February 2021
  3. buying as at 30 September 2020, the upcoming statements will determine whether this holds true
  4. it is not suggested that the ETF sold to Arrc Capital

topgun86


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
Is EXPO still worth it Wink , one private company doubles down cheers


Hotel International is a private company that prior to the rally had a less than stellar portfolio with many stocks being held for years, but last year it snapped up a Rs. 25 million1 stake in EXPO at around 7 inching itself onto the Top 20, despite the stock having already bolted 300% from a low of 1.70 in May which would have looked risky to most, so it could be asked how a private company with a limited track record made one of the best short term investments in recent history especially since as of the most recent2 filing they infused another Rs. 100 million3 at a cost price of around 20 per share; upping their holdings to 8 million shares and places them at the No. 5 position up from No. 19 on the list, conservatively netting them in total over Rs. 350 million4 in profit as per my estimate.


Question is, are they still holding and what’s their exit price?




1 based on the volume weighted prices on shareholding dated 30 September 2020
2 holdings as at 30 December 2020
3 based on the volume weighted prices on shareholding dated 30 December 2020
4 calculated on the last close as at Monday, the 8th February 2021

topgun86


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
CSE Top Shareholders - Daily Performance - Page 2 3c9f9e10

topgun86


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
CSE Top Shareholders - Daily Performance - Page 2 A2842a10

topgun86


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
CSE Top Shareholders - Daily Performance - Page 2 072a6e10

topgun86


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
CTC and LION languish Idea , aggressive South African fund holding at No .3 Basketball


Allan Gray1 is one of the few foreign funds that has been aggressively buying upwards of Rs. 4 billion since early 2019, a new entrant to the Colombo Stock Exchange.

HQ’d in South Africa, the fund invests2 in frontier markets and ranks Sri Lanka at No. 6 on their portfolio with a 7.7% allocation, primarily in Ceylon Tobacco3 and Lion Brewery4 spread equally and as of the latest5 filing, Allan Gray’s holdings have moved up to the No. 3 position in both, despite this both index heavyweights have languished, underperforming the benchmark that has doubled in recent times.

Consider this, the fund has consistently generated alpha6 globally on average beating the benchmark by multiples, the high allocation and the fact that market pundits haven’t written off the index, it would be prudent to suggest that Allan Gray share that opinion.





1 Allan Gray Frontier Markets Equity Fund Limited
2 [url=https://www.allangray.co.za/globalassets/documents-repository/fund/factsheet/Allan Gray Frontier Markets Equity Fund (USD) (Class C)/Latest/Allan Gray Frontier Markets Equity Fund (USD) (Class C) Latest.pdf]source document[/url]
3 CTC.N0000
4 LION.N0000
5 Lion Brewery as at  31-Dec-2020 and Ceylon Tobacco 30-Sep-2020
6 alpha is the performance difference as compared with the benchmark

41CSE Top Shareholders - Daily Performance - Page 2 Empty Ceybank and NSB sold, then VONE surged Sun Feb 14, 2021 3:35 pm

topgun86


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
Ceybank and NSB sold silent , then VONE surged bounce

Ceybank Unit Trust and the National Savings Bank who together have invested some Rs. 8 billion in the Colombo Stock Exchange have collectively lost over Rs. 500 million in potential profit when they simultaneously started exiting1 a long held position in Vallibel One2 by as much as 40%, a  staggering amount.

Shortly after, Vallibel One which was approximately3 entered at a cost of Rs. 18 surged to a high of Rs. 95 before settling at 66.

If not for the release of over 7 million shares to the public during October to December, would the stock have surged and could the activity of Ceybank and NSB be a tell? 




1 QoQ change as at 30-Dec-2020
2 VONE.N0000
3 both held prior to 31-Mar-2017 which is the base holding date, so the real cost will differ from that stated 

topgun86


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
15-Feb page 1 sample screenshot, pm me to get the full report
CSE Top Shareholders - Daily Performance - Page 2 92d09e10

topgun86


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
@geesura do send me your contact so I can share the report, since I’m new I can’t respond to your pm

topgun86


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
16-Feb page 1 sample, pm me your contact so I can share the google drive link to the full daily report

CSE Top Shareholders - Daily Performance - Page 2 24003d10

topgun86


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
@topgun86 wrote:CTC and LION languish Idea , aggressive South African fund holding at No .3 Basketball


Allan Gray1 is one of the few foreign funds that has been aggressively buying upwards of Rs. 4 billion since early 2019, a new entrant to the Colombo Stock Exchange.

HQ’d in South Africa, the fund invests2 in frontier markets and ranks Sri Lanka at No. 6 on their portfolio with a 7.7% allocation, primarily in Ceylon Tobacco3 and Lion Brewery4 spread equally and as of the latest5 filing, Allan Gray’s holdings have moved up to the No. 3 position in both, despite this both index heavyweights have languished, underperforming the benchmark that has doubled in recent times.

Consider this, the fund has consistently generated alpha6 globally on average beating the benchmark by multiples, the high allocation and the fact that market pundits haven’t written off the index, it would be prudent to suggest that Allan Gray share that opinion.





1 Allan Gray Frontier Markets Equity Fund Limited
2 [url=https://www.allangray.co.za/globalassets/documents-repository/fund/factsheet/Allan Gray Frontier Markets Equity Fund (USD) (Class C)/Latest/Allan Gray Frontier Markets Equity Fund (USD) (Class C) Latest.pdf]source document[/url]
3 CTC.N0000
4 LION.N0000
5 Lion Brewery as at  31-Dec-2020 and Ceylon Tobacco 30-Sep-2020
6 alpha is the performance difference as compared with the benchmark


Allan Grey dived deeper into Sri Lanka by buying up over Rs. 235 million1 in CTC and Rs. 484 million1 in LION thus upping their stakes by double digits which makes for an encouraging assessment of the Colombo Stock Exchange especially considering the current climate.

Since the last reported1 filing, neither stock has gone anywhere so it’s doubtful that an exit would have happened.

Consider also that J.B. Cocoshell, the elusive investment arm operated by the Jafferjee family has been on the buy side placing down an additional Rs. 105 million1 on CTC having entered shortly after Allan Grey and just prior to the COVID-19 lockdown, and by my estimates they sit on a teeny profit which from historical accounts suggests isn’t quite satisfactory.

In the case of Allan Grey, patience may actually pay.




1 as at 30 December 2020 QoQ change in shareholdings, calculated into the possible average stock price during Oct - Dec 2020
.
.
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