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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » CORPORATE CHRONICLE™ » A Strong bounce back of ASI is on the cards

A Strong bounce back of ASI is on the cards

+3
Vishwanarth
Kipling
samaritan
7 posters

Go down  Message [Page 1 of 1]

samaritan


Moderator
Moderator
The recent tweets by Minister Cabraal hints a strong market bounce back.


quote:
"Those who are selling at current levels are surely making a mistake, It's time to hold or buy" - Cabraal -


A Strong bounce back of ASI is on the cards ?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F606706%2Fbounce-getty


_________________




The biggest risk in life is not taking any risk at all.

Gowri123 likes this post

Kipling


Expert
Expert
Samaritan 
A major bounce back certain & soon. However this time rally must be broad based & especially focused on companies that had posted solid earnings, earning growth & earning trend reversal. Over focus on the 3 musketeers (lolc brwn Bil) will return us to square one again.

nigma likes this post

samaritan


Moderator
Moderator
@Kipling wrote:Samaritan 
A major bounce back certain & soon. However this time rally must be broad based & especially focused on companies that had posted solid earnings, earning growth & earning trend reversal. Over focus on the 3 musketeers (lolc brwn Bil) will return us to square one again.
Kipling, There is a misconception of the potential of the conglomerate LOLC group, probably due to inadequate awareness of their global presence. In my opinion as at present they are well positioned with the necessary backing to reach the pinnacle of success. We may witness tremendous progress by the group in one year's time. This is my view but i agree that the rally must be broad based for a sustainable market growth.


_________________




The biggest risk in life is not taking any risk at all.

Vishwanarth


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
https://mobile.twitter.com/an_cabraal/status/1368055283533025283

dayandacool

dayandacool
Moderator
Moderator
If a nation's main Stock exchange Indexes go up and down drastically based on a person's plea (specially that of a  politician) to invest / dump / hold on ect, Surely there is something wrong. I am not implying it will, However if it does, that is quite worrying. Mature stock markets behave based on more broader aspects. Nothing against ANC though, he has done quite well given the present dynamics.

Just my 2 cents Smile

madukp and topgun86 like this post

Kipling


Expert
Expert
DC
I have been repeating ad nauseum that the run has to be broad based & the fundamentals should do the heavy lifting. Retailers must select companies after self research & know Pat, earnings growth, earnings trend reversal & NCF from Operations etc. NAV must be reworked as there are some assets that are carried at historical value. ( for example a certain company has prime freehold Colombo 2 206P property on books @ 600 Mn while Fair value in AR 3.25B 2 years ago & now 4Bn+++). Focus on the future but have a basis. For example if JKH gets Casino license (on as per informed opinion) revenue can be even roughly estimated by looking at Marina Bay Sands Singapore owned by LVS.

dayandacool and RJ1010 like this post

EPS

EPS
Expert
Expert
At least now onwards, investors should study and follow the value stocks and fundamentally strong counters.
Once publish the quarterly financials, then should do more study and should invest, rather than early following rallies without any value.
We can see many undervalue counters in CSE with fundamentally strong. If you should follow that, will never loose.

dayandacool and Kipling like this post

dayandacool

dayandacool
Moderator
Moderator
@Kipling, Agree with you.

Credit criteria has to be addressed. After all ANC is a law maker and his job is to make laws pertaining to his ministerial portfolio. Problem seem to be, Investors/ traders (so called) awaiting for a tweet to change their fortunes. Isn't it Naïve Very Happy

As per the popular belief, we are a part of a market which could be brought to it's knees through a letter issued by SEC and an arrest of the downfall by a twitter tweet from a minister.

Have you ever heard of a Janet Yellen or Tim Geithner giving buy and hold advice? Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy

few weeks back we were the best performing market in the world, and now, Nada zero which goes on to show that the pillars upon which the CSE is built on are very much shaky and vulnerable. It goes on without saying, credit has always been a bubble maker. Haven't we had a closer look at 2009-2012?  Very Happy

RJ1010 likes this post

samaritan


Moderator
Moderator
ANC's recommendations are based on improved Corporate performance, low PER and future prospects (Investments into Port City) etc. Also, some talk about the quarterly reports which is not necessarily going to give a clear picture of what the future holds for the particular entity. Past is not a predictor of future and stock markets are basically futuristic in nature.

For example JKH's fair value should be low if past quarterly report is relied upon to make an investment decision. Decision should heavily weigh based on future prospects, this is my view only.


_________________




The biggest risk in life is not taking any risk at all.

dayandacool likes this post

dayandacool

dayandacool
Moderator
Moderator
@samaritan wrote:ANC's recommendations are based on improved Corporate performance, low PER and future prospects (Investments into Port City) etc. Also, some talk about the quarterly reports which is not necessarily going to give a clear picture of what the future holds for the particular entity. Past is not a predictor of future and stock markets are basically futuristic in nature.

For example JKH's fair value should be low if past quarterly report is relied upon to make an investment decision. Decision should heavily weigh based on future prospects, this is my view only.

Do's : Bring in Strict Laws and regulations to curtail mafia and manipulation and make a level playing field for HNWIs and retailers alike.

Don'ts: Giving brokerage advice being a Cabinet minister Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy 

Enacted Firm laws will ensure a transparent market and the market will thrive to greater heights on it's own. (Remember cases like Raj Rajaratnam / Alen Stanford or haven't we all watched the Wolf of Wall street?) oh, I forgot. That wasn't in Sri Lanka Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy

It's just my belief and way of thinking but who the hell am I again? Laughing Laughing

samaritan


Moderator
Moderator
@dayandacool wrote:
@samaritan wrote:ANC's recommendations are based on improved Corporate performance, low PER and future prospects (Investments into Port City) etc. Also, some talk about the quarterly reports which is not necessarily going to give a clear picture of what the future holds for the particular entity. Past is not a predictor of future and stock markets are basically futuristic in nature.

For example JKH's fair value should be low if past quarterly report is relied upon to make an investment decision. Decision should heavily weigh based on future prospects, this is my view only.

Do's : Bring in Strict Laws and regulations to curtail mafia and manipulation and make a level playing field for HNWIs and retailers alike.

Don'ts: Giving brokerage advice being a Cabinet minister Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy 

Enacted Firm laws will ensure a transparent market and the market will thrive to greater heights on it's own. (Remember cases like Raj Rajaratnam / Alen Stanford or haven't we all watched the Wolf of Wall street?)

It's just my belief and way of thinking but who the hell am I again? Laughing Laughing
Let's be honest. ANC was subject to heavy criticism for keeping silent, isn't it???
So, now he has come out to resolve the chaos created by the circular in order to put matters right as the Minister in charge. 

In relation to advice i feel its necessary at this juncture to alleviate fears of the investors which may have several reasons. However, the recommendations/advice are substantiated with valid reasoning and that's what matters most.

Enacting firm laws are a must and i strongly agree. But whatever you enact can anyone prevent insider information being passed on to an outsider?

@dayandacool you seem to be having some hot suggestions.A Strong bounce back of ASI is on the cards Icon_lolA Strong bounce back of ASI is on the cards Icon_lol


_________________




The biggest risk in life is not taking any risk at all.

dayandacool likes this post

dayandacool

dayandacool
Moderator
Moderator
@samaritan wrote:
@dayandacool wrote:
@samaritan wrote:ANC's recommendations are based on improved Corporate performance, low PER and future prospects (Investments into Port City) etc. Also, some talk about the quarterly reports which is not necessarily going to give a clear picture of what the future holds for the particular entity. Past is not a predictor of future and stock markets are basically futuristic in nature.

For example JKH's fair value should be low if past quarterly report is relied upon to make an investment decision. Decision should heavily weigh based on future prospects, this is my view only.

Do's : Bring in Strict Laws and regulations to curtail mafia and manipulation and make a level playing field for HNWIs and retailers alike.

Don'ts: Giving brokerage advice being a Cabinet minister Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy 

Enacted Firm laws will ensure a transparent market and the market will thrive to greater heights on it's own. (Remember cases like Raj Rajaratnam / Alen Stanford or haven't we all watched the Wolf of Wall street?)

It's just my belief and way of thinking but who the hell am I again? Laughing Laughing
Let's be honest. ANC was subject to heavy criticism for keeping silent, isn't it???
So, now he has come out to resolve the chaos created by the circular in order to put matters right as the Minister in charge. 

In relation to advice i feel its necessary at this juncture to alleviate fears of the investors which may have several reasons. However, the recommendations/advice are substantiated with valid reasoning and that's what matters most.

Enacting firm laws are a must and i strongly agree. But whatever you enact can anyone prevent insider information being passed on to an outsider?

@dayandacool you seem to be having some hot suggestions.A Strong bounce back of ASI is on the cards Icon_lolA Strong bounce back of ASI is on the cards Icon_lol


@samaritan,

Was ANC subjected to heavy criticism?? Yes
Was he being criticized for keeping silent? Hell No.
He was heavily criticized not for keeping mum but for doing nothing constructive. For that offence, he is still guilty as charged. Will the problems solve by him making an appearance in a social media platform now and then and making a progressive comment quoting few encouraging numbers?? Nah!!! don't think so. Mad Mad Mad

to answer ur question, can anyone prevent insider information being passed on to an outsider? No. 
But Can you bring the culprits to justice? Yes!!!

But once again, Who am I? : Nobody.
Does it matter what and how I feel? Hell no. Very Happy Very Happy

samaritan


Moderator
Moderator
@dayandacool, when the indices nosedived and Nalaka Godahewa's article appeared in the media criticizing the action by SEC there were  several members in this very forum questioning the silence of ANC. Of course for not addressing the issues when utter chaos prevailed as we all know.

At present as the Minister in charge he is stating facts and figures not out of the blues but with reasoning and its open to challenge by anyone who can counter same with his or her arguments. At the end of the day we have to move forward.


_________________




The biggest risk in life is not taking any risk at all.

dayandacool likes this post

dayandacool

dayandacool
Moderator
Moderator
@samaritan,

Investors (I mean real Investors) both local and foreign already know the facts he stated. He hasn't stated anything of any secrecy. Despite knowing those facts, we have witnessed Rs.100 Billion net foreign outflow beginning from Jan 2020 through stocks and bonds.

First step of correcting something is to acknowledge something is wrong somewhere. Do you honestly think it's as rosy as it's been shown?

You are right, we need to move forward. Instead of moving forward, what we are doing is going on a circle. Yet we sometimes stop and wonder why have we arrived at the same point again and again. Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy

samaritan likes this post

Equityinvestor


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Several high networth investors have met ANC today regarding the market. We may see new dialogs coming up and may see some wheels turning. Lets be positive folks. We also have a lot of positive news coming up like port city, currency swap, SEC act etc.

samaritan likes this post

samaritan


Moderator
Moderator
@dayandacool wrote:@samaritan,

Investors (I mean real Investors) both local and foreign already know the facts he stated. He hasn't stated anything of any secrecy. Despite knowing those facts, we have witnessed Rs.100 Billion net foreign outflow beginning from Jan 2020 through stocks and bonds.

First step of correcting something is to acknowledge something is wrong somewhere. Do you honestly think it's as rosy as it's been shown?

You are right, we need to move forward. Instead of moving forward, what we are doing is going on a circle. Yet we sometimes stop and wonder why have we arrived at the same point again and again. Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy
@dayandacool, don't you think the pandemic was one of the  key reasons for the outflow which stock markets in the region too witnessed. I feel there is a silver lining on the horizon as the Norwegian funds investing in NDB in spite of the net outflow. So, let's give it a chance and see the developments that are to take place in the post pandemic era.


_________________




The biggest risk in life is not taking any risk at all.

dayandacool likes this post

dayandacool

dayandacool
Moderator
Moderator
@samaritan 

Could be true. If that is the case, then we should witness a reduction is foreign outflow, given positives of progress of vaccination and other positives news. But are witnessing a reduction? An investor, where ever he is from, will never leave the worlds best performing stock market unless he has a more justifiable reason to do so, dont u think?

Even after a 2000 point crash, its still not attarctive with a PE of less than 13, a lowest in the region ?

samaritan


Moderator
Moderator
@dayandacool, This is just the beginning of the turnaround, and we can see the progress in the near future which will lead to a vibrant stock market. Like you i am nobody too but we have the freedom to challenge the statements made by people holding responsible positions in the social media which i feel is very powerful in the present era. Patience is the key to success!A Strong bounce back of ASI is on the cards Icon_biggrin


_________________




The biggest risk in life is not taking any risk at all.

dayandacool likes this post

samaritan


Moderator
Moderator
@Equityinvestor wrote:Several high networth investors have met ANC today regarding the market. We may see new dialogs coming up and may see some wheels turning. Lets be positive folks. We also have a lot of positive news coming up like port city, currency swap, SEC act etc.
Good news and lets be positive. I know of some people who sold their shares a week ago have started collecting again.


_________________




The biggest risk in life is not taking any risk at all.

dayandacool likes this post

xhunter

xhunter
Moderator
Moderator
major problem is still there, it is something which takes time. if there is a aggressive bounce back, again market will end up with the same situation we experienced. again 100/200 billions will be taken out from the market and end up with drained cash inflow.

if market goes up rapidly , it is exactly similar to a situation of a pyramid scheme. when the last layer joined to the pyramid , pyramid scheme will be in a dead lock situation because there is no people in the country to join as their members . but market is different, instead of dead lock it goes backward until a next layer is ready (in market it is not necessary to be new set of investors, it might be the same set of investors with new capacity).


pyramid schemes will also become successful if a member can take 30 years to introduce 2 more members. population  growth supports that.

dayandacool likes this post

samaritan


Moderator
Moderator
In my view so long as the fundamentals justify the appreciation in ASI there will not be any issues. Especially with expected improved Corporate performances in the future, forward PER will be lower than that at present. This may add momentum to the rise in index.

The only issue is in the event of a steep rise in the index i will have to buy the same stocks i have sold, at a higher price. But fortunately did not sell all. It seems with all positive news coming in, the ASI may shoot up steep starting on Monday.
 
People who held on to their portfolio and those who collected last week will emerge winners. Let's see.

Prominent investors at a meeting with Minister Cabraal today:

A Strong bounce back of ASI is on the cards Evzjc0XVEAAZViG?format=jpg&name=900x900



Last edited by samaritan on Sat Mar 06, 2021 9:41 pm; edited 1 time in total


_________________




The biggest risk in life is not taking any risk at all.

dayandacool likes this post

Equityinvestor


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Guys let's not get carried away with this 'foreign outflow', shall we? Has foreigners taken the correct decision always? Remember there was huge foreign outflow from HAYC and DIPD when they were trading around 400/300 and even below levels. Promar left DIPD fully. So have they made a correct decision? Dont tell me they went for better returns. They could have had 200% -300% within a few months.

Another example is the war. All foriegn war 'experts' said we cant win it and said peace talks are the way to go right? So were they correct?

'Sudda' is not always correct, so let's not get carried away with this 'foreign outflow'. Once we pay the annual ISB payments and loan repayments and if we play the port city right, sudda will come running.

samaritan, dayandacool and Kipling like this post

Equityinvestor


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@dayandacool wrote:
@samaritan wrote:ANC's recommendations are based on improved Corporate performance, low PER and future prospects (Investments into Port City) etc. Also, some talk about the quarterly reports which is not necessarily going to give a clear picture of what the future holds for the particular entity. Past is not a predictor of future and stock markets are basically futuristic in nature.

For example JKH's fair value should be low if past quarterly report is relied upon to make an investment decision. Decision should heavily weigh based on future prospects, this is my view only.

Do's : Bring in Strict Laws and regulations to curtail mafia and manipulation and make a level playing field for HNWIs and retailers alike.

Don'ts: Giving brokerage advice being a Cabinet minister Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy 

Enacted Firm laws will ensure a transparent market and the market will thrive to greater heights on it's own. (Remember cases like Raj Rajaratnam / Alen Stanford or haven't we all watched the Wolf of Wall street?) oh, I forgot. That wasn't in Sri Lanka Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy

It's just my belief and way of thinking but who the hell am I again? Laughing Laughing

Have to agree...also we need firm regulations on credit. Otherwise another credit bubble will be due and we will be in the same scenario as last few weeks...

dayandacool, RJ1010 and judecroos like this post

samaritan


Moderator
Moderator


A Strong bounce back of ASI is on the cards 1603452381661?e=1620864000&v=beta&t=3AGMnHQaMM74RpZo9pecug8XkUu19UWzG-FjWrjWYk0


[size=14]Nimal Perera
• 1stChairman at NP Capital Group20h • 20 hours ago

[/size]


[size=14]I, together with a few other prominent investors in the Colombo Stock Market, had the opportunity to meet Mr Ajith Nivard Cabraal, State Minister of Money, Capital Markets and State Enterprise Reforms of Sri Lanka, to address the issues faced by the stock market. It was a very productive and insightful meeting.

We will organise a gathering with other investors in the local market for a Q&A session with the State Minister very soon in the coming weeks.
[/size]


_________________




The biggest risk in life is not taking any risk at all.

judecroos likes this post

samaritan


Moderator
Moderator
@samaritan wrote:The recent tweets by Minister Cabraal hints a strong market bounce back.


quote:
"Those who are selling at current levels are surely making a mistake, It's time to hold or buy" - Cabraal -


A Strong bounce back of ASI is on the cards ?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F606706%2Fbounce-getty
Perhaps, CSE investors don't want to continue the mistake they made. A Strong bounce back of ASI is on the cards Icon_biggrin


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The biggest risk in life is not taking any risk at all.

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