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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » ජිනීවා චන්දෙන් පසු හෙට මොකක් වෙයි ද ?

ජිනීවා චන්දෙන් පසු හෙට මොකක් වෙයි ද ?

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xhunter


Moderator
Moderator
@Mr. X wrote:
@xhunter wrote:
@madukp wrote:The market couldn't keep the positive momentum. There was no support against selling. Whoever support yesterday was not here today. And still, LOLC is one of the market mover and shaker, then DP's shares following the pattern. This swinging seems to be happening a few times. In the end, hopefully, the overall market will be turning to an uptrend according to my point of view. Hopefully this time 7000 will act as a good support level.
you bring up an interesting point. it is "Whoever support yesterday was not here today". 
what do you think?
is it foreign retailers  buying? No
is it foreign institutional/fund buying? No 
is it local institutional/fund buying? No
is it local HNWIs buying ? maybe...... but not that probable... i don't know 
is it local retailers ? Yes, most probably.

so why they didn't support today? probably they might have bipolar disorder ... i don't know.

actually this is same people who  bought LOCL at 500/=,HAYC at 1600/= ,BIL at 7.20 , EXPO at 60/=, RCL at 420/= TILE,LWL,HEXP and few more.
their thinking pattern is  very easy to understand. still they believe prices they bought is reasonable and they never accept share prices were pumped in January and dumped on them. they belive SEC/CSE messed up otherwise market could have reached ASPI 20000.

so what they do is , they wait and accumulate buying power and after few days they tired of waiting (3-4 days maximum), FB groups and twitter and whats app groups converge them to one direction using ideas like "kabral rally" , when they see a slight uptrend they start to buy the same set of shares again.
when they run out their fund, again you can see EXPO at 43/= HAYC at 90/= VONE at 44/= DIPD at 42/=   (BIL and LOLC ,BRWN are driven by different set of people and some brokers ).


so now you can unlike this post because i mentioned shares EXPO,DIPD,HAYC,VONE etc....
so this is not about the future value, potential or their real value.

What i feel is totally different from your view... I feel the collectors (HNWI or any others) they start to collect once the market is low... 6850 to 7150 collection time from the bottom... once the market is recovering fast, they give a break or sell some at low to move the price down again and let the prices come down... again from bottom  they will start collecting... this pattern happened 2 times successfully and 3rd pattern just started, i feel tomorrow it will further drop..
this trend will continue until other investors realize the true value and hold it...

just my view only...
definitely i agree with your first point. when market reach to lower point lot people will collect. but as a result of that if market went up , they will stop and stand still. they will never try to market bring down.

there are lot of retailers like that, they have fixed price , once they collected, for the next cycle they will further lower their prices.

other retailers are different, they buy it when prices are started to move up. then their demand will further move it up they will still continue buying and they are happy about it and they even share there thought saying that "rally has just began" , "did you enjoy the show". once they are exhausted  it will drop again. first type of retailers will wait until it reaches to their prices. 
part of the second type of retailers will also sell , some selling's will be there because of they sell due to unavoidable reasons.


so it is cycle.

anyway i also should say that "just my view only..." Very Happy Very Happy

madukp and Mr. X like this post

madukp


Expert
Expert
@xhunter wrote:
@Mr. X wrote:
@xhunter wrote:
@madukp wrote:The market couldn't keep the positive momentum. There was no support against selling. Whoever support yesterday was not here today. And still, LOLC is one of the market mover and shaker, then DP's shares following the pattern. This swinging seems to be happening a few times. In the end, hopefully, the overall market will be turning to an uptrend according to my point of view. Hopefully this time 7000 will act as a good support level.
you bring up an interesting point. it is "Whoever support yesterday was not here today". 
what do you think?
is it foreign retailers  buying? No
is it foreign institutional/fund buying? No 
is it local institutional/fund buying? No
is it local HNWIs buying ? maybe...... but not that probable... i don't know 
is it local retailers ? Yes, most probably.

so why they didn't support today? probably they might have bipolar disorder ... i don't know.

actually this is same people who  bought LOCL at 500/=,HAYC at 1600/= ,BIL at 7.20 , EXPO at 60/=, RCL at 420/= TILE,LWL,HEXP and few more.
their thinking pattern is  very easy to understand. still they believe prices they bought is reasonable and they never accept share prices were pumped in January and dumped on them. they belive SEC/CSE messed up otherwise market could have reached ASPI 20000.

so what they do is , they wait and accumulate buying power and after few days they tired of waiting (3-4 days maximum), FB groups and twitter and whats app groups converge them to one direction using ideas like "kabral rally" , when they see a slight uptrend they start to buy the same set of shares again.
when they run out their fund, again you can see EXPO at 43/= HAYC at 90/= VONE at 44/= DIPD at 42/=   (BIL and LOLC ,BRWN are driven by different set of people and some brokers ).


so now you can unlike this post because i mentioned shares EXPO,DIPD,HAYC,VONE etc....
so this is not about the future value, potential or their real value.

What i feel is totally different from your view... I feel the collectors (HNWI or any others) they start to collect once the market is low... 6850 to 7150 collection time from the bottom... once the market is recovering fast, they give a break or sell some at low to move the price down again and let the prices come down... again from bottom  they will start collecting... this pattern happened 2 times successfully and 3rd pattern just started, i feel tomorrow it will further drop..
this trend will continue until other investors realize the true value and hold it...

just my view only...
definitely i agree with your first point. when market reach to lower point lot people will collect. but as a result of that if market went up , they will stop and stand still. they will never try to market bring down.

there are lot of retailers like that, they have fixed price , once they collected, for the next cycle they will further lower their prices.

other retailers are different, they buy it when prices are started to move up. then their demand will further move it up they will still continue buying and they are happy about it and they even share there thought saying that "rally has just began" , "did you enjoy the show". once they are exhausted  it will drop again. first type of retailers will wait until it reaches to their prices. 
part of the second type of retailers will also sell , some selling's will be there because of they sell due to unavoidable reasons.


so it is cycle.

anyway i also should say that "just my view only..." Very Happy Very Happy

I don't really want to dislike your views Mr.X and Xhunter.
The market is a reflection of SriLankan investors/retailers (or gamblers).
I think both of you have valid points to understand current market cycles.

My individual view is most of the counters, including some of the market movers and shakers that XHunter also mentioned, are still undervalued. My view is base on company business and future potential and without considering current political chaos.

I agree with the part of Mr.X explanation of the way these parties collecting and controlling these counters.

Personally, I believe the market is overall in an oversold state and this vicious cycle will be a break at some point. But I don't ever represent the group who was daydreaming that CSE will be skyrocketed to ASPI 20k levels. But the Market should be reasonably moved to 10k levels gradually when companies start picking up to their values.

Ps: I hold most of the shares mentioned in this thread. VONE, LOLC, BIL, DPs shares at reasonable prices, and I believe they will provide a good return in near future.

xhunter


Moderator
Moderator
@madukp wrote:
@xhunter wrote:
@Mr. X wrote:
@xhunter wrote:
@madukp wrote:The market couldn't keep the positive momentum. There was no support against selling. Whoever support yesterday was not here today. And still, LOLC is one of the market mover and shaker, then DP's shares following the pattern. This swinging seems to be happening a few times. In the end, hopefully, the overall market will be turning to an uptrend according to my point of view. Hopefully this time 7000 will act as a good support level.
you bring up an interesting point. it is "Whoever support yesterday was not here today". 
what do you think?
is it foreign retailers  buying? No
is it foreign institutional/fund buying? No 
is it local institutional/fund buying? No
is it local HNWIs buying ? maybe...... but not that probable... i don't know 
is it local retailers ? Yes, most probably.

so why they didn't support today? probably they might have bipolar disorder ... i don't know.

actually this is same people who  bought LOCL at 500/=,HAYC at 1600/= ,BIL at 7.20 , EXPO at 60/=, RCL at 420/= TILE,LWL,HEXP and few more.
their thinking pattern is  very easy to understand. still they believe prices they bought is reasonable and they never accept share prices were pumped in January and dumped on them. they belive SEC/CSE messed up otherwise market could have reached ASPI 20000.

so what they do is , they wait and accumulate buying power and after few days they tired of waiting (3-4 days maximum), FB groups and twitter and whats app groups converge them to one direction using ideas like "kabral rally" , when they see a slight uptrend they start to buy the same set of shares again.
when they run out their fund, again you can see EXPO at 43/= HAYC at 90/= VONE at 44/= DIPD at 42/=   (BIL and LOLC ,BRWN are driven by different set of people and some brokers ).


so now you can unlike this post because i mentioned shares EXPO,DIPD,HAYC,VONE etc....
so this is not about the future value, potential or their real value.

What i feel is totally different from your view... I feel the collectors (HNWI or any others) they start to collect once the market is low... 6850 to 7150 collection time from the bottom... once the market is recovering fast, they give a break or sell some at low to move the price down again and let the prices come down... again from bottom  they will start collecting... this pattern happened 2 times successfully and 3rd pattern just started, i feel tomorrow it will further drop..
this trend will continue until other investors realize the true value and hold it...

just my view only...
definitely i agree with your first point. when market reach to lower point lot people will collect. but as a result of that if market went up , they will stop and stand still. they will never try to market bring down.

there are lot of retailers like that, they have fixed price , once they collected, for the next cycle they will further lower their prices.

other retailers are different, they buy it when prices are started to move up. then their demand will further move it up they will still continue buying and they are happy about it and they even share there thought saying that "rally has just began" , "did you enjoy the show". once they are exhausted  it will drop again. first type of retailers will wait until it reaches to their prices. 
part of the second type of retailers will also sell , some selling's will be there because of they sell due to unavoidable reasons.


so it is cycle.

anyway i also should say that "just my view only..." Very Happy Very Happy

I don't really want to dislike your views Mr.X and  Xhunter.
The market is a reflection of SriLankan investors/retailers (or gamblers).
I think both of you have valid points to understand current market cycles.

My individual view is most of the counters, including some of the market movers and shakers that XHunter also mentioned, are still undervalued. My view is base on company business and future potential and without considering current political chaos.

I agree with the part of Mr.X explanation of the way these parties collecting and controlling these counters.

Personally, I believe the market is overall in an oversold state and this vicious cycle will be a break at some point. But I don't ever represent the group who was daydreaming that CSE will be skyrocketed to ASPI 20k levels. But the Market should be reasonably moved to 10k levels gradually when companies start picking up to their values.

Ps: I hold most of the shares mentioned in this thread. VONE, LOLC, BIL, DPs shares at reasonable prices, and I believe they will provide a good return in near future.
Yes,Yes.
market is oversold and undervalued.
but to move up there is should be a competition in between buyers.
my whole point is, when "wise" people has buying power there is no that much of competition.

but when "idiots"  have buying power it is different. we experienced it on January

madukp likes this post

madukp


Expert
Expert
@xhunter wrote:
Yes,Yes.
market is oversold and undervalued.
but to move up there is should be a competition in between buyers.
my whole point is, when "wise" people has buying power there is no that much of competition.

but when "idiots"  have buying power it is different. we experienced it on January

That we all agree Very Happy

sanjulanka likes this post

sanjulanka


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@madukp wrote:
@xhunter wrote:
Yes,Yes.
market is oversold and undervalued.
but to move up there is should be a competition in between buyers.
my whole point is, when "wise" people has buying power there is no that much of competition.

but when "idiots"  have buying power it is different. we experienced it on January

That we all agree Very Happy
නියමයි මොනා හරි වැදගත් දෙයක් කතා වෙනව දිගටම දැනුවත් කරන්න. Very Happy Very Happy

madukp likes this post

madukp


Expert
Expert
@xhunter, @Mr.X - What we have witnessed today?

ජිනීවා චන්දෙන් පසු හෙට මොකක් වෙයි ද ?  - Page 2 Market10

Someone tried to downforce the market and there was an immediate reaction from 7060, Then after almost 50 minutes of rapid increments, the market is let in free flow. This free flow was not healthy and we have observed rapid downward development from 1.00 PM - 1.40 PM, then again this support appeared at 7080, which I see as a good sign.

Ultimately market sustained around 7100, with a 1.6B turnover. I sense some HNWI presence here with the backup.

plus, a number of + crosses, especially after 1.40 PM helped the market momentum.

14:29 C DIPD 1,028,440@47.00 +1.40 48,336,680
14:21 C RCL 100,000@260.00 +5.00 26,000,000
14:20 C CIC 1,405,000@52.00 (-0.30) 73,060,000
14:18 C RCL 419,416@260.00 +5.00 109,048,160
14:14 C LOLC 230,700@300.00 +3.00 69,210,000
14:12 C SAMP 1,050,000@57.00 +2.10 59,850,000
14:10 C LFIN 640,000@50.00 +2.50 32,000,000
14:08 C JKH 287,000@150.00 +0.75 43,050,000
14:00 C DIMO 144,748@600.00 +110.00 86,848,800
13:58 C TKYO.X 800,000@60.00 +0.30 48,000,000
13:56 C TKYO 400,000@70.00 +2.60 28,000,000
13:54 C OSEA 1,946,657@16.00 +0.10 31,146,512
13:51 C HASU 637,002@58.00 +0.90 36,946,116
13:50 C HASU 480,000@58.00 +0.90 27,840,000
13:48 C HAYL 1,250,000@60.00 +2.90 75,000,000
13:46 C HAYL 1,025,000@60.00 +2.90 61,500,000
13:43 C HNB.X0000 600,000@100.00 +0.40 60,000,000
11:12 C LLUB 424,880@88.00 (-1.40) 37,389,440


I feel a positive week ahead, Are we on a rocket towards 7500? just my thoughts guys.

Eranga87


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
great week ahead with great qtr financial. collect as you want, potential performing counters.

xhunter

xhunter
Moderator
Moderator
@madukp wrote:@xhunter, @Mr.X - What we have witnessed today?

ජිනීවා චන්දෙන් පසු හෙට මොකක් වෙයි ද ?  - Page 2 Market10

Someone tried to downforce the market and there was an immediate reaction from 7060, Then after almost 50 minutes of rapid increments, the market is let in free flow. This free flow was not healthy and we have observed rapid downward development from 1.00 PM - 1.40 PM, then again this support appeared at 7080, which I see as a good sign.

Ultimately market sustained around 7100, with a 1.6B turnover. I sense some HNWI presence here with the backup.

plus, a number of + crosses, especially after 1.40 PM helped the market momentum.

14:29 C DIPD 1,028,440@47.00 +1.40 48,336,680
14:21 C RCL 100,000@260.00 +5.00 26,000,000
14:20 C CIC 1,405,000@52.00 (-0.30) 73,060,000
14:18 C RCL 419,416@260.00 +5.00 109,048,160
14:14 C LOLC 230,700@300.00 +3.00 69,210,000
14:12 C SAMP 1,050,000@57.00 +2.10 59,850,000
14:10 C LFIN 640,000@50.00 +2.50 32,000,000
14:08 C JKH 287,000@150.00 +0.75 43,050,000
14:00 C DIMO 144,748@600.00 +110.00 86,848,800
13:58 C TKYO.X 800,000@60.00 +0.30 48,000,000
13:56 C TKYO 400,000@70.00 +2.60 28,000,000
13:54 C OSEA 1,946,657@16.00 +0.10 31,146,512
13:51 C HASU 637,002@58.00 +0.90 36,946,116
13:50 C HASU 480,000@58.00 +0.90 27,840,000
13:48 C HAYL 1,250,000@60.00 +2.90 75,000,000
13:46 C HAYL 1,025,000@60.00 +2.90 61,500,000
13:43 C HNB.X0000 600,000@100.00 +0.40 60,000,000
11:12 C LLUB 424,880@88.00 (-1.40) 37,389,440


I feel a positive week ahead, Are we on a rocket towards 7500? just my thoughts guys.

i dont think "Someone tried to downforce". it is probably a natural movement because market was bit slow(within that time window), and if sellers present and buyers are not active at that rate , the result is this kind of movement.

But these "crossings" are interesting. I also noticed that and even post this in a another thread.
so this means they are ready add money to market. the prices they agreed also bit elevated compared to market price (that means selling party also demand something more). so it hints us they are ready to raise their bar.
IMO cash inflow was the major problem. if this is not something one-off case, that means major problem will disappear slowly/or might be rapidly.

we always say "selling" at this point is a really bad idea. 
so even in these crossings there is a selling party, they might be profit taking or they might be seeking for better opportunities or they might be smart(which we don't  agree) 

so I would say it is "too early to comment".

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