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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » CORPORATE CHRONICLE™ » EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000)

EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000)

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901EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 37 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Fri Feb 05, 2021 2:55 pm

RJ1010


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
For the benefit of members here I’m copying below valuation done by the much respected WallStreet on TEC. Due credit to him.

EXPO has already reported an EPS of Rs5.54 for the 9months ending 31/12/20.

*June - Rs0.89 + Sep - Rs2.32 + Dec - Rs2.33

*Expected EPS for - March Q21
Possible scenarios...
01.Rs1.0 + Rs5.54 = Expected annual EPS Rs6.54

02.Rs1.50 + Rs5.54 = EA EPS Rs7.04

03.Rs1.75 + Rs5.54 = EA EPS Rs7.29

04.Rs2.0 + Rs5.54 = EA EPS Rs7.54

05.Rs2.25 + Rs5.54 = EA EPS Rs7.79

06. Rs2.50 + Rs5.54 = EA EPS Rs8.04

07. Rs2.75 + Rs5.54 = EA EPS Rs8.29

08. Rs3.0 + Rs5.54 = EA EPS Rs8.54


*My personal expectation range for March Q21 EPS is in between of Rs1.75 - Rs2.50 levels. (Minimum risk expectation)

*Even though market EPS is around 13.7 times if we applied PE 8 times for above 4 scenarios

01Rs7.29 * PE 8 = Rs58.32

02.Rs7.54 * PE 8 = Rs60.32

03.Rs7.79 * PE 8 = Rs62.32

04.Rs8.04 *PE 8 = Rs64.32


*PE of 8 times is one of lowest taken for the calculation to minimize the risk factor...

*However just calculate & see if we apply PE 10 times for the above 4 scenarios for calculation of the EXPO future price.

902EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 37 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Fri Feb 05, 2021 4:46 pm

KILLER99


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@RJ1010 wrote:For the benefit of members here I’m copying below valuation done by  the much respected WallStreet on TEC. Due credit to him.

EXPO has already reported an EPS of Rs5.54 for the 9months ending 31/12/20.

*June - Rs0.89 + Sep - Rs2.32 + Dec - Rs2.33

*Expected EPS for - March Q21
Possible scenarios...
01.Rs1.0 + Rs5.54 = Expected annual EPS Rs6.54

02.Rs1.50 + Rs5.54 = EA EPS Rs7.04

03.Rs1.75 + Rs5.54 = EA EPS Rs7.29

04.Rs2.0 + Rs5.54 = EA EPS Rs7.54

05.Rs2.25 + Rs5.54 = EA EPS Rs7.79

06. Rs2.50 + Rs5.54 = EA EPS Rs8.04

07. Rs2.75 + Rs5.54 = EA EPS Rs8.29

08. Rs3.0 + Rs5.54 = EA EPS Rs8.54


*My personal expectation range for March Q21 EPS is in between of Rs1.75 - Rs2.50 levels. (Minimum risk expectation)

*Even though market EPS is around 13.7 times if we applied PE 8 times for above 4 scenarios

01Rs7.29 * PE 8 = Rs58.32

02.Rs7.54 * PE 8 = Rs60.32

03.Rs7.79 * PE 8 = Rs62.32

04.Rs8.04 *PE 8 = Rs64.32


*PE of 8 times is one of lowest taken for the calculation to minimize the risk factor...

*However just calculate & see if we apply PE 10 times for the above 4 scenarios for calculation of the EXPO future price.
This would reach LKR 75++ before end of March 2021

903EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 37 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Sat Feb 06, 2021 4:22 pm

bizniz


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
It's easily gonna break 65LKR. The day traders who are used to trading BIL and ASPH are selling out to buy more penny stocks. Expo is a solid buy for the mid and long term. If you got in last year, good on you! Hold till end of March and reap the benefits. Patience is the key!

Vishwanarth and KILLER99 like this post

904EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 37 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Sat Feb 06, 2021 5:35 pm

Vishwanarth


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@bizniz wrote:It's easily gonna break 65LKR. The day traders who are used to trading BIL and ASPH are selling out to buy more penny stocks. Expo is a solid buy for the mid and long term. If you got in last year, good on you! Hold till end of March and reap the benefits. Patience is the key!
Day traders and foreign buyers are coming back to BIL and EXPO. Last day they increased BIL foreign stake up to 0. 29% and it will move towards 0.35% levels again. EXPO is excelling in its business defeating all other competitors and now they have big competitive advantage and logistics leadership in the field.

bizniz likes this post

905EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 37 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Mon Feb 08, 2021 6:13 am

KILLER99


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Viral  video is sharing among the social platform regarding, achievement of EXPO in South Africa and another successful contract sign with Spice Jet and Covid-19 vaccine program in India. This vital video proved how EXPO successfully executed their new logistic solution to current scenario and captured another market share from logistic market. This will result huge spike of 2021 Q01 earnings. Very Happy Very Happy

Real Investors are investing now a days with EXPO and this will reached LKR 100+ share soon.. 


Cheers...  Razz Razz

906EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 37 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Mon Feb 08, 2021 6:17 am

Kipling


Expert
Expert
K99
Await your report on Cflb. 
Thank You b

KILLER99 likes this post

vikey


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 37 1e5b7f10India has exported Covid-19 vaccines worth Rs 338 crore till .. 

Read more at:
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/80890083.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

KILLER99 likes this post

908EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 37 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Wed Feb 17, 2021 11:13 pm

Gowri123


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
https://servimg.com/view/20311227/2

Expo has been in the silent mode since the report out and all the market drama...its time has come to fly...

Expo silently expanding its business worldwide...with the distribution of vaccines for SII (Serum Institute of India) the largest vaccine manufacturer in the world. expect a record Q4...

ADVENTUS and bizniz like this post

909EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 37 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Wed Feb 24, 2021 9:18 am

samaritan


Moderator
Moderator
@Junior investor wrote:I just red interim financial statement and it's free cash flow is negative. I don't know why some people pay high rates for this.

ෆ්රී කෑෂ් ෆ්ලෝ එක නෙගටියු. ඇයි මේක ලොකු ගනන් වලට සමහරු මේක ගන්නෙ?
@Gowri123,
In my opinion the market may have already reacted to the vaccine distribution news and one other reason for it to lose momentum is the negative free cash flow reported in the last report i am told. Lets see the price movement with the ongoing market crash.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/management-leaders/7-ways-to-figure-out-problems-in-a-companys-financial-health/negative-free-cash-flow/slideshow/55092826.cms


_________________




The biggest risk in life is not taking any risk at all.

910EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 37 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Wed Feb 24, 2021 1:04 pm

Gowri123


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
@samaritan wrote:
@Junior investor wrote:I just red interim financial statement and it's free cash flow is negative. I don't know why some people pay high rates for this.

ෆ්රී කෑෂ් ෆ්ලෝ එක නෙගටියු. ඇයි මේක ලොකු ගනන් වලට සමහරු මේක ගන්නෙ?
@Gowri123,
In my opinion the market may have already reacted to the vaccine distribution news and one other reason for it to lose momentum is the negative free cash flow reported in the last report i am told. Lets see the price movement with the ongoing market crash.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/management-leaders/7-ways-to-figure-out-problems-in-a-companys-financial-health/negative-free-cash-flow/slideshow/55092826.cms
Yes, maybe the market had already reacted to Vaccine distribution news but the results of these businesses will reflect in the coming Q4 qtr and other upcoming qtrs...market will react to that in the coming months...

Yes, I agree with negative free cash flow can be an issue...Expo predominantly doing the freight business...this issue can be seen among all big cargo/freight companies...I don't have an issue unless if it continues in coming qtrs..

Expo is very well structured and has a clear vision and their plans for the future has been impressive. The way they expanding globally is very evident. Soon it will be valued as 1 bn company..a true blue-chip company...

for me, its a gem to be having in the portfolio... I love you

ADVENTUS and RJ1010 like this post

911EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 37 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Wed Feb 24, 2021 1:34 pm

hanuma


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Yes.EXPO IS THE GEM IN CSE.

ADVENTUS likes this post

912EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 37 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Wed Feb 24, 2021 2:15 pm

Wickyz


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
BYE BYE NDB

913EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 37 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Wed Feb 24, 2021 2:33 pm

Gowri123


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
heavy collection going on at this bargain prices...get the maximum out of it...when the bull run starts..it will be too late...
https://i.servimg.com/u/f13/20/31/12/27/whatsa12.jpg

914EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 37 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Wed Feb 24, 2021 2:40 pm

judecroos


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Gowri123 wrote:heavy collection going on at this bargain prices...get the maximum out of it...when the bull run starts..it will be too late...
https://i.servimg.com/u/f13/20/31/12/27/whatsa12.jpg
But all the shares going on forced selling from about a month now. Started by the letter fiasco by well organized gang with a plan with SEC & CSE to bring down the market. so they can collect low and sell high.  Any one noticed today's trading pattern ? Not allowed to appreciate the price and before the market close brought all down.

skyrocket, Dilip and Bakkabwoi like this post

915EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 37 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Thu Feb 25, 2021 2:03 pm

Gowri123


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
Expo lovers, Enjoying the show? Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy

it's just the beginning long way to go... cheers cheers cheers

Expo haters, it's not too late to join the party...never underestimate a blue-chip company...they may fall but at the same speed, they will bounce back...

samaritan, Intrinsicvalue, ADVENTUS and RJ1010 like this post

916EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 37 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Thu Feb 25, 2021 2:42 pm

RJ1010


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Fantastic show by Expo today... so now we can see the collectors from last week are the real winners.
Not just Expo, most of the companies which had great financial results should power the next Aspi run in March.

ADVENTUS, Wolf86, Gowri123 and Game Changer like this post

917EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 37 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Thu Feb 25, 2021 2:47 pm

ADVENTUS


Moderator
Moderator
@RJ1010 wrote:Fantastic show by Expo today... so now we can see the collectors from last week are the real winners.
Not just Expo, most of the companies which had great financial results should power the next Aspi run in March.
cheers cheers cheers

RJ1010 and Gowri123 like this post

918EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 37 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Thu Feb 25, 2021 2:54 pm

Vishwanarth


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Today EXPO and BIL batsmen done good job..cheers... Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy

ADVENTUS likes this post

919EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 37 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Mon Mar 08, 2021 12:05 am

Gowri123


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 37 Whatsa15

kusxn likes this post

920EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 37 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Tue Mar 09, 2021 7:40 am

Value Pick


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
EXPO Expanding....

EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 37 D10

ADVENTUS and Mithooshan like this post

921EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 37 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Tue Mar 09, 2021 10:20 am

hanuma


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Expo run to it's real valve.more than RS75

Kipling, ADVENTUS and kusxn like this post

922EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 37 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Tue Mar 09, 2021 2:24 pm

kusxn


Stock Trader
@Gowri123 wrote:EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 37 Whatsa15

Is there a way to join this?

ADVENTUS likes this post

923EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 37 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Tue Mar 09, 2021 4:48 pm

Gowri123


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
@kusxn wrote:
@Gowri123 wrote:EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 37 Whatsa15

Is there a way to join this?
you cant attend directly...as only 200 selected clients only invited by JKSB...but you can see via the zoom app.
EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 37 Whatsa17

kusxn likes this post

924EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 37 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Tue Mar 09, 2021 9:41 pm

DimuthuKW


Stock Analytic
Stock Analytic
https://zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_2oi457BySTe6tj8I6LvV6g

ADVENTUS and kusxn like this post

925EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 37 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Tue Mar 09, 2021 9:42 pm

DimuthuKW


Stock Analytic
Stock Analytic
Click the above link to register.



Last edited by DimuthuKW on Tue Mar 09, 2021 10:22 pm; edited 1 time in total

ADVENTUS likes this post

926EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 37 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Tue Mar 09, 2021 10:19 pm

shan31


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
What are your expectations of EXPO by month end? I think this should touch 60 before end of the month.

kusxn likes this post

927EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 37 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Tue Mar 09, 2021 11:18 pm

celtic tiger


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@shan31 wrote:What are your expectations of EXPO by month end? I think this should touch 60 before end of the month.
What is the turnover today 10 billion ??? Current activity level does not support this kind of price hikes.

ADVENTUS and KingMaker2020 like this post

928EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 37 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Wed Mar 10, 2021 9:42 pm

Gowri123


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
EXPOLANKA INVESTOR MEETING MINUTES with GROUP CEO, EFL MD and GROUP FINANCE DIRECTOR
hosted by John Keells Stock Brokers
10th March 2021 3.30pm

- Expo is most happy about their Balance Sheet compared to competitors which have made them who they are today.

- They are not thinking local, they have captured all markets around China, that China market had no option but to take EXPO on board as they had offices right round China and air and sea route connectivity (Bold move, strategic thinking... What Mr. Hanif is best at)

- Airline carriers always gave first preference to EXPOLANKA in the cargo segment due to the 20+ years of relationships they’ve built and the trust they had during an economic crisis.

- Vaccine business is not new to EXPO, they have been transporting vaccines for the last 5 years and the Covid vaccine business is only a small element of their total Pharmaceutical transportation business. Even if they transport 7bn vaccines around the world, it’s only a small contribution to their revenue as EXPO Pharma logistics is a huge business already.

- EXPO is one of the main carriers that ship automobiles in Asia. Mainly Japan.

- Parent company SGH Holdings has already made plans to take the company to a USD 2 billion revenue company.

- Group Finance Director said they will continue to pay 20% dividends payout ratio from Free Cash Flow and balance is allocated to the vision of the company to make it a USD 2 billion company.

- Currently, their Return on Equity (ROE) is the highest in the industry.

- Post pandemic EXPO has already purchased cargo space in aircraft and ships, so this will maintain their current revenue and profit for the coming years and quarters.

- They’ve been prepared to take on this pandemic and serve the world demand for covid products because they have readily available capacity which they worked on since 2017.

- EXPO is the preferred freight forwarder of many Asian Airlines and now that they have captured Asia, Europe and USA, their next continent is South America

- They are proud that a Sri Lankan company is recognised globally at No. 26 and if the time and valuation is right, they will acquire logistics companies in Europe.

- In Sri Lanka there are 300 logistics companies and EXPO is number 1 in Air Freight.

- All their earnings are in USD and JPY and not in LKR.

- EFL CEO Mr. Shanmugan said “the most exciting times for EXPO are yet to come with their new clients on board”

EPS, samaritan, kusxn and El Patron like this post

929EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 37 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Wed Mar 10, 2021 10:00 pm

RajapaksaDON


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
Thank you Gawri 123 for providing us this valuable info. It is very useful for me.

Gowri123 likes this post

930EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 37 Empty Re: EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) Wed Mar 10, 2021 10:32 pm

Gowri123


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000) - Page 37 Whatsa18
Expo expansion is real... Laughing Laughing Laughing

samaritan, RJ1010, Bakkabwoi, KILLER99 and kusxn like this post

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