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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » CORPORATE CHRONICLE™ » Market correction next week - Support level 7100

Market correction next week - Support level 7100

+19
samaritan
xhunter
Mr. X
SAGA
kanishkaecomm
reyaz
karren
Hawk Eye
Nandun
කොටස් වෙළඳපොළ2020
Wickyz
cseguide
chandike73
ONTHEMONEY
shariff
ADVENTUS
SECsux
jaya
ForeigNer
23 posters

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ForeigNer

ForeigNer
Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
Most small investers feared a possible market correction in next two weeks. Experts predict the supporting level will be around 7100 level if not supported will move down to 6800 level.

Facts ;

* Month end Margin settlements,
* Unfavorable macro economic conditions.
* Rising fuel cost,
* Overpriced TILE SECTOR
* Dependency on LOLC share for volume/index movement
* Downward trend of BIL ( most favorite share of retailers )



Last edited by ForeigNer on Thu Jun 24, 2021 10:23 pm; edited 1 time in total

reyaz and Nandun like this post

lakmal, nigma, Chithi, ADVENTUS, RJ1010, Mr. X and Bakkabwoi dislike this post

jaya


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@ForeigNer wrote:Most small inverters feared a possible market correction in next two weeks. Experts predict the supporting level will be around 7100 level if not supported will move down to 6800 level.

Facts ;

* Month end Margin settlements,
* Unfavorable macro economic conditions.
* Rising fuel cost,
* Overpriced TILE SECTOR
* Dependency on LOLC share for volume/index movement
* Downward trend of BIL ( most favorite share of retailers )
More Positive Factors to bull Market for next week

nigma, ADVENTUS, Mr. X and Bakkabwoi like this post

SECsux


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@ForeigNer wrote:Most small investers feared a possible market correction in next two weeks. Experts predict the supporting level will be around 7100 level if not supported will move down to 6800 level.

Facts ;

* Month end Margin settlements,
* Unfavorable macro economic conditions.
* Rising fuel cost,
* Overpriced TILE SECTOR
* Dependency on LOLC share for volume/index movement
* Downward trend of BIL ( most favorite share of retailers )
ch* kollo

ADVENTUS likes this post

ADVENTUS


Moderator
Moderator


@ForeigNer wrote:Most small investers feared a possible market correction in next two weeks. Experts predict the supporting level will be around 7100 level if not supported will move down to 6800 level.

Facts ;

* Month end Margin settlements,
* Unfavorable macro economic conditions.
* Rising fuel cost,
* Overpriced TILE SECTOR
* Dependency on LOLC share for volume/index movement
* Downward trend of BIL ( most favorite share of retailers )
Another weakling

shariff


Stock Analytic
Stock Analytic
I don't think the market will up today onwards till middle of next month.

ONTHEMONEY


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@ForeigNer wrote:Most small investers feared a possible market correction in next two weeks. Experts predict the supporting level will be around 7100 level if not supported will move down to 6800 level.

Facts ;

* Month end Margin settlements,
* Unfavorable macro economic conditions.
* Rising fuel cost,
* Overpriced TILE SECTOR
* Dependency on LOLC share for volume/index movement
* Downward trend of BIL ( most favorite share of retailers )

Hi ForeigNer,

I don't agree with your facts. Please see the justification below for your noted facts.

Month end margin settlements is NOT NEW to the market. Most of the brokering houses already cleaned margins if you analyze personally with them.

All CORPORATES have RECORDED HIDTORICAL HIGHEST PROFITS in the current ECONOMIC CLIMATE. Additionally, the Government is planning to repay July debt repayments without any issue. The due value is USD 1.0Bn and SL currently have USD 4.0Bn as reserves and another USD 1.5Bn received from China as a SWAP. The Government is might go to restructure the debt or go for IMF plan which is highly likely. 


Diesel price increased by 6.7%. However, the rising fuel cost is common for all companies listed in CSE. 

Tile Sector is NOT OVERPRICED which is WRONG. Please analyze before making open statements. Currently, TILES and ALUMINIUM sectors have almost 1 YEAR sales paid in ADVANCE where the delivery happens 12 months later. The Import restrictions are NOT LIKELY to be LIFTED for next year given the DEBT REPAYMENTS in the country. All local manufactures EXPANDED PRODUCTION CAPACITIES IDENTIFYING the potential in domestic market driven by import restrictions.

LOLC is naturally a market driver. LOLC is moving up due to the recent HYPER GROWTH and BEST CORPORATE WITH EARNING in SL. Also, LOLC Technologies [85% owned by LOLC] are exploring to supply Graphene as Battery Technology which will be a killer in SL Exports. Globally, battery technology is the next emerging change replacing fuel. 

https://www.lankabusinessonline.com/sri-lanka-seeks-collaboration-on-graphene-applications-with-russian-company/


BIL factor is not a key factor contributing to the overall market. 

Therefore, please be responsible in posting opinions with valid supporting facts. 

As an INVESTOR, I am focusing on BASIC FUNDAMENTALS in a market

Irrespective of daily developments, what is important is the overall strength of market fundamentals and technicals. 


  1. DY is almost the SAVINGS RATE and TOUCHING FD rate

  2. Market PE = 8 (lowest in FRONTIER markets)

  3. Technically it’s a cup and handle 

  4. Local Co. are performing exploring opportunities of C19 and imports cut


If you follow greats like Warren Buffet, you should on BUY side when everyone is Fearfull. I am BULLISH based on market fundamentals. 

Good Luck 

Chithi and Mr. X like this post

chandike73

chandike73
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Agree

cseguide

cseguide
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@ONTHEMONEY wrote:
@ForeigNer wrote:Most small investers feared a possible market correction in next two weeks. Experts predict the supporting level will be around 7100 level if not supported will move down to 6800 level.

Facts ;

* Month end Margin settlements,
* Unfavorable macro economic conditions.
* Rising fuel cost,
* Overpriced TILE SECTOR
* Dependency on LOLC share for volume/index movement
* Downward trend of BIL ( most favorite share of retailers )

Hi ForeigNer,

I don't agree with your facts. Please see the justification below for your noted facts.

Month end margin settlements is NOT NEW to the market. Most of the brokering houses already cleaned margins if you analyze personally with them.

All CORPORATES have RECORDED HIDTORICAL HIGHEST PROFITS in the current ECONOMIC CLIMATE. Additionally, the Government is planning to repay July debt repayments without any issue. The due value is USD 1.0Bn and SL currently have USD 4.0Bn as reserves and another USD 1.5Bn received from China as a SWAP. The Government is might go to restructure the debt or go for IMF plan which is highly likely. 


Diesel price increased by 6.7%. However, the rising fuel cost is common for all companies listed in CSE. 

Tile Sector is NOT OVERPRICED which is WRONG. Please analyze before making open statements. Currently, TILES and ALUMINIUM sectors have almost 1 YEAR sales paid in ADVANCE where the delivery happens 12 months later. The Import restrictions are NOT LIKELY to be LIFTED for next year given the DEBT REPAYMENTS in the country. All local manufactures EXPANDED PRODUCTION CAPACITIES IDENTIFYING the potential in domestic market driven by import restrictions.

LOLC is naturally a market driver. LOLC is moving up due to the recent HYPER GROWTH and BEST CORPORATE WITH EARNING in SL. Also, LOLC Technologies [85% owned by LOLC] are exploring to supply Graphene as Battery Technology which will be a killer in SL Exports. Globally, battery technology is the next emerging change replacing fuel. 

https://www.lankabusinessonline.com/sri-lanka-seeks-collaboration-on-graphene-applications-with-russian-company/


BIL factor is not a key factor contributing to the overall market. 

Therefore, please be responsible in posting opinions with valid supporting facts. 

As an INVESTOR, I am focusing on BASIC FUNDAMENTALS in a market

Irrespective of daily developments, what is important is the overall strength of market fundamentals and technicals. 


  1. DY is almost the SAVINGS RATE and TOUCHING FD rate

  2. Market PE = 8 (lowest in FRONTIER markets)

  3. Technically it’s a cup and handle 

  4. Local Co. are performing exploring opportunities of C19 and imports cut


If you follow greats like Warren Buffet, you should on BUY side when everyone is Fearfull. I am BULLISH based on market fundamentals. 

Good Luck 
yes next week most probably a green week. Today also we so lot of collection of fundamental strong shares.

nigma likes this post

Wickyz


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Next week profit booking week

Wickyz likes this post

කොටස් වෙළඳපොළ2020


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
තවම එහෙම නෑ Market correction එකක් එනවා එකට ASI 8100 වත් පහු වෙන්න ඔන.ගොඩක් වෙගෙන්ASI වැඩිවෙන්නෙ නෑ තව ටික කලක් යයි.

Venu123 dislikes this post

Nandun


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
I think Monday will be red due to lot of Xdate and then it will make panic for others.

karren likes this post

Hawk Eye

Hawk Eye
Expert
Expert
NEST,NIFL,YORK  even CTC like shares would get pushed up whilst selling the high performing shares which was driving the market in the past like subs of HAYL, TKYO, EXPO etc etc

If we take last year during the full lockdown most of the Companies reported lowest revenue + losses. Local businesses including tourism sector affected most. We can expect the same to an extent because the lockdowns in certain parts of the country started from May 8. So some disruption caused to local businesses for May June month definitely. 

HAYC and DIPD will do well to some extent, but TILE ,ALUM,LWL,RCL ,PARQ all can drag HAYL performance down a bit. its going to be the same for SPEN,JKH like conglomerates

Macro Economic  will have some side effects to exporters , and July is a decisive month 

When all this taken in to account Jun Qtr could be a worse Qtr. But the result would be release very late giving time for some fire works here and there

what we are scared about is we dont know what the big investors/Big fishes in CSE thinking. We know from the past is they will dump on small investors most of the time

RJ1010, judecroos and karren like this post

karren

karren
Stock Trader
I think most banks will have to face corrections in their share prices. Earnings reports are delayed unusually. This raises suspicions you know!

reyaz

reyaz
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@ForeigNer wrote:Most small investers feared a possible market correction in next two weeks. Experts predict the supporting level will be around 7100 level if not supported will move down to 6800 level.

Facts ;

* Month end Margin settlements,
* Unfavorable macro economic conditions.
* Rising fuel cost,
* Overpriced TILE SECTOR
* Dependency on LOLC share for volume/index movement
* Downward trend of BIL ( most favorite share of retailers )
Although... it is not the retailers who decide such a calamity- FOOD FOR THOUGHT.

kanishkaecomm

kanishkaecomm
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

Poor Panicked Individuals

SAGA


Moderator
Moderator
we are repeatedly saying this.dont buy on credit.we don't need gamblers.we need investors.Buy little quantities at low price  with whatever cash in your hand.then be patient.thats all.

Mr. X

Mr. X
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
any idea which shares took the ASI high today during morning hours... ???

xhunter

xhunter
Moderator
Moderator
@Mr. X wrote:any idea which shares took the ASI high today during morning hours... ???
NIFL.N0000

touched 770/= , at that time ASPI reached to day peak.
Market correction next week - Support level 7100 Wy+UQAAAAASUVORK5CYII=

nigma and Mr. X like this post

Wickyz


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Wickyz wrote:Next week profit booking week
I told you my friends

ONTHEMONEY


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Hi all,

ASI was not actually in RED ZONE today. The hourly T/O GROWTH % was impressive during the day. Good to see the change in direction from ILLIQUID to fundamentals. NIFL down by 104 while the Market down by 104. It’s flat therefore. 

Wise to COLLECT VALUE STOCKS at cheap prices. The market forces may DRIVE FUNDAMENTAL GROWTH stocks at any moment

One lesson people INVESTING in EQUITY should learn is that QUICK MONEY is NOT the reality. Many would have learned it in hard way today from NIFL, COMD.

Investors should NOT use funds today which they are planning to take out from MKT in next 3~6 months and look for quick money.

Good Luck

D.G.Dayaratne, nigma, kalu351 and ADVENTUS like this post

karren

karren
Stock Trader
I expect timetable for market correction will be as follows

July- owing to the currency crisis.
September- owing to the IMF's possible negative outlook for S. Asia or specifically Sri Lanka.
November- owing to the expected increase in interest rates in the EU and America.

but everyone expects ASPI to be in level of 7500 or above.

samaritan


Moderator
Moderator
Crisis is not something new to Sri Lanka. The nation has overcome several crisis situations in the past. My gut feeling is the backup or alternate plans to overcome the crisis will be revealed by the 8th July and the market will be on a bullish trajectory from the beginning of this week. Several criticisms may come from various quarters over what i have stated here but my answer is, that's the way things happen here. Let's see.


_________________




The biggest risk in life is not taking any risk at all.

nigma likes this post

ONTHEMONEY


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Hi all,

There is NO CRISIS in SL right now. Everyone can realize it ONCE THE JULY 2021 DEBT PAYMENT MADE (USD 1.0Bn) without any issue.

What everyone needs to UNDERSTAND is that SL lost nearly USD 4.0Bn foreign inflow due to TOURISM INDUSTRY DISASTER spooked because of C19. That led to current FX demand/supply issue and further fueled by vaccine imports.

What the GOVERNMENT is planning to do is;

1. Manage FX issue with IMPORT CONTROL as much as possible while growing EXPORTS 
2. Vaccinate in full by September and START TOURISM where the hotel workers given priority for vaccines(already directions issued)
3. Obtain SWAP facilities to bridge USD required as a ST measure 
4. Government would go to IMF as the last option 

Therefore, as investors I see the present situation creates a GOLDEN OPPORTUNITY to BUY as some investors might panic without understanding the situation. The great investor Warren Buffet made BILLIONS in 2008 during subprime mortgage crisis 

Good Luck 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/theweek.com/articles/459166/how-warren-buffett-made-10-billion-during-financial-crisis%3famp

Market correction next week - Support level 7100 30b25b10

samaritan likes this post

ADVENTUS


Moderator
Moderator
@ONTHEMONEY wrote:Hi all,

There is NO CRISIS in SL right now. Everyone can realize it ONCE THE JULY 2021 DEBT PAYMENT MADE (USD 1.0Bn) without any issue.

What everyone needs to UNDERSTAND is that SL lost nearly USD 4.0Bn foreign inflow due to TOURISM INDUSTRY DISASTER spooked because of C19. That led to current FX demand/supply issue and further fueled by vaccine imports.

What the GOVERNMENT is planning to do is;

1. Manage FX issue with IMPORT CONTROL as much as possible while growing EXPORTS 
2. Vaccinate in full by September and START TOURISM where the hotel workers given priority for vaccines(already directions issued)
3. Obtain SWAP facilities to bridge USD required as a ST measure 
4. Government would go to IMF as the last option 

Therefore, as investors I see the present situation creates a GOLDEN OPPORTUNITY to BUY as some investors might panic without understanding the situation. The great investor Warren Buffet made BILLIONS in 2008 during subprime mortgage crisis 

Good Luck 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/theweek.com/articles/459166/how-warren-buffett-made-10-billion-during-financial-crisis%3famp

Market correction next week - Support level 7100 30b25b10
Government actually lost a total of roughly USD 8-9 BN last year: USD 4BN from tourism and another USD 4-5BN due to tax (reducing VAT and scrapping NBT). 
This year is worse. 

But, yes, I agree this would be the best time.

 The gvt may set aside their prejudices and seek help from IMF and restructure debt. 
Also, if the vaccination programme is completed as planned by September (60% of the population, that is roughly 225,000 people a day)  and manage the spread of the delta variant- we could see a surge in August, so gvt. should impose a two week lock down as soon they notice this-.

If all goes well, we should be able to open the country for tourism in winter. 
Bull run! Very Happy 

Cheers!

ONTHEMONEY and judecroos like this post

celtic tiger


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
We have a Doller shortage NOT rupees so more local investors will find CSE the place to invest. Especially Millennials. As long as honey printing and low interest rates prevail CSE will be fine.

nigma, ADVENTUS and judecroos like this post

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