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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » CORPORATE CHRONICLE™ » Market correction next week - Support level 7100

Market correction next week - Support level 7100

+19
samaritan
xhunter
Mr. X
SAGA
kanishkaecomm
reyaz
karren
Hawk Eye
Nandun
කොටස් වෙළඳපොළ2020
Wickyz
cseguide
chandike73
ONTHEMONEY
shariff
ADVENTUS
SECsux
jaya
ForeigNer
23 posters

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karren


Stock Trader
I expect timetable for market correction will be as follows

July- owing to the currency crisis.
September- owing to the IMF's possible negative outlook for S. Asia or specifically Sri Lanka.
November- owing to the expected increase in interest rates in the EU and America.

but everyone expects ASPI to be in level of 7500 or above.

samaritan


Moderator
Moderator
Crisis is not something new to Sri Lanka. The nation has overcome several crisis situations in the past. My gut feeling is the backup or alternate plans to overcome the crisis will be revealed by the 8th July and the market will be on a bullish trajectory from the beginning of this week. Several criticisms may come from various quarters over what i have stated here but my answer is, that's the way things happen here. Let's see.

nigma likes this post

ONTHEMONEY


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Hi all,

There is NO CRISIS in SL right now. Everyone can realize it ONCE THE JULY 2021 DEBT PAYMENT MADE (USD 1.0Bn) without any issue.

What everyone needs to UNDERSTAND is that SL lost nearly USD 4.0Bn foreign inflow due to TOURISM INDUSTRY DISASTER spooked because of C19. That led to current FX demand/supply issue and further fueled by vaccine imports.

What the GOVERNMENT is planning to do is;

1. Manage FX issue with IMPORT CONTROL as much as possible while growing EXPORTS 
2. Vaccinate in full by September and START TOURISM where the hotel workers given priority for vaccines(already directions issued)
3. Obtain SWAP facilities to bridge USD required as a ST measure 
4. Government would go to IMF as the last option 

Therefore, as investors I see the present situation creates a GOLDEN OPPORTUNITY to BUY as some investors might panic without understanding the situation. The great investor Warren Buffet made BILLIONS in 2008 during subprime mortgage crisis 

Good Luck 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/theweek.com/articles/459166/how-warren-buffett-made-10-billion-during-financial-crisis%3famp

Market correction next week - Support level 7100 - Page 2 30b25b10

samaritan likes this post

ADVENTUS


Moderator
Moderator
@ONTHEMONEY wrote:Hi all,

There is NO CRISIS in SL right now. Everyone can realize it ONCE THE JULY 2021 DEBT PAYMENT MADE (USD 1.0Bn) without any issue.

What everyone needs to UNDERSTAND is that SL lost nearly USD 4.0Bn foreign inflow due to TOURISM INDUSTRY DISASTER spooked because of C19. That led to current FX demand/supply issue and further fueled by vaccine imports.

What the GOVERNMENT is planning to do is;

1. Manage FX issue with IMPORT CONTROL as much as possible while growing EXPORTS 
2. Vaccinate in full by September and START TOURISM where the hotel workers given priority for vaccines(already directions issued)
3. Obtain SWAP facilities to bridge USD required as a ST measure 
4. Government would go to IMF as the last option 

Therefore, as investors I see the present situation creates a GOLDEN OPPORTUNITY to BUY as some investors might panic without understanding the situation. The great investor Warren Buffet made BILLIONS in 2008 during subprime mortgage crisis 

Good Luck 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/theweek.com/articles/459166/how-warren-buffett-made-10-billion-during-financial-crisis%3famp

Market correction next week - Support level 7100 - Page 2 30b25b10
Government actually lost a total of roughly USD 8-9 BN last year: USD 4BN from tourism and another USD 4-5BN due to tax (reducing VAT and scrapping NBT). 
This year is worse. 

But, yes, I agree this would be the best time.

 The gvt may set aside their prejudices and seek help from IMF and restructure debt. 
Also, if the vaccination programme is completed as planned by September (60% of the population, that is roughly 225,000 people a day)  and manage the spread of the delta variant- we could see a surge in August, so gvt. should impose a two week lock down as soon they notice this-.

If all goes well, we should be able to open the country for tourism in winter. 
Bull run! Very Happy 

Cheers!

ONTHEMONEY and judecroos like this post

celtic tiger


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
We have a Doller shortage NOT rupees so more local investors will find CSE the place to invest. Especially Millennials. As long as honey printing and low interest rates prevail CSE will be fine.

nigma, ADVENTUS and judecroos like this post

ONTHEMONEY


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Hi all, 

I sense the BELOW INFORMATION would be VERY USEFUL for EVERYONE to UNDERSTAND the SITUATION

How the Govt. is EXPECTING to manage the debt payments: 

Confirmed Inflows from end May 2021 to End December 2021: 
Exports: USD 6.6 bn 
Remittances (net): USD 4 bn
China SWAP: USD 1.5 bn
SARC SWAP: USD 400 mn
Bangladesh SWAP: USD 200 mn
IMF: USD 780 mn
Total inflows from May to December 2021: USD 13.5 bn (worst case scenario) 

Other possible inflows: 
Port City construction inflow (net): USD 500 mn
Possible tourism (if vaccination plan comes through by Sept): USD 400 mn
India SWAP: USD 1 bn
Total inflows (optimistic scenario) from May to December 2021: USD 15.4 bn

Outflows from end May to end December 2021: 
Imports: USD 11.5 bn
Debt payments: USD 2.6 bn
Total outflows from end May till End December: USD 14.1 bn

End May Reserve position: USD 4 bn 

Thus, reserves position at the end of 2021 will be at USD 3.4 bn even at the worst case scenario. Under the optimistic scenario, it could go upto USD 
5.3 bn. The actual could be between these two figures. 

But due to mismatch of inflow and outflow timing, reserves may go up or down from the year end estimate during the year. 

Going to the IMF: Sri Lanka can go to IMF anytime. Sri Lanka lost Tourism income for three years now (2019, 2020, 2021 so far). If the vaccination drive continues at this rate, we might be able to open up for tourism by end September. But the Government should not rely on this alone and must source other borrowings and SWAPs to ensure smooth sailing till at least mid of 2022. 

So far only two countries Argentina and Ecuador has gone to IMF for restructuring. 

So without fear mongering, we should support the vaccination drive that the Government has so far been extremely successful, understand the actual situation, that these are difficult times and do our bit to help the country get through.

Good Luck 

ADVENTUS and 901886683 like this post

SECsux


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@SECsux wrote:
@ForeigNer wrote:Most small investers feared a possible market correction in next two weeks. Experts predict the supporting level will be around 7100 level if not supported will move down to 6800 level.

Facts ;

* Month end Margin settlements,
* Unfavorable macro economic conditions.
* Rising fuel cost,
* Overpriced TILE SECTOR
* Dependency on LOLC share for volume/index movement
* Downward trend of BIL ( most favorite share of retailers )
ch* kollo
koo meka liyapu wadda. tongue tongue

nigma and ADVENTUS like this post

Wickyz


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Corona 4th wave started
Book your profit my frieends

Eranx


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
I dont believe that covid can impact to the health of the mkt anymore as now people are used to live with it..dont get panicked

samaritan and Eranx like this post

Wickyz


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Otherwise your will lost again, 😃😆😃😆😃😆😆😃😆😃😁

samaritan


Moderator
Moderator
@Eranx wrote:I dont believe that covid can impact to the health of the mkt anymore as now people are used to live with it..dont get panicked
Agree. Even after every citizen receives both jabs of vaccination, Covid may remain as just another illness with much less severity. We may have to continue with the new normal wearing masks, maintaining social distancing and washing hands. In other words may be a permanent change in lifestyle.  


_________________




The biggest risk in life is not taking any risk at all.

Eranx likes this post

Wickyz


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@samaritan wrote:
@Eranx wrote:I dont believe that covid can impact to the health of the mkt anymore as now people are used to live with it..dont get panicked
Agree. Even after every citizen receives both jabs of vaccination, Covid may remain as just another illness with much less severity. We may have to continue with the new normal wearing masks, maintaining social distancing and washing hands. In other words may be a permanent change in lifestyle.  
Ha ha.
Let's see😃😃

samaritan likes this post

Wickyz


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Another downgrade.???
Chi lanka goes to defult country

Wickyz


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Lot more come dears

D.G.Dayaratne


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
There may be a market correction. It will  not  go below support  level 7800

We have seen abnormal increase during recent past

samaritan


Moderator
Moderator
@D.G.Dayaratne wrote:There may be a market correction. It will  not  go below support  level 7800

We have seen abnormal increase during recent past
In my opinion the recent increase is not abnormal. It was a slow & steady progress. 
Market is witnessing an increase in liquidity following the tax amnesty.
Market correction next week - Support level 7100 - Page 2 E64KFelUUAA3HXs?format=jpg&name=360x360

This could take the market to ATH in the near future.


_________________




The biggest risk in life is not taking any risk at all.

Rational Investor

Rational Investor
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
There will not be any correction until the index reach 8350-8400.Even after that very minor pullback.

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