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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » CHRONICLE™ ANALYTICS » TWOD technical Analysis

TWOD technical Analysis

+4
Tiger
mark
smallville
aero
8 posters

Go down  Message [Page 1 of 1]

1TWOD technical Analysis Empty TWOD technical Analysis Fri Jul 01, 2011 11:25 pm

aero


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

[img][You must be registered and logged in to see this image.][/img]
ROC +7.02
MACD price +1.7
MACD volume +1.26
RSI 54
i'm starting to learn technical..which indicator show me,how many volume traded by specific price and specific period a day?
Need valuable discussion from u all technical Analysis..I expect special comment from
smallville,Quibit,gann,

This is not a recommendation to buy,sell or hold any share..only 4 studying technical pattern..

2TWOD technical Analysis Empty Re: TWOD technical Analysis Sun Jul 03, 2011 8:27 pm

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics

Here's how my TWOD chart looks like now.. Clearly the MACD lines (both modified version & Original version is above the signal line indicating an upward movement. Also DEMA/TEMA indicators are up and are on the path to meeting signal line.
Strong volume contribution is witnessed in last 3 days as well.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

More clear image is here;
https://i.servimg.com/u/f48/16/18/50/04/twod10.png

TWOD is all about their lands and the trees they grow on it.. Its always a future valued venture where the investments grow over a period of 3-15 years. Once these trees are matured this wouuld worth more than it's net asset value.
Since these are biological assets, best thing to value based on the net assets as well;

Financials
[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

According to CSE' EQUITY MARKET SECTOR SUMMARY, as at 01-07-11, L&P sector PE = 23.30
At an EPS of 11.52, the counter is trading at 2X.
NAVPS being 50.37, the current share price being 26.10 is really a fraction of this.

On the financial reports the company has stated "The Supreme Court Case No SPL LA 42/10 had been postponed on numerous occasions and finally it is fixed for hearing on the 18th of July 2011."

Pls do some home work on this. While its not crap on fundamental values, I have bought TWOD purely on tech grounds and may be my views are biased.

3TWOD technical Analysis Empty Re: TWOD technical Analysis Sun Jul 03, 2011 8:41 pm

mark

mark
Expert
Expert

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]


*RSI-55(not much over sold)
*Stochastic-almost closing to upper line
*Bollinger Band-prices continually touch the upper Bollinger band, the prices are thought to be overbought
*MACD-fast line(blue-12day MA) crosses the red line in downward(so signaling bearish movement)

i may be wrong,just an idea Very Happy

4TWOD technical Analysis Empty Re: TWOD technical Analysis Sun Jul 03, 2011 9:08 pm

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics

1.) Mostly Stochastics goes over bought and then continue to be in that range for some more days.
2.) MACD tells a different story..
3.) There can be possibilities like; on Monday this would go down, Tuesday to touch 24.50-25 then come up again..
4.) Court case judgement is due on 18th of July.. Around those days this can have several runs Wink
5.) On winning the court case this can go beyond 40 and continue to be in the upward trend.
6.) Huge volumes witnessed on last 3 days. The 3rd day being about 3 times the volume on 1st day.

I think this may be on accumulation phase. Sometimes I may be embarrassingly wrong too Wink

5TWOD technical Analysis Empty Re: TWOD technical Analysis Sun Jul 03, 2011 9:19 pm

Tiger

Tiger
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

@ smallville, Thanks for the interesting post.

I have few concerns, have you seen the pictures posted in their website on their plantations ? To me all of their plantations are like nurseries nowhere near to matured plantations. I think these must be the best pictures that the company has. To me these are very scary pics, that these nurseries can no way cover 5billion valuation.
http://www.touchwood.com/en/take-a-tour/photo-gallery

My second point is, is there any third party actuary valuations done on the biological assets? or is it done only by accountants based on market value bla bla bla.... ?

When this share looks so undervalued and attractive why we dont see big players like institutions and people like Dr. Senthil not investing, Please correct me if I am wrong.

Finally, TWOD seems to be wanting to expand its client base to different parts of the world, one can say its a good thing and someone else can say its kind of ponzi scheme where company seek to tap new liquidity sources to cover existing liabilities (or unwillingly becoming one).

These are some of points that I would consider by looking from a different angle. Having said that, I am bullish on this counter and has substantial investment in this.

6TWOD technical Analysis Empty Re: TWOD technical Analysis Sun Jul 03, 2011 9:48 pm

Rajaraam


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics

While many people are debating on technical and fundamental issues rest of the people are earning money by dealing low risk shares like touchwood.

7TWOD technical Analysis Empty Re: TWOD technical Analysis Sun Jul 03, 2011 9:52 pm

Tiger

Tiger
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

I am one of them Rajaraam. cheers

8TWOD technical Analysis Empty Re: TWOD technical Analysis Sun Jul 03, 2011 10:11 pm

Rajaraam


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics

Myself too tiger, I love this share bcs its price fluctuations. And I have made money during the last hearing time as well. Now I have already collected and waitiing for not much just 10%-15 % increase before 18th july. It is a sure bet for me..

9TWOD technical Analysis Empty Re: TWOD technical Analysis Sun Jul 03, 2011 10:16 pm

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics

Tiger wrote:@ smallville, Thanks for the interesting post.

I have few concerns, have you seen the pictures posted in their website on their plantations ? To me all of their plantations are like nurseries nowhere near to matured plantations. I think these must be the best pictures that the company has. To me these are very scary pics, that these nurseries can no way cover 5billion valuation.
http://www.touchwood.com/en/take-a-tour/photo-gallery

My second point is, is there any third party actuary valuations done on the biological assets? or is it done only by accountants based on market value bla bla bla.... ?

When this share looks so undervalued and attractive why we dont see big players like institutions and people like Dr. Senthil not investing, Please correct me if I am wrong.

Finally, TWOD seems to be wanting to expand its client base to different parts of the world, one can say its a good thing and someone else can say its kind of ponzi scheme where company seek to tap new liquidity sources to cover existing liabilities (or unwillingly becoming one).

These are some of points that I would consider by looking from a different angle. Having said that, I am bullish on this counter and has substantial investment in this.

You have some valid points, remember me saying abt 3-15 yrs of a time to maturity life.. So I dont think we have Warren Buffets here Wink
And at that much of a time period, there can be natural hazards triggering alarms as well.. However consdering their plantations pictures, I think those are still in growing age.. But I heard they may be having some matured crops as well so not sure on it..

My choice of this counter due to technical grounds and not fully on fundamentals.. When u enter on techs, u have make sure u exit at correct time.. My target it 30 Wink But how long could be another subject to talk abt.. If we see uptrend from Monday onward its near..

10TWOD technical Analysis Empty Re: TWOD technical Analysis Sun Jul 03, 2011 10:17 pm

mark

mark
Expert
Expert

this share is many times depend on the court hearing rumors,so applying TA may be embarrassingly misguide.....
so as i and small show above is only a TA image of this share Very Happy ,so think many times before get any decision and also consider the inherited behaviors of particular stock

11TWOD technical Analysis Empty Re: TWOD technical Analysis Sun Jul 03, 2011 10:18 pm

m2_yapa

m2_yapa
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

Rajaraam wrote:While many people are debating on technical and fundamental issues rest of the people are earning money by dealing low risk shares like touchwood.

me too but can any one calculate the PE ratio again...and submit i do not have details as well as time...but i hold 11400 shares collected 24.20 to 25....
without looking at any fundamentals..i only consider it was trading at much low value with current court case...i like fishing in dirty water...! low risk with massive gain,...i am planing to exit somewhere @ 32 to 35..

12TWOD technical Analysis Empty Re: TWOD technical Analysis Sun Jul 03, 2011 10:21 pm

seyon


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

smallville wrote:Here's how my TWOD chart looks like now.. Clearly the MACD lines (both modified version & Original version is above the signal line indicating an upward movement. Also DEMA/TEMA indicators are up and are on the path to meeting signal line.
Strong volume contribution is witnessed in last 3 days as well.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

More clear image is here;
https://i.servimg.com/u/f48/16/18/50/04/twod10.png

TWOD is all about their lands and the trees they grow on it.. Its always a future valued venture where the investments grow over a period of 3-15 years. Once these trees are matured this wouuld worth more than it's net asset value.
Since these are biological assets, best thing to value based on the net assets as well;

According to CSE' EQUITY MARKET SECTOR SUMMARY, as at 01-07-11, L&P sector PE = 23.30
At an EPS of 11.52, the counter is trading at 2X.
NAVPS being 50.37, the current share price being 26.10 is really a fraction of this.

On the financial reports the company has stated "The Supreme Court Case No SPL LA 42/10 had been postponed on numerous occasions and finally it is fixed for hearing on the 18th of July 2011."

Pls do some home work on this. While its not crap on fundamental values, I have bought TWOD purely on tech grounds and may be my views are biased.


Hi Small

What is ur prediction of price range based on ur technical chart before court case ( 18.07.2011) will it be in the range of 32-35. Can we project the price range based on the current trend,(I just learning tech analysis). I am sure it will have good run before the case, but not sure about the price range,

Further as u said it the outcome is favorable, This will be on bull run.

Pls tell me How would be the price range before the case, based onur technical analysis knowledge.


13TWOD technical Analysis Empty Re: TWOD technical Analysis Sun Jul 03, 2011 10:35 pm

Marketinvest

Marketinvest
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

PE 3.63 as per bloomberg

14TWOD technical Analysis Empty Re: TWOD technical Analysis Sun Jul 03, 2011 10:36 pm

m2_yapa

m2_yapa
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

Market Price =Rs. 26.10
EPS = 11.52
PE calculation = 26.10/11.52=2.26
NAVPS = 50 this can be happen with any firm holding many land as properties..same like plantation sectors...any way their PE ratio is very low...i hope they are the lowest....it mean any time can break up...

15TWOD technical Analysis Empty Re: TWOD technical Analysis Tue Jul 05, 2011 9:49 pm

Tiger

Tiger
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

Hi Guys, I have seen that the company has just uploaded some more pictures after my post. Some immature plantation pics.

http://www.touchwood.com/en/take-a-tour/photo-gallery

However still my concern is valid, can these plantations cover 5billion as of today? Not future value its today's value, or discounted value etc... its pure today value.

I wish that court to deliver its verdict to estimate fare value in the absence of SLAS, then we will have a a reasonable assurance of its value.

16TWOD technical Analysis Empty Re: TWOD technical Analysis Tue Jul 05, 2011 11:54 pm

aero


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

[img][You must be registered and logged in to see this image.][/img]

update

17TWOD technical Analysis Empty Re: TWOD technical Analysis Wed Jul 06, 2011 12:25 am

Marketinvest

Marketinvest
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

Will the verdict happen this time or will it be postponed again

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