@ ON THE MONEY
Refer to your above Point number 5 - USD/LKR depreciation.......
below is my view & Open for discussion,
as at 30.06.2021 EXPO Financials disclosed Trade debts receivables as LKR 73 Bn.
31st march Annual report Segmental anal note, clearly shows more than 90% are foreign income.
Means, above LKR 73 Bn x 90% = LKR 65 Bn from Foreign Receivables, which is USD 330 Mn and this has to be valued at CBSL June closing Average of 199.47.
EXPO's debtor days are 60 - 65 days and hope, half of USD 330 recovered in July.
End July CBSL Exchange Closing 200.49 and increased by Rs.1
means they have realized Exchange Gain of 165 x 1 = USD 165 Mn and same as unrealized another Exchange gain of 165 x 1 = USD 165 Mn. Means total gain to P&L = USD 330 Mn x 1 = LKR 330 Mn.
In same basis, august is best and I Assumed August CBSL closing may be 206 around (still pending) , So, they might get massive USD 330 Mn x 5 =LKR 1.6 Bn. (without considering additional sales impact to its revenue).
My expectation for September also Exchange rates can further go up say minimum to Closing 210/212 and if so, they can generate another LKR 1 - 1.2 Bn Exchange gains.
So, I hope they are in line to generate additional cash for Q2 = LKR 300 Mn + 1.5 Bn + 1.2 = 3 Bn.
If my predictions
are correct, they will have to generate minimum
of additional LKR 3 Bn for its Q2 and it will helps to boost their EPS by additional 1.5 due to USD/LKR depreciation.
Open for discussion and your views.