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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » CORPORATE CHRONICLE™ » Recent power cuts Vs CSE

Recent power cuts Vs CSE

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mark
ISURU
6 posters

Go down  Message [Page 1 of 1]

1Recent power cuts Vs CSE Empty Recent power cuts Vs CSE Tue Jul 05, 2011 6:34 pm

ISURU

ISURU
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

How power cuts will be affected to the CSE?
Your comments are welcome!

2Recent power cuts Vs CSE Empty Re: Recent power cuts Vs CSE Tue Jul 05, 2011 6:36 pm

mark

mark
Expert
Expert

ISURU wrote:How the power cuts will be affected to the CSE?
Your comments are welcome!

many retailers are unable to switch on their coms,so some may miss the chances Sad

3Recent power cuts Vs CSE Empty Re: Recent power cuts Vs CSE Tue Jul 05, 2011 6:39 pm

MarketResearch

MarketResearch
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

There would be a big demand for the power supply.
It would be a big demand for PAP and others.


OR

It would be badly affected to those firms?

4Recent power cuts Vs CSE Empty Re: Recent power cuts Vs CSE Tue Jul 05, 2011 7:32 pm

themask

themask
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

MarketResearch wrote:There would be a big demand for the power supply.
It would be a big demand for PAP and others.


OR

It would be badly affected to those firms?

Don't make such comments if you don't know the sector and the IPP agreements. Usually these renewable plants can supply whatever the amount of units they produce and CEB is bound to buy. Then again for plants like ACE Power(Thermal Plants), there is a minimum guaranteed amount of units that CEB has to buy per a year and the plant is expected to supply it.
So what you should understand here is, there would be no additional demand for PAP and other mini hydros because CEB is already buying what they can supply. But then again these are Mini Hydros, not some large battery banks or something where they can store energy and supply whenever they wish. Since these plants are run from water, if the water levels are low in the feeding streams then they are no longer capable of producing electricity since they don't have reservoirs to store water. The dry conditions will only reduce their revenue and not otherwise.
However thermal plants like ACE Power/AES will gain a little bit from this since they have to run continuously to cater the demand because sometimes CEB asks them to stop their plants when the demand is low. For example there are 14 Diesel engines in ACE Power Embilipitiya and sometimes CEB asks them to run only about 8 engines for shorter periods (Say 1am to 4am in the early hours). But these days they have to run in full capacity the whole day.

5Recent power cuts Vs CSE Empty Re: Recent power cuts Vs CSE Tue Jul 05, 2011 7:46 pm

MarketResearch

MarketResearch
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

themask wrote:
MarketResearch wrote:There would be a big demand for the power supply.
It would be a big demand for PAP and others.


OR

It would be badly affected to those firms?

Don't make such comments if you don't know the sector and the IPP agreements. Usually these renewable plants can supply whatever the amount of units they produce and CEB is bound to buy. Then again for plants like ACE Power(Thermal Plants), there is a minimum guaranteed amount of units that CEB has to buy per a year and the plant is expected to supply it.
So what you should understand here is, there would be no additional demand for PAP and other mini hydros because CEB is already buying what they can supply. But then again these are Mini Hydros, not some large battery banks or something where they can store energy and supply whenever they wish. Since these plants are run from water, if the water levels are low in the feeding streams then they are no longer capable of producing electricity since they don't have reservoirs to store water. The dry conditions will only reduce their revenue and not otherwise.
However thermal plants like ACE Power/AES will gain a little bit from this since they have to run continuously to cater the demand because sometimes CEB asks them to stop their plants when the demand is low. For example there are 14 Diesel engines in ACE Power Embilipitiya and sometimes CEB asks them to run only about 8 engines for shorter periods (Say 1am to 4am in the early hours). But these days they have to run in full capacity the whole day.

I do not know the all that you know.Danna widiyata tamai mahattayo reply kale. "Do NOT" kiyanna epa.

6Recent power cuts Vs CSE Empty Re: Recent power cuts Vs CSE Tue Jul 05, 2011 7:55 pm

themask

themask
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

Sorry my bad. Just figured it was a bit harsh. Nothing personal mate.

7Recent power cuts Vs CSE Empty Re: Recent power cuts Vs CSE Tue Jul 05, 2011 7:58 pm

MarketResearch

MarketResearch
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

themask wrote:Sorry my bad. Just figured it was a bit harsh. Nothing personal mate.

I am Cool.....

Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy

8Recent power cuts Vs CSE Empty Re: Recent power cuts Vs CSE Tue Jul 05, 2011 8:17 pm

Rajaraam


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics

themask,
Your point with regard to hydro power Is very true. They can genarate as much as water is available and all power genarated will be purchased by CEB. So in order to increase profit they will have to increase capacities with huge investment. However maintenance and operating cost of hydro is very much low compared to thermal power.
Question of thermal power; CEB purchase any shortfall from the thermal power genarating companies. But now with the commencement of CEB's Coal power operations gradualy they will reduce buying thermal power in order to minimise the cost. This is the problem now Ace power is facing. According to news their Agreement will be over by 2012. CEB has not yet given signal to extend it as per available information.



Last edited by Rajaraam on Tue Jul 05, 2011 8:35 pm; edited 1 time in total

9Recent power cuts Vs CSE Empty Re: Recent power cuts Vs CSE Tue Jul 05, 2011 8:28 pm

mark

mark
Expert
Expert

MarketResearch wrote:
themask wrote:Sorry my bad. Just figured it was a bit harsh. Nothing personal mate.

I am Cool.....

Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy

given rep for both,but dnt know why given -rep to mask scratch scratch

10Recent power cuts Vs CSE Empty Re: Recent power cuts Vs CSE Tue Jul 05, 2011 8:33 pm

themask

themask
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

ACE Power Embilipitiya can supply until 2015 which is their biggest plant (100MW). However their Matara and Horana(20MW each) plants might be discontinued after the expiration of agreements. But the Embilipitiya plant MIGHT be extended because its in a remote location and CEB needs it in order to maintain proper voltages in that area since there are no big power plants nearby.

11Recent power cuts Vs CSE Empty Re: Recent power cuts Vs CSE Tue Jul 05, 2011 8:39 pm

Rajaraam


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics

themask, Your point has a good weight. Thank u for sharing information.

12Recent power cuts Vs CSE Empty Re: Recent power cuts Vs CSE Tue Jul 05, 2011 9:36 pm

chamith

chamith
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

thats true, there will be no demand increase or unit selling price going up.

if there is not enough water then mini hydro power plant's profit will be affected. (since the unit produce will go down).

If you do some extensive math on atleast 10 to 20 years of monthly rainfall in Sri Lanka you will see a clear pattern. If you smooth the pattern then you can see the co-relation of monthly rainfall and output fluctuation of mini hydrow plants. You can get the data from PAP prospects.

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