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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » CSD-Massively undervalued ?

CSD-Massively undervalued ?

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1CSD-Massively undervalued ? Empty CSD-Massively undervalued ? Tue Jul 12, 2011 12:09 pm

hunter

hunter
Moderator
Moderator
These days CSD trades around 11/-.
The latest reports show a NAV above 47/-

Is there anything hidden or does it worth 4times the market price or am I mistaken somewhere?

2CSD-Massively undervalued ? Empty Re: CSD-Massively undervalued ? Tue Jul 12, 2011 6:42 pm

Hiru


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@hunter wrote:These days CSD trades around 11/-.
The latest reports show a NAV above 47/-

Is there anything hidden or does it worth 4times the market price or am I mistaken somewhere?

Check there was a right issue in between

3CSD-Massively undervalued ? Empty Re: CSD-Massively undervalued ? Tue Jul 12, 2011 7:17 pm

hunter

hunter
Moderator
Moderator
Thanks Hiru.
Now it makes sense.

4CSD-Massively undervalued ? Empty Re: CSD-Massively undervalued ? Tue Jul 12, 2011 7:46 pm

cse.profit

cse.profit
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
No it doesnt make any sense hunter....this share will give u solid returns within very few months from now.....any one who is collecting at these price levels will not regret............even after 1:1 rg8s issue just calculate the net asset value....47/2=23.5..............we all our missing sometng.....i have some more info as well...but for now will limit to this small hints coz still im in my collection period.....

do you know why this share isnt going up.....u have th eanswer for now..its ignorance...simple example..luk at this forum itself.....lot of people are very knowledgable....but all the way they talk big shares such as softlogic,vallibal,jkh..so forth and so on......nothing wrong in that...but have you ever heard people talking about this share...csd....go to the forum search option and type csd....you will find 0 posts..u wont even find even this post beacause even here ur post is csd- not csd...so me profeessional forum eke mehema nam market eke mona kathada.......people go for rallies..not for value....once their comes a rally for csd...mind you it would surpass even 30.....gud luck....i have bought and buying significant amounts at 11.2/11.5...and hoping at 11......if thier were no rally hopefully u will c my name in the top 20 shareholders next time..but if thier was a rally i'll get off @ 23...100%is more than enough for me for some millions..............all the best

5CSD-Massively undervalued ? Empty Re: CSD-Massively undervalued ? Tue Jul 12, 2011 8:35 pm

hunter

hunter
Moderator
Moderator
Wow! cse.profit
You look a lot knowledgeable on CSD.
I have a little worry that they make operational losses.
What do you think about that?
Can they become profitable?
Or will they liquidate soon?
Now I see either way it will be a winning situ unless there is some hidden risk.

6CSD-Massively undervalued ? Empty Re: CSD-Massively undervalued ? Tue Jul 12, 2011 10:58 pm

Chinwi

Chinwi
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
I have to agree with Mr. csd.profit. Congrat. for your first post.

About 2 weeks ago I went through the CSD report.

After the fully superscribed rights issue , their debt and interest costs are to go down and they are reaching 100% occupancy levels.

They have assets in Colombo (including Seylan Tower) revalued in 2009, before the current boom.
After the current up trend in land and building value in Colombo they may get a huge increase if they revalue. After completion ( or at the middle) of Shangri-la and other nearby developments, we may not get a chance to own CSD at current prices.

Note: I bought some last week because i felt it is a good share to collect . It may also help us to recover loss incurred from others.

--- ---

I have almost stopped putting this kind of findings in these forums. For last few months, chart readers outshined fundamentals in the forums - no worries. At CSE, manipulators and rally mongers dominated chasing away real investors .
Useless shares outperformed good shares selected by us. People went after highly overpriced IPOs dumping value gems to garbage. Most of the people want quick money, they do not mind what they buy and sell.

Apart from CSD, I am getting sparks in my mind about CFVF and CSEC due to some reason. Last year I met Mr. Dinesh Shafter and he described his vision for using billions they had during the year ahead. Now I know he was correct and the money has grown. I wish to meet him again.
I may publish info in brief, later.

7CSD-Massively undervalued ? Empty Re: CSD-Massively undervalued ? Tue Jul 12, 2011 11:15 pm

Monster

Monster
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Chinwi wrote:

I have almost stopped putting this kind of findings in these forums. For last few months, chart readers outshined fundamentals in the forums - no worries. At CSE, manipulators and rally mongers dominated chasing away real investors .
Chinwi, please continue your findings. I never missed to read your comments. You are one of the most experienced member in this forum.

Coming back to CSD, the funds they have collected from right issue is to be used to settle interest bearing loans and borrowing, which will reduce finance expenses. So, from next quarter, probably CSD will be a profitable company.

8CSD-Massively undervalued ? Empty Re: CSD-Massively undervalued ? Tue Jul 12, 2011 11:21 pm

RichDad

RichDad
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
CSD will have a bright future.

There were changes made to the Management during
the second half of the last year with new appointments
being made both at the board level and the senior
managerial levels. Company is going through a restructuring process. Losses were cut down to 445k in the last quarter on the contrary to the last year 22,635k. Expect this to be in the positive profit region in the coming quarter.

Continuous improvements in the main income stream which is rental income. Losses are due to making provisions relating to Ceylinco group exposure that had to be made last year in accordance with the Sri Lanka Accounting standards.

Company's strategy for 2011 is to divert focus
from property development to property management.

Plus we can see some visionary investors like DP, Dr Senthil, MM Udeshi, Swiss Lloyd Ltd have some big chunks.

Arrangements were made to settle outstanding statutory dues and other payables through the money pumped by the right issue.

NAVPS as at 31-03-2011 = 47.56, even with the 1:1 dilution it's worth more than Rs.25/- when the inflation is matched.

Any idea as to who bought a majority of the shares in the right issue?

9CSD-Massively undervalued ? Empty Re: CSD-Massively undervalued ? Tue Jul 12, 2011 11:32 pm

player

player
Moderator
Moderator
@Chinwi wrote:I have to agree with Mr. csd.profit. Congrat. for your first post.

About 2 weeks ago I went through the CSD report.

After the fully superscribed rights issue , their debt and interest costs are to go down and they are reaching 100% occupancy levels.

They have assets in Colombo (including Seylan Tower) revalued in 2009, before the current boom.
After the current up trend in land and building value in Colombo they may get a huge increase if they revalue. After completion ( or at the middle) of Shangri-la and other nearby developments, we may not get a chance to own CSD at current prices.

Note: I bought some last week because i felt it is a good share to collect . It may also help us to recover loss incurred from others.

--- ---

I have almost stopped putting this kind of findings in these forums. For last few months, chart readers outshined fundamentals in the forums - no worries. At CSE, manipulators and rally mongers dominated chasing away real investors .
Useless shares outperformed good shares selected by us. People went after highly overpriced IPOs dumping value gems to garbage. Most of the people want quick money, they do not mind what they buy and sell.

Apart from CSD, I am getting sparks in my mind about CFVF and CSEC due to some reason. Last year I met Mr. Dinesh Shafter and he described his vision for using billions they had during the year ahead. Now I know he was correct and the money has grown. I wish to meet him again.
I may publish info in brief, later.

splendid,what a experience and HNWI connections.... Very Happy
please share your findings,we will be very grateful.
im hardly giving reps,here is my second rep to you. Very Happy

*according to post.....
aladdin did a watchlist game about CSD,so she deserve to be name in this thread.

http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t5778-watchlist-game-identify-the-share#42887

the first share SEYB did rose sharply after she put the post,when she was putting the post even SEYB TA shows strong buy signals.the previous watchlists are useless and no facts,but in here there is something.

will see on CSD,btw i still do consider my buying decision bcoz of current market


Very Happy

10CSD-Massively undervalued ? Empty Re: CSD-Massively undervalued ? Wed Jul 13, 2011 9:30 am

raa


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
CSD was profitable if not for debt, and the rights issue wiped it off so I'm hoping for a tiny dividend while i wait for the run. This could go up with either a change in market conditions, following a run of SEYB or a real estate run.

11CSD-Massively undervalued ? Empty Look At CSD! Wed Jul 13, 2011 1:20 pm

m2_yapa

m2_yapa
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Guys almost one hr to go CSD buying pressure increased suddenly and marginally look at that...

12CSD-Massively undervalued ? Empty Re: CSD-Massively undervalued ? Wed Jul 13, 2011 1:30 pm

uditha9


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
i fully agree.csd is going to be a real winner

13CSD-Massively undervalued ? Empty Re: CSD-Massively undervalued ? Wed Jul 13, 2011 1:33 pm

hunter

hunter
Moderator
Moderator
Guys, thanks for your valuable comments.
CSD is proving me well worth holding on to.

14CSD-Massively undervalued ? Empty Re: CSD-Massively undervalued ? Thu Aug 11, 2011 11:36 am

Chinwi

Chinwi
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Hunter,

Oya kee weni thattuweda den inne ? Very Happy

15CSD-Massively undervalued ? Empty Re: CSD-Massively undervalued ? Thu Aug 11, 2011 11:44 am

hunter

hunter
Moderator
Moderator
Above the first floor always Chinwi. bounce
Practicing some swing/day trading now.


16CSD-Massively undervalued ? Empty Re: CSD-Massively undervalued ? Fri Sep 09, 2011 5:13 pm

cse.profit

cse.profit
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
Really sorry for not replying timely. Usually nowadays due to a personal commitment i occasionally come online and post. but i track each and every post of this forum. First of all i would like to thank CSD for giving me few millions of profit. This is wonderful company and I sold my lot which i bought in the 11 range at its peak 20 range. I am a investor and i am in great love with this company for its fundamental value and the potential for future growth. I got in to few other shares after dealing with csd and I am planning to enter within next week based on the momentum. This is for the people who thinks that i am a trader. No way. I am FIRM INVESTOR. people i bought at 11 and sold at 20 . so overall a 100% gain over . but i would like to reveal the murderers of this share. they are the crooked traders who comes with huge amount of credit when they see a momentum. this is the real problem. few day traders who wanted a quick buck entered in to this share few days a go and ruined the momentum. I am NOT AGAINST AT DAY TRADERS. even i do day trading sometimes. Its about the day traders without any real cash. all what they play is with broker credit and from 10 cents step by step they brought down the share price. so pathetic to observe. once i sold i was bit excited when th eprice was falling. but when it fall up to this 15/16 range rather than being happy so that i can buy few millions shares for some lower price i was really upset about what happend to the CSD share. this was a hidden gem for some time back and still lot of people knows the value but still , dont want to enter as investors. all are going after rallies and want quick money. as i said in a earlier post get in to this bus quickly otherwise it will go off. I can predict one thing for sure. for this hare to go up the trading psycohology should be changed. for that first let th eday traders without any cash in thier pockets sell off and let them take this share to 15/14/11/10/6/3/2 or even 10 cents...keep no worries people. just after these crazy people get off the remaining value investors wil take the price in to 20/25/30(NAV) in no time. so this is to the people who bought at 20/19/18/17 range please if you have holding power keep this for a while. you would minimise your losses drastically and might even get an awesome profit if you are patience is high. I could have told that i still have the shares which i bought at 11 and to manipulate saying that this will go up in th eshort term. but due to my policies without thinking any personal benefits i spoke the truth saying that i sold my lot at 20's. this is farmost on eof the most attractive compnaies in th emarket where CLND.EAST skyrockets CSD is still sleeping. i will re enter before he wakes up.I think he will not wake up for atleast in next week. so i have a good chance of grabbing it around 15. would be happy to collect it around 14.5. so all the best CSD holders if you can switch off your monitor and stay for few months you will get a super gain as which i got.

@hunter -
http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/617_1311938821351.pdf

all your answers are in that pdf. Its a spectacular performance within a very short term and the company is turning around. total revenue has increased by 25.72%(45,025/35,813*100-100).other income has increased by 538%(7,471/1,171*100-100).. operational expense have been reduced by 50.74%(-(25353-12448)/25353*100). finance expenses have been totally turnaround. it was negative 35.789 million and it has been a plus 22.36 million. finance expense is an expense by definition and isn't it weird.hehe..this might be due to the interest earned on the surplus rights money and it states that CSD is rich with both cash and company/land valuation. company has turnaround from a loss to a profit. The interesting part is the comparison of the profit and losses figure. its an exceptional turnaround. earlier it reported a net loss of 25.3 million. mind you . this is a negative figure. they have some how not minimized the profits, but exceeded the break even point and recorded a profit. the best part is the recorded profit which is 54.9 million positive profit is much more than the double the loss they had. so if you want to use the principle of marginal profit and calculate the performance. they have made additional 80.2 million over the period comparatively. EPS has changed from negative 64 cents to positive 68 cents. its a complete turnaround.NAVPS as at 31-03-2011 = 47.56 and as at 30-06-2011 =29.65 where between the 3 months period it has increased by 24.68%(29.65/(47.56/2)*100-100). Isn't this marvelous. 25% increase over the net assets value as well. As chinwi mentioned "After the current up trend in land and building value in Colombo they may get a huge increase if they revalue. After completion ( or at the middle) of Shangri-la and other nearby developments, we may not get a chance to own CSD at current prices". so this is enough of the financial analysis. my god what a performance within 3/6 months and they have utilized the rights money to the max and if they sustain the same June quarter results in the nest report no one can stop this flying over .......(will not say any prices). so hunter just tell me one stock trading in the entire CSE which has had a exceptional performance like this & still trading at a very meager 48.14%((15.4-29.7)/29.7*100) below the NAV. I think right now at the moment when considering all the crappy shares which have absurd valuation this is a GEM for sure. I think you are satisfied with my post hunter

@chinwi- thank you brother. sorry for the late reply. will enter to csd next week. due to crooked credit backed traders i will be able to grab my portion without any risk .

I would love some crazy fellows to dispose in the range of 14 so that i can fill my pockets with the Seylan Tower....all the best....even after selling all my holdings , giving reasons for the share was a bit uncomfortable situation for me.since i rarely get a free time to post will take the opportunity and posted. God bless me and keep the prices down until i collect . After all I am human too.any way ALL THE BEST CSD HOLDERS.

17CSD-Massively undervalued ? Empty Re: CSD-Massively undervalued ? Fri Sep 09, 2011 5:58 pm

hunter

hunter
Moderator
Moderator
@cse.profit,
It's nice to see your write up. You say you don't have time usually but when you do, it seems you have time to write very long posts. Whatever, I like what you write and pls keep on doing so. Your writing style reminds me of somebody who was in another forum some time ago; and I saw some of friends here were looking for that particular personality.

Anyway, Pls tell me how can you exit and enter with perfect timing like in CSD? What is the magic?
Enter @ 11/- Exit @ 20/-

I also did that partially, but it was just coincidence I would say.

One more question cse.profit, Do you believe in keeping all the eggs in one basket?

18CSD-Massively undervalued ? Empty Re: CSD-Massively undervalued ? Fri Sep 09, 2011 6:54 pm

Roboticfx

Roboticfx
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
good post. Very Happy I burnt myself from csd. Embarassed

19CSD-Massively undervalued ? Empty Re: CSD-Massively undervalued ? Fri Sep 09, 2011 9:02 pm

cse.profit

cse.profit
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
@hunter- Thanks for the compliment. yes i always prefer the quality over the quantity and when i get the time will use the maximum and will try to share the best. hmmm. will not give any hints to identify my previous profile name in investnow. No need to figure out also. Investnow.lk was past and the present and the future seems to be the sri lanakan equity analytics. Qubit has done a wonderful job and really proud about her calibre. by posting quality material and creating a healthy dialect we can bring this forum to new heights. I will start from the scracth in this forum.

No it was not magic. I always set my target before i enter a trade. entry point , exit point , stop loss ..etc...If the market trend is normal i do execute at my targeted prices.This is what i have said in my first post.

"i have bought and buying significant amounts at 11.2/11.5...and hoping at 11......if their were no rally hopefully u will c my name in the top 20 shareholders next time..but if their was a rally I'll get off @ 23...100%is more than enough for me for some millions..............all the best"

so you can always check my credibility by comparing the posts and my recent activity. my exit price was 23/22(100% profit) and when it rallied up to 20's range i sold half of my portfolio thinking to keep the other half if it goes higher.since it stagnated around 20's and start going down i planned to exit completely. so in total for around average price of 20 i exited. all was planned. now i will re - enter next week around 15 and collect my lot and will wait even for months to dispose the second batch at around 25(60%profit) if the trend becomes normal. I have set targets and investment time horizons . so discipline is the magic. most of the time due to this discipline i have cut my profits by selling before the peak. but most of the time i have reduces losses significantly my selling with the minimum loss. When i start trading i was so aggressive and in my first year their were days which i lost 15 lax on a single trade and trying to recover it lost more and more. but discipline and patience has made me more mature and slow and steady now i play the game.

As warren buffet believes on diversification i do respect that concept. but over diversification will loose your focus and will weaken you to see the minute fluctuations in the specific shares and will distract you. so a maximum of 10 shares is preferred although from few years back i have tried to reduce it to 2 shares and still have got the maximum benefit. the reason is once you believe the share the no need to worry about the profits. so since if you put all your eggs in a golden basket their is a high probability that the eggs become golden too. but choosing the golden basket needs time, practice, expertise and more than any thing luck.
Good luck my friend.

@roboticfx- thanks brother. don't worry. keeping faith re - enter at lower levels. 14/15 range would be an ideal opportunity for us to enter. due to the nature of traders this has a chance of even going further down which will make me more happier to re- enter.all the best

20CSD-Massively undervalued ? Empty Re: CSD-Massively undervalued ? Sat Sep 10, 2011 10:09 am

hunter

hunter
Moderator
Moderator
Excellent comments cse.profit,
I am happy to select you as a role model to anyone who start to invest in share market.
Following are the magics I guess you have excelled which make the big difference.

1. discipline and patience
2. believe the share

After few years of trial and error, I am also beginning to believe in the above. Those two 'magics' can make all the difference between making or loosing a million.

All the best cse.profit. you are a hero!



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