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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » Devil is not so black...

Devil is not so black...

Go down  Message [Page 1 of 1]

1Devil is not so black... Empty Devil is not so black... Tue Jul 12, 2011 1:49 pm

rijayasooriya

rijayasooriya
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Hi Guys,
Even though market is going down look at the turn over....It is not that bad 1900+ already.
So keep ur hopes up...

2Devil is not so black... Empty Re: Devil is not so black... Tue Jul 12, 2011 2:13 pm

suja


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
The only issue is that if it is credit and investors have lost the money on credit it will not come back. But I agree with you that there are some stocks which are very good to collect at this point.

3Devil is not so black... Empty Re: Devil is not so black... Tue Jul 12, 2011 2:35 pm

hipokid

hipokid
Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
what are the stocks ? Shocked

4Devil is not so black... Empty Re: Devil is not so black... Tue Jul 12, 2011 2:42 pm

maalinda


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
what you mean ? am i missing something ?

5Devil is not so black... Empty Re: Devil is not so black... Tue Jul 12, 2011 2:45 pm

hipokid

hipokid
Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
i mean SUJA saied some stocks are good to bye. What are those?

6Devil is not so black... Empty Re: Devil is not so black... Tue Jul 12, 2011 2:53 pm

suja


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Guys I have always commented in my previous posts as well. If you are looking at 1 year and upwards please look at the earnings/growth and also PBV of a stock and also look at how the stock has performed for the last 52 weeks some have gone up drastically but come down by about 50% from the top. If the company and the product has a future and expecting a increased earnings (You could check this through earnings increase yearly) these are the stocks to collect. I can not name the stocks as it will be promoting. There are some good ones in the banking sector , also since CB is going to bring the interest rates down banks will become more profitable. Just my thoughts only.

7Devil is not so black... Empty Re: Devil is not so black... Tue Jul 12, 2011 3:10 pm

Aamiable


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@suja

Banks can regain momentum, ….Observed some momentum in large cap shares in the some groups, could not spot any banks picking up …. what the baking sector stocks to keep on collecting…. Turnover seems to be picking up….

Question

8Devil is not so black... Empty Re: Devil is not so black... Tue Jul 12, 2011 3:19 pm

hipokid

hipokid
Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
i think i want to study more. Since i dont now how to check those what you mentioned Shocked

9Devil is not so black... Empty Re: Devil is not so black... Tue Jul 12, 2011 3:30 pm

optimistic

optimistic
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@rijayasooriya wrote:Hi Guys,
Even though market is going down look at the turn over....It is not that bad 1900+ already.
So keep ur hopes up...

market turnover has been high because people keep on disposing their shares which were obtained from introductions or IPO's. see the main contributors the past few days. they were either shares from introductions or IPO's such as OGL, LOFC, VONE and now etc which are already overvalued. anyway this comment is not meant to pass a negative sentiment.

10Devil is not so black... Empty Re: Devil is not so black... Tue Jul 12, 2011 3:43 pm

StocksWatch


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@rijayasooriya wrote:Hi Guys,
Even though market is going down look at the turn over....It is not that bad 1900+ already.
So keep ur hopes up...

In fact the relatively high volume is what is disturbing for me. If the market comes down on low volumes, I wouldn't bother much. But when it happens on relatively high volume, that is something to worry.

This means there are people out there who are disposing their investment wholesale, isn't it? Otherwise the volume cannot be relatively high. As described in investopedia.com, true capitulation involves extremely high volume and sharp declines which is usually indicated by panic selling.

Anyway I have seen in some specific counters, the volume has dried up. These will recover faster in a short-term recovery of the market.

I am expecting a short term recovery once this panic selling is over because the people will think the bear run is over and start buying. But after that short-term recovery the bear run may again continue...may be until latter part of this year.

11Devil is not so black... Empty Re: Devil is not so black... Tue Jul 12, 2011 8:04 pm

rijayasooriya

rijayasooriya
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@StocksWatch wrote:
@rijayasooriya wrote:Hi Guys,
Even though market is going down look at the turn over....It is not that bad 1900+ already.
So keep ur hopes up...

In fact the relatively high volume is what is disturbing for me. If the market comes down on low volumes, I wouldn't bother much. But when it happens on relatively high volume, that is something to worry.

This means there are people out there who are disposing their investment wholesale, isn't it? Otherwise the volume cannot be relatively high. As described in investopedia.com, true capitulation involves extremely high volume and sharp declines which is usually indicated by panic selling.

Anyway I have seen in some specific counters, the volume has dried up. These will recover faster in a short-term recovery of the market.

I am expecting a short term recovery once this panic selling is over because the people will think the bear run is over and start buying. But after that short-term recovery the bear run may again continue...may be until latter part of this year.
Brother this is buying and selling.
U can not dispose if another person is not purchasing which means market is still attractive and people want to invest on it.
I think this is a + sign.

12Devil is not so black... Empty Re: Devil is not so black... Tue Jul 12, 2011 10:04 pm

StocksWatch


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@rijayasooriya wrote:Brother this is buying and selling.
U can not dispose if another person is not purchasing which means market is still attractive and people want to invest on it.
I think this is a + sign.

I can understand your point. But why don't you take a second to think about the other side of the story? If the market is so attractive why do the people continue to sell at this rate? The answer to that question, as far as I can see, is because there are some concerned people out there who have finally decided to capitulate.

As I said earlier, this panic selling will fade away for sometime (as there are still some people who are not being concerned yet) and then there will be a short-term recovery.

To reinforce what I said earlier and to put it in another way, if the volume decreases when the prices fall, there will be a diminishing supply, creating a supply and demand imbalane and ultimately driving the price up. But a relatively high volume on a day when the prices have fallen sharly is definitely not a good sign. We will see how the market perform tommorow to get a better idea.

P.S. BTW the volume today is only modest, we cann't say it is on higher side compared to the average seen this year.

13Devil is not so black... Empty Re: Devil is not so black... Wed Jul 13, 2011 12:12 am

rijayasooriya

rijayasooriya
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@StocksWatch wrote:
@rijayasooriya wrote:Brother this is buying and selling.
U can not dispose if another person is not purchasing which means market is still attractive and people want to invest on it.
I think this is a + sign.

I can understand your point. But why don't you take a second to think about the other side of the story? If the market is so attractive why do the people continue to sell at this rate? The answer to that question, as far as I can see, is because there are some concerned people out there who have finally decided to capitulate.

As I said earlier, this panic selling will fade away for sometime (as there are still some people who are not being concerned yet) and then there will be a short-term recovery.

To reinforce what I said earlier and to put it in another way, if the volume decreases when the prices fall, there will be a diminishing supply, creating a supply and demand imbalane and ultimately driving the price up. But a relatively high volume on a day when the prices have fallen sharly is definitely not a good sign. We will see how the market perform tommorow to get a better idea.

P.S. BTW the volume today is only modest, we cann't say it is on higher side compared to the average seen this year.

Now market is not attractive for most people.
When the market is going down panic selling happened.
But the experienced guys know the truth and they collect it at lower cost then they wait patiently.
My point is this is panic selling....that is why experienced guys are collecting.

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